Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Views - The textile industry's prosperity index rebounded above the 52.47% boom-bust line in March. The ICAC's May report predicts an increase in production and a slight increase in consumption compared to the previous month, which is bearish. China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year in March. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 81.4%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.31 million tons for the 24/25 season, which is bearish [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,135 and a basis of 1,235 (for the 09 contract) indicates a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory for the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - The 20-day moving average is flat, and the K-line is near the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main force [4]. - Domestic cotton has entered the off-season for consumption, and the spot market is relatively quiet. There are rumors about Sino-US negotiations, along with interest rate and reserve requirement cuts, leading to a short-term rebound in futures, but there is significant upward pressure. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,000 in the short term [4]. - Bullish factor: The futures price is close to historical lows. Bearish factors: Decrease in foreign trade orders, increase in inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnation of exports to the US, and the European Union's introduction of import - restricting laws [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No information provided in the content 2.每日提示 - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It points out both bullish and bearish factors and provides a short - term price range prediction for the main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton [4][6]. 3.今日关注 - No information provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - Global cotton supply - demand balance data from USDA shows changes in production, consumption, exports, and ending inventory in different countries and regions from 2021/22 to 2024/25. For example, in 2024/25 (April estimate), China's production is 6.16 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons [11][19]. - China's cotton supply - demand balance data shows information such as sown area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, and ending inventory from 2022/23 to 2024/25. The estimated domestic cotton 3128B average price for 2024/25 is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton [19]. 5.持仓数据 - No information provided in the content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 ICAC:5月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费略增，偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比 增12.4%。3月份我国棉花进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。 农村部4月24/25年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。 偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14100，基差1200（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空 ...

【导语】3月进入传统需求旺季，市场行情也进入由需求驱动的关键期，上半月下游新增订单不及预期，棉纱成交不活跃，棉纺企业对棉花采购持谨慎态度，棉价上涨动能不足，呈现低位震荡走 3月棉花现货价格低位震荡，月均价下跌 3月国内棉花价格波动有限。月初因关税贸易纷争升级，棉价震荡下跌。其中3月3日美国再度对所有中国输美商品加征10%关税，而后中国对原产于美国的棉花加征15%关税，贸易壁垒升级，市 棉花需求不足，利空棉花价格 卓创资讯棉花市场分析师陈彩娟 终端需求不佳，下游织造企业、贸易企业囤货意愿不高，3月纺企新增订单跟进不足，且以小单为主，棉纱成交偏淡，旺季中棉纱库存有所上升，棉纱出货压力比较大，价格难涨，加工利润微薄 国内棉花供应宽松 卓创资讯："金三"需求成色不佳棉价低位震荡 中美互加关税之后，美棉进口成本将明显增加，价格劣势将影响中国进口美棉数量，美棉出口将面临挑战，利空美棉价格，从而给国内棉花市场带来一定压力。但由于中美棉花贸易量将减少，美 综上所述，纱厂新接订单较少，采购棉花较谨慎，3月上旬现货棉花价格有所回调。旺季棉花需求不及预期、供应端偏宽松、美棉销售承压以及新年度棉花种植面积存在增长预期，短期棉花市场 ...