Group 1: Report Summary - Market focus includes China's central bank continuing a moderately loose monetary policy, the US GDP growth accelerating in 2026, the EU carbon tariff implementation increasing steel export costs, and no substantial impact on coal mines from market rumors [6] - Key data shows an increase in US initial jobless claims, a decline in Chinese steel mills' crude steel output and inventory in late December, and a rise in Tangshan billet prices [7] - In the first week of 2026, the steel price reached the upper limit of the range with limited further upside, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong and volatile [8] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bull - bear factors for rebar - Bullish factors are the improvement in December's manufacturing sentiment, the central bank's loose monetary policy, and enhanced cost support [11] - Bearish factors include seasonal decline in steel demand, inventory accumulation, increased steel production, and uncertain impact of export licenses [11] Bull - bear factors for iron ore - Bullish factors are the Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, an expanded CPI increase in November, and low steel mill inventories with restocking expectations [12] - Bearish factors are the continuous accumulation of port inventories, seasonal decline in hot metal production, and increased shipments in the current week [12] Group 3: Data Analysis Macroeconomic data - China's December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, and non - manufacturing business activity index returned to the expansion range [13] - China's CPI increase continued to expand in December, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed [17] - In the US, the manufacturing sentiment declined in December 2025, while the service industry was strong. Attention should be paid to the December non - farm payroll data [19] Rebar data - Rebar spot prices were stable, and the basis narrowed [21] - Steel mill profitability decreased slightly, with the profitability rate dropping to 37.66% [23] - The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates increased, with the blast furnace rate rising to 79.31% and the electric furnace rate to 72.97% [25] - Steel output continued to rise, with five types of building materials reaching 818.59 (+3.41) million tons [29] - Steel apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, with five types of building materials at 796.82 (-44.2) million tons [30] - Rebar inventory accumulated, with the total inventory reaching 438.11 (+16.08) million tons [34] Iron ore data - Iron ore spot prices rose, and the basis fluctuated narrowly [35] - In November, China's iron ore imports decreased, and the initial 2026 shipments also declined [39] - Iron ore arrivals increased in the week from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026 [40] - Hot metal production remained resilient, with an average daily output of 229.5 million tons [42] - Port inventories continued to accumulate as the port clearance volume decreased [46] - Steel mills' iron ore consumption and inventory increased simultaneously, with the inventory reaching 8989.59 million tons [48] Group 4: Market Outlook - For steel, the upward space is limited, and it will continue to operate within the range. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the impact of export licenses [51] - For iron ore, the short - term drivers are mostly positive, and it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The production of the five major steel products increased slightly week - on - week, consumption in the off - season continued to decline, and inventory increased seasonally. After the profit of rebar recovered, production continued to rise and inventory accumulated significantly. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar may be repaired in the short term. The macro - environment has a neutral impact. As the market enters the winter storage period, there will be an increase in demand. The futures market traded the winter storage logic in advance and rebounded, and the rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage [4]. - Iron ore: The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from last week and 51,300 tons from last year, increasing for the third consecutive week. It is expected to continue to rise. The iron ore shipment volume in December reached a record high, which will lead to a high arrival volume later, and the supply is expected to increase. After the end of market restocking and the arrival of a large number of shipments, there is still a risk of price correction [4]. - Trading strategy: Short - term operation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel and Iron Ore Market Performance - This week, steel and iron ore reached new highs and then declined [8]. Steel Products - Supply: The supply of the five major steel products this period was 8.1859 million tons, an increase of 73,800 tons week - on - week. Rebar production and inventory both increased, while hot - rolled coil production increased and inventory decreased. Currently, rebar production is still lower than the same period in previous years, hot - rolled coil is roughly the same as in previous years, and medium - thick plate is still higher than in previous years [14]. - Inventory: The social inventory of rebar this week was 4.6663 million tons, an increase of 113,100 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 558,400 tons month - on - month, an increase of 69,700 tons year - on - year (Gregorian calendar), and an increase of 211,500 tons year - on - year (lunar calendar) [14]. Iron Ore - Pig iron output: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from last week and 51,300 tons from last year. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 2.13 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from last week and 1.80 percentage points from last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and 12.99 percentage points from last year [18]. - Shipment and arrival: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.137 million tons, a decrease of 4.634 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 million tons, an increase of 969,000 tons week - on - week [18]. - Port inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, an increase of 3.2265 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3696 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons [18]. Important News - On January 5, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, and the person - in - charge of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the Ministry of Transport said that it would vigorously implement the renewal and digital and intelligent transformation of water transport infrastructure [5]. - According to data released by Clarksons on January 7, in 2025, the global cumulative new ship order volume was 2,036 vessels with 56.43 million compensated gross tons (CGT), a 27% decrease compared to 76.78 million CGT in 2024. Chinese shipyards received 1,421 orders with 35.37 million CGT, a 35% decrease year - on - year, ranking first globally with a market share of 63%; South Korean shipyards received 247 orders with 11.6 million CGT, an 8% increase year - on - year, ranking second with a market share of 21% [5]. - In 2025, mergers and acquisitions in the steel industry were frequent, and many enterprises optimized their layouts through equity acquisitions and asset swaps, and regional integration accelerated [6]. - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.3394 million square meters, a 20.3% decrease week - on - week and a 10.9% decrease year - on - year [6]. - The 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5th to 6th. The meeting emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, giving play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. It will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to deploy work on standardizing industrial competition order [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other 9 departments promoted green consumption of automobiles and supported consumers to purchase new energy vehicles [7].

