Core Viewpoint - The recent market performance shows mixed results across various indices, with the ChiNext Index rising while the STAR 50 Index slightly declined, indicating a divergence in sector performance and potential investment opportunities in specific areas [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Over the last five trading days, the STAR 50 Index decreased by 0.35%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.50%. The large-cap value stocks rose by 1.94%, and large-cap growth stocks increased by 1.78%. The Shanghai 50 Index saw a rise of 1.21%, and the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 increased by 0.53% [1]. - Steel and building materials sectors performed well, while the computer and non-bank financial sectors lagged behind [1]. Group 2: Risk Premium and Valuation Levels - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds, reached 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.08% on October 28, 2022, indicating a market rebound potential. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4% [1]. - As of July 4, 2025, the CSI All Index's PE TTM percentile was at 61%, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 67% and 60%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 20%, indicating a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages [2]. Group 3: Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 21.2 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by approximately 19.7 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 1.4136 trillion yuan [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and AI Modeling - The long-term technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with significant declines observed in previous cycles. The current adjustment phase, which began in the first quarter of 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. - A convolutional neural network model has been developed to analyze price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes, with a focus on banking and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][9].

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index increase by 3.17%, the ChiNext Index by 5.69%, the large-cap value by 1.52%, the large-cap growth by 2.61%, the SSE 50 by 1.27%, and the small-cap represented by the CSI 2000 by 4.94% [1] - The sectors showing strong performance include computers and national defense, while oil, petrochemicals, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, calculated as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically high levels, reaching 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.08% on October 28, 2022 [1] - As of January 19, 2024, the indicator stood at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 to exceed 4% [1] Valuation Levels - As of June 27, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM percentile is at 59%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 66% and 57% respectively, while the ChiNext Index is close to 19% [2] - The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2] Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets, with significant declines observed in previous cycles [2] - The current adjustment phase, which began in Q1 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 1.3 billion yuan, while margin trading increased by approximately 17 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.4528 trillion yuan across the two markets [4] AI and Machine Learning Applications - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with the latest focus on sectors such as banking and artificial intelligence [3][11]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 1.89% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.22%. The large-cap value index rose by 0.10%, and the large-cap growth index fell by 0.16%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index declined by 0.46%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 dropped by 0.74%. The non-ferrous metals and oil & petrochemical sectors performed well, whereas household appliances and food & beverage sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data to be at two standard deviations above the mean, with notable instances in 2012, 2018, and 2020. As of April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it rose to 4.08%. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth instance since 2016 exceeding 4%. As of June 13, 2025, the indicator was at 3.83%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.75% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of June 13, 2025, the CSI All Index's PE TTM percentile was at 54%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 had percentiles of 62% and 52%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 13%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at 30% and 22%, respectively. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index indicates a bear market every three years, followed by a bull market. Historical declines ranged from 40% to 45%, with the current adjustment starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds saw an outflow of 17 billion yuan, while margin trading increased by approximately 9.4 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.3392 trillion yuan [2]. AI and Machine Learning Insights - A convolutional neural network (CNN) was utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest recommended themes include non-ferrous metals and banking sectors [7].

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 1.89% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.22%. The large-cap value index rose by 0.10%, and the large-cap growth index fell by 0.16%. The Shanghai 50 Index declined by 0.46%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 dropped by 0.74%. The non-ferrous metals and oil & petrochemical sectors performed well, whereas household appliances and food & beverage sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data to be at two standard deviations above the mean, with notable peaks in 2012, 2018, and 2020. As of April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it rose to 4.08%. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth instance since 2016 exceeding 4%. As of June 13, 2025, the indicator was at 3.83%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.75% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of June 13, 2025, the CSI All Index's P/E TTM percentile was at 54%. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices were at 62% and 52%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 13%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were at 30% and 22%. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index indicates a bear market every three years, followed by a bull market. Historical declines ranged from 40% to 45%, with the current adjustment starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - Over the last five trading days, ETF funds saw an outflow of 17 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by approximately 9.4 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.3392 trillion yuan [2]. Neural Network Analysis - A convolutional neural network (CNN) was utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest recommended themes include non-ferrous metals and banking sectors [9].

