（央视财经《天下财经》）韩国的能源和食品等高度依赖进口，近期韩元对美元汇率大幅下跌，不仅导 致韩国国内油价明显走高，进口物价也创9个月来最大涨幅。 财经频道特约记者 朱鸿钰：在韩国交易所，受隔夜美股下跌、外资持续出逃等因素影响，今天（21 日）首尔外汇市场上，韩元对美元汇率开盘报1472.4韩元兑换1美元，为7个月来的最低值。近期韩元对 美元汇率持续走弱，截至昨天（20日）收盘，韩元对美元汇率在一个月内下跌约3.43%。 编辑：令文芳 韩国开发研究院（KDI）分析指出，韩元对美元汇率每下跌1个百分点，消费者物价就会上升0.04个百 分点。 受韩元贬值影响，韩国进口物价指数自7月以来连续数月走高。韩国央行本月公布的最新数据显 示，10月进口物价指数较前一个月上涨1.9%，创下自今年1月以来的最大单月涨幅。通常情况下，进口 物价会在1-3个月对消费者物价产生影响，这意味着岁末年初，韩国物价面临的上行压力正进一步加 大。 转载请注明央视财经 分析指出，一方面是美联储短期内降息的可能性降低，导致美元走强；同时，近期外资大规模抛售韩 股，统计显示，截至20日的一个月里，外资在韩国主板市场上净卖出近10万亿韩元、约合人民 ...

分析人士指出，该举措旨在通过协调主要机构的外汇交易行为，在不直接披露干预规模或操作细节的前 提下，缓解韩元下行压力，防范汇率剧烈波动对韩国出口依赖型经济造成进一步冲击。 目前，具体干预方式、资金规模及操作时间表暂未披露。韩国财政部与央行均未确认是否已动用外汇储 备进行直接入市操作，亦未说明国民年金公团将如何调整其外币资产配置。相关措施的实际效果仍有待 市场后续反应验证。 新华财经北京11月14日电韩国政府于本周五宣布将联合国民年金公团等核心市场力量，采取协调行动以 稳定外汇市场。 韩国财政部长具润哲当日紧急召集韩国央行行长李昌镛及金融监管机构高层举行会议，决定与国民年金 公团和主要出口企业密切协作，制定综合应对方案。 此次行动标志着韩国当局对韩元持续贬值风险的警戒已升至新高度。作为全球规模最大的养老基金之 一，国民年金公团的参与被视为向市场传递政策决心的重要信号。 11月6日，韩元兑美元汇率曾跌至1473.2，刷新自2009年3月13日以来的盘中低点 。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Currency Depreciation - The Korean won is approaching its lowest point since the 2009 global financial crisis, having depreciated 6% in the last three months, making it the largest decline among Asian currencies [1] - The won fell to 1475 against the US dollar, nearing the critical level of 1487.45 reached in March 2009 [1] Group 2: Foreign Capital Outflow - A significant factor behind the depreciation is the massive outflow of foreign capital, with overseas investors net selling 7.26 trillion won (approximately 5.2 billion USD) in Korean stocks in the first week of November, marking the largest single-week outflow on record [2] - This outflow exceeded the total outflow of 5.34 trillion won in October and nearly erased all inflows from September [2] - The focus of foreign selling has been on semiconductor manufacturers, which were previously overvalued due to AI hype, amid concerns over an overheated AI stock market [2] Group 3: Domestic Investment Trends - South Korean residents invested 99.85 billion USD in foreign stocks and bonds from January to September, more than three times the 29.65 billion USD foreign investment in Korean securities [2] - This strong demand for overseas securities is contributing to the depreciation pressure on the won [2] Group 4: Economic Vulnerabilities - The Korean economy's structural vulnerabilities, particularly its heavy reliance on semiconductor exports and the US dollar, make it susceptible to risks from US-driven tariffs and policies [2] - A report from Citibank highlighted that South Korea's commitment to invest 350 billion USD in the US could exert significant long-term pressure on the won [2] Group 5: Government Response - In response to the ongoing depreciation, the Bank of Korea has indicated a willingness to intervene in the currency market if volatility escalates, although it downplayed the weakening trend of the won [4] - The Bank of Korea has taken measures to enhance foreign exchange supply, including increasing banks' forward foreign exchange position limits and relaxing restrictions on foreign currency loans for domestic use [5][6] Group 6: Economic Growth Outlook - The continuous depreciation of the won casts a shadow over South Korea's economic recovery, with the International Monetary Fund projecting a growth rate of only 0.9% for the year, the slowest among Asian countries [6] - The Bank of Korea has maintained interest rates unchanged since a cut in May, contrasting with recent rate cuts by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that South Korea's GDP grew by 1.2% in Q3, the highest since Q1 2024, driven by strong exports and manufacturing performance, surpassing the Bank of Korea's expectation of 1.1% growth [1] - Analysts have revised their economic growth forecasts for next year, with Samsung Securities and Korea Investment Securities increasing their projections from 2.0% and 1.8% to 2.2% and 1.9% respectively [1] - Key growth drivers include consumption vouchers, a strong stock market, increased semiconductor exports, reduced trade uncertainties, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although high interest rates and investment uncertainties may limit equipment investment and investments in certain sectors [1] Group 2 - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) has surged nearly 70% this year, making it one of the best-performing indices globally, significantly outperforming returns from U.S. stock indices [1] - Concerns over the potential erosion of asset values due to agreements between South Korea and the U.S. have led retail investors in South Korea to invest heavily in dollar-denominated stocks and gold, exacerbating fears of the won's depreciation [1] - The South Korean won has depreciated over 3% in the past three months, becoming one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia [1] Group 3 - A researcher from the Bank of Korea indicated that the weak trend of the won is expected to continue in the short term, particularly due to the unclear interest rate outlook from the Bank of Japan [5] - The won's depreciation has led to upward pressure on the dollar, with expectations that it will stabilize around 1430 won [5]

Group 1 - A $350 billion investment commitment to the U.S. is causing significant capital outflow from South Korea, negatively impacting investor sentiment [1][8] - The South Korean won has depreciated over 3% in the past three months, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia [2][3] - Retail investors in South Korea are increasingly moving their funds into U.S. dollar-denominated stocks and gold due to fears of asset devaluation [1][5] Group 2 - Despite a remarkable bull market in the South Korean stock market, local retail investors remain unconvinced and are withdrawing their investments [6][7] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-South Korea investment agreement and concerns about the South Korean economy are driving market anxiety [8][9] - The South Korean economy is projected to grow only 0.9% this year, the slowest growth since the COVID-19 pandemic, with rising household debt and real estate bubble concerns limiting monetary policy effectiveness [10]

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's commitment to invest $350 billion in the U.S. may exert pressure on the Korean won [1] Financing Needs - Due to lessons learned from the 1997-1998 financial crisis, South Korea is unlikely to utilize its $416 billion foreign exchange reserves [1] - Public institutions may need to raise $20 billion to $30 billion in foreign currency annually [1] Bond Market Impact - The remaining financing requirement of $86 billion to $96 billion may need to be sourced from the bond market [1] - Large-scale bond issuance could increase financing costs and put additional pressure on the Korean won [1] Currency Risk - Even if private enterprises share part of the financing burden, the shift of dollar export revenues to won may lead to depreciation risks [1] U.S. Engagement - Citi expects South Korea to seek solutions from the U.S. for potential foreign exchange shocks and to request an extension of the investment commitment timeline [1]