Core Viewpoint - A survey of economists indicates that 80% expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming policy meeting, returning the benchmark rate to zero, the same level as in September 2022 when the SNB ended a seven-year negative interest rate policy [1][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Among 22 forecasters, only three predict a 50 basis point cut to -0.25%, while six others expect a reduction to -0.25% in September [1] - Most forecasters believe the SNB's easing cycle will conclude in June [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - The SNB may cite extremely weak consumer price growth as justification for a sixth consecutive rate cut, with the Swiss inflation rate falling to negative territory in May for the first time since 2021 [3] - Forecasts suggest an average inflation rate of only 0.3% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 [3] Group 3: Currency and Economic Impact - Following President Trump's announcement of significant tariffs in April, there has been a surge in safe-haven flows into the Swiss franc, which has appreciated over 8% against the US dollar [6] - The SNB is attempting to prevent further appreciation of the Swiss franc, as a stronger currency could lower domestic inflation and harm exports, negatively impacting economic growth [6][8] - SNB President Martin Schlegel indicated readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to maintain price stability, and he acknowledged the potential return to negative interest rates despite the challenges it poses to the financial system [6][8] Group 4: International Relations and Currency Manipulation Concerns - The strong Swiss franc has created a dilemma for the SNB, forcing policymakers to choose between negative interest rates and foreign exchange market intervention, which could provoke discontent from the US [8] - The US Treasury has placed Switzerland on its watchlist for currency policy, indicating ongoing scrutiny of the SNB's actions [8]

瑞士央行：在某些情况下，可能需要通过外汇市场干预来确保适当的货币政策环境。 ...

瑞士央行行长：瑞士央行的政策利率是主要工具，但我们也将考虑采取其他措施，例如外汇市场干预。 ...

瑞士央行行长施莱格尔：瑞士央行必须在不确定时期确保价格稳定。政策利率是我们的主要工具，但在 必要时我们也可以干预外汇市场。 ...

波兰央行重申可能会干预外汇市场，进一步的决策取决于数据。 ...

我们总是说，如果有必要，我们会干预外汇市场。 我们的使命是稳定瑞士的物价。 瑞士央行行长Schlegel：瑞郎升值了很多。 ...

瑞士央行行长：我们的使命是在瑞士实现价格稳定，我们必须确保这一目标，因此我们采用利率和汇率 工具；我们已表示准备在必要时干预外汇市场。 ...

台湾地区货币政策主管机构：我们对外汇市场的干预程度比平时要小。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) against the US Dollar is driven by optimistic expectations in trade negotiations, increased dollar selling by Taiwanese exporters, and intensified foreign exchange hedging operations by life insurance companies [1] Group 1 - Taiwanese exporters are actively selling US Dollars, contributing to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar [1] - Life insurance companies are increasing their foreign exchange hedging activities, further supporting the TWD's strength [1] - The intervention by the Central Bank of Taiwan in the foreign exchange market has decreased, which may also be a factor in the TWD's rise [1]