1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, although the output in the 2025/26 season has increased significantly year-on-year, the overall supply pressure is not large due to the resilient demand for cotton raw materials from downstream and the pre - sales smoothing the pressure during the listing period. The hedging pressure is also not strong. The rumor about the decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season has been confirmed, but the actual decline is still awaited. Downstream spinning mills' operation rate has decreased slightly, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large. The market is waiting for the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling situation. In the short term, the bullish sentiment has been released, and it will mainly show a contracting and oscillating trend approaching the holiday [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a contracting and oscillating trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,541 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked cotton of 41 - 31 grade, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 were mostly above 15,500 yuan on a legal weight basis. The low - basis quotes for machine - picked 31 - grade, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 in Kashgar were CF05 + 800 - 900, and those in Beijiang were mostly above 1,000, with a small amount below 1,000. The low - basis quotes for 41 - grade were mainly between 900 - 1,000, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - The sales of the pure - cotton yarn market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand and good sales of combed high - count yarn. The actual transaction price increase of some conventional products in the inland was limited, and the downstream market was resistant to price increases. Most spinning mills were still fulfilling previous orders. The sales of the cotton grey fabric market were still dull, and it was difficult to raise the fabric prices. Currently, weaving mills had insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered ones [7] 3.2 Industry News - According to Conab, as of December 27, the cotton planting rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% last week, 25.2% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 15.6% [9] - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, near the end of the year, the purchase of cotton seeds in Xinjiang had ended, while there was still a small amount of sales in the inland. The purchase price remained stable between 6.2 - 7.2 yuan/kg. As of December 28, a total of 1,088 cotton processing enterprises had undergone notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1,013 processing enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 processing enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCBI Futures [14][17][20]

1. Report Information - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton futures decreased in volume. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 15,541 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton of Grade 41 - 31, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 were mostly above 15,500 yuan on a legal weight basis. The low - basis quotes in Kashgar and Northern Xinjiang were different [7]. - **Downstream Market**: The sales of the pure - cotton yarn market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand of combed high - count yarn. The actual transaction price of some conventional products in the inland area had limited increase, and downstream resistance to price hikes was obvious. The sales of the cotton greige cloth market were still dull, and the price was difficult to follow the increase. Currently, weaving mills had insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered ones [7]. - **Domestic Market Analysis**: In the domestic market, although the output in the 2025/26 season increased significantly year - on - year, the overall supply pressure was not large due to the resilient demand for cotton raw materials from downstream and the pre - sale smoothing the pressure during the listing period. The hedging pressure was also not strong. It was confirmed that the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season would decrease. Downstream spinning mills' operating rates were stable with a slight decline, and the finished - product inventory pressure was not large. In the short term, the bullish sentiment had been released, and the market would mainly fluctuate with reduced volume approaching the holiday [8] 3. Industry News - As of December 28, 2025, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 6.2036 million tons (27,482,811 bales), an increase of 41,700 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.1306 million tons (27,157,031 bales), an increase of 41,500 tons, and the inland inspection volume was 40,800 tons (183,468 bales) [9]. - In 2025, the national cotton sown area was 44.687 million mu, an increase of 2.113 million mu (5.0% year - on - year). The unit yield was 148.6 kg/mu, an increase of 3.8 kg/mu (2.6% year - on - year). The output was 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477,000 tons (7.7% year - on - year) [9] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, various contract spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates (US dollar against RMB and Indian rupee) [14][16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton prices accelerated their rise, with more people following the trend and entering the market, quickly driving up the market price [4]. - In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10% [4][5]. - According to the ICAC November report, the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 25.4 million tons, and consumption is 25 million tons. According to the USDA November report, the production is 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons [4]. - In November, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and 25% respectively [4]. - According to the Ministry of Agriculture in December, for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - The factors driving the current rebound include a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, an increase in downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, and a significant reduction in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton due to policy regulation. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it is expected to continue the volatile upward trend, with possible corrections after a rapid rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, cotton prices accelerated their rise. