Market Overview - The government shutdown has reached day 22, impacting market sentiment [1] - Gold is experiencing a selloff, currently down over 1% [1][2] - Bitcoin has decreased by 3.3%, while silver is down only 0.2% [2] Earnings Season - Tesla's earnings report is highly anticipated, marking the beginning of the earnings season for major companies [3] - Other companies reporting after the bell include IBM, Lamb Research, SAP, and Las Vegas Sands [4] Tesla Insights - Goldman Sachs has an overweight rating on Tesla, with a price target of $355, citing record deliveries as a positive factor [5] Trade Developments - The US and India appear to be moving closer to a trade deal that may reduce India's crude oil purchases from Russia [6] - This potential shift could lead to higher crude oil prices, as India may start buying US crude instead [7][9] Mortgage Applications - The 30-year mortgage rate has decreased from 6.42% to 6.37%, leading to a 4% increase in refinance applications [10][11] - Despite a 5.2% drop in purchase applications, the overall composite for mortgage applications is relatively unchanged, down 0.3% [11] - The lower mortgage rates may stimulate real estate investment, although current purchase activity remains subdued [12][13]

GDP and Economic Growth - Q3 2025 GDP growth rate reached 4.8%, aligning with market expectations, while the cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%[3] - Q3 GDP showed a slight increase in quarter-on-quarter growth to 1.1%, compared to 1.0% in Q2[4] - Export growth improved from 6.1% in Q2 to 6.6% in Q3, driven by strong demand from non-US regions[5] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in September was 3.0%, below the expected 3.1% and down from 3.4% in August[8] - The "trade-in" policy's effectiveness is diminishing, impacting consumer spending, particularly in home appliances and office supplies[9] - Restaurant consumption growth fell to 0.9% in September, indicating a decline in outdoor dining demand post-summer[11] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 6.1% in Q3, down from 2.1% in Q2[5] - Manufacturing investment continued to experience negative growth, with a decline of 1.9% in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decrease[22] - Infrastructure investment showed a slight recovery, with narrow declines in September, indicating potential stabilization due to upcoming fiscal policies[23] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area declined by 11.9% year-on-year in September, while sales revenue fell by 12.4%, though the rate of decline is slowing[28] - New construction and completion areas showed signs of recovery, with completion growth turning positive for the first time since 2024[29] Risks and Outlook - The economic outlook for Q4 remains cautious due to high base effects from last year and potential external economic downturns[32] - Continued fiscal policy support is expected to stabilize infrastructure investment, but the effectiveness of consumer policies remains uncertain[23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is currently neutral, indicating that the industry is expected to perform in line with the overall market [22]. Core Insights - The fixed asset investment and manufacturing investment growth rates have continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.5% for fixed asset investment from January to September 2025, and a 4.0% year-on-year increase in manufacturing investment, which is a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4]. - Infrastructure investment is under pressure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% for total infrastructure investment and 1.1% for infrastructure investment excluding electricity, both showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous month [4]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% from January to September 2025, and construction starts down by 18.9% [10]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 5.2%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [3]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth is under pressure, with specific sectors like transportation, water conservancy, and public utilities showing varying degrees of decline [4]. - Eastern regions experienced a year-on-year investment decline of 4.5%, while central and western regions saw a slight increase of 1.5% [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has shown a significant decline, with expectations of a slow recovery due to challenges in supply and inventory replenishment [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall industry is weak, but regional investments may gain traction with the implementation of national strategic layouts. Recommended companies include China Chemical, China Energy Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction among others [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The economic operation in the first three quarters of 2025 shows steady progress, with fixed asset investment and manufacturing investment growth continuing to decline. The GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 are 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively, leading to a cumulative year-on-year fixed asset investment decrease of 0.5% [4][5] - Infrastructure investment is under pressure, with transportation, water conservancy, and public utility investment growth all facing challenges. The total infrastructure investment growth rate (including all categories) is 3.3%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a weak recovery in investment [10] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, with a decline in fixed asset investment and manufacturing investment growth rates [4][5] Infrastructure Investment - Total infrastructure investment growth is 3.3%, with specific sectors like transportation and public utilities showing negative growth [5] Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, with construction starts and completions showing slight improvements [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall industry is weak, but regional investments may gain flexibility with national strategic layouts. Recommended companies include China Chemical, China Energy Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing continued pressure with both investment and sales declining. In the first nine months of 2025, national real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, with the decline rate widening by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. The sales area of new commercial housing was 65,835 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year, and the sales amount was 63,040 billion yuan, down 7.9% [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - **New Housing Transactions and Inventory**: In the last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 198.09 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 70,689.5 million square meters, down 4.9% year-on-year. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 165.43 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year, but up 5.9% month-on-month [5][13] - **Second-hand Housing Transactions and Listings**: In the last week, the transaction area of second-hand housing in 20 cities was 215.09 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 8,859.15 million square meters, up 13.4% year-on-year [19][21] - **Land Market Transactions**: In the last week, 100 major cities saw 101 new residential land supplies and 32 transactions. The average floor price for residential land was 5,539.5 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 2.92% [26] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 2.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.22%. The real estate index lagged behind the CSI 300 by 0.12 percentage points [32][34]

