Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The palm oil market lacks strong upward drivers from the producing regions. There are concerns about Indonesia's inventory accumulation, and the market may continue to fluctuate until the end of the year. Further price movements depend on the B50 story and production issues [2][4][5] - The soybean oil market is affected by factors such as the SRE allocation, RVO policy, and Sino - US trade relations. The price mainly follows the trends of crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. The opening of the market next week is expected to be volatile due to Trump's tariff increase on China [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: During the long holiday, the B50 news from Indonesia stimulated a rebound in the palm oil market, but there was no actual tightening signal in the supply side of the producing regions. The MPOB report showed an unexpected inventory build - up, halting the upward trend. The palm oil 01 contract rose 2.28% last week [1] - Soybean oil: During the holiday, US soybeans and US soybean oil showed a slight rebound. With the accelerating progress of US soybean harvesting and Brazilian sowing, soybean oil lacked an independent driver and mainly fluctuated with the oil and fat sector. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 1.99% last week. Trump's tough stance on China's trade on Friday night may affect the market opening next week [1] This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - Producing regions: The MPOB report confirmed the inventory pressure in Malaysia in September, and the narrowing spread between UCO FOB and CPO FOB in Malaysia since September indicated a return to normal domestic consumption. However, the potential export tax on UCO and POME in Malaysia has an uncertain impact. In Indonesia, the inventory is expected to be in the range of 200 - 300 million tons in the third quarter, and the annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. The narrowing Indo - Malaysian price spread and concerns about Indonesia's inventory accumulation make it difficult to find strong short - term drivers [2] - Consumption regions: The import profit of crude sunflower oil in India is better than that of CPO, and there is no strong expectation for India's future demand. The European HVO profit is high, but relying solely on European biodiesel demand to be bullish on the oil market is a pessimistic view. The market may continue to fluctuate until the end of the year, and the price movement depends on the B50 story and production issues [2][4][5] Soybean oil - International market: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined, and there is a high pressure of inventory build - up by the end of the year. The implementation of relevant policies may be postponed to next year, and the price mainly follows the trends of crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices [2][4] - Domestic market: The export demand may lead to continuous inventory reduction in the domestic soybean oil market until March next year. The market is affected by Sino - US trade relations, and the opening next week is expected to be volatile [4][5] Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main contract: The opening price was 9,452 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,438 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.70%. The trading volume was 1,242,800 lots, and the open interest increased by 35,596 lots [7] - Soybean oil main contract: The opening price was 8,212 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,302 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.32%. The trading volume was 842,968 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,070 lots [7] - Other data: Included price differences such as the vegetable - soybean 01 spread, soybean - palm 01 spread, and inventory data of different oils [7] Core Fundamental Data of Oils - Malaysia: The palm oil production in Malaysia may enter the off - season earlier, and the inventory in September may reach an inflection point. The export volume from October 1 - 10 was 523,602 tons, a 9.86% increase compared to the same period last month [9][10][11] - Indonesia: The inventory in Indonesia is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter, and the Indo - Malaysian price spread is rapidly declining [11] - Other aspects: Included data on fruit bunch prices in North Sumatra, refining profits in Indonesia, POGO spreads, rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesia, import profits and CNF spreads in India, and EU's import volume of palm oil and four major oils [11][12][13]

商务部发言人表示，如果美方一意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 美东时间10月10日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征100%关税， 并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。 对此，10月12日，商务部网站发表《商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问》， 在其中商务部新闻发言人表示，动辄以高额关税进行威胁，不是与中方相处的正确之道。对于关税战， 中方的立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕打。 商务部新闻发言人表示，中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，维护好来 之不易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商基础上，通过对话解决各 自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。 商务部新闻发言人表示，如果美方一意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 商务部新闻发言人表示，后续，中国政府将依法依规开展许可审查，对符合规定的申请予以许可，同 时，积极考虑适用通用许可、许可豁免等多种便利化措施，有效促进合规贸易。我想强调的是，中国的 出口管制不是禁止出口，只要是用于民用用途的、合规的出口申请 ...