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2026 is expected to be reduced by over 10%. There are multiple factors influencing the market, including changes in export tariffs, downstream inventory replenishment, and policy - related planting area adjustments [4] 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The expected reduction of over 10% in the 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area, downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period [5] - Bearish factors: A decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons compared to the previous forecast; consumption is 25.873 million tons; imports are 9.522 million tons; exports are 9.524 million tons; and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [10][11] - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [13] - **China Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton has rebounded due to a weaker US dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved weekly US cotton export data, but its upward momentum is limited, currently in a low - level consolidation. Domestic cotton prices are driven by market sentiment, with short - term expectations of a slightly bullish but limited - upside trend. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, and out - of - quota cotton import profits [1][2][18] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 63.75, reached a high of 64.81, a low of 63.48, and closed at 64.46, up 0.81 (1.27%). Volume was 52,219 lots, down 44,678 lots, and open interest was 180,943 lots, down 2,503 lots [6] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 14,045, reached a high of 14,700, a low of 14,010, and closed at 14,535, up 520 (3.71%). Volume was 1,747,852 lots, up 538,313 lots, and open interest was 903,860 lots, up 142,317 lots [6] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Opened at 20,050, reached a high of 20,720, a low of 20,045, and closed at 20,585, up 535 (2.67%). Volume was 60,104 lots, up 21,170 lots, and open interest was 23,202 lots, up 381 lots [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: A slight rebound due to favorable factors, but overall US cotton export sales are average, so it remains in a low - level consolidation [7] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending December 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 69,100 tons, a 99% week - on - week increase and a 95% increase from the four - week average. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 3,400 tons. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 30,500 tons, a 32% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecasted total exports; the cumulative export shipments were 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the total annual contracts [7] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: CCI's procurement continues. The total inventory is 944,000 tons. As of December 23, the cumulative market volume this year was 2,006,000 tons, an increase of 272,000 tons from December 17 [8] - Brazil: Planting progress is slow. As of December 20, 2025/26 cotton planting was 16.9% complete, a 6.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 3 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 3.7 percentage points slower than the three - year average [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains moderate. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a 41.5% decrease from the previous month and a 61.9% decrease year - on - year [9] - Vietnam: Sporadic purchases of imported cotton. Transactions are mainly concentrated in certified cotton such as BCI and US Cotton Trust Protocol [9] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending December 26, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 66.9%, Vietnam's was 61.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Prices and Transactions: Domestic cotton spot prices rose significantly in the week of December 26. Spot fixed - price transactions were active, mainly by traders. Spinning mills' purchases were light. As of Friday, the fixed - price quotes for 31 - 41 grade double - 29 cotton with less than 3% impurity in northern and southern Xinjiang were mostly above 15,400 - 15,500 (gross weight). The low - basis price in Kashgar was CF05 + 800 - 900, and in northern Xinjiang, the basis was mostly above 1,000 [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of December 26, there were 4,853 registered warehouse receipts and 3,834 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 8,687 receipts, equivalent to 364,854 tons [12] - Spinning Mills and Cloth Mills: The confidence of pure - cotton yarn spinning mills has been boosted, with increased willingness of traders and downstream weavers to replenish stocks, but overall it remains mainly for rigid demand. High - count yarns are in better demand, while medium - and low - count yarns have slow sales and inventory backlogs. Some enterprises reported that year - end foreign trade orders were 30% lower than the same period last year. Pure - cotton yarn prices have followed cotton prices higher, with an expected further increase of 100 - 200 yuan. The inventory pressure of spinning mills is less than in previous years. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain a high startup rate, while inland spinning mills' startup rates continue to decline. The theoretical profit of Xinjiang spinning mills is about 250 yuan/ton, and the cash flow of inland spinning mills is about - 150 yuan/ton. The all - cotton grey cloth market is still divided, with some areas having a stocking market. Weaving mills' inventory is expected to decline slightly before the Spring Festival. Orders are mainly small and scattered, and the export market is mainly for inquiries, with few actual orders [13] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 4. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to remain in low - level consolidation in the short term, with attention to external market sentiment. Domestic cotton futures and spot prices continue to strengthen, and the basis remains firm. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly bullish but with limited upside. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis changes. It is advisable to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on the discussion of Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton rebounded due to a weaker dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved weekly US cotton export data, but its upward momentum is limited, and it is currently in a low - level consolidation. In the short term, it is likely to remain in low - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to external market sentiment changes [1][7][18]. - The fundamentals of the domestic cotton market have not changed significantly. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is more affected by market sentiment, especially after breaking through 14,300. The supply of domestic cotton is sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market is not pessimistic about the full - year demand in the 2025/26 season. