橡胶板块2025年12月第2周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：云南天胶全面停割，合胶仓单增仓明显 ◼【综合分析】 现货价格：本周天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶市场表现各异。天然橡胶人民币市场均价走弱，上海全乳胶均价14750元/吨，跌幅0.64%；山东市场 STR20#混合胶均价14367元/吨，跌幅1.21%。相比之下，国内顺丁橡胶市场价格偏强，华北地区BR9000市场价格为10150元/吨，较上周 上涨150元/吨；华北地区BR9000均价约10070元/吨，较上周上涨40元/吨。 需求方面：山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为63.58%，较上周走高0.59个百分点，较去年同期走高6.36个百分点。胶价先跌后涨，工厂逢低 刚需补货，但整体采购情绪一般。 库存方面：青岛地区天然橡胶总库存增长，截至12月5日，总库存48.48万吨，较上期增加0.98万吨，涨幅2.06%。高顺顺丁橡胶库存窄幅走 高，涨幅1.87%。周内监测样本内装置茂名石化延续检修，振华新材料负荷提升缓慢，裕龙石化装置重启但暂未出料，周内工厂库存整体走 高为主。 ◼【策略推荐】 1.单边：RU主力05合约观望， ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-11 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15215元/吨，较前一日变动+230元/吨；NR主力合约12270元/吨，较前一日变动+190 元/吨；BR主力合约10605元/吨，较前一日变动+155元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14500元/吨，较前 一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1840美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1735美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10500元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年11月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和 新能源），环比今年10月下降约6%，比上年同期的6.85万辆大幅增长约46%。 据隆众资讯了解，进入12月份全钢胎交投表现平淡，受季节性淡季影响，市场需求进一步转弱，市场货源相对充 足情况下， ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-04 天然橡胶社会库存继续累积 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15210元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨；NR主力合约12085元/吨，较前一日变动-145 元/吨；BR主力合约10575元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14800元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14450元/吨，较前一 日变动-130元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1825美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1715 美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the view on natural rubber is to oscillate and consolidate [102] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The European Parliament voted to postpone the implementation of EUDR by 12 months. The new implementation schedule is December 30, 2026, for large - and medium - sized operators and June 30, 2027, for small and micro operators [5] - Floods in southern Thailand may lead to a rubber shortage. At least 13 million rai of rubber plantations were affected, and the rubber production loss exceeded 20,000 tons [6] - In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, while exports to China increased by 3% [7] 3.2 Market Trends - This week, most domestic and foreign rubber futures closed higher, with NR slightly declining. On November 28, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,410 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous period; NR2601 was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [9][11] 3.3 Basis and Calendar Spread - On November 28, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 410 yuan/ton, down 5.13% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 calendar spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 56.25% [15] 3.4 Other Spreads - RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads increased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread decreased [18] - In the import rubber market, traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse replacement. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after a reduction in buying orders, and the spot of Thai mixed rubber showed a near - end premium [21] - The spread between whole milk and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [24] 3.5 Substitute Prices - The price of butadiene raw materials oscillated narrowly, and the cost did not boost the market price. The production profit of butadiene rubber remained at a good level. The domestic output of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the downstream continued to push down prices [30] 3.6 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled funds increased; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased, and the settled funds also increased [33] 3.7 Fundamental Data 3.7.1 Supply - In Thailand, the southern region entered the rainy season with increased rainfall, while the rainfall in the northeast decreased seasonally. In China, the rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have ended [38][40] - As domestic production areas gradually enter the production - reduction and tapping - suspension season, and there is continuous heavy rainfall and flood risks in southern Thailand and Vietnam, the supply tightening expectation has increased, and domestic raw material prices have remained firm [42] - The water - cup spread in Thailand widened. The spread of Hainan glue into the latex concentrate factory - into the whole - milk factory was stable, while the spread of Yunnan glue widened [46] - The processing profit of natural rubber has generally recovered, and the delivery profit in Hainan and Yunnan has continued to pick up [49][53] - In October, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly [59][62] - In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports, while the mixed rubber exports continued to increase month - on - month [65] - In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. Exports to China rebounded seasonally, with large increases in standard rubber and latex [71] - In October, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, while exports to China continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month [73] - In October, China imported 510,800 tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89% [77] 3.7.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises fluctuated. The inventory days of tires decreased, indicating a turning point in the tire inventory accumulation trend [83] - In October, the export of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly month - on - month, and the export of all - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month. The sales of heavy - duty trucks and passenger cars increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed down [84] - In October, the freight turnover of road transportation decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [87] 3.7.3 Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber increased significantly, showing a pattern of a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. The inventory of dark - colored rubber in Qingdao Port increased at a larger amplitude [94] - The futures inventory of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber increased week - on - week [99] 3.8 This Week's View Summary - This week, the view on natural rubber is to oscillate and consolidate. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase. The supply side of tire enterprises is operating weakly [102][103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, the cost - side support is strong due to high raw material prices. With increasing arrivals in China and lackluster demand, there may be inventory accumulation. The supply pressure of RU may be less than NR later, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to widen. For BR, the upstream production profit has recovered, but due to maintenance, the supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short - term. It mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market To - date News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,320 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [2] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,735 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Market Information - Import: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3] - Export: In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire export volume reached 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [3] - Global Forecast: ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [3] - Thailand Export: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total natural rubber exports to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [4] - Automobile Sales: In October 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On