Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou Cotton futures fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328-grade cotton price index was 15,783 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm-price quotes were lowered, and the basis was temporarily stable. [7] - The pure cotton yarn market had average trading volume, with few new orders. Traders and downstream weavers made purchases based on rigid demand, with a cautious attitude. The pure cotton yarn price quote remained stable, but the transaction focus declined, and some spinning mills sold at a discount. Recently, the sales of low-count yarns improved slightly, with increased demand for 21S and 26S. [7] - The overall trading volume in the all-cotton grey fabric market remained dull. Some regions started pre-festival replenishment, but the volume was still small. [7] Overseas Market - In the USDA monthly report, the 2025/26 US cotton production was revised down by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons, and the global cotton production was revised down by 80,000 tons to 26 million tons compared to December. The global cotton consumption was revised up by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons, which was relatively positive. The supply-demand contradiction in the international market was not prominent. [8] - The net long position of CFTC US cotton funds continued to rise, and the external market trend improved. Attention should be paid to the subsequent signing and export performance. [8] Domestic Market - The domestic fundamentals remained the same, with no significant changes in the short term. Cotton prices fluctuated greatly recently. Spinning mills and traders made purchases at low prices, and yarn prices remained basically stable. Manufacturers sold at appropriate prices. Attention should be paid to whether there would be phased replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Outlook - In the short term, Zhengzhou Cotton futures would fluctuate widely and adjust, waiting for new drivers. In the long term, the upward trend remained unchanged. [8] 2. Industry News USDA January Supply and Demand Report - The expected US cotton planting area for 2025/26 in January was 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 20,000 acres compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton harvest area for 2025/26 in January was 7.8 million acres, an increase of 430,000 acres compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton yield per acre for 2025/26 in January was 856 pounds/acre, a decrease of 73 pounds/acre compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton production for 2025/26 in January was 13.92 million bales, a decrease of 350,000 bales compared to December. [9] - The expected total US cotton supply for 2025/26 in January was 17.92 million bales, a decrease of 350,000 bales compared to December. [9] - The expected total US cotton consumption for 2025/26 in January was 13.8 million bales, the same as in December. [10] - The expected US cotton ending inventory for 2025/26 in January was 4.2 million bales, a decrease of 300,000 bales compared to December. [10] US Cotton Inspection Progress - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 9% slower year-on-year. [10] - The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.703 million tons, with an inspection progress of 89.37%, down 9% year-on-year. The inspection volume of Pima cotton was 72,900 tons, with an inspection progress of 88.6%, 20% slower year-on-year. [10] - The weekly deliverable ratio was 76.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year-on-year. [10] Brazil Cotton Planting Progress - As of January 10, the cotton planting rate in Brazil was 31.9%, up from 31.2% the previous week, lower than 33.5% in the same period last year and higher than the five-year average of 24.2%. [10] 3. Data Overview - The report provided multiple charts, including the CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee. All data sources were Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][18][19][21][27][29]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton continued its upward trend. After the holiday, with limited changes in the fundamentals and the boost of sentiment in the commodity market, after the short - term speculation on the expected reduction of planting, other positive factors are needed for further support. In January, the pre - Spring Festival restocking situation of downstream enterprises can be observed, with strong pressure at the integer - level resistance levels and a phased convergence space for the internal - external price difference [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 41 - 31 grade/dual 29/less than 3% impurity machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar were mostly above 15,300 yuan on a conditioned weight basis, and above 15,400 yuan in northern Xinjiang. The low basis in Kashgar was CF05 + 800 - 900, and in northern Xinjiang it was CF05 + 950 and above [7] - **Domestic Yarn and Fabric Market**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with mainly rigid - demand sales. The prices of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and some manufacturers with low inventory pressure continued to raise prices. The sales in the pure - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with no increase in sales volume and average new order volume [7] - **International Market**: As of the week ending December 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27% and a 31% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 31,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4% but an 11% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The application and issuance of China's 1% tariff import quota are about to start, the net long position of the CFTC US cotton fund has continued to rise, and the external market has recovered [8] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume in China was 6.5789 million tons, an increase of 36,400 tons from the previous day. There is still some upward pressure on the estimated output of the 2025/26 season. The downstream product prices have strengthened steadily following the cotton price. Although the operating rate of the downstream industry has decreased slightly, the finished - product inventory has also decreased, and the overall inventory pressure is not large [8] 3.2 Industry News - India has resumed imposing an 11% tariff on cotton imports since January 1, 2026, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply in India and push up the domestic spot price [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, inter - contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]