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 63.75, reached a high of 64.81, a low of 63.48, and closed at 64.46, up 0.81 with a 1.27% increase. Trading volume was 52,219 lots, a decrease of 44,678 lots, and open interest was 180,943 lots, a decrease of 2,503 lots [6]. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,045, reached a high of 14,700, a low of 14,010, and closed at 14,535, up 520 with a 3.71% increase. Trading volume was 1,747,852 lots, an increase of 538,313 lots, and open interest was 903,860 lots, an increase of 142,317 lots [6]. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,050, reached a high of 20,720, a low of 20,045, and closed at 20,585, up 535 with a 2.67% increase. Trading volume was 60,104 lots, an increase of 21,170 lots, and open interest was 23,202 lots, an increase of 381 lots [6]. 2. Fundamentals International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: rebounded this week but has limited upward momentum and is in a low - level consolidation [7]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending December 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 69,100 tons, a 99% week - on - week increase and a 95% increase from the four - week average. Vietnam contracted 28,400 tons, and China 20,200 tons. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 3,400 tons. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 30,500 tons, a 32% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipments were 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the annual total contracts [7]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: CCI's procurement continued. The cumulative procurement of 2025/26 season seed cotton converted to lint was 850,000 tons, and there was also 94,000 tons of 2024/25 season cotton, so the total inventory was 944,000 tons. As of December 23, the cumulative market volume in India this year was 2.006 million tons, an increase of 272,000 tons from December 17 [8]. - Brazil: Planting progress was slow. As of December 20, the 2025/26 season cotton planting in Brazil was 16.9% completed, a 6.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 3 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 3.7 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years [8]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remained moderate. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a 41.5% decrease from the previous month (76,000 tons) and a 61.9% decrease year - on - year (116,000 tons) [9]. - Vietnam: Imported cotton was sporadically purchased. The purchase was limited to a small amount of recently shipped resources, mainly focusing on certified cotton such as BCI and US Cotton Trust Protocol [9]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending December 26, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 66.9%, Vietnam's was 61.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices continued to rise, and fixed - price transactions were good. As of December 26, the first - grade cotton registered warehouse receipts were 4,853, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3,834, totaling 8,687, equivalent to 364,854 tons [12]. - Spinning mills' confidence was boosted, and the situation of fabric mills continued to diverge. The overall actual transaction price of pure - cotton yarn increased by about 200 yuan. The Xinjiang spinning mills maintained a relatively high startup rate, while the startup rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline. The full - cotton grey fabric market was still divided, and the order - receiving situation was not optimistic [13]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts related to cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, startup rates, profits, spreads, import profits, basis, and warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is likely to remain in low - level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to external market sentiment changes [18]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis. The discussion on the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is more suitable to be traded after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [18].

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices increasing for five consecutive weeks, reaching a high of 14,550.00 yuan/ton, marking a 2.36% rise and the highest level since October of the previous year [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of December 24, the imported cotton cost within the quota (1% tariff) was 12,863 yuan/ton, which is 2,408 yuan/ton lower than the domestic standard-grade cotton price. The cost of imported cotton with sliding scale tax was 13,892 yuan/ton, 1,379 yuan/ton lower than domestic prices [2] - The U.S. cotton export sales totaled 319,649 bales for the week ending December 11, with 304,689 bales for the 2025/26 season and 14,960 bales for the 2026/27 season. This marked the highest net sales since November 6, significantly exceeding the previous week's 153,606 bales [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - There is an expectation of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang, potentially decreasing by 5-7 million mu, which is over 10%. This reduction is anticipated to lead to a corresponding decrease in production, supporting future contract prices [4] - Despite a good harvest of domestic cotton this year, the sales progress of cotton from ginning factories in both southern and northern Xinjiang is reported to be rapid, with commercial inventories not significantly exceeding last year's levels [4] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is optimistic, contributing to the steady rise in cotton futures and spot prices. However, the continuous increase in cotton prices is negatively impacting the profits of downstream yarn manufacturers, and an increase in cotton yarn imports suggests that supply remains ample [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: SPPOMA's production data decline supports the market. Malaysian BMD futures may rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Domestic Dalian palm oil may find support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate between 8200 - 8300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy may reduce industrial use. Brazilian soybean harvest may pressure CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term, but inventory may decrease during the Spring Festival, with limited basis fluctuation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: US crude oil price movements affect the domestic vegetable oil market. Watch if the 05 contract can stop falling between 8900 - 9000 yuan. Spot prices fluctuate slightly [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, with increased southern pickling demand. December - January prices are uncertain due to potential pandemic impact and secondary fattening. Spot market has some support from farmers' reluctance to sell. The futures market may adjust narrowly [3]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to a favorable supply outlook. Brazilian, Indian, and Thai sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic sugar futures are weak due to increased supply, and prices are likely to remain bearish [7]. 