ANRPC最新发布的2025年6月报告预测，6月全球天胶产量料降1.5%至119.1万吨，较上月增加14.5%；天胶消费量 料增0.7%至127.1万吨，较上月增加0.1%。上半年，全球天胶累计产量料降1.1%至607.6万吨，累计消费量则增1% 至771.5万吨。 化工日报 | 2025-08-12 青岛港口库存降幅增加 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15755元/吨，较前一日变动+205元/吨。NR主力合约12620元/吨，较前一日变动+215 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14750元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14580元/吨， 较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1805美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1755美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11700元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署8月7日公布的数据显示，2025年7月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计63.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to increased precipitation in production areas affecting the tapping process and a de - stocking trend in inventory. Synthetic rubber prices may fluctuate as the bearish market sentiment is digested. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of natural rubber at 14,800 - 15,000 and 15,700 - 16,000 respectively, and those of butadiene rubber at 10,800 - 11,000 and 11,800 - 12,000 respectively [1] Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - **Natural Rubber**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price was 15,495, up 950 from the previous day; the trading volume was 261,478 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 183,004 lots, down 2.24%; the registered warrant volume was 176,470, down 40; the basis was - 1,020, down 950; the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was - 125, up 25; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was - 150, unchanged; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 175, unchanged; the near - month to continuous - first month spread was - 75, up 5; the continuous - first to continuous - second month spread was - 30, down 20; the continuous - first to continuous - third month spread was - 25, unchanged [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price was 11,505, down 10; the trading volume was 51,579 lots, down 2,366; the open interest of the active futures contract was 28,087 lots, down 2,345; the registered warrant volume was 10,310, down 230; the basis was - 138.33, up 10; the North - East China butadiene rubber spread was unchanged; the South - East China butadiene rubber spread was - 50, unchanged; the near - month to continuous - first month spread was 55, up 85; the continuous - first to continuous - second month spread was - 5, up 10; the continuous - first to continuous - third month spread was - 20, down 5 [1] Supply Side - **Natural Rubber**: In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major production areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Thailand issuing a heavy rain warning. In domestic production areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, etc., while Hainan has less precipitation [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week. As of August 6, the daily post - tax profit margin of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion paint method was - 300.88 yuan/ton, down 154.86 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of China's S8S solution paint method was 522.12 yuan/ton, down 141.6 yuan/ton from the previous day; the post - tax profit margin of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process was - 1,141.58 yuan/ton, down 176.99 yuan/ton from the previous day. Synthetic rubber - related product devices are relatively stable [1] Inventory Side - **Natural Rubber**: As of August 1, 2025, the weekly total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, down 2,380 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 413,600 tons, down 6,100 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 87,700 tons, down 1,200 tons from last week [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, up 142 tons from last week [1] Cost Side - **Natural Rubber**: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and major domestic and foreign production areas have fully started tapping. As of August 6, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 54 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September. Coupled with the decline in US employment data, crude oil prices are expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw material butadiene has decreased. As of August 6, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 342.5 yuan/ton, up 62.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of August 6, 2025, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 14,700 tons, up 4,300 tons from last week [1] Demand Side - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, down 3.94% from last week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 74.63%, down 0.87% from last week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail volume of the national automobile market was 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in June was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales volume of trucks in China in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. Tire supporting demand has increased [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has loosened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of cis - butadiene rubber have both risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. With short - term shutdown and maintenance expected for some plants and a possible restart of others, supply is expected to decrease slightly. However, due to weak demand expectations, production enterprise inventories may still increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, with limited upward space. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2509 contract is expected to be between 11,400 - 11,700 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract's open interest is 28,087, a decrease of 2,345. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 现货市场 - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 820 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.12 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 67.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.63 US dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 65.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.2%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 72.46%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons. The weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.262 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.523 million pieces, an increase of 108,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, a decrease of 1.5 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber export volume is 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%. From January to June 2025, the total export volume is 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber import volume is 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%. From January to June 2025, the total import volume is 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber may fluctuate due to increased precipitation in production areas affecting the tapping process and the decline in tire operating rates. The price of synthetic rubber may fluctuate weakly due to the decrease in raw material costs and inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of natural rubber was 15,585. The trading volume on August 1 was 329,655 lots, and the open interest on the same day was 211,258 lots. The registered warrant volume on August 4 was 176,640 [1]. - The basis of natural rubber showed different spreads in different regions. For example, the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -50 on August 4, and the Shandong - Shanghai spread was 50 [1]. - The monthly spreads of natural rubber, such as near - month to continuous - first, continuous - first to continuous - second, and continuous - first to continuous - third, also had corresponding changes [1]. Synthetic Rubber Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of synthetic rubber was 12,415. The trading volume on August 1 was 73,266 lots, and the open interest on the same day was 49,311 lots. The registered warrant volume on August 4 was 10,540 [1]. - The basis of synthetic rubber and its monthly spreads also had specific changes [1]. Supply - side Situation - In natural rubber production areas, there will be precipitation in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and domestic areas such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan in the coming days, with less precipitation in Hainan [1]. - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, the same as last week. The operation of synthetic rubber - related product plants remained relatively stable [1]. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 19,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 88,900 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week [1]. - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, an increase of 12 tons from last week [1]. Cost - side Situation - Global natural rubber supply has entered the peak season, and major domestic and foreign production areas are fully tapped. On August 4, 2025, the purchase price of glue in the Hat Yai market, Songkhla Province, Thailand was 62 Thai baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in the Hainan market was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 650 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - OPEC+ decided to increase production in September. Coupled with the decline in employment data, the crude oil price is expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw materials has decreased. As of August 4, 2025, the average daily price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 7,022.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Demand - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, a decrease of 3.94% from last week, and the weekly operating rate of Chinese semi - steel tires was 74.63%, a decrease of 0.87% from last week [1]. - In June, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales of passenger cars were 2.336 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales of trucks were 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. The demand for tire matching has increased [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for natural rubber (RU and NR) is neutral. The rating for butadiene rubber (BR) is also neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the cost - side support has weakened as rainfall in Thailand's main production areas has decreased and raw material output has rebounded. Although the recent arrival volume in China has declined, demand is weak due to reduced raw material procurement by tire factories and a slight increase in finished - product inventory. After the macro - environment weakens, the supply - demand situation of natural rubber returns to a weak pattern [4] - For butadiene rubber, the supply will continue to increase as some plants have restarted and private plants have increased their production loads. Demand is weak, with reduced raw material procurement by tire factories and a slight increase in finished - product inventory. Some tire enterprises have maintenance plans, which may lead to a decline in tire operating rates. The supply - demand situation of butadiene rubber is weak [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,560 yuan/ton, a change of - 385 yuan/ton from the previous day. The NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 400 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,250 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was $1,760/ton, a change of - $35/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was $1,710/ton, a change of - $15/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Natural rubber imports in China: In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first half of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.386 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 804,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%; smoked sheet exports were 196,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%; latex exports were 377,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Exports to China totaled 557,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 355,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 57,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 307%; latex exports to China totaled 143,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 77% [2] - Passenger car market: In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] - European replacement tire market: In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 31, 2025, the RU basis was - 10 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 310 yuan/ton (- 85), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 4,701 yuan/ton (+ 399.82), the NR basis was 308.00 yuan/ton (+ 59.00). The price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 400), the price of mixed rubber was 14,250 yuan/ton (- 300), the price of 3L spot was 14,650 yuan/ton (- 250). The STR20 was quoted at $1,760/ton (- 35). The spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (- 150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,150 yuan/ton (- 100) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.33 baht/kg (- 0.26), the price of Thai latex was 54.50 baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.70 baht/kg (- 0.80), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 6.80 baht/kg (+ 0.30) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.26% (- 2.97%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.98% (- 0.08%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,702 tons (+ 4,602.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 640,384 tons (+ 5,798), the RU futures inventory was 182,020 tons (- 4,620), and the NR futures inventory was 37,398 tons (+ 707) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 31, 2025, the BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (- 20), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0). The price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,800 yuan/ton (- 300), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (- 350), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 1,409 yuan/ton (- 200) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.46% (+ 4.73%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,520 tons (+ 50), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,800 tons (- 1,050) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - In the context of not-high valuation, rubber prices have shown a continuous rebound pattern driven by a warm market atmosphere, mainly following the macro logic. The price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to rise, and the supply rebound pressure is expected to be limited. The downstream demand remains stable, and it is expected that rubber prices will continue the rebound trend, with the focus on the actual improvement of demand later. The supply of BR is showing a rebound trend, and its own supply-demand pattern is weak. The price of synthetic rubber is lower than that of natural rubber, and the downstream replacement demand is still supported. The focus is on the price change of upstream butadiene raw materials later [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,245 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 13,120 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan/ton. Spot: The Shanghai market price of Yunnan-produced whole latex was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton; the ex-factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.21% and a year-on-year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with 672,600 tons in the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year-on-year and 13.3% month-on-month. In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 24, 2025, the RU basis was -45 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 345 yuan/ton (-60), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -5,115 yuan/ton (+547.16), the NR basis was 86.00 yuan/ton (-65.00); the whole latex was 15,200 yuan/ton (+250), the mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+300), the 3L spot was 15,050 yuan/ton (+200). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+40), the spread between the whole latex and the 3L was 150 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between the mixed rubber and the styrene-butadiene rubber was 2,600 yuan/ton (+100). - Raw materials: The Thai smoked sheet was 65.59 Thai baht/kg (-0.78), the Thai latex was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the Thai cup lump was 50.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.05), the difference between the Thai latex and the cup lump was 5.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.05). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 62.23% (+0.25%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 70.06% (+1.93%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,289,100 tons (-6,053.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (-1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (-2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (-303) [3] BR - Spot and spreads: On July 24, 2025, the BR basis was -485 yuan/ton (-310), the ex-factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,700 yuan/ton (+100), the BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was quoted at 12,200 yuan/ton (+200), the BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was quoted at 11,900 yuan/ton (+150), the private BR in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (+50), the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was -862 yuan/ton (+66). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high-cis BR was 67.63% (+3.31%). - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7,470 tons (+870), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 24,850 tons (-800) [3] Strategy - RU is neutral, and NR is neutral. Recently, rubber mainly follows the macro logic. Against the background of not-high valuation, the price shows a continuous rebound pattern driven by the warm market atmosphere. BR is neutral. Recently, the BR units of Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin have restarted, and Yanshan Petrochemical is also expected to have restarted this week. The supply shows a month-on-month rebound trend [4][5]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data of Natural Rubber Futures Active Contracts - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 15,245, a change of 240 from the previous day. The trading volume was 522,391 lots, and the open interest was 210,844 lots. The registered warrant volume was 186,680, a decrease of 20 from the previous day. The natural rubber basis was - 270, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [1]. 2. Market Data of Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contracts - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 12,285, an increase of 410 from the previous day. The trading volume was 148,642 lots, and the open interest was 48,828 lots. The registered warrant volume was 9,840, unchanged from the previous day. The synthetic rubber basis was - 535, a decrease of 343.33 from the previous day [1]. 3. Supply - side Situation - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber - producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam will be stable with less precipitation, while Indonesia will have more precipitation. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. As of July 24, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.43%, an increase of 3.21% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week [1]. 4. Inventory - side Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the total weekly warrant inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212,920 tons, a decrease of 670 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 91,900 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from last week. As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 12,796 tons, an increase of 150 tons from last week [1]. 5. Cost - side Situation - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major domestic and foreign producing areas are fully tapped. As of July 24, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 55.3 baht per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day. The daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 15,600 yuan per ton, an increase of 150 yuan per ton from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction in crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased [1]. 6. Demand - side Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, a decrease of 0.08% from last week, and that of semi - steel tires in China was 76.58%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.804 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in June was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales volume of trucks in China in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. The tire matching demand has increased [1]. 7. Price Support and Pressure Levels - For natural rubber, pay attention to the support level around 14,000 - 14,200 and the pressure level around 16,000 - 16,300. For butadiene, pay attention to the support level around 11,300 - 11,600 and the pressure level around 12,600 - 12,800 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, rubber prices are mainly driven by macro - logic. With a relatively low valuation, prices have shown a continuous rebound pattern under the influence of a warm market atmosphere. The future trend depends on the change of the macro - atmosphere [4] - Fundamentally, domestic latex profit is better than that of making dry rubber from glue. Affected by rainfall in domestic main - producing areas, the increase of full - latex is slow, and raw material prices strongly support domestic rubber prices. In Thailand, heavy rainfall in the northeast has made cup - rubber prices strong, and the price gap between glue and cup - rubber has continued to narrow. Rainy weather will continue to disrupt raw material output in the short term. With the slowdown of arrivals in China in July, the pressure of supply increase is limited. The profit of Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is still in a loss pattern, reducing the import pressure in China. Downstream demand remains stable without substantial highlights. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, rubber prices are expected to continue the rebound trend, and the focus will be on the substantial improvement of the demand side in the future [5] - For BR, the butadiene rubber plants of Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin have restarted, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart this week, so the supply shows a month - on - month increase. After the previous maintenance of downstream tire factories, the operating rate has rebounded, but it is difficult to continue to rise without bright spots in terminal demand. The supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber is weak. Currently, the price of synthetic rubber is lower than that of natural rubber, and there is still support for downstream substitution demand. The future focus is on the price change of upstream butadiene raw materials [5] Summary by Directory Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,005 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,775 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire was 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with 672,600 tons in the same period of 2024. The export volume in June increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, in June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 55 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 405 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 5,652 yuan/ton (+16.01), the NR basis was 151.00 yuan/ton (+0.00); the price of full - latex was 14,950 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between full - latex and 3L was 100 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,500 yuan/ton (- 50) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 66.37 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20), the price of Thai glue was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), the price of Thai cup - rubber was 49.