November 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 400 yuan/ton (+90), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 700 yuan/ton (- 40), the NR basis was 727 yuan/ton (+25); the whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 100), the mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 150), the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,650 yuan/ton (- 150) [5][6] - Raw Materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.89 Thai baht/kg (+0.84), Thai glue was 57 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [7] -开工率: The full - steel tire operating rate was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 452,589 tons (+3,134), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 108,470 tons (- 10,500), and the NR futures inventory was 49,695 tons (+1,109) [8] 顺丁橡胶 - Spot and Spread: On November 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 120 yuan/ton (+185), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private - owned high - cis butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,080 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of high - cis butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,512 yuan/ton (- 2) [9] -开工率: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [10] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (- 90), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. Given the high raw material prices, the cost - side support is strong. With increasing arrivals and lackluster demand, there may be inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The unilateral trend is unclear. The supply pressure of RU may be less than NR later, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to widen [12] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. Some plants have restarted or postponed maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance. The upstream production profit has recovered, but due to maintenance, the supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short - term. It mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene [12]

化工日报 | 2025-11-20 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15440元/吨，较前一日变动+145元/吨；NR主力合约12480元/吨，较前一日变动+135 元/吨；BR主力合约10705元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前 一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1760美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10450元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - The cost of natural rubber is strongly supported, but with the increase in supply later, the supply - demand drive is weak. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to continue to widen. The supply of BR is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and it mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene. The weak situation of butadiene may continue, but the loss of production profit may suppress later output [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,220 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,180 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,430 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai No. 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian No. 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck Market**: In October 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles after November [2] - **Global Natural Rubber**: ANRPC predicted that in September 2025, the global natural rubber production would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - **China's Rubber Imports**: In October 2025, China imported a total of 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [2] - **Thailand's Rubber Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [3] - **Passenger - car Market**: In October 2025, the retail sales volume of the national passenger - car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - **EU Passenger - car Market**: In September 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger - car market increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the RU basis was - 470 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 520 yuan/ton (+25), the NR basis was 924.00 yuan/ton (+45.00), etc. [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai glue was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [5] - **开工率**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+0.77%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+1,787), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+345), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (-1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+3,931) [6] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the BR basis was - 80 yuan/ton (-40), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - **开工率**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 66.02% (-0.88%) [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (-160), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (-1,430) [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [12] - BR: Cautiously bearish [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - For natural rubber, the supply of raw materials is expected to increase significantly as rainfall decreases in major production areas, which may lead to a decline in raw material prices. Although the cost support is strong, the supply - demand drive is weak. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later stage, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to continue to widen. [12] - For butadiene rubber, the supply is expected to increase this week, while the downstream demand is lackluster and the downstream production is restricted in some areas. The supply - demand situation has weakened, and the price is expected to follow the weak trend of butadiene. [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,165 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles after November. [2] - Global natural rubber: In September 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons. [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. From January to September, the exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. [3] - China's automobile production and sales: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. [4] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. [4] - EU passenger car market: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles. [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 510 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 460 yuan/ton (+ 15), the NR basis was 943.00 yuan/ton (+ 15.00). [6] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 59.29 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.34), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40). [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+ 0.77%). [8] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+ 1,787), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+ 17,061), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (- 1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+ 3,931). [8] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (- 185), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged). [9] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.02% (- 0.88%). [10] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (- 160), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (- 1,430). [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, the outlook is neutral. The supply of raw materials is expected to increase, but the cost support is strong, and the supply - demand drive is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The spread between RU and NR is expected to widen. [12] - For BR, it is cautiously bearish. The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is lackluster, and the price is expected to follow the weak trend of butadiene. [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - The rubber price mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere. The change in the rubber