答：中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制 体系的正当做法。当前世界局势动荡不安，军事冲突时有发生，中方注意到中重稀土相关物项在军事领 域有重要应用。中国是负责任大国，依法对相关物项实施出口管制，目的是更好维护世界和平与地区稳 定，履行防扩散等国际义务。 中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。在措施公布前，中方已通过双边出口管 制对话机制向各有关国家和地区作了通报。中方愿与各国加强出口管制对话交流，更好维护全球产业链 供应链安全稳定。 智通财经10月12日讯，商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问。 1、有记者问：10月9日，商务部、海关总署发布公告，对相关稀土物项实施出口管制。请问中方有什么 考虑？ 特别是9月中美马德里经贸会谈以来，短短20多天时间，美方持续新增出台一系列对华限制措施，将多 家中国实体列入出口管制实体清单和特别指定国民清单；通过穿透性规则任意扩大受管制企业范围，影 响中方数千家企业；无视中方关切和善意，执意落地对华海事、物流和造船业301措施。美方的行为严 重损害中方利益，严重破坏双方经贸会谈氛围，中方对此坚 ...

Core Insights - The trade relationship between the US and Vietnam has become increasingly complicated, with Vietnam attempting to benefit from US tariffs on China but ultimately facing negative consequences [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - A trade agreement was reached on July 2, 2025, imposing a 20% tariff on US exports to Vietnam while exempting Vietnamese exports to the US from tariffs [3]. - Vietnam will impose a 40% tariff on goods suspected of being transshipped from China to the US, significantly impacting its export economy [3][4]. - Prior to the agreement, Vietnam had a trade surplus of over $40 billion with the US, with approximately 30% of this surplus derived from transshipped Chinese goods [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact on Vietnam - The agreement is expected to severely disrupt Vietnam's supply chains, forcing a reevaluation of logistics and increasing operational costs for local businesses [4][6]. - Vietnamese manufacturers are experiencing a decline in orders as the new tariffs lead to a reduction in the flow of Chinese components and raw materials [6][9]. - Following the agreement, Vietnam's border trade with the US has decreased by 15%, and many factories are operating at only 80% capacity [9][11]. Group 3: US-China Relations and Strategic Shifts - Shortly after the agreement, the US made concessions to China by lifting restrictions on ethane exports and semiconductor design software, indicating a shift in US policy [6][7]. - The concessions suggest that the US is reassessing its trade strategies, which may undermine Vietnam's position as a middleman in US-China trade [7][9]. - The evolving dynamics highlight Vietnam's loss of strategic leverage, as its reliance on transshipment trade is diminishing [9][11]. Group 4: Regional Comparisons - Other countries like Japan, South Korea, and India are adopting more cautious approaches to US trade policies, focusing on maintaining their own economic interests [11]. - The future of Vietnam's economy may depend on its ability to repair relations with China amidst the shifting landscape of US-China trade relations [11].

Core Viewpoint - The seminar focused on the fluctuations of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate and the expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies, highlighting the interplay between U.S.-China economic relations and currency movements [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since April 2022, the RMB has been under pressure, depreciating from around 6.3 to below 7.3, with a stabilization around 7.3 in the second half of 2023 [4][5]. - The depreciation of the RMB post-2022 is attributed to the divergence in economic cycles and monetary policies between China and the U.S., leading to a negative interest rate differential [5][6]. - The RMB's exchange rate is not significantly deviating from its equilibrium level, with both upward and downward factors present, suggesting a need for a risk-neutral market approach [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB's Strength - The RMB's recent strength against the dollar is driven by the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, improvements in the Chinese economy, and a thawing in U.S.-China trade relations [3][9]. - Historical context shows that during Trump's first term, tariffs led to a depreciation of the RMB, but the current environment suggests a potential for appreciation due to various factors, including market sentiment and economic recovery [10][12]. - The RMB's appreciation is also supported by the Chinese government's proactive measures to mitigate external shocks and improve economic conditions [19][20]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue with two more rate cuts in 2025, with the nature of these cuts being crucial for the dollar's performance [22][24]. - The Fed's independence is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which could impact its policy decisions and market perceptions [25][27]. - The Fed's dual mandate of managing employment and inflation is becoming increasingly complex, with rising inflation and a weakening labor market posing challenges [26][28]. Group 4: Implications for the Dollar and Global Markets - The weakening of the dollar is influenced by Trump's policies, which disrupt traditional economic cycles and could lead to a rebalancing of global assets favoring non-U.S. assets [32][33]. - The current environment suggests that the RMB may benefit from a weaker dollar, especially if U.S.-China trade relations stabilize and economic conditions improve in China [38][39].

