Group 1 - The current inflation situation in the Eurozone faces multiple downward pressures, with a warning that the recent rapid rise of the euro against the dollar and energy market volatility due to Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts may cause inflation rates to deviate from the 2% target [1] - The probability of inflation remaining below the target level has exceeded the upside risks, according to the Lithuanian central bank governor [1] - Despite forecasts indicating that inflation will stabilize at 2% by 2027, current price trends remain uncertain, influenced by geopolitical risks and aggressive trade protectionism policies from the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the July meeting is the most probable policy option, aligning with market expectations [3] - Since the start of the current easing cycle in June 2024, the European Central Bank has consecutively lowered the benchmark interest rate eight times, with expectations for further rate cuts in September [3] - The average tariff rate on European goods exported to the U.S. is currently 10%, and the impact of existing trade barriers on the real economy has not yet fully manifested [3]

Group 1 - The euro is experiencing significant trading volume in the foreign exchange options market, with over $56 billion traded, indicating strong investor sentiment towards the euro's appreciation [1] - The surge in euro call options suggests a growing belief that the euro will break above 1.20 against the dollar, driven by factors such as the US-EU trade tensions and concerns over US fiscal policy [1][3] - The euro has strengthened against almost all G10 currencies, rising over 15% from its February lows, as market confidence in the eurozone improves [5] Group 2 - The chief strategist at Mizuho Securities highlights that if trade channels are significantly closed by the US, the eurozone could become the largest economy outside the US, attracting more investment into the euro [3] - The market sentiment towards the euro is at its highest since early 2024, with hedge funds showing the lowest bearish sentiment since April [3][4] - The upcoming speech by the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is anticipated to be a potential catalyst for further euro strength [5]

欧元/美元 如果美元进一步走弱 欧元可能升至1.20 金十数据6月26日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中称，欧元兑美元在1.17附近面 临强劲阻力，此前曾短暂突破该水平，触及逾三年半高位。如果欧元持续突破1.17美元，可能会为进一 步上涨至1.20铺平道路，尽管这需要美元进一步贬值。在美媒报道特朗普考虑提前宣布美联储主席鲍威 尔的继任者后，美元走弱，欧元随之反弹。Pesole说，北约同意5%的国防开支目标，以及特朗普对美国 盟友的和解态度，可能也会支持欧元。 ...

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：欧元升值10%大致可以抵消油价可能上涨10欧元带来的通胀影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a strong position, having nearly reached its 2% inflation target, and should maintain a flexible and pragmatic approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The ECB should act swiftly if necessary, indicating a readiness to respond to economic changes [1] - The appreciation of the euro should be incorporated into the ECB's monetary policy decisions, highlighting the importance of currency value in economic strategy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that increased tariffs and the appreciation of the euro will make exports more challenging for European companies [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the negative impact of higher tariffs on trade dynamics [1] - The strengthening of the euro is expected to further complicate the export landscape for businesses in Europe [1]

欧洲央行会议纪要：不确定性、欧元升值以及油气价格下跌，将进一步抑制近期的通胀前景。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the euro has come as a surprise to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Governor of the Bank of Spain, Escrivá [1] Group 1 - The euro's unexpected rise has raised concerns among ECB officials [1] - Escrivá highlighted that the currency's strength could have implications for the eurozone economy [1] - The appreciation of the euro may affect inflation and economic growth within the region [1]

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：欧元升值是促进欧元国际地位的历史机遇。 ...

欧盟委员会贸易委员东布罗夫斯基斯：欧元升值是把双刃剑。 ...