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment in China decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September, compared to a growth of 0.5% from January to August [1] Infrastructure Investment - From January to September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 1.1%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points from the growth rate in August [2] - The rapid decline in infrastructure investment growth is attributed to a strong economic performance in the first half of the year, which reduced the demand for stable growth in infrastructure investment [3] - There is potential for infrastructure investment to accelerate due to the impact of high tariffs from the U.S. and weakening external demand, with expectations that it will serve as a stabilizer for the macro economy [3] - The annual growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is projected to reach around 3.0%, a slowdown of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Real Estate Investment - National real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year from January to September, with the decline widening by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous period [5] - New commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, totaling 65,835 million square meters [5] - The amount of funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, totaling 72,299 billion [5] - The decline in real estate investment is primarily due to real estate companies reducing their balance sheets in response to liquidity challenges and pressure on their financial statements [6] - However, the approval of "white list" loans by commercial banks has increased significantly, which may improve the funding sources for real estate companies [5][6]

Group 1 - The company Shanghai Construction Group's subsidiary won the land use rights for a residential plot in Tianjin Binhai New Area, covering an area of 12,468.65 square meters with a maximum building area of 19,949.84 square meters [1] - The total transaction price for the land is 189.7 million yuan, which will be included in the company's investment plan for 2025 [1] - Acquiring this land aligns with the company's real estate business strategy and is expected to promote the development of its main business [1] Group 2 - The investment may be influenced by macroeconomic factors, and the company plans to implement risk prevention measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in demand and production, with the PMI for September at 47.7%, indicating a continuous decrease for two months, and the traditional peak season characteristics are not evident [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Weak real estate investment and slowing infrastructure construction have contributed to a lackluster demand in the steel market, with the new orders index dropping to 45.2%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points [3][4]. - The production index for the steel industry fell to 45.7%, down 2.3 percentage points, indicating a continued slowdown in production activities [8][12]. - Despite a slight increase in average daily crude steel production in early September, overall production levels have decreased compared to the previous month [8][12]. Inventory and Pricing Trends - Finished product inventory pressure is rising, with the inventory index reaching 54%, marking a two-month expansion and the highest level in nine months [8][12]. - Raw material prices remain high, with the purchasing price index above 60% for three consecutive months, leading to increased cost pressures for steelmaking [12][14]. - Steel prices showed minor fluctuations, with the Shanghai rebar price index indicating a slight decrease compared to the previous month, compressing profit margins for steel mills [14][16]. Future Outlook - October is expected to see a rebound in steel demand due to the resumption of outdoor construction post-holidays and the easing of extreme weather impacts [16][17]. - Steel mills are anticipated to increase production in response to rising demand, with a business activity expectation index of 67.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the coming month [17].

Core Insights - Costco revealed its real-estate strategy alongside its fourth-quarter earnings, celebrating significant anniversaries for its hot-dog combo and Kirkland Signature brand [1] - The company continues to expand, opening 10 new warehouses in the fourth quarter and a total of 27 for the year, bringing its global total to 914 [1][2] - Costco plans to open 35 new warehouses in 2026, indicating strong domestic and international growth opportunities [2] Real Estate Ownership - Unlike many retailers, Costco owns the majority of its warehouses, with a real-estate portfolio valued at $31.9 billion [2] - Approximately 80% of Costco's sites are owned, each valued conservatively between $25 million and $35 million [3] - The company’s strategy emphasizes ownership over leasing, allowing it to operate independently of landlords [3] Sales Performance - Costco's "everyday value items" are crucial for customer retention, especially during economic uncertainty, with significant sales figures reported [4] - In 2025, Costco sold over 245 million hot-dog combos and over 157 million rotisserie chickens, showcasing the popularity of its low-priced offerings [4] - The $1.50 hot-dog and soda combo symbolizes Costco's commitment to low prices, with sales growing by over 23% in just over a year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant shift, with families owning multiple properties facing unprecedented operational challenges, moving away from the previous era where buying property was a guaranteed profit [2] Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The liquidity of real estate is inherently weak, and the current sluggish second-hand housing market exacerbates this issue, leading to properties remaining unsold for months [3] - In first-tier cities, while prime properties may still sell quickly, areas like Shijingshan and Daxing in Beijing have seen average transaction cycles extend to around 40 days [3] - In lower-tier cities, the situation is more severe, with properties taking significant time to sell even after price reductions, indicating a cautious buyer sentiment [3] Group 2: Holding Costs and Financial Burdens - Holding costs for properties, including maintenance fees and heating costs, remain a burden even when properties are vacant, and not all families benefit from recent mortgage rate adjustments [4] - Some regions are beginning to pilot property taxes, which could further increase the holding costs for families with multiple properties [5] Group 3: Rental Market Challenges - The rental market is facing oversupply, particularly in cities experiencing population outflow, leading to high vacancy rates and declining rental prices [7] - Even when properties are rented, the rental yield is often insufficient to cover mortgage interest, leading to financial strain for families relying on rental income [7] Group 4: Management and Operational Issues - Managing multiple properties can lead to increased operational challenges, including dealing with tenant issues and property maintenance [8] Group 5: Value Differentiation in Real Estate - Not all properties are capable of maintaining their value; older or poorly located properties may face depreciation risks [9] - Buyers are increasingly favoring high-quality properties with good management and amenities, while older buildings with inadequate facilities struggle in the market [9] Group 6: Strategic Asset Management - Families with multiple properties should consider asset optimization strategies, such as replacing lower-quality properties with higher-quality ones or reducing leverage to mitigate financial pressure [10] - The current low-interest environment may seem manageable, but potential risks could arise if income decreases or interest rates rise [10]