Group 1 - Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence and insists that any interest rate decisions should be based on consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) grounded in facts and data [1] - Hassett addresses concerns regarding potential political influence on monetary policy, stating that he would only consider President Trump's suggestions for rate cuts if they are supported by sufficient economic rationale and his own agreement before presenting them to the FOMC for collective review [1] - The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the Trump administration is in the final stages of selecting a successor, with Hassett being a core candidate who reiterates the Fed's focus on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment [1] Group 2 - Hassett praises another main competitor, Kevin Warsh, highlighting his extensive experience and suggesting that the President has good options among the candidates [2] - Market predictions regarding the final candidate have fluctuated, with Kalshi platform data indicating that as of mid-December, Warsh has a nomination probability of approximately 46%, while Hassett's probability is around 39%, indicating a narrowing lead for Hassett [2] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that the final decision on the Fed Chair is expected to be announced in early January 2026 [2]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a modest decline as investors reacted to a mixed November jobs report, with the Dow falling 40 points to 48,375 and the S&P 500 easing to 6,805, reflecting pressure on technology and growth stocks [1][14] - The delayed November nonfarm payrolls report indicated the U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs, surpassing Bloomberg estimates of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, suggesting underlying weaknesses in the job market [2][14] Labor Market Insights - The rise in unemployment, despite job gains, raised concerns about economic momentum, with analysts noting that the labor market may be entering a "hiring recession" [3][13] - The Labor Department reported that unemployment increased due to higher labor force participation and effects from a recent government shutdown, with October payrolls revised to show a loss of 105,000 jobs [5][6] - The number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons rose to 5.5 million, an increase of 909,000 from September, while long-term unemployment stood at 24.3%, indicating persistent challenges in the job market [6][13] Federal Reserve Outlook - The jobs report is critical as it sets the stage for upcoming consumer inflation data, which will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate decision in January [6][14] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for substantial data before making policy adjustments, with markets divided on whether the central bank will consider rate cuts in early 2026 or maintain a cautious approach [7][14] Stock Performance - Among notable stock movements, Tesla (TSLA) fell over 1%, impacting the Nasdaq, while Nvidia (NVDA) remained steady near $176 after a strong performance in AI-related shares [8][15] - Ford (F) shares rose about 1% following the announcement of a $19.5 billion charge related to its strategic shift away from electric vehicles [8][14] - Smaller-cap stocks like AMC Robotics, Rezolve AI, and Biodexa Pharmaceuticals saw significant movements, indicating ongoing risk appetite in select speculative names despite broader market caution [9][12]

Group 1 - The market is closely watching the upcoming interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan, with a potential increase to 0.75% marking a significant shift from the low-cost yen funding era [1][3] - Historical trends show a clear correlation between yen exchange rate changes and Bitcoin prices, with a stronger yen typically indicating rising global funding costs and tightening liquidity, which tends to pressure Bitcoin as a high liquidity-sensitive asset [1][3] - The long-standing low interest rate environment in Japan has provided stable "funding currency" for global capital; an increase in rates may reduce the attractiveness of borrowing yen for high-risk asset allocation, potentially leading to reduced leverage or position adjustments in the stock market, which could impact crypto assets [1][4] Group 2 - The current strong yen is already imposing certain constraints on market sentiment [1][3] - The recent interest rate hike may not replicate past shock patterns, as market expectations have already been reflected in positioning, limiting the potential for panic selling in the short term [4] - The U.S. monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, mitigating some of the tightening effects from Japan, and the probability of severe risk clearing before year-end is relatively controlled, although Bitcoin cannot completely ignore external rate shocks [2][4] - Future market dynamics will require close monitoring of fiscal and inflation expectations against a backdrop of high debt; any doubts about long-term stability could enhance the interlinkages between exchange rates, bond yields, and risk assets, significantly affecting crypto market volatility [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 75.6% [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Projections - By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 40.4%, with a 52% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 7.6% probability of a total cut of 50 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Board has unanimously agreed to reappoint 11 regional reserve bank presidents for a new five-year term, addressing key issues regarding the future composition of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1] Group 1: Appointment Details - The new term for the regional reserve bank presidents will last for five years, with current terms expiring on February 28, 2026 [1] - The reappointments followed a comprehensive review by the boards of directors of the regional reserve banks and unanimous agreement from the Washington Federal Reserve Board [1] Group 2: FOMC Participation - All 12 regional reserve bank presidents are members of the FOMC and participate in interest rate decisions, although only five have voting rights each year [1] - The presidents are nominated by business leaders from the boards of directors of the regional reserve banks and must be approved by the Washington Federal Reserve Board [1] Group 3: Future Leadership - The president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, Bostic, has announced plans to retire at the end of his term in February 2026 [1] - Financial markets are awaiting an announcement from the White House regarding President Trump's nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair after Powell's term ends in May [1] - Kevin Hassett, a close economic advisor to Trump, is considered a leading candidate for the position [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is expected to lower interest rates despite increasing calls for caution from officials [1] Group 1 - The decision to lower interest rates is anticipated to occur on Wednesday [1] - There is a growing concern among officials regarding the potential implications of lowering rates [1]

英国央行预计，财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯的预算案将在明年春季使英国通货膨胀率降低最多0.5个百分 点，即便政府将在未来几年增加支出。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 预算案措施包括冻结铁路票价、削减家庭能源账单和减免燃油税，被视为为12月18日会议上再次降息铺 平道路。 英国央行副行长Clare Lombardelli周二公布，央行初步分析显示，控制家庭支出的措施将使2026年第二 季度起一年内的年通胀率降低0.4至0.5个百分点。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 这项分析可能会影响利率制定者在下周关键会议上的思考，届时，意见分歧的委员将决定是否恢复降 息。 英国央行预计，财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯的预算案将在明年春季使英国通货膨胀率降低最多0.5个百分 点，即便政府将在未来几年增加支出。 英国央行副行长Clare Lombardelli周二公布，央行初步分析显示，控制家庭支出的措施将使2026年第二 季度起一年内的年通胀率降低0.4至0.5个百分点。 这项分析可能会影响利率制定者在下周关键会议上的思考，届时，意见分歧的委员将决定是否恢复降 息。 预算案措施包括冻结铁路票价、削减家庭能源账单和减免燃油税，被视为为12月18日 ...

Showtime. The moment Wall Street has spent the last six weeks waiting for has nearly arrived: The Federal Reserve will make its final interest-rate decision of the year at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow. ...

Oil Market - Crude oil prices have declined for the second consecutive day due to concerns over oversupply and falling refined oil prices, with WTI crude down 1.1% to approximately $58 per barrel [2][6] - The spread between gasoline and crude oil prices has reached its weakest level since February, indicating a significant drop in refined oil demand [2][6] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record average of 13.61 million barrels per day this year, exacerbating concerns over short-term oversupply [2][6] Precious Metals - Silver prices surged above $60 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will further ease monetary policy [3][8] - The spot silver price increased by 4.5% to $60.79 per ounce, supported by tight supply conditions in the market [9][10] - Gold prices also rose, reflecting the overall bullish sentiment in precious metals due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][10] Base Metals - Copper prices have retreated from historical highs, with a recent peak of $11,771 per ton, as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting [11][12] - The 14-day relative strength index for copper has recently surpassed 70, indicating potential overextension in price increases [11] - LME copper closed down 1.3% at $11,487 per ton, with other base metals like aluminum, nickel, zinc, tin, and lead also experiencing declines [12]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday [1] - The announcement will include the latest Summary of Economic Projections [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide remarks following the announcement [1]