线订单表现稳定，多选择刚需补货，部分地区仓库库存小幅下降，整体出库良好，预计全国商业库存仍呈 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 增加之势。不过2026年新疆植棉面积调减预期升温，加之目标价格补贴新周期预期给与托底，短期棉价向 上驱动持续。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14855 | 200 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20875 | 300 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -180066 | -1730 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -2248 | -130 | | | 主力合约持仓量: ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton showed a trend of rising on high volume and then falling back. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market had weak sales [7]. - As of January 4, 2026, the cumulative national cotton inspection was 6.5425 million tons, with a potential increase in the 2025/26 output. The downstream product prices followed the cotton price to strengthen steadily, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. After the short - term speculation on the expected reduction in planting, more positive factors were needed to support the price. The upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton rose on high volume and then fell back. The latest grade 328 cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The 2025/26 cotton prices in southern and northern Xinjiang were different, and the basis also varied. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was weak [7]. - Operation Suggestions: In January, attention could be paid to the downstream restocking before the Spring Festival. Fundamentally, the upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. 2. Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, 1,094 cotton processing enterprises participated in the inspection. The national cumulative inspection was 6.5425 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.4656 million tons, and the inland was 43,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, although the output in the 2025/26 season has increased significantly year-on-year, the overall supply pressure is not large due to the resilient demand for cotton raw materials from downstream and the pre - sales smoothing the pressure during the listing period. The hedging pressure is also not strong. The rumor about the decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season has been confirmed, but the actual decline is still awaited. Downstream spinning mills' operation rate has decreased slightly, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large. The market is waiting for the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling situation. In the short term, the bullish sentiment has been released, and it will mainly show a contracting and oscillating trend approaching the holiday [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a contracting and oscillating trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,541 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked cotton of 41 - 31 grade, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 were mostly above 15,500 yuan on a legal weight basis. The low - basis quotes for machine - picked 31 - grade, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 in Kashgar were CF05 + 800 - 900, and those in Beijiang were mostly above 1,000, with a small amount below 1,000. The low - basis quotes for 41 - grade were mainly between 900 - 1,000, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - The sales of the pure - cotton yarn market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand and good sales of combed high - count yarn. The actual transaction price increase of some conventional products in the inland was limited, and the downstream market was resistant to price increases. Most spinning mills were still fulfilling previous orders. The sales of the cotton grey fabric market were still dull, and it was difficult to raise the fabric prices. Currently, weaving mills had insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered ones [7] 3.2 Industry News - According to Conab, as of December 27, the cotton planting rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% last week, 25.2% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 15.6% [9] - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, near the end of the year, the purchase of cotton seeds in Xinjiang had ended, while there was still a small amount of sales in the inland. The purchase price remained stable between 6.2 - 7.2 yuan/kg. As of December 28, a total of 1,088 cotton processing enterprises had undergone notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1,013 processing enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 processing enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCBI Futures [14][17][20]

1. Report Information - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton futures decreased in volume. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 15,541 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton of Grade 41 - 31, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 were mostly above 15,500 yuan on a legal weight basis. The low - basis quotes in Kashgar and Northern Xinjiang were different [7]. - **Downstream Market**: The sales of the pure - cotton yarn market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand of combed high - count yarn. The actual transaction price of some conventional products in the inland area had limited increase, and downstream resistance to price hikes was obvious. The sales of the cotton greige cloth market were still dull, and the price was difficult to follow the increase. Currently, weaving mills had insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered ones [7]. - **Domestic Market Analysis**: In the domestic market, although the output in the 2025/26 season increased significantly year - on - year, the overall supply pressure was not large due to the resilient demand for cotton raw materials from downstream and the pre - sale smoothing the pressure during the listing period. The hedging pressure was also not strong. It was confirmed that the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season would decrease. Downstream spinning mills' operating rates were stable with a slight decline, and the finished - product inventory pressure was not large. In the short term, the bullish sentiment had been released, and the market would mainly fluctuate with reduced volume approaching the holiday [8] 3. Industry News - As of December 28, 2025, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 6.2036 million tons (27,482,811 bales), an increase of 41,700 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.1306 million tons (27,157,031 bales), an increase of 41,500 tons, and the inland inspection volume was 40,800 tons (183,468 bales) [9]. - In 2025, the national cotton sown area was 44.687 million mu, an increase of 2.113 million mu (5.0% year - on - year). The unit yield was 148.6 kg/mu, an increase of 3.8 kg/mu (2.6% year - on - year). The output was 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477,000 tons (7.7% year - on - year) [9] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, various contract spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates (US dollar against RMB and Indian rupee) [14][16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton prices accelerated their rise, with more people following the trend and entering the market, quickly driving up the market price [4]. - In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10% [4][5]. - According to the ICAC November report, the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 25.4 million tons, and consumption is 25 million tons. According to the USDA November report, the production is 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons [4]. - In November, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and 25% respectively [4]. - According to the Ministry of Agriculture in December, for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - The factors driving the current rebound include a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, an increase in downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, and a significant reduction in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton due to policy regulation. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it is expected to continue the volatile upward trend, with possible corrections after a rapid rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, cotton prices accelerated their rise. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2026 is expected to be reduced by over 10%. There are multiple factors influencing the market, including changes in export tariffs, downstream inventory replenishment, and policy - related planting area adjustments [4] 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The expected reduction of over 10% in the 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area, downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period [5] - Bearish factors: A decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons compared to the previous forecast; consumption is 25.873 million tons; imports are 9.522 million tons; exports are 9.524 million tons; and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [10][11] - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [13] - **China Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton has rebounded due to a weaker US dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved weekly US cotton export data, but its upward momentum is limited, currently in a low - level consolidation. Domestic cotton prices are driven by market sentiment, with short - term expectations of a slightly bullish but limited - upside trend. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, and out - of - quota cotton import profits [1][2][18] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 63.75, reached a high of 64.81, a low of 63.48, and closed at 64.46, up 0.81 (1.27%). Volume was 52,219 lots, down 44,678 lots, and open interest was 180,943 lots, down 2,503 lots [6] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 14,045, reached a high of 14,700, a low of 14,010, and closed at 14,535, up 520 (3.71%). Volume was 1,747,852 lots, up 538,313 lots, and open interest was 903,860 lots, up 142,317 lots [6] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Opened at 20,050, reached a high of 20,720, a low of 20,045, and closed at 20,585, up 535 (2.67%). Volume was 60,104 lots, up 21,170 lots, and open interest was 23,202 lots, up 381 lots [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: A slight rebound due to favorable factors, but overall US cotton export sales are average, so it remains in a low - level consolidation [7] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending December 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 69,100 tons, a 99% week - on - week increase and a 95% increase from the four - week average. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 3,400 tons. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 30,500 tons, a 32% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecasted total exports; the cumulative export shipments were 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the total annual contracts [7] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: CCI's procurement continues. The total inventory is 944,000 tons. As of December 23, the cumulative market volume this year was 2,006,000 tons, an increase of 272,000 tons from December 17 [8] - Brazil: Planting progress is slow. As of December 20, 2025/26 cotton planting was 16.9% complete, a 6.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 3 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 3.7 percentage points slower than the three - year average [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains moderate. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a 41.5% decrease from the previous month and a 61.9% decrease year - on - year [9] - Vietnam: Sporadic purchases of imported cotton. Transactions are mainly concentrated in certified cotton such as BCI and US Cotton Trust Protocol [9] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending December 26, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 66.9%, Vietnam's was 61.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Prices and Transactions: Domestic cotton spot prices rose significantly in the week of December 26. Spot fixed - price transactions were active, mainly by traders. Spinning mills' purchases were light. As of Friday, the fixed - price quotes for 31 - 41 grade double - 29 cotton with less than 3% impurity in northern and southern Xinjiang were mostly above 15,400 - 15,500 (gross weight). The low - basis price in Kashgar was CF05 + 800 - 900, and in northern Xinjiang, the basis was mostly above 1,000 [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of December 26, there were 4,853 registered warehouse receipts and 3,834 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 8,687 receipts, equivalent to 364,854 tons [12] - Spinning Mills and Cloth Mills: The confidence of pure - cotton yarn spinning mills has been boosted, with increased willingness of traders and downstream weavers to replenish stocks, but overall it remains mainly for rigid demand. High - count yarns are in better demand, while medium - and low - count yarns have slow sales and inventory backlogs. Some enterprises reported that year - end foreign trade orders were 30% lower than the same period last year. Pure - cotton yarn prices have followed cotton prices higher, with an expected further increase of 100 - 200 yuan. The inventory pressure of spinning mills is less than in previous years. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain a high startup rate, while inland spinning mills' startup rates continue to decline. The theoretical profit of Xinjiang spinning mills is about 250 yuan/ton, and the cash flow of inland spinning mills is about - 150 yuan/ton. The all - cotton grey cloth market is still divided, with some areas having a stocking market. Weaving mills' inventory is expected to decline slightly before the Spring Festival. Orders are mainly small and scattered, and the export market is mainly for inquiries, with few actual orders [13] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 4. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to remain in low - level consolidation in the short term, with attention to external market sentiment. Domestic cotton futures and spot prices continue to strengthen, and the basis remains firm. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly bullish but with limited upside. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis changes. It is advisable to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on the discussion of Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton rebounded due to a weaker dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved weekly US cotton export data, but its upward momentum is limited, and it is currently in a low - level consolidation. In the short term, it is likely to remain in low - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to external market sentiment changes [1][7][18]. - The fundamentals of the domestic cotton market have not changed significantly. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is more affected by market sentiment, especially after breaking through 14,300. The supply of domestic cotton is sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market is not pessimistic about the full - year demand in the 2025/26 season. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 63.75, reached a high of 64.81, a low of 63.48, and closed at 64.46, up 0.81 with a 1.27% increase. Trading volume was 52,219 lots, a decrease of 44,678 lots, and open interest was 180,943 lots, a decrease of 2,503 lots [6]. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,045, reached a high of 14,700, a low of 14,010, and closed at 14,535, up 520 with a 3.71% increase. Trading volume was 1,747,852 lots, an increase of 538,313 lots, and open interest was 903,860 lots, an increase of 142,317 lots [6]. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,050, reached a high of 20,720, a low of 20,045, and closed at 20,585, up 535 with a 2.67% increase. Trading volume was 60,104 lots, an increase of 21,170 lots, and open interest was 23,202 lots, an increase of 381 lots [6]. 2. Fundamentals International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: rebounded this week but has limited upward momentum and is in a low - level consolidation [7]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending December 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 69,100 tons, a 99% week - on - week increase and a 95% increase from the four - week average. Vietnam contracted 28,400 tons, and China 20,200 tons. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 3,400 tons. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 30,500 tons, a 32% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipments were 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the annual total contracts [7]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: CCI's procurement continued. The cumulative procurement of 2025/26 season seed cotton converted to lint was 850,000 tons, and there was also 94,000 tons of 2024/25 season cotton, so the total inventory was 944,000 tons. As of December 23, the cumulative market volume in India this year was 2.006 million tons, an increase of 272,000 tons from December 17 [8]. - Brazil: Planting progress was slow. As of December 20, the 2025/26 season cotton planting in Brazil was 16.9% completed, a 6.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 3 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 3.7 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years [8]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remained moderate. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a 41.5% decrease from the previous month (76,000 tons) and a 61.9% decrease year - on - year (116,000 tons) [9]. - Vietnam: Imported cotton was sporadically purchased. The purchase was limited to a small amount of recently shipped resources, mainly focusing on certified cotton such as BCI and US Cotton Trust Protocol [9]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending December 26, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 66.9%, Vietnam's was 61.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices continued to rise, and fixed - price transactions were good. As of December 26, the first - grade cotton registered warehouse receipts were 4,853, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3,834, totaling 8,687, equivalent to 364,854 tons [12]. - Spinning mills' confidence was boosted, and the situation of fabric mills continued to diverge. The overall actual transaction price of pure - cotton yarn increased by about 200 yuan. The Xinjiang spinning mills maintained a relatively high startup rate, while the startup rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline. The full - cotton grey fabric market was still divided, and the order - receiving situation was not optimistic [13]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts related to cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, startup rates, profits, spreads, import profits, basis, and warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is likely to remain in low - level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to external market sentiment changes [18]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis. The discussion on the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is more suitable to be traded after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [18].

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices increasing for five consecutive weeks, reaching a high of 14,550.00 yuan/ton, marking a 2.36% rise and the highest level since October of the previous year [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of December 24, the imported cotton cost within the quota (1% tariff) was 12,863 yuan/ton, which is 2,408 yuan/ton lower than the domestic standard-grade cotton price. The cost of imported cotton with sliding scale tax was 13,892 yuan/ton, 1,379 yuan/ton lower than domestic prices [2] - The U.S. cotton export sales totaled 319,649 bales for the week ending December 11, with 304,689 bales for the 2025/26 season and 14,960 bales for the 2026/27 season. This marked the highest net sales since November 6, significantly exceeding the previous week's 153,606 bales [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - There is an expectation of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang, potentially decreasing by 5-7 million mu, which is over 10%. This reduction is anticipated to lead to a corresponding decrease in production, supporting future contract prices [4] - Despite a good harvest of domestic cotton this year, the sales progress of cotton from ginning factories in both southern and northern Xinjiang is reported to be rapid, with commercial inventories not significantly exceeding last year's levels [4] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is optimistic, contributing to the steady rise in cotton futures and spot prices. However, the continuous increase in cotton prices is negatively impacting the profits of downstream yarn manufacturers, and an increase in cotton yarn imports suggests that supply remains ample [4]