2.4 Meal Industry - US soybeans lack trading highlights, and South American new - crop soybeans have a high yield expectation. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the one - to - five spread is supported, but the upside is limited [9]. 2.5 Corn Industry - Short - term corn supply increase may pressure prices, but farmers' reluctance to sell and low - inventory enterprises' restocking needs limit the decline. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 2.6 Red Date Industry - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. Futures prices are weak, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved consumption during the peak season [17]. 2.7 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. US cotton exports showed a mixed trend. Domestic cotton has a long - term optimistic outlook but faces short - term downstream pressure. The price may face resistance around 14050 - 14100 yuan [21]. 2.8 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising gradually, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. Supply remains sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 8460 yuan, futures price (Y2605) to 8096 yuan, basis increased by 7.69% [1]. - Palm oil: Spot price in Guangdong dropped to 8380 yuan, futures price (P2605) to 8398 yuan, basis increased by 60.87% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 9570 yuan, futures price (O1605) to 9157 yuan, basis increased by 19.71% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [1]. - Spreads between different oils also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., 2605, 2603) increased slightly. Spot prices in various regions had different changes, with an overall upward trend in some areas [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - Slaughter volume increased by 2.48%, while some prices (e.g., daily strip price, piglet price) decreased slightly. Breeding profits improved [3]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Domestic futures prices of sugar showed a weakening trend, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. Import sugar prices also declined [7]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales data changed significantly, with a decrease in production and sales in some areas and an increase in imports [7]. 3.4 Meal Industry 3.4.1 Price and Basis Changes - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices had different trends, with basis changes. Imported soybean prices were stable, and the basis of some contracts increased [9]. 3.4.2 Market Factors - US soybean is under pressure from South American supply. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and market sentiment affects the spread [9]. 3.5 Corn Industry 3.5.1 Price and Inventory Changes - Corn futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and inventory in some warehouses and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Corn starch futures price increased slightly [10]. 3.5.2 Market Situation - Supply and demand factors, such as farmers' selling behavior and enterprises' procurement, affect the corn market, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 3.6 Red Date Industry 3.6.1 Price and Position Changes - Futures prices of red dates decreased slightly, and spot prices in Cangzhou had different trends. The position and the number of warehouse receipts increased [14]. 3.6.2 Market Situation - Sales area arrivals are high, but transactions are lower than expected. The market is weak in the short - term, with potential improvement during the consumption peak [17]. 3.7 Cotton Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Domestic cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly. ICE cotton futures rose [21]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - Commercial and industrial inventories, import volume, and other indicators changed, with downstream inventory accumulation and marginal profit deterioration [21]. 3.8 Egg Industry 3.8.1 Price and Basis Changes - Egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - related prices (e.g., egg - chick price, culled - hen price) had different trends [23]. 3.8.2 Market Situation - Egg supply is sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price in 2026 is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. The international cotton supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and the demand remains unoptimistic. The cotton supply and demand in China in the 2025/26 season are likely to be strong. Due to sufficient supply both internationally and domestically, there is a lack of upward drivers for cotton prices, but the downside space is limited. The cotton futures of both domestic and international markets are expected to continue the range - bound oscillation trend of 2025. [2][85][86] - It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy, combined with on - exchange and off - exchange option operations. [3][86] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Cotton Futures Market Review - In 2025, most of the time, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) cotton futures traded within a narrow range of 13,200 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and ICE cotton futures was generally low in 2025, and the pricing of domestic cotton futures became more independent. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and the Shanghai Composite Index was high at certain stages in 2025, indicating that the CZCE cotton futures were affected by external market sentiment. The basis of domestic cotton in 2025 was generally strong. [5][6] 2. 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 2.1 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply - The global cotton supply in 2026 is expected to be loose. The global cotton output in the 2025/26 season is at a relatively high level, mainly due to the significant increase in cotton production in China and Brazil for the second consecutive year. The supply of major cotton - exporting countries is expected to remain stable, but Brazil and the United States face greater export pressure. [13][14][24] - The planting intentions of major cotton - producing countries in 2026 need attention. Brazil's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season is not expected to decrease, but if there is inventory backlog, it may affect future planting enthusiasm. The cotton - to - grain ratio in the United States is at a historical low, and U.S. cotton exports may affect the 2026 cotton planting area. India's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be slightly reduced, and it is necessary to pay attention to its textile and clothing exports and cotton imports. [29][35][40] 2.2 2026 Global Cotton Market Demand - The global cotton consumption outlook remains unoptimistic. The USDA estimates that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.88 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the 2024/25 season. The global textile and clothing trade volume in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, but there is a risk of a decline in global trade volume. The direct cotton demand of major textile - producing countries is restricted by weak terminal demand and operational difficulties of textile enterprises. [44][48][50] 3. 