达利欧表示，改革开放以来，中国取得巨大发展成就，经济改革稳步推进，其将继续致力推动深化美中 经贸合作。 （文章来源：第一财经） 据财政部官网消息，财政部副部长廖岷于24日在京会见美国桥水基金创始人达利欧，就中美宏观经济形 势、中美经贸关系等问题进行交流。 廖岷表示，今年以来，在中美元首通话重要共识指引下，双方本着平等、尊重、互惠的精神，开展了四 轮经贸会谈，达成了一系列共识成果，受到两国企业民众的广泛欢迎。希望美方与中方相向而行，继续 通过对话沟通解决经贸分歧，共同推动中美经贸关系健康稳定发展。中国坚定不移扩大高水平对外开 放，经济运行稳中向好，增长潜力不断释放，欢迎美商界继续投资中国，共享发展机遇。廖岷还应询介 绍了中国财政支持扩大内需、促进消费有关情况。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng emphasizes the importance of stable Sino-U.S. relations, highlighting mutual interests and cooperation opportunities despite existing differences [2] Group 1: Sino-U.S. Relations - The current state of Sino-U.S. relations is described as generally stable, guided by the strategic leadership of the two countries' leaders [2] - There is a recognition of broad common interests and extensive cooperation potential between China and the U.S. [2] - The ambassador stresses the necessity of respecting each other's core interests and significant concerns, particularly regarding social systems and development paths [2] Group 2: Taiwan Issue - The ambassador reiterates that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China's territory, marking the 80th anniversary of Taiwan's return to China as a significant historical event [2] - He calls for the U.S. to respect this fact and cease spreading the notion of "uncertain status of Taiwan" [2] Group 3: Economic Relations - The essence of Sino-U.S. economic relations is characterized as mutually beneficial, with the ambassador stating that trade wars yield no winners [2] - He advocates for equality, respect, and reciprocity as effective means to address issues between the two nations [2] Group 4: Future Cooperation - The ambassador expresses hope for the U.S. to take practical actions to align with China, emphasizing the importance of implementing the leaders' consensus [2] - He calls for adherence to the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation to enhance understanding and strengthen collaboration [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the shift in China's soybean import strategy, moving from the U.S. to South America, particularly Argentina and Brazil, following the cancellation of Argentina's soybean export tax [1][5][13] - The U.S. soybean industry, heavily reliant on China as a key market, faces significant challenges as China diversifies its suppliers, leading to a potential decline in U.S. agricultural income [3][9][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2023, one in four soybeans exported from the U.S. went to China, with the trade value exceeding $10 billion [3] - China's recent contracts for 650,000 tons of South American soybeans signal a strategic pivot, occurring just after Argentina's policy change [1][5] - The U.S. soybean prices are projected to drop by 40% by 2025 compared to two years prior, exacerbating the financial strain on American farmers [7] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The U.S. soybean price is approximately 20% higher than Brazilian soybeans due to a 25% punitive tariff, impacting competitiveness [7][11] - Brazil's logistical advantages, including shorter shipping times and efficient supply chains, have made it a more attractive supplier for China [7][9] - The article emphasizes that market choices are driven by price, quality, and logistics rather than political rhetoric, highlighting a shift in purchasing behavior [9][11] Group 3: Implications for U.S. Agriculture - The article suggests that U.S. farmers are facing a crisis as their traditional market in China is being eroded by competitive alternatives [7][13] - The political pressure from U.S. leaders, including former President Trump, may not effectively influence China's market decisions, which are based on economic realities [9][11] - The need for the U.S. to adapt to market dynamics and recognize the importance of competitive pricing and quality in regaining access to the Chinese market is underscored [11][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the U.S. should take proactive measures to eliminate unreasonable tariffs on soybean trade to create conditions for expanding bilateral trade [1] - The spokesperson highlighted that the vitality of China-U.S. relations lies at the local level, with state and provincial economic cooperation being an essential part of the overall economic relationship [1] - The current major obstacle affecting normal economic cooperation between China and the U.S. is unilateral restrictions imposed by the U.S., and there is a call for both sides to work towards creating favorable conditions for stable and sustainable development of their economic relationship [1] Group 2 - There is an ongoing negotiation regarding China purchasing more Boeing airplanes, which is reportedly in its final stages [1] - The essence of China-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit, with both countries having extensive common interests and broad cooperation space in the economic field [1]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of China-U.S. economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, with significant common interests and broad cooperation space between the two countries [1] Group 1: Economic Cooperation - The biggest obstacle affecting normal economic and trade cooperation between China and the U.S. is the unilateral restrictive measures imposed by the U.S. [1] - There is a call for the U.S. to engage with China to create favorable conditions for the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [1]