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.30) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,289,100 tons (- 6,053.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On July 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 928 yuan/ton (- 88) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,470 tons (+870), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,850 tons (- 800) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may fluctuate strongly due to slight inventory reduction and rising tire demand. The price of synthetic rubber may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improvement of the macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and synthetic rubber [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 15060, up 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 567016 hands, an increase of 128226 hands; the open interest was 216311 hands, a decrease of 1817 hands; the registered warrant volume remained unchanged at 186620 [1]. Natural Rubber Basis - The natural rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 85, a decrease of 65 from the previous day. The daily price difference between Tianjin - Shanghai, Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF remained unchanged, while the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily price difference increased by 100 [1]. Natural Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of natural rubber was - 50, a decrease of 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 5, an increase of 5; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was - 15, a decrease of 15 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 12100, up 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 121387 hands, an increase of 34371 hands; the open interest was 49351 hands, an increase of 34358 hands; the registered warrant volume was 9850, an increase of 150 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Basis - The synthetic rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 341.67, a decrease of 88.34 from the previous day. The price difference between North China - East China and South China - East China of butadiene rubber decreased by 25 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of synthetic rubber was 15, a decrease of 10; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract remained unchanged at 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 20 [1]. Supply Side - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia is stable with less precipitation, while there is precipitation in domestic producing areas. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber increased by 0.47% to 63.22%, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.6% to 78.79%. The daily after - tax gross profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization process increased by 4.25 yuan/ton, and that of SBS solution coagulation process increased by 70.8 yuan/ton. The after - tax gross profit of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process remained unchanged [1]. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.67 thousand tons to 212.92 thousand tons; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.12 million tons to 11.37 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased by 123 tons to 12640 tons [1]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. As of July 22, 2025, the glue purchase price in Thailand increased by 0.3 baht/kg, and that in Hainan increased by 100 yuan/ton. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, the oil price volatility returns to shock, the price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased, and the weekly inventory of butadiene ports decreased by 3.6 thousand tons to 20 thousand tons [1]. Demand Side - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 0.54% to 65.08%, and that of semi - steel tires in China increased by 3.07% to 75.62%. In June 2025, the retail volume of the national automobile market, passenger car sales, and truck sales all increased compared with the previous month, and the tire matching demand increased [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and for BR is also cautiously bullish [4][6] Group 2: Core Views - The market atmosphere is warm, driving the improvement of demand expectations, and the rubber price continues the rebound trend. The profit of domestic latex is still better than that of making dry rubber from glue, and the increase of full latex is slow due to rainfall interference in domestic main producing areas. The raw material price strongly supports the domestic rubber price. The supply - side disturbances and the warm macro - atmosphere lead to the recent rebound of rubber prices. In the short term, the supply recovery pressure is limited, and the import pressure in China has decreased. The downstream semi - steel tire start - up rate has rebounded, but the terminal demand has no bright spots. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, it is expected that the rubber price will continue the rebound trend, and the substantial improvement of the demand side should be focused on later [4][5] - For BR, the supply shows a month - on - month recovery trend, and the downstream tire factory start - up rate has rebounded after the previous maintenance, but it is difficult to continue to rise later. The supply pressure of upstream butadiene raw materials has decreased, and it is expected to maintain a strong operation, providing strong cost support for BR. The strong natural rubber makes the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to expand, and the downstream replacement demand also supports BR [6] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - RU main contract closed at 15,060 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,855 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton. Yunnan - produced full latex in Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] Automobile Sales Data - In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 410 yuan/ton (+ 85), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,633 yuan/ton (+ 179.38), NR basis was 124.00 yuan/ton (- 35.00); full latex was 15,000 yuan/ton (+ 150), mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 80), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between full latex and 3L was 150 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,550 yuan/ton (+ 80) [3] - **Raw Materials**: Thai smoked sheet was 66.57 baht/kg (- 0.05), Thai glue was 54.80 baht/kg (+ 0.30), Thai cup lump was 49.75 baht/kg (+ 0.45), the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+ 0.87%), and that of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+ 2.34%) [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, BR basis was - 200 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 840 yuan/ton (- 164) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3] Group 5: Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. For BR, also be cautiously bullish [4][6]