1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the upcoming downstream traditional peak season [8] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,885 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,885 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Market Information - Global natural rubber: In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption was expected to drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] - China's heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume was about 84,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, the import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 885 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (-5), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.29 baht/kg (+0.31), the price of Thai glue was 55.60 baht/kg (+0), and the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 baht/kg (+0.10) [5] -开工率：The full - steel tire operating rate was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.97% (-0.90%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (-5,911 tons), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908 tons), etc. [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (-65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [7] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 7,260 tons (+640 tons), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,650 tons (-450 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the downstream traditional peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may slightly improve, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for both RU and NR, as well as for BR [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue. The inventories at Qingdao Port and in the society are showing a slight downward trend. With the upcoming traditional peak season for downstream industries, attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories [8] - For BR, some devices have maintenance plans in September, and the overall supply - demand situation may show a slight improvement. The inventory is expected to remain stable, and there is still cost - side support [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,680 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: From January to July 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: From January to July 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] - China's rubber tire exports: From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 1, 2025, the RU basis was - 910 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,060 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,274 yuan/ton (up 49.74 yuan), the NR basis was 375 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 Thai baht/kg (down 0.10 Thai baht), the price of Thai latex was 55.45 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (up 0.55 Thai baht), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (down 0.55 Thai baht) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.89% (down 0.08%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.97% (down 0.90%) [5] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,270,809 tons (down 14,554 tons), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (down 3,908 tons), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (up 170 tons), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (up 805 tons) [6][7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 1, 2025, the BR basis was - 45 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,293 yuan/ton (down 217 yuan) [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 75.85% (up 6.70%) [7] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,620 tons (down 790 tons), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,100 tons (up 1,900 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue. Monitor the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories during the peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - side support still exists [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for natural rubber is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is affected by continuous disturbances in the weather of the producing areas, with strong cost support. The inventory in the middle reaches has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated slightly. The sentiment in the commodity market is weak, so it may maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply in domestic, Thai, and Vietnamese producing areas is tight due to weather disturbances, driving up raw material prices [3] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in the next period [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 24, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [3][102] - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread has slightly widened, and the RU - NR spread has slightly narrowed [3] - **Profit**: The theoretical production profits of Thai standard rubber, Hainan concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber have all shown losses [3] - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still high [3] - **Commodity Market**: The overall atmosphere is bearish as it approaches the 09 - contract delivery, and the previous hype sentiment has cooled down [3] - **Investment View**: It is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on BR and short on NR [3] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, natural rubber has maintained an oscillating performance. The supply is less than expected, the raw material price is high, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the market sentiment is weak [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have rebounded slightly [9] - **Position on the Disk**: The total position of NR has increased significantly [23] - **Spread on the Disk**: The RU1 - 9 spread has declined [31] Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Weather in Producing Areas**: Rainfall in the producing areas continues to cause disturbances [39] - **Output of Major Producing Countries**: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63] - **Export Volume of Major Producing Countries**: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73] - **China's Import**: From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%). In July, the import volume increased slightly month - on - month [86][101] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [102] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has fluctuated slightly and is expected to decline slightly in the next period [118] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [124] - **Tire Exports**: From January to July, China's rubber tire exports were 5.34 million tons (+4.9%) [134] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber is in the red, while the production profit of Thai latex is stable [142]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7]. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the support mainly comes from the cost side and the macro - environment. With the weakening of the macro - market, rubber prices may face adjustment pressure. The supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not prominent. The cost - side support is further strengthened due to rainfall interference in upstream areas. There is an expectation of increased arrivals in the later period, and there may be pressure on Qingdao ports to accumulate inventory again. It is expected that the domestic supply and demand will show a pattern of both being strong later [7]. - For BR, the upstream production is stable and the inventory is relatively low year - on - year. The improvement of downstream production profits is conducive to the increase of the operating rate. The cost side of BR still has support. The upstream supply of BR is abundant, and the supply increases month - on - month. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, and there is expected to be inventory accumulation pressure later. Currently, BR production continues to be in a loss pattern, and the upstream butadiene raw material price and the surrounding natural rubber prices support the lower limit of BR [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,945 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,780 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,980 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first 7 months of 2025 totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2]. - China's natural rubber imports in July 2025 were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2]. - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports in the first 7 months of 2025 were 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2]. - China's rubber tire exports in the first 7 months of 2025 reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. Automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 28, 2025, the RU basis was - 945 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,095 yuan/ton (+35), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,269 yuan/ton (+337.62), the NR basis was 296.00 yuan/ton (- 31.00); the price of whole latex was 15,000 yuan/ton (+200), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+150), the price of 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (+150). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,350 yuan/ton (+150) [4]. - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 61.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.69), the price of Thai glue was 55.45 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.75 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [4]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.89% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.97% (- 0.90%) [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,270,809 tons (- 14,554.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 606,203 tons (- 10,528), the RU futures inventory was 178,470 tons (- 1,460), and the NR futures inventory was 44,857 tons (- 1,612) [5]. BR - Spot and spreads: On August 28, 2025, the BR basis was - 130 yuan/ton (- 120), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton (+200), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,750 yuan/ton (+200), the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,068 yuan/ton (+211) [6]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 75.85% (+6.70%) [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 6,620 tons (- 790), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25,100 tons (+1,900) [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are cautiously bullish [5] - BR is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The upstream main producing areas at home and abroad are still in the rainy season, with limited raw material output and expected to maintain a strong price pattern. After the rain stops, the output may increase again. There is an expectation of an increase in the arrival volume at the end of August in China, and the Qingdao port is expected to face the pressure of re - accumulating inventory. However, the purchasing intention of downstream tire factories before the peak season also needs to be considered. It is expected that the domestic supply and demand will show a pattern of both prosperity in the later stage. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of supply and the warm macro - atmosphere [5] - The upstream production of BR is stable and the inventory is low year - on - year. The improvement of downstream production profit is conducive to the increase of the operating rate. It is expected that the butadiene raw material will maintain a strong pattern, and the cost side of BR still has support. The upstream supply of BR is abundant, and the supply increases month - on - month as the number of overhaul devices decreases. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory in the later stage. At present, the production of BR continues to be in a loss pattern, and the short - term firm price of the upstream butadiene raw material and the surrounding natural rubber prices support the lower price of BR [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,905 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,785 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 12,010 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, the rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared with 794,831 tons in the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including export and new - energy models, an increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%, in a state of restorative improvement. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month respectively. The recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old operating trucks, and the new - energy purchase subsidy policies promoted the mild recovery of the industry [3] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; the import of truck and bus tires increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; the import of aircraft tires decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000; the import of motorcycle tires increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; the import of bicycle tires increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On August 25, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,055 yuan/ton (- 130), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 1,055 yuan/ton (+ 30), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,612 yuan/ton (+ 149.53), the NR basis was 363.00 yuan/ton (+ 60.00); the whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 150), the mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 250), the 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (+ 150). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+ 35), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,550 yuan/ton (+ 250) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 62.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75), the price of Thai glue was 55.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.85 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.97% (+ 2.35%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.87% (+ 2.76%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+ 7,504.00), the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Port was 606,203 tons (- 10,528), the RU futures inventory was 178,470 tons (- 1,460), and the NR futures inventory was 44,857 tons (- 1,612) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spread: On August 25, 2025, the BR basis was - 110 yuan/ton (- 50), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 250), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 972 yuan/ton (+ 163) [5] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.15% (+ 4.63%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,410 tons (+ 420), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,200 tons (- 250) [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][13][24] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2][13][24] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2][13][24] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On August 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,660, down 115 from the previous day and 155 from the weekly comparison; the open interest was 35,755, a daily decrease of 2,681 but a weekly increase of 15,399; the trading volume was 89,334, down 17,547 from the previous day but up 26,069 from the weekly comparison; the warrant quantity was 12,190, unchanged from the previous day but up 1,720 from the weekly comparison; the long - short ratio was 14.67, a daily decrease of 1 but a weekly increase of 5 [3][14][25]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene styrene basis was 590, a daily increase of 205; the 8 - 9 spread was 145, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 80; the 9 - 10 spread was 20, a daily increase of 40 and a weekly increase of 25 [3][14][25]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,700, down 