fundamentals may come from the supply side. With the increase in the arrival volume in China, the inventory has started to increase slightly, and it is expected to further increase in the future. However, the raw material prices in overseas main producing areas remain firm due to rainfall disruptions, providing strong cost support for natural rubber and limiting the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. - For BR, the decline in the upstream butadiene raw material price since late October in China has turned the production profit of butadiene rubber from loss to profit, partially offsetting the support from the recent concentrated maintenance of upstream butadiene rubber plants. With resilient downstream demand and a relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not prominent, and it mainly fluctuates with the upstream raw materials. In the context of abundant butadiene supply, its weakness is expected to continue [12] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,045 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,130 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,305 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,705 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% from September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% from 66,400 in the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks in China exceeded 900,000, reaching 916,000, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million after November [2] Global Natural Rubber - According to the ANRPC September 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] China's Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary - form rubber, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheets was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total natural rubber exports to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheets to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] China's Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same historical period, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] China's Rubber - Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber - tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume reached 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In the first three quarters, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] EU Passenger - Car Market - In September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On November 6, 2025, the RU basis was - 495 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 465 yuan/ton (-5), and the NR basis was 838.00 yuan/ton (-131.00). The price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (+200), the price of mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton (+200), and the price of 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (+50). The price of STR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton (+10). The spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 4,180 yuan/ton (+200) [6] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.75 Thai baht/kg (+0.45), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (-1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+1.40) [7] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+0.77%) [8] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+17,061), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (-3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+2,015) [8] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On November 6, 2025, the BR basis was - 205 yuan/ton (-70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton (+50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,850 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,503 yuan/ton (+52) [9] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.02% (-0.88%) [10] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (-160), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (-1,430) [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The rubber price mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere. The change in the rubber fundamentals may come from the supply side. With the increase in the arrival volume in China, the inventory has started to increase slightly, and it is expected to further increase in the future. However, the raw material prices in overseas main producing areas remain firm due to rainfall disruptions, providing strong cost support for natural rubber and limiting the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The decline in the upstream butadiene raw material price since late October in China has turned the production profit of butadiene rubber from loss to profit, partially offsetting the support from the recent concentrated maintenance of upstream butadiene rubber plants. With resilient downstream demand and a relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not prominent, and it mainly fluctuates with the upstream raw materials. In the context of abundant butadiene supply, its weakness is expected to continue [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is weak, and with the recent increase in domestic arrivals, rubber prices have been continuously declining. Although the supply in overseas main - producing areas is in the peak season, domestic arrivals are expected to maintain a certain growth rate, and domestic inventories are likely to further increase. However, due to rainfall disturbances in overseas main - producing areas, raw material prices are firm, and the cost - side support for natural rubber is still strong, which may limit the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and prices mostly follow the surrounding market sentiment [12] - The main factor driving the recent decline in butadiene rubber prices is the drag from the cost side. The price of its upstream raw material, butadiene, has shown a weak trend due to increased supply and weakened demand. Although the production profit of butadiene rubber has improved recently, offsetting some of the support from the concentrated maintenance of upstream devices, with the resilient downstream demand and the relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,960 yuan/ton, a change of - 240 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,205 yuan/ton, a change of - 155 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, a change of - 30 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck Market**: In October 2025, the wholesale sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that after November, the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [2] - **Global Natural Rubber**: According to the ANRPC's September 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - **China's Natural Rubber Imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. The monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] - **China's Rubber Tire Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] - **EU Passenger Car Market**: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 4, 2025, the RU basis was - 425 yuan/ton (+ 70), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 475 yuan/ton (- 20), the NR basis was 941.00 yuan/ton (+ 172.00); the price of whole latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (- 200) [6] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.00 Thai baht/kg (- 1.00), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [7] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [8] - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,038,951 tons (- 11,478), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [8] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 4, 2025, the BR basis was - 105 yuan/ton (- 45), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (- 300), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,850 yuan/ton (- 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,443 yuan/ton (- 158) [9] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [10] - **Inventories**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [11]