Core Viewpoint - Economists Marc Sumerlin and Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos are candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, both advocating for significant interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Perspectives - Sumerlin suggests a 50 basis point rate cut is an "obvious choice" given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [1] - Zervos argues for decisive monetary policy easing to prevent labor market slowdown and potentially create more jobs, asserting that current monetary policy is too tight [1] Group 2: Political Context - The positions of both candidates align with President Trump's call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that a significant interest rate cut next month does not seem appropriate [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects the Fed's cautious approach towards monetary policy adjustments [1] - The comments suggest a focus on economic stability rather than aggressive rate cuts [1]

黄金涨，美股涨，加密货币大涨，而美元继续下跌——市场出现了久违但感知不太明显的"美元上涨， 一切皆跌"模式。这种模式，一旦资金链条形成正反馈，容易引发一波"无视基本面"的风险资产上涨。 昨天的上涨是精心策划的，特朗普继续引导市场预期。 美国财长贝森特发出迄今最明确的呼吁，美联储应当进行一系列降息，首先是9月降息50基点，（本 轮）应该降息150到175个基点。如果官员们事先知道上次会议后几天发布的劳动力市场修正数据，他们 可能已经降息了。 财政部长通常不愿就美联储利率做出具体决定，贝森特几个月来一直表示，他只会讨论美联储过去的政 策决定，而不是即将做出的决定。但昨晚贝森特不仅要求美联储降息，而且是大幅降息，是接连的大幅 降息。 特朗普则更近一步，称"应该将300-400基点"（照此算应该是把利率降至0）。 降息立场很强烈，市场被推着走——交易员预期美联储9月份降息25基点的概率为100%，并预期今年剩 余3次会议合计将降息62个基点，而周二收盘时为59个基点。更重要的是，贝森特表示应降息50基点 后，市场对这一想法予以了一些考量。即使美联储不想那么快降息，财政部的表态也会影响市场情绪， 压低收益率、让美元走弱 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with three additional cuts anticipated due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and concerns surrounding Trump's latest Federal Reserve appointments [2] - The poor non-farm payroll data for July, along with significant downward revisions for May and June, has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, leading to increased recession fears and uncertainty regarding trade policies [2][3] - Trump's push for substantial rate cuts aims to reduce U.S. debt risks and stimulate exports, but such cuts could lead to high inflation, a depreciating dollar, and increased import prices, complicating the economic landscape [3][4] Group 2 - The likelihood of consecutive rate cuts in September and the fourth quarter is higher, but the probability of three cuts remains uncertain unless employment data worsens significantly [4] - The strength of the U.S. stock market is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as evidenced during the subprime and COVID-19 crises [4][5] - High interest rates from the Federal Reserve are currently restraining inflation and suppressing stock market bubbles, while also attracting international arbitrage funds, thus maintaining liquidity in the U.S. market [5]

白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：美国总统6月30日发函给美联储主席鲍威尔。 在"全球央行利率"文件中，特朗普向鲍威尔谈及全球利率现状。 特朗普告诉鲍威尔"你（行动）太迟缓了……应该大幅降息"。 ...