清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩： 我国降准、降息尚有一定空间 "十五五"后，我国货币政策有哪些发力空间？田轩表示，步入"十五五"，中国货币政策在"稳增长、调 结构、促改革、防风险、惠民生"总体框架下有多重发力空间，可从多个维度展开。首先，总量调控工 具精准化运用。在"适度宽松"基调下，根据经济修复节奏和通胀水平，灵活运用降准、公开市场操作等 工具，保持流动性合理充裕。我国降息尚有一定空间，能降低金融机构资金成本、引导实体融资利率下 行，还能为银行体系提供长期资金。 其次，结构性工具深度与广度拓展。在现有基础上，聚焦国家重大战略和薄弱环节，如加大对科技创新 等领域定向支持，通过提高额度等方式增强政策直达性和精准性，探索将新兴产业和重点项目纳入支持 范围。 此外，跨周期与逆周期调节协同强化。"十五五"需平衡中长期目标与短期波动，货币政策要增强前瞻性 和灵活性，立足当前逆周期调节，着眼长远跨周期设计，营造平稳货币金融环境。 同时，为激励商业银行信贷投放、避免资金"空转"，田轩建议，明年人民银行可升级现有结构性工具， 强化激励约束与精准滴灌：提高对科技型中小企业等信贷支持，按"硬科技"指 ...

还有常被忽视的一点：人民币国际化稳步推进。现在更多国家愿意用人民币结算贸易，各国央行也将人 民币纳入外汇储备。这种"用脚投票"的市场选择，逐渐改变了美元独大的旧格局，给了人民币长期升值 的潜力。 不过，人民币走强对普通人的影响是双面的。好处很明显——留学、海淘、出国游更划算，企业进口原 材料成本降低。但也要看到，出口企业会面临价格压力，可能影响部分行业就业。汇率从来都是双刃 剑，关键在动态平衡。 展望未来，人民币汇率大概率会保持双向波动，既不会单边大涨，也不会断崖下跌。因为决策者更看 重"稳"而不是"强"，适度波动有利于经济转型。对咱们普通人而言，与其猜测汇率涨跌，不如想想如何 利用这种变化——比如在汇率合适时配置些海外资产，或关注进口商品消费机会。 最近，不少朋友发现人民币越来越"硬气"了——出国旅游换汇时能多换点美元，海淘时感觉外国商品变 相打了折。这背后可不是运气，而是实打实的市场变化。今天咱们就聊聊，人民币为啥悄然走强了。 首先，中国经济基本面的支撑是关键。你看，尽管外部环境复杂，但咱们的产业链完整、内需市场庞 大，这就像给人民币装上了"稳定器"。当其他国家为通胀发愁时，咱们的物价整体平稳，让人民币资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, highlighting the factors driving this trend and the outlook for the currency in 2026, emphasizing the importance of external and internal economic conditions [2][3][7]. Group 1: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two forces: the weakening of USD credit and the Federal Reserve's easing policies [3]. - A significant factor supporting the RMB's appreciation is the shift in foreign trade enterprises' willingness to convert their earnings, reversing a three-year trend of reluctance to do so [3]. - The recent capital inflow, particularly after the Fed announced a new easing cycle, has been largely attributed to foreign trade enterprises' increased currency conversion activities [3]. Group 2: Central Bank's Management of Cross-Border Liquidity - The central bank has effectively managed cross-border liquidity by lowering swap market premiums to control the pace of foreign capital inflow and guiding domestic expectations through the midpoint rate [4]. - The goal is to align domestic and foreign pricing with the central bank's expectations, achieving a "three-price unification" [4]. Group 3: Changes in RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since April, the negative spread between the RMB midpoint and spot exchange rates has been notable, indicating that the midpoint has been guiding the appreciation of the spot rate [5]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased currency conversion by foreign trade enterprises and overseas workers sending money home before the Lunar New Year, are expected to support the RMB's strength [5]. - The recent shift from a negative to a positive spread between the midpoint and spot rates may reflect adjustments in the central bank's stance [6]. Group 4: Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate in 2026 - The RMB is expected to appreciate gradually in 2026, influenced by the restructuring of the international monetary system and the U.S. government's preference for a weaker dollar [8]. - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. is likely to support the RMB, as the Fed continues its easing cycle [8]. - Increased internationalization of the RMB, supported by China's competitive manufacturing sector, is anticipated to enhance the currency's attractiveness and stability [8]. Group 5: External Factors and Uncertainties - The impact of U.S.-China tariffs on the RMB is expected to diminish as both economies show resilience under trade pressures [9]. - However, uncertainties remain, including domestic economic stability and external trade relations, which could affect the RMB's performance [12]. - The potential for further depreciation of the USD, driven by the Fed's policies and economic conditions, may also influence the RMB's trajectory [11].