2026 China Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 3.1 2026 China Cotton Supply - The total cotton supply in China in 2026 is expected to be sufficient. China's cotton output in 2025 increased significantly for the second consecutive year. The cotton and cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase slightly. The initial inventory of cotton in the new season is low, and the supply pressure is postponed to after March 2026. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to remain stable. [57][58][61] 3.2 2026 China Cotton Consumption - The terminal textile and clothing consumption situation is not optimistic, but the direct cotton demand for textile production is expected to be stable. The continuous release of new textile production capacity will support the domestic cotton demand, but attention should be paid to the profit and inventory status of textile enterprises. [66][67][76]

Group 1: Report Overview - **Report Title**: 2026 Annual Resource Product Strategy Report [1] - **Report Institute**: Everbright Futures Research Institute [2] - **Report Date**: December 2025 [2] Group 2: Sugar Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE raw sugar futures price declined by 21.62% throughout the year due to the global sugar production entering a bumper - harvest cycle. The price fluctuated between 14 - 20 cents/lb [7][11]. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with an annual decline of 9.41%. The price of the main contract fluctuated between 5330 - 6200 yuan/ton [7][14]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: Globally, the 2025/26 sugar - making season has abundant supply. In Brazil, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, with a slight decrease in cane crushing volume but a 2.09% increase in sugar production due to a high sugar - making ratio. The estimated sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be flat or slightly higher. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 3435 million tons of sugar, with a net output of 3095 million tons after deducting ethanol production. In Thailand, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 1140 million tons of sugar, and exports are expected to return to 600 million tons. Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to recover, with an estimated output of 1170 million tons [8][19][50][70][90]. - **Demand**: Globally, sugar consumption is mediocre. Domestically, sugar consumption lacks highlights and has a weakening effect on price support [8][110]. - **Price**: Internationally, the raw sugar price is expected to operate at a medium - low level, with the main operating range between 13.5 - 19.5 cents/lb. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, with the main operating range of futures prices between 5100 - 5700 yuan/ton [8][111][113]. Group 3: Cotton Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE cotton futures price was affected by tariffs throughout the year, with the main contract price operating between 60.8 - 69.75 cents/lb. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was also affected by tariffs, with the main contract price operating between 12315 - 14375 yuan/ton [116]. 2026 Market Analysis - **International Market**: Macroeconomic disturbances continue, with supply slightly exceeding demand. Key factors to focus on include the interest - rate cut rhythm, geopolitical conflicts, US cotton exports, and new - year planting intentions. The estimated operating range of ICE cotton is 60 - 75 cents/lb [117][212]. - **Domestic Market**: The inflation data is gradually rising month - on - month. The 2026/27 cotton production may decline, providing support for cotton prices. The estimated operating range of domestic cotton futures prices is 13500 - 15500 yuan/ton [117][214]. Group 4: Urea Market 2025 Market Review - **Supply**: The industry's new production capacity in 2025 was 591 million tons, with the production capacity base exceeding 80 million tons. The annual output was about 7171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88%. - **Demand**: The annual consumption was about 6220 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. - **Price**: The futures and spot prices were at five - year lows, and the annual export volume was expected to be close to 500 million tons [218]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: The industry's production capacity growth rate in 2026 will reach 10.82%, and the annual output may be close to 7600 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.82%. - **Demand**: Agricultural consumption is still the core area, with a growth rate of about 5% in 2026, driving the annual consumption to about 6834 million tons. - **Price**: The central operating range of urea futures prices in 2026 will continue to move down slightly, with the main operating range around 1650 ± 200 yuan/ton [219][295]. Group 5: Soda Ash and Glass Market 2025 Market Review - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity increased by 15.37%, the output growth rate slowed to 1.69%, the demand decreased by 2.88% to about 3422 million tons, and the export volume was expected to exceed 210 million tons. The main - contract futures price continuously reached new lows since listing. - **Glass**: The annual output was 5734 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 7%. The annual consumption was about 5600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. The futures price once reached a ten - year low [297]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity growth rate will slow down to 0.58%, the output will increase by 5.6% to 4100 million tons, the demand will decrease by 0.19% to about 3415 million tons, and the export volume is expected to reach 230 - 250 million tons. The central operating range of futures prices will move down to 1000 ± 200 yuan/ton. - **Glass**: The output will decrease by 2% to 5620 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 3% to about 5430 million tons, and the central operating range of futures prices is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [298].