美国总统特朗普表示，他将很快提名美联储主席的继任者，而鲍威尔的任期还有将近一年才结束。投资 者表示，这可能给市场带来一个危险的命题。 自今年1月开始第二个任期以来，特朗普毫不掩饰他对鲍威尔及美联储不降息的不满。尽管特朗普已收 回今年早些时候可能解雇鲍威尔的言论，且美国最高法院最近的一项裁决也缓解了人们对他这样做的担 忧，但他本月早些时候表示，关于下一任美联储主席的决定将很快做出。 投资者表示，在鲍威尔任期于2026年5月结束前提早这么久就宣布继任者，可能会在市场中引发严重不 安。 瑞银全球财富管理的美洲资产配置主管Jason Draho表示，如果在未来几个月内宣布一个非传统的美联储 人选，将给市场带来一个潜在的风险。他说，"如果人们对这一切可能如何演变过于自满，那么这个风 险是存在的。" 在美联储理事库格勒的任期于明年1月结束前，美联储没有空缺席位可供特朗普临时填补。 话虽如此，美联储主席只是货币政策制定委员会的18名成员之一，其部分职责是在委员会内部建立共 识。 Ritholtz Wealth Management的首席市场策略师Callie Cox表示，市场希望看到的美联储主席是能够"高度 专注"于经济平 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束前近一年时提名 继任者。投资者认为这可能给市场带来风险。 特朗普毫不掩饰对鲍威尔和美联储自他1月开始第二任期以来未降息的不满。尽管特朗普已收回今年早 些时候可能解雇鲍威尔的言论，且近期美国最高法院的裁决缓解了相关担忧，但他在本月早些时候表 示，将很快决定下任美联储主席人选。 投资者称，在鲍威尔2026年5月任期结束前很久就宣布这一消息，可能会引发市场严重不安。一个与现 任央行领导人在货币政策上观点可能冲突的"影子"美联储主席可能会造成混乱。 鉴于投资者普遍认为美联储的独立性对其正常运作至关重要，任何被视为受特朗普控制的选择都会令华 尔街感到恐慌。 联博首席美国经济学家埃里克·维诺格拉德表示，"无论任命谁，关键是要看他们是否被视为政治任 命，""我指的是那些观点随总统心血来潮而改变的人。" 制定美国货币政策并负责维持充分就业和物价稳定的美联储主席是华尔街最关注的政府官员之一。不 过，美联储主席只是央行货币政策制定委员会18名成员之一，其部分职责是在委员会内建立共识。 瑞银全球财富管理美洲资产配置主管杰森·德拉霍表示，如果在未来几个月内 ...

Group 1 - U.S. interest rate traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will shift to a more dovish monetary policy after the current Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, with expectations of rate cuts as early as June 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting and may lower its expectations for rate cuts this year due to upward pressure on prices from tariffs [1] - Traders are focusing on futures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which has seen a surge in trading volume following Trump's announcement of a forthcoming nomination for the next Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - The strategy for betting on interest rate futures includes shorting SOFR futures expiring in March 2026 while going long on those expiring in June 2026, creating a typical "three-month spread trade" [2] - On Monday, the trading volume for this strategy reached 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June contracts hitting the highest levels of the current policy cycle, indicating strong demand for this strategy [2] - The relative price of the March contract has weakened significantly compared to the December 2025 and June 2026 contracts, leading to the highest price spread since January [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that Trump may choose a successor who supports loose monetary policy, which could complicate the nomination process in Congress [5] - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a "shadow" Fed Chair if Trump nominates a successor before Powell's term ends, leading to mixed signals that could undermine market confidence in U.S. policy-making [5] - It is important to note that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is collectively decided by the Federal Open Market Committee, and the Chair does not unilaterally set policy rates [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming end of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term in June 2024 is creating political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump and Vice President Vance, who are advocating for interest rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Political Pressure on Powell - President Trump and Vice President Vance have been urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with Trump criticizing Powell's performance and suggesting that the Fed is lagging behind other central banks [2][3]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, leading to annual interest payments of $1.2 trillion, making interest rate cuts an appealing option to alleviate fiscal pressure [2]. Group 2: Succession Candidates - The Trump administration is reportedly considering appointing a "shadow chairman" to influence market expectations before Powell's term ends, with four main candidates being discussed: Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Hassett [4][5]. - Bessent is viewed as a frontrunner due to his close ties to Trump and understanding of his economic agenda, although his close relationship with the White House may compromise the Fed's independence [5][6]. - Warsh, a former Fed governor, has a hawkish stance that may conflict with Trump's desire for rate cuts, while Waller is seen as a potential compromise candidate who understands Fed operations but lacks White House favor [6]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The new chairman will face challenges in balancing political pressures for rate cuts with the need to maintain the Fed's credibility, especially in light of rising inflation expectations [6]. - The debate over the next Fed chair underscores the ongoing tension between maintaining the Fed's independence and responding to political demands, which could shape the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [1][6].