图源：中国外汇交易中心网站截图 12月19日人民币对美元中间价报7.0550 上调33个基点 中新网12月19日电 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年 12月19日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元对人民币7.0550元，上调33个基点。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月19日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为： 1美元对人民币7.0550元，1欧元对人民币8.2616元，100日元对人民币4.5274元，1港元对人民币0.90675 元，1英镑对人民币9.4267元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6578元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0655元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4639元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8700元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1131元，人民币1元对1.1365 澳门元，人民币1元对0.57946马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3508俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3739南 非兰特，人民币1元对209.46韩元，人民币1元对0.52147阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53250沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.9184匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50874波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9047丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3174瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4419挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.07374土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5529墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4624泰铢。 (责任编辑：华青剑) 中国经济网北京12月19日 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook for 2026 - In 2026, China's economic policies will focus on releasing consumption potential, particularly in service consumption, durable goods renewal, and new consumption scenarios [1][4] - The core contradiction restricting consumer spending is the cautious expectations under medium to long-term uncertainties, rather than just insufficient current income [5] - The monetary policy is expected to shift from total easing to structural optimization, with the People's Bank of China likely to implement more targeted measures to guide funds to key sectors of the economy [6] Group 2: Currency and Debt Market Insights - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by trade surplus resilience and improved capital flow structure, despite uncertainties from US-China interest rate differentials and geopolitical factors [7] - Long-term bond yields are anticipated to experience a phase of decline in 2026, influenced by fiscal expansion and the central bank's supportive monetary policy, although short-term market disturbances may persist [8] Group 3: Internal and External Economic Strategies - Strengthening "internal circulation" does not imply weakening external openness; instead, it aims to enhance the economy's autonomy and resilience [10] - Coordinated efforts between expanding domestic demand and promoting high-level institutional openness are essential for stabilizing foreign trade and investment expectations while responding to external shocks [10]

中央经济工作会议强调，2026年我国将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推 动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 消费活力如何进一步激发？货币政策有何发力空间？人民币汇率怎么走？这些都是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，也是监管的必答题。围 绕上述问题，北京商报记者专访了广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平。 2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 全球经济在波动中前行，中国金融市场在多重政策合力下展现出新的韧性与活力。人民银行延续流动性宽松的基调，通过降准、降息等工具为 经济修复提供支持，货币政策与财政政策协调配合，金融"五篇大文章"系统推进，一系列举措旨在打通经济循环、激发内需潜力、优化金融供 给。 2026年我国将扩大优质消费品和服务供给，培育壮大新的消费增长点，积极打造消费新场景，把扩大消费与因地制宜发展新质生产力结合起 来。一是深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。优化"两新"政策实施，"国补"额度有望在2025年基础上适度 ...

（来源：船务资讯） 来源：市场资讯 近期外汇市场上，人民币对美元汇率表现强势，呈现持续升值态势。12月16日，在岸与离岸人民币对美 元汇率双双走强，均突破7.05关口。其中，离岸人民币汇率盘中最高升至7.0358，在岸人民币汇率盘中 最高触及7.0417，两者均创下自2024年10月8日以来的新高，市场关注点逐渐聚焦于人民币能否进一步 逼近乃至突破"7.0"这一重要心理关口。 近期走强的主要原因 政策层面的引导也为汇率稳健运行奠定了基础。市场观察到，尽管人民币市场汇率快速上升，但央行每 日设定的人民币中间价调整幅度相对温和。这表明当前政策方向旨在维持汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本 稳定，允许市场力量驱动人民币适度升值，同时避免形成单边的升值或贬值预期。从全年整体表现来 看，人民币汇率走出了渐进升值的轨迹，截至12月15日，离岸人民币年内累计升值幅度约为4%。 市场关注点与短期展望 随着人民币汇率不断接近"7.0"关口，市场对其后续走势讨论热烈。综合机构观点来看，在年底结汇需 求支撑、美元偏弱以及稳健的汇率政策共同作用下，人民币短期内大概率将维持偏强运行格局。存在观 点认为，在季节性因素影响下，汇率阶段性突破"7. ...

中国经济网北京12月18日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.0583，较前一交易日调贬10个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月18日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为： 1美元对人民币7.0583元，1欧元对人民币8.2759元，100日元对人民币4.5299元，1港元对人民币0.90736 元，1英镑对人民币9.4251元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6525元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0645元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4597元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8612元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1126元，人民币1元对1.1357 澳门元，人民币1元对0.58001马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.4148俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3789南 非兰特，人民币1元对209.42韩元，人民币1元对0.52120阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53229沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.9909匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50895波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9030丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3199瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4480挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.06 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to multiple internal and external factors, including expectations of a US interest rate cut and seasonal demand for currency exchange among export enterprises [2][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange and Market Dynamics - Dongguan Xile Toy Co., Ltd. has reduced its USD holdings and is quickly converting USD to RMB after export transactions due to expectations of a weaker USD [2]. - On December 17, the RMB's central parity rate against the USD was reported at 7.0573, an increase of 29 basis points from the previous trading day [2]. - The RMB's onshore and offshore rates reached new highs since October 2024, with the onshore rate peaking at 7.0413 and the offshore rate at 7.03724 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has placed downward pressure on the USD index, providing support for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [3]. - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are showing positive effects, enhancing confidence in Chinese assets and stabilizing cross-border capital flows [3]. - Seasonal increases in foreign trade enterprises' demand for currency exchange have also contributed to the short-term rise in RMB demand [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook on RMB Exchange Rate - Analysts predict that the RMB may continue to appreciate against the USD, with potential for the exchange rate to temporarily exceed 7 due to seasonal demand [4]. - By 2026, the RMB's exchange rate is expected to exhibit two-way fluctuations while maintaining overall stability, with a projected central rate increase of 2%-3% compared to 2025 [4]. - Companies are advised to adopt strategies that lock in exchange rates while allowing for potential gains from RMB appreciation and fluctuations [4].