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.36%, the ChiNext Index by 1.40%, and the large-cap value index by 0.16%, while the large-cap growth index fell by 2.71%. The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.22%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 0.94%. Sectors such as environmental protection and biomedicine performed well, while automotive and electrical equipment lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, defined as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index (EP) minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically significant levels. For instance, on April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator stood at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4%. As of May 30, 2025, the indicator was at 3.90%, with the two-standard deviation boundary set at 4.75% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of May 30, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM was at the 50th percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 61% and 48%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 11%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at 30% and 32%. The ChiNext Index's valuation style is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index indicates a cyclical pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. Historical declines ranged from 40% to 45%, with the current adjustment starting in the first quarter of 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 8.5 billion yuan, with margin trading increasing by approximately 720 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 10.687 billion yuan [4]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as banking [3][10].

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 1.10% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.38%. The large-cap value and growth indices rose by 1.45% and 1.60%, respectively. The Shanghai 50 Index rose by 1.22%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 increased by 0.16%. The beauty and personal care sector, along with non-bank financials, performed well, while the computer and defense industries lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data at two standard deviations above the mean, with notable instances in 2012, 2018, and 2020. As of April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth instance since 2016 exceeding 4%. As of May 16, 2025, the indicator was at 3.86%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.76% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of May 16, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM percentile is at 52%. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices are at 62% and 50%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index is close to 11%. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are at 31% and 33%, indicating that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical levels [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index shows a pattern of bear markets occurring every three years, followed by bull markets. The last bear market began in Q1 2021, with previous declines ranging from 40% to 45%. The current adjustment appears to have sufficient time and space, suggesting a potential upward cycle from the bottom [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 34.1 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 600 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 1.2317 trillion yuan [3]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The report discusses the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to model price and volume data, aiming to predict future prices. The learned features are mapped to industry themes, with a current focus on banking [6].

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌0.40%，创业板指涨1.74%，大盘价值跌0.30%，大盘成长涨0.89%，上证50跌0.33%，国证2000代表的小盘涨2.38%，汽车、 美容护理市场表现靠前，食品饮料、房地产表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/25指标3.99%，两倍标准差边界为4.75%。 估值水平，截至2025/04/25，中证全指PETTM分位数48%，上证50与沪深300分别为60%、46%， ...

Market Performance - The recent 5 trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.31%, the ChiNext Index by 0.64%, while large-cap value stocks rose by 2.62% and large-cap growth stocks fell by 0.24% [1] - The banking and real estate sectors performed well, while defense, military, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds, has reached historical extremes, with values exceeding 4% on multiple occasions since 2016 [1] - As of April 18, 2025, the risk premium stood at 4.05%, with the two-standard deviation boundary at 4.74% [1] Valuation Levels - As of April 18, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's TTM PE percentile is at 47%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 60% and 45% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is relatively undervalued at close to 9% [2] - The long-term view of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with the current adjustment phase starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last 5 trading days, ETF inflows totaled 24.3 billion yuan, while margin trading decreased by approximately 3.4 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1,076.1 billion yuan across the two markets [3] AI and Data Analysis - The use of convolutional neural networks to model price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes, indicating a focus on sectors such as banking and securities as of April 18, 2025 [2][8]

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌0.31%，创业板指跌0.64%，大盘价值涨2.62%，大盘成长跌0.24%，上证50涨1.45%，国证2000代表的小盘涨0.05%，银行、 房地产市场表现靠前，国防军工、农林牧渔表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/18指标4.05%，两倍标准差边界为4.74%。 估值水平，截至2025/04/18，中证全指PETTM分位数47%，上证50与沪深300分别为60%、45%， ...

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌0.63%，创业板指跌6.73%，大盘价值跌2.61%，大盘成长跌3.37%，上证50跌1.60%，国证2000代表的小盘跌6.29%，农林牧 渔、商贸零售市场表现靠前，电力设备、通信表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/11指标4.09%，两倍标准差边界为4.73%。 估值水平，截至2025/04/11，中证全指PETTM分位数45%，上证50与沪深300分别为56%、43%，创业板指接近9%，中证500与中证1000 ...