隔夜，现货黄金上升近1%，并突破3350美元，日内最高触及3360.44美元，最低触及3315.19美元，最终收报于3355.02美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅上 涨，目前在3361美元附近徘徊。 降息100个基点！ 隔夜，美国三大股指小幅收跌，截至收盘，道指微跌1个点，报42865.77点；标普500指数跌0.27%，报6022.24点；纳指跌0.5%，报19615.88点。 消息面上，美联储的降息前景突生变数。 隔夜，美国总统特朗普表示，美国CPI最新数据表现理想，他呼吁美联储将利率下调一个百分点（100基点）。美国副总统万斯表示，美联储拒绝降息是 货币政策的失职行为。 在此之前，美国劳工统计局公布的5月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告显示，美国5月未季调CPI年率录得2.4%，低于市场预期的2.5%，前值为2.3%；5月季调后 CPI月率录得0.1%，低于预期的0.2%，前值为0.2%。 美国CPI数据公布后，交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次，利率互换显示交易员预计美联储在9月份前降息的可能性为75%。 另据CME"美联储观察"，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为100%（数据公布前为99.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is advocating for a 100 basis point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, citing favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and potential savings on upcoming debt interest payments [2][3]. Group 1: Shadow Fed Chair Strategy - Trump is considering the "shadow Fed chair" strategy proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which involves signaling potential successors to the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends [3][4]. - Deutsche Bank's report identifies three main candidates for the shadow chair: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Chris Waller [5][6]. - The establishment of a shadow chair is seen as a way to provide forward guidance on monetary policy, potentially reducing uncertainty in long-term bond yields and improving the financing environment for U.S. debt [4][16]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The shadow chair could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which Trump has been advocating to support his economic agenda, including the "Big, Beautiful Bill" [4][14]. - Analysts suggest that the shadow chair's role, while not having formal power, could shape economic behavior and market perceptions ahead of any official policy changes [4][10]. - The strategy may also serve to undermine Powell's authority and signal a shift in monetary policy direction, as Trump seeks to exert more influence over the Fed [13][14]. Group 3: Candidate Preferences - Among the candidates, Waller is viewed as more favorable due to his dovish stance on monetary policy, while Warsh has historically held hawkish views [7][8]. - The selection of a candidate who can effectively advocate for lower interest rates will be crucial, as the new chair will need to persuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for policy changes [8][9]. - Bessent's potential candidacy has been denied by the White House, indicating a focus on the other three candidates [9].

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming a focal point for the market, with increasing speculation around potential candidates and their implications for monetary policy [1][2][4]. Candidate Analysis - Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, is being pushed by advisors within the Trump administration as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, although the White House has denied these claims [2][4]. - Current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and there is growing interest in who will succeed him [5]. - Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor; Kevin Hassett, current Director of the National Economic Council; and Chris Waller, current Federal Reserve Governor [9][10][11]. Market Impact - The concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" is emerging, indicating that the market may start reacting to the potential candidates as they become more defined [7][8]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that Trump's administration may favor a "dovish" candidate who aligns with his calls for interest rate cuts [13]. Candidate Preferences - Kevin Waller is noted for his dovish stance, advocating for ignoring tariff-induced inflation to prioritize interest rate cuts, which aligns with Trump's preferences [13][15]. - The report indicates that while all candidates may promise to lower rates, the real challenge lies in implementing such policies effectively [14]. Challenges Ahead - The next Federal Reserve Chair will need to navigate the complexities of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve while addressing political pressures [12][15]. - Candidates from within the government may face heightened scrutiny regarding their ability to uphold the Fed's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [15].

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's potential early maneuvering regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating that an announcement may come soon despite Jerome Powell's term lasting until May 2026 [1] - Trump may leverage the upcoming vacancy of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in January 2026 to position a successor, reflecting the administration's emphasis on monetary policy influence [1] - The market's focus is expected to shift towards the selection of the next Fed Chair as the "Big Beautiful Plan" is anticipated to pass in mid-July and trade policies become clearer [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank identifies three prominent candidates for the Fed Chair position: Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Chris Waller, each with distinct policy inclinations [2] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, is viewed as a frontrunner but has a history of hawkish views, criticizing quantitative easing and recent rate cuts [2] - Chris Waller, currently a Fed Governor, has shown a more dovish stance, suggesting that the Fed could overlook inflation driven by tariffs and lower interest rates [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank believes that Trump's call for a significant rate cut indicates a preference for a dovish candidate, with Waller being seen as having a higher chance of success [3] - The report emphasizes that merely having a dovish inclination is insufficient; the new Chair must persuade colleagues to adopt a different policy path, which could be challenging for external candidates with past criticisms of the Fed [3] - Waller's current position as a Fed Governor may provide him with an advantage in navigating the internal dynamics of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3] Group 4 - The article warns that regardless of the final candidate, the market may test the independence of the next Fed Chair and the credibility of their commitment to achieving inflation targets [4] - The challenge of maintaining independence could be more pronounced if the candidate comes from within the government, especially given Trump's threats to dismiss Powell and calls for substantial rate cuts amid strong economic resilience and rising inflation pressures [4] - The new Fed Chair will face the critical decision of whether to uphold the Fed's hard-won anti-inflation credibility in the current economic context [4]