Core Viewpoint - Significant progress has been made in the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, with discussions focusing on the deployment scale and positioning of Israeli troops in specific areas [1] Group 1 - The negotiations are taking place in Doha, Qatar, and have reached a critical stage [1] - Israeli public broadcasting reported that flexibility shown by Israel on troop deployment has contributed to the progress [1] - There is optimism among the parties involved that an agreement may soon be reached [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract continuing to repair the basis. If there is a callback today, consider adding positions [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75%; the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; the US West route was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 21: the composite index was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; the European line price was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; the US West route was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; the US West route was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3] 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (2 - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [3] 3.3 Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. The spot market price range was set, with small price increases to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to decline today, consider adding positions. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a decline, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6] 3.6 Geopolitical News - A new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks, and all parties are cautiously optimistic [7]. - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqqi wrote to the UN Security Council and the Secretary - General regarding the UK, France, and Germany's threat to activate "rapid - restoration sanctions", stating that their actions are invalid [7]

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience high-level fluctuations. It is recommended to hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly. [1][9] - The 2508 contract's performance is influenced by Maersk's freight rates. Depending on different scenarios, its delivery settlement price may fall within different ranges. [8] - The 2510 contract is in the traditional off - season for the European Line. The market's fundamental trading logic is to short on rallies, but in the short term, it may show high - level fluctuations due to factors such as concentrated short positions and market sentiment. [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2508 contract closed at 2,265.9 points, up 5.80%; EC2510 closed at 1,613.0 points, up 1.55%; EC2512 closed at 1,791.0 points, up 2.22%. Over the past week, the main 2510 contract rose 16.7% and added 22,398 lots; the secondary main 2512 contract rose 16.2% and added 2,131 lots; the near - month 2508 contract rose 235.3 points and reduced 13,984 lots. [1][6] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different trends. For example, the trading volume of EC2510 was 68,673, and its open interest was 51,371, with an increase of 1,346 in open interest. [1] 2. Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and SCFI**: The SCFIS for the European route was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was $2,079/TEU, down 1.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI for the US West route was $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% bi - weekly. [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late July, MSC and Yang Ming slightly decreased their rates, while other shipping companies' FAK remained stable. In August, ONE's offline rates remained the same, and the OA Alliance and MSC may announce rate increases. [7] 3. Shipping Capacity - **Weekly and Monthly Average Shipping Capacity**: Data on weekly and monthly average shipping capacities from China to European basic ports are presented, but specific analysis is not provided in the report. Future sailings may be dynamically adjusted, and the pending voyages in September are not included in the shipping capacity statistics. [4] 4. Market Fundamentals - **Cargo Volume**: Benefiting from the strong FOB cargo volume, shipping companies' loading conditions at the end of July were optimistic, and the cargo volume at the beginning of August still had support. However, on a monthly basis, August is likely to see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is unclear. [8] - **Contract Analysis**: Different scenarios for the 2508 contract's delivery settlement price are analyzed based on Maersk's freight rates. For the 2510 contract, due to it being in the off - season, the fundamental trading logic is to short on rallies, but short - term high - level fluctuations are expected. [8][9] 5. Macro News - **Geopolitical Events**: A new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks. The Israeli military issued an evacuation warning and will launch a ground offensive in Deir al - Balah in central Gaza. Iran agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries on the nuclear issue. [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, regarding Gaza is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks, with cautious optimism from involved parties [1] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - The negotiations involve discussions on the exchange of detained individuals, with some progress made under the mediation of Qatar [1] - Since December 6, indirect talks have been ongoing between Israel and Hamas concerning the ceasefire and the exchange of detainees [1]

Core Viewpoint - Significant progress has been made in the latest ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, regarding the Gaza conflict, with Israel proposing a new withdrawal plan from Gaza [1] Group 1: Negotiation Developments - Israel has submitted a new military withdrawal proposal, indicating more concessions during the proposed 60-day ceasefire period [1] - The mediators, Qatar and Egypt, believe that the new proposal increases the likelihood of reaching an agreement [1] - Discussions are currently focused on Israel's military presence in the Rafah area [1] Group 2: Challenges and Future Outlook - An Israeli diplomat noted that negotiations with Hamas are challenging and progress is slow, with no specific timeline provided for the talks [1] - The diplomat expressed belief that a short-term ceasefire agreement is feasible, although Israel has not committed to ending the conflict permanently [1] - The proposed ceasefire is temporary, lasting 60 days, during which negotiations for a permanent ceasefire will continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding a ceasefire in Gaza have been progressing slowly, with Israel showing willingness to compromise on military presence in the region [1] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - A senior Israeli official indicated that the latest round of indirect negotiations in Doha has seen slow progress over the past two days [1] - Since December 6, discussions have focused on a ceasefire and the exchange of detained individuals [1] Group 2: Israeli Position - Israel has made further concessions regarding its military presence in the southern Gaza area of Rafah compared to previous proposals [1] - The Israeli side has demonstrated a willingness to compromise in order to reach an agreement [1] Group 3: Hamas Response - The Israeli official emphasized that it is now Hamas's turn to show a serious attitude towards the negotiations and demonstrate flexibility [1]

以色列官员：多哈的（加沙停火）谈判仍在进行中，并未濒临破裂。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are facing new obstacles, potentially delaying an agreement for several days [1] Group 1 - Israeli officials indicated that the negotiations with Hamas may take several days to reach an agreement [1] - A proposal by Israel to establish a "humanitarian city" in the southern Gaza city of Rafah has emerged as a new obstacle in the Doha ceasefire talks [1] - A Palestinian source involved in the negotiations stated that this issue is "hindering" the progress of the talks, with Hamas expressing strong opposition to the proposal [1]

Group 1 - The first round of ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, ended without agreement due to Israel's lack of sufficient authorization to discuss key issues such as ceasefire duration and prisoner release [2][3] - Israel's negotiating team was only authorized to discuss humanitarian aid distribution, which limited the scope of the talks [3] - The proposed ceasefire plan by Qatar required Hamas to release 10 Israeli captives and return 18 bodies within 60 days, while Israel insisted on retaining the right to resume military actions [3][5] Group 2 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with President Trump is focused on the Gaza ceasefire, Iran issues, and normalization of relations with Arab countries, with market attention on potential concessions from Trump regarding tariffs and military aid [2][6] - The meeting is the third between Trump and Netanyahu in six months, with three main focal points: specific terms of the Gaza ceasefire, Iran nuclear issues, and tariff policies [6] - Israel has reportedly rejected Hamas's demand for a "permanent ceasefire," preferring a phased temporary ceasefire instead [6] Group 3 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to be a key market catalyst, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates in July and a significant chance of a rate cut in September [7] - Long-term concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit risk are highlighted by the rising federal debt-to-GDP ratio and the declining share of the dollar in global reserves [9] - Geopolitical developments, including the Gaza ceasefire negotiations and the outcomes of the Trump-Netanyahu meeting, are likely to influence gold price fluctuations in the short term [9]

Group 1 - The first round of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Doha, Qatar, on July 6 did not yield any results, as the Israeli delegation lacked sufficient authorization to reach an agreement with Hamas [1][3] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to visit the United States on July 7, with instructions for the Israeli representatives to reach a ceasefire agreement under acceptable conditions for Israel [3] - The focus of the negotiations is on the conditions for a ceasefire agreement, with a proposed plan including a 60-day ceasefire, the release of 10 Israeli captives by Hamas, and the return of several bodies in exchange for the release of Palestinian detainees [3]