中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，2026年开年后，多家北京、深圳地区银行个人经营贷年利率最低降至 2.35%。北京地区某股份行2026年1月1日起个人经营贷年利率下限下调了5BP，此前年利率最低为 2.40%。 同时，记者了解到，2025年12月，部分银行为冲击任务，经营贷年利率曾下探至2.20%以下，但目前基 本回调。未来，经营贷利率仍呈现下调趋势。 利率下调 北京地区一位股份行人士告诉记者，该行2025年经营贷年利率最低是2.40%，自2026年1月1日起，经营 贷利率进一步下调，最低降至2.35%，但要求是新户。从产品特点看，借款期限为5年期，可先息后 本，期限最多可延至10年，随借随还。从要求看，需要借款人或其亲属名下有公司运营，并且有北京、 上海地区的大产权房屋用作抵押。 上述福建地区银行人士表示，近年来个人经营贷利率始终处于下调趋势，一般LPR下降，经营贷利率就 会随之下降。 2025年12月，LPR报价维持不变。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，2026年一季度央行有可能实施新 一轮降息降准。这将带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下调，引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下行， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrated macroeconomic policies to enhance governance effectiveness and support sustainable economic growth in China [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Overview - Macroeconomic policies are crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and achieving high-quality development in China. The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in 2025 is highlighted as a key driver for economic recovery [2]. - The central economic work conference outlines that in 2026, macroeconomic policies will focus on stability and quality improvement, continuing to implement proactive policies while enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy aims to increase efficiency through targeted support for key projects and significant investment in basic research. In 2025, the fiscal deficit rate will be raised, and larger government bonds will be issued to support local governments and manage hidden debts [3]. - The article stresses the need for effective fiscal management, optimizing expenditure structures, and ensuring that public funds are used efficiently to support growth and social welfare [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - A flexible and effective monetary policy is essential, with measures such as timely interest rate cuts and targeted support for key sectors introduced in 2025 to create a conducive financial environment for economic recovery [5]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity and managing social financing costs to support economic growth and price stability [5]. Group 4: Policy Coordination - The article highlights the necessity of enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to avoid conflicts and ensure that various measures work synergistically [7]. - It calls for a systematic approach to policy evaluation, integrating economic and non-economic policies, and ensuring collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to achieve cohesive economic management [8].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Overview - The macroeconomic policy is crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and advancing high-quality development in China [1] - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for the first time in 14 years, which will significantly support economic recovery [1] - The 2026 macroeconomic policy will focus on stability and progress, enhancing quality and efficiency while integrating existing and new policies [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy in 2025 will increase the deficit ratio, issue larger government bonds, and enhance transfer payments to local governments to support growth and risk prevention [2] - There is a need to address local fiscal difficulties by establishing mechanisms for increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, ensuring the sustainability of fiscal policies [2] - The national public budget expenditure is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan in 2025, with 10.3 trillion yuan allocated for transfers to local governments [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2025 will include timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4] - The emphasis will be on maintaining liquidity and promoting low financing costs while addressing structural economic issues through targeted monetary tools [4] - A diverse toolbox of monetary policy instruments will be utilized to balance short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy while ensuring financial system health [4] Group 4: Policy Coordination and Effectiveness - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies relies on precise implementation and coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, as well as between various reform measures [5][6] - There is a need to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to avoid conflicts and ensure that policies work synergistically [5][6] - Strengthening the management of expectations and improving communication about economic policies will be essential for boosting social confidence [6]

本报北京1月8日电（记者徐佩玉）2026年中国人民银行工作会议近日召开，部署了2026年重点工作。会 议强调，中国人民银行要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务 实体经济高质量发展质效，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市 场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。 提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效。进一步完善金融"五篇大文章"政策框架，实施好考核评价制 度，加强金融服务效果评估，提升金融服务专业化精细化水平。完善结构性货币政策工具体系，优化工 具设计和管理，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。高质量建设和发展债 券市场"科技板"。用好服务消费与养老再贷款，推动加大服务消费领域信贷投放。优化支农支小再贷 款、再贴现管理，提升金融机构中小微企业金融服务能力。加强重点供应链融资信息服务平台监管。 稳妥化解重点领域金融风险。继续做好金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工作，稳妥有序推进融资平台退 出。推进重点地区和重点机构风险处置，强化中小金融机构风险识别和早期纠正。