50 from the previous day but unchanged from the weekly comparison; the Transfar market price was 11,650, down 50 from the previous day but up 50 from the weekly comparison; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day but up 100 from the weekly comparison; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,725, unchanged from the previous day but down 10 from the weekly comparison [3][14][25]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 1, with a daily increase of 62 and a weekly increase of 36; the on - screen processing profit was 41, a daily decrease of 3 but a weekly decrease of 119; the import profit was - 82,362, a daily decrease of 108 and a weekly decrease of 790; the export profit was - 420, a daily increase of 49 but a weekly decrease of 2 [3][14][25]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 9,315, down 110 from the previous day and 35 from the weekly comparison; the Jiangsu market price was 9,250, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from the weekly comparison; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, unchanged; CFR China was 1,080, unchanged from the previous day but up 10 from the weekly comparison [3][14][25]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit data was unavailable; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 156, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 50; the import profit was 337, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 129; the export profit was - 945, a daily increase of 91 and a weekly increase of 114 [3][14][25]. Downstream Products - **Production Profits**: The butadiene rubber production profit was - 41, a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 119; the butadiene styrene production profit was 938, unchanged from the previous day but up 100 from the weekly comparison; the ABS production profit data was unavailable; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 1,145, unchanged [3][14][25]. Inter - and Intra - Product Spreads - **Inter - Product Spreads**: The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,900, a daily increase of 30 but a weekly decrease of 50; the 3L - butadiene styrene spread was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 50 [3][14][25]. - **Intra - Product Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard spread was 200, a daily increase of 50 but unchanged from the weekly comparison; the butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged [3][14][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain ends. Current supply pressure is small, but domestic supply is expected to increase at the end of August. Tire开工率 is divided, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase next week. Tire开工率 is divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire开工率 has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,530 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import and Export - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires from January to July was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] Sales - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Production and Sales - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery driven by factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old commercial vehicles, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] US Tire Imports - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 1，320,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 925 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,145 yuan/ton (-80), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,098 yuan/ton (+124.98), the NR basis was 288 yuan/ton (+62). The price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (-150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton (-120), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,795 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (-100), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,230 yuan/ton (-120) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.60 Thai baht/kg (-1.25), the price of Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.35 Thai baht/kg (-0.45), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.45) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+2.56%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (-0.60%) [4] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (-3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 265 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton (-250), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (-150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,201 yuan/ton (-203) [5] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (-250) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to the typhoon affecting the rubber tapping process in some producing areas, while synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate as the upstream raw material price support is insufficient but the automobile production and sales data is stronger than expected. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 15,905, the trading volume was 404,764 lots, the open interest was 186,459 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 179,930. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 270, the trading volume increased by 22,582 lots, the open interest increased by 4,607 lots, and the registered warrant volume increased by 860 [2]. - The natural rubber basis was -1,180, a decrease of 395 compared with the previous day. The Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, a decrease of 25 compared with the previous day; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, unchanged from the previous day; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 75, an increase of 50 compared with the previous day [2]. - The natural rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was -145, a decrease of 360 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -15, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was -40, a decrease of 35 compared with the previous day [2]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 11,815, the trading volume was 63,265 lots, the open interest was 20,356 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 10,470. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 170, the trading volume decreased by 4,888 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,317 lots, and the registered warrant volume remained unchanged [2]. - The synthetic rubber basis was -248.33, a decrease of 170 compared with the previous day. The North China - East China butadiene rubber spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the South China - East China butadiene rubber spread was -50, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The synthetic rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was 65, a decrease of 190 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -5, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 5, an increase of 5 compared with the previous day [2]. Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In domestic producing areas, affected by the typhoon, there will be heavy precipitation in Hainan, Guangxi, and other places, and also precipitation in Yunnan and other places. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.91%, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the previous week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.71%, an increase of 1.39% compared with the previous week [2]. Inventory Side - As of August 15, 2025, the weekly warrant total inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 213,190 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 401,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared with the previous week; the bonded area inventory was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 11,531 tons, a decrease of 1,135 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of August 15, 2025, the purchase price of rubber latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 61.2 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 1,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 15, 2025, the daily average price of butadiene (99.6%) in China was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 13, 2025, the weekly import inventory of butadiene in China was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Demand Side - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, an increase of 2.09% compared with the previous week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 72.25%, a decrease of 2.28% compared with the previous week. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.593 million vehicles, a decrease of 311,500 vehicles compared with the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in July was 2.287 million vehicles, a decrease of 248,500 vehicles compared with the previous month; the sales volume of trucks in July was 264,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,200 vehicles compared with the previous month. The automobile market has entered the traditional off - season. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12% respectively [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Natural rubber may fluctuate due to typhoon - affected production areas and weak downstream demand [2]. - Synthetic rubber may show a weak - fluctuating trend because of insufficient upstream raw material price support and weak demand [2]. - Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber (14900 - 15100 and 16200 - 16500) and butadiene rubber (11200 - 11400 and 12200 - 12400) [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: On August 14, 2025, the closing price was 15635, down 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 382182 lots, an increase of 66725 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 181852 lots, a decrease of 582 lots; the registered warrant volume was 179070, a decrease of 1130; the basis was - 785, up 165 [2]. - **Supply**: Future precipitation is expected in major overseas production areas, and domestic production areas are affected by typhoon "Yang", with large precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, and some precipitation in Hainan and Yunnan [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the weekly inventory of SHFE natural rubber warehouses was 200.33 thousand tons, an increase of 1.9 thousand tons; the weekly social inventory of Qingdao natural rubber was 40.15 million tons, an increase of 21.2 million tons; the bonded area inventory was 38.57 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons [2]. - **Cost**: As of August 11, 2025, the glue purchase price in Songkhla, Thailand was 51.2 baht/gram, unchanged; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in Hainan was 15400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Demand**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly operating rate of Shandong all - steel tires was 63.07%, up 2.09% from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of Chinese semi - steel tires was 72.25%, down 2.28% from the previous week [2]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: On August 13, 2025, the closing price was 11645, down 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 68153 lots, a decrease of 12028 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 23673 lots, a decrease of 2884 lots; the registered warrant volume was 10470, unchanged; the basis was - 78.33, up 105 [2]. - **Supply**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.91%, down 1.8% from the previous week; the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.71%, up 1.39% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 11531 tons, a decrease of 1135 tons [2]. - **Cost**: The international oil price declined, the butadiene production capacity increased, and the overall balance in the Northeast region was achieved. As of August 11, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.6%) was 9375 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Demand**: The demand is weak, and the car market has entered the traditional off - season. In July 2025, the sales volume of trucks was 264 thousand, a decrease of 52.2 thousand from the previous month; from January to July 2025, the cumulative production and sales volume of Chinese automobiles were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with increased rainfall in major production areas, raw material output is expected to be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and tire factory operating rates are unlikely to rise. Rubber prices are expected to have support at the lower end [5] - For BR, supply may increase slightly, and downstream demand has no highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The downward space depends on the price fluctuation of upstream butadiene. BR may follow the raw material price down, but the strong natural rubber price and continuous tire replacement demand provide some support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,610 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,755 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import data: In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - Global natural rubber: In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to drop 1.5% to 119,100 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption was expected to increase 0.7% to 127,100 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of the year, cumulative production was expected to drop 1.1% to 607,600 tons, and cumulative consumption increased 1% to 771,500 tons [2] - Cote d'Ivoire: In the first 7 months of 2025, rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July, exports increased 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - Heavy - truck market: In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an increase of about 42% from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - US tire imports: In the first half of 2025, the US imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% increase year - on - year. Passenger car tire imports increased 3% to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased 10% to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased 13% to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased 22% to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased 5% to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 14, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,000 yuan/ton (+60); the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,200 yuan/ton (-40); the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,892 yuan/ton (-71.95); the NR basis was 269.00 yuan/ton (+7.00); whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (unchanged); mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (-20); 3L spot was 14,800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 62.50 Thai baht/kg (-0.20); Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20); Thai cup lump was 49.80 Thai baht/kg (+0.50); the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (-0.30) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.06% (+0.80%); the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.71% (-0.27%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (-10,990.00); the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,852 tons (-11,918); the RU futures inventory was 176,280 tons (-1,350); the NR futures inventory was 42,235 tons (+2,519) [4] BR - Spot and spreads: On August 14, 2025, the BR basis was - 150 yuan/ton (+75); the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged); the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (unchanged); the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,750 yuan/ton (+50); the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (unchanged); the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,103 yuan/ton (+9) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 6,990 tons (-300); the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,450 tons (-700) [5]