Core Insights - The US jobs market added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding analysts' expectations of 51,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.4%, marking the highest level since 2021 [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down previous job growth estimates for July and August, indicating a decline in the US workforce [2][3] Job Market Data - The BLS now estimates that the US economy added 72,000 jobs in July, down from a previous estimate of 79,000, and lost 4,000 jobs in August, a revision from an initial growth estimate of 22,000 [3] - The official jobs report for October will not be released due to the federal government shutdown, with data for October to be published alongside the November report in mid-December [4] Economic Commentary - Nancy Vanden Houten from Oxford Economics stated that the September jobs report provides reassurance that the labor market was stable prior to the government shutdown, and does not necessitate a change in the Federal Reserve's interest rate forecast [5] - Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the delay in releasing the October jobs report, highlighting the increase in the unemployment rate and a record number of layoffs since the current administration took office [6]

Group 1 - The current AI wave is driven by the stock market, characterized by ample funding but volatile stock prices, leading to investor impatience regarding profit realization [1][5] - Concerns over excessive investment in AI have intensified, with major AI companies experiencing stock price fluctuations, particularly after a significant fund liquidated its holdings in a leading chip company [1][3] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed a cautious stance on further interest rate cuts, with a notable statement from Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggesting that maintaining current rates may be more appropriate for the time being [1][2] Group 2 - The swap market's expectations for a December rate cut have shifted from nearly certain to a 50-50 probability, indicating increased uncertainty regarding future financing costs [2] - There is a growing skepticism among investors and analysts regarding the astronomical levels of infrastructure investment in the AI sector, with estimates suggesting a total investment of $5 trillion in AI and related industries by 2030 [3][4] - The rapid iteration of AI chip investments poses challenges for tech companies, as the depreciation period of 8-10 years may not align with the fast-paced technological advancements, potentially affecting future profitability [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in copper prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The ISM data for October indicates a continued cooling of inflation in the U.S. [1] - Unexpected rebound in ADP employment figures has created a divergence in economic data, increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The uncertainty surrounding future interest rate paths remains significant [1] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - Previous high prices have led to an accumulation of inventory in the market, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of copper [1] - Slow recovery in consumption is evident, with demand being significantly suppressed by high prices [1] - The limited macroeconomic stimulus on prices suggests that the fundamental recovery for copper remains unsatisfactory, indicating a potential for continued weakness in copper price levels [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook emphasizes the importance of timely action and the use of the latest real-time data for the interest rate decision in December [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the critical nature of real-time data in making informed decisions regarding interest rates [1]

今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.11美元/盎司，最低触及3962.33美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 所幸的是，下周将有大量美国私营部门数据公布。其中，以往常被忽视的JOLTS职位空缺和Challenger 裁员数据此次将受到应有的重视。不过，市场的目光无疑会聚焦于两份ISM调查以及ADP就业报告上。 若下周公布的一系列数据表现疲软，将重新点燃市场对12月降息的预期。这些数据将比以往更受密切关 注，以便从中探寻劳动力市场的健康状况以及通胀压力的迹象。 市场预期10月ISM制造业指数有望重返50荣枯线之上，这可能是自2025年2月以来的首次扩张。五大地 区联储调查中已有四份显示制造业有所改善。服务业方面，预计ISM指数将小幅扩张至50.4，但由于政 府停摆的影响，该指数跌入收缩区间的风险显著增加。 摘要今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新 报3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's accelerated process of selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair, aiming to finalize the choice by the end of the year, which could allow the White House to influence monetary policy ahead of the new chair's official term starting in May [3][4]. Candidate Selection - Trump is currently choosing from five final candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. The candidates include current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [3][5]. - Hassett and Warsh are viewed as frontrunners due to their close relationships with Trump, which is seen as a key factor in winning the nomination [5][6]. Implications of Early Appointment - The potential new chair is likely to fill the seat currently held by Stephen Miran, whose term ends in January. This allows the new chair to participate in the March and April rate-setting meetings before officially taking office [4][7]. - Early appointment could enable the new chair to influence investor expectations regarding interest rate paths, but it may also create awkward situations for the successor, who might have to publicly challenge decisions made by their future colleagues [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has confirmed a shortlist of five candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with the selection process being closely monitored by investors and Fed observers as Powell's term ends in May 2024 [1] Candidate Summaries - **Kevin Hassett**: Currently the Director of the White House National Economic Council and a close ally of Trump, Hassett has criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates sufficiently and has echoed concerns about the Fed's independence [2] - **Chris Waller**: A Federal Reserve Governor since 2020, Waller is known for advocating central bank independence and has recently called for interest rate cuts, warning of a weakening labor market [3] - **Michelle Bowman**: Serving as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed, Bowman has pushed for easing capital rules for large banks and was among the first to support interest rate cuts this year [4] - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed Governor, Warsh has publicly criticized the Fed's operations and called for systemic reforms, advocating for a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to create room for rate cuts [5][6] - **Rick Rieder**: A senior executive at BlackRock, Rieder has suggested that the Fed should implement larger rate cuts and emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence while advocating for more innovative approaches [7]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve officials are divided on how concerned they should be about the U.S. labor market as they prepare for an upcoming meeting on interest rates [1] Group 1 - The division among Federal Reserve officials indicates differing perspectives on the strength and stability of the labor market [1] - The upcoming meeting in 10 days will focus on interest rate decisions, which are influenced by labor market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is creating a "blind" situation for policymakers at a critical moment for the economy, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates due to a lack of updated economic data [1] Impact on Economic Data Collection - The government shutdown is significantly affecting the collection of key economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has lost approximately one-third of the October price data due to the shutdown, which could lead to a decline in data quality over time [2][3] - Other economic indicators, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, will also be impacted, although some data sources like retail sales may be less affected [2] Historical Context - This shutdown marks the 15th federal government shutdown since 1981, with previous shutdowns causing delays in important economic reports [4] - Historical examples include the 1995-1996 shutdown, which delayed the employment report by two weeks, and the 2013 shutdown, which also caused significant delays in various economic data releases [5] Alternative Data Sources - In the absence of government data, private sector economic data is becoming increasingly important as a supplement [6] - Private institutions like ADP Research and Indeed provide alternative employment and job vacancy data, while financial institutions like Carlyle Group and Bank of America offer labor market updates [6][7] - Although these private indicators cannot fully replace the authority of official reports, they can help fill the data void and provide decision-making references for market participants [7] Federal Reserve's Decision-Making Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in making interest rate decisions due to a slowdown in the labor market and inflationary pressures from tariffs [8] - The upcoming CPI report is critical for policy decisions, but the risk of further delays due to the shutdown complicates the situation [8] - The Fed is also considering alternative indicators from the private sector and local governments to inform their decisions, but the overall decrease in data availability is expected to increase the difficulty of their work [8]

Key Insights - The current federal government shutdown lacks a debt ceiling component, which reduces immediate risks compared to past shutdowns [6][7] - Economic data releases are delayed or postponed, impacting market navigation and decision-making for investors [6][8] - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to operate normally without concerns over redemptions or new issuances due to the increased debt ceiling [7][8] Economic Data - Major economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are likely to be delayed if the shutdown continues [6][8] - Investors may need to rely on alternative private data sources, such as ISM and S&P Global PMI, until official data is released [13] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates during the current FOMC meeting despite the shutdown, maintaining a focus on risk management [13] - The UST 10-Year yield is anticipated to remain stable until economic data resumes [13]