充分发挥中央银行宏 观审慎管理和维护 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [3]. - In 2025, over 50% of the social financing scale was from non-loan financing methods, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026, with growth rates surpassing the overall social financing growth [3]. - The PBOC aims to improve the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, ensuring that policy interest rates effectively influence various market rates, thereby stabilizing the comprehensive financing costs for society [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Market Development - The PBOC has introduced a "Technology Board" in the bond market to enhance financial support for technological innovation, with a cumulative issuance of 1.8 trillion yuan in technology innovation bonds by the end of 2025 [5]. - The "Technology Board" is designed to meet the financing needs of technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle, supporting both mature and early-stage companies through differentiated institutional arrangements [5]. - The PBOC will continue to develop the "Technology Board" to foster a financial market ecosystem that supports high-level self-reliance and strength in technology [5]. Group 3: Regional Financial Initiatives - The PBOC's Fujian branch will deepen the high-level opening of cross-border trade and investment, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and activating effective investment [6][8]. - The Fujian branch will also emphasize financial support for key areas such as technological innovation, private economy, green transformation, and urban-rural integration [7]. - The Guangdong branch will enhance financial services for the real economy, particularly in supporting domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [9][10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, aimed at maintaining market liquidity and ensuring stable financial operations at the year's end [1][6] - The reverse repurchase operation is expected to achieve net liquidity injection, counteracting the 1.1 trillion yuan of 3-month reverse repos maturing this month [1][3] - The PBOC's use of the reverse repurchase tool is part of a broader strategy to manage liquidity effectively, especially during critical periods such as year-end and cross-quarter transitions [2][6] Group 2 - The PBOC has been utilizing the reverse repurchase and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) since 2025 to provide medium to long-term liquidity [2][6] - The current financial market is relatively liquid, which is why the PBOC did not increase the amount in the latest reverse repurchase operation, indicating that liquidity support remains robust [3][7] - Analysts expect that the PBOC will conduct additional operations, including a 6-month reverse repurchase and MLF operations, to further support liquidity in the market [3][7] Group 3 - The PBOC's 2026 work meeting emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on enhancing macro policy effectiveness and supporting high-quality economic development [4][9] - The central bank aims to maintain a stable liquidity environment to support economic growth and financial market stability, leveraging a comprehensive set of liquidity management tools [4][9] - The PBOC plans to use various monetary policy tools flexibly to ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price stability targets [5][9]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined seven key priorities for 2026, focusing on monetary policy implementation, financial services for the real economy, risk prevention, and financial reform and opening-up [3] - The monetary policy for 2026 will be moderately accommodative, aiming to promote high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [4][5] - The PBOC aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level while preventing excessive fluctuations, with a supportive external environment expected for the RMB's moderate appreciation in 2026 [6][7] Group 2 - The PBOC's accommodative monetary policy will have two main directions: total policy and structural policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and financing conditions are relatively loose [4] - Structural policies will focus on targeted support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, with an increase in the overall quota of structural monetary policy tools [5] - The PBOC is exploring mechanisms to provide liquidity support to non-bank financial institutions in specific scenarios to mitigate financial risks, reflecting a proactive approach to financial stability [8][9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on enhancing both incremental and stock policies to support economic recovery and stabilize prices [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The meeting emphasized the importance of promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [2][3]. - The PBOC aims to ensure that social financing conditions remain relatively loose, guiding reasonable growth in total financing and balanced credit allocation, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2][3]. Financial Resource Allocation - The meeting highlighted the need to optimize the financial policy framework to focus resources on key areas, particularly through structural tools and market innovations, with a notable emphasis on the development of the "technology board" in the bond market [4]. - In 2025, over 700 entities issued technology innovation bonds through this platform, with a total scale exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, addressing financing challenges for technology enterprises [4]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC will continue to enhance the "precision drip irrigation" effect of structural monetary policy tools, optimizing tool design and management to increase credit support for consumption and small and micro enterprises [4][6]. - It is anticipated that structural tools will see an "increase in quantity and decrease in price" trend in 2026, with steady increases in quotas and reductions in operational interest rates, aiding in the transition of old and new growth drivers [4]. Supply Chain Financing - The meeting underscored the importance of strengthening regulatory oversight of key supply chain financing information service platforms to ensure smooth funding flows while preventing risks associated with false trade [6]. - The financial work in 2026 is expected to support multiple missions, including stabilizing growth, adjusting structures, preventing risks, and promoting openness, reflecting a commitment to high-quality financial development [6].