1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Although the cost support from crude oil has strengthened in the short - term, the inventory situation is mixed with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 3137 - 3177 [8][10]. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced asphalt products, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 37.3921%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 253,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The output of sample enterprises was 624,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 616,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 12.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 299.81 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 718.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.59%. The processing loss of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [9]. - **Other Aspects**: On October 21, the spot price in Shandong was 3340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 183 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory was 1.051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. Factory inventory was 727,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.36%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.66%. The MA20 of the market trend is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, changing from short to long [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, inventory, construction rates, and profits of asphalt [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It presents the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 - 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the trends of shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume (weekly and monthly), Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, construction rate, and maintenance loss estimation from 2018 - 2025 [44][46][49][52][55][58][61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio from 2019 - 2025 [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It presents the trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][77][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the trends of petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours), asphalt construction rate (heavy - traffic asphalt, by - use asphalt), and downstream construction conditions (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [80][83][86][90][95][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 37.3921%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is below the historical average. The start - up rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average, with only the waterproofing membrane start - up rate showing a month - on - month increase of 3.50 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 299.81 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 718.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.59%. The decline in asphalt processing losses and the narrowing profit gap between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the weakening of crude oil, are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of cost support [9]. - The overall view is that the fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; and the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2601 fluctuating in the range of 3114 - 3156 [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipments increased, while the estimated maintenance volume decreased, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost**: The processing profit decreased, and the profit gap with delayed coking narrowed. Crude oil is weak, and cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - **Prediction**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, inventory is neutral, the disk is bearish, and the main position is bearish. The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2601 in the 3114 - 3156 range [8][10][11]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logical factors are high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. The main risk points are the change in crude oil prices and the profit gap trend between asphalt and coking products [13][14][15] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of different asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, and production [18]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It depicts the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It depicts the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - **Start - up Rate**: It presents the historical weekly start - up rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It presents the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, the new local special bond trend from 2019 to 2025, and the year - on - year change in infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [86][87][88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025, as well as the monthly operating hours of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [90][91][94]. - **Asphalt Start - up Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Start - up Rate**: It shows the historical start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - **Asphalt Start - up Rate by Use**: It presents the historical start - up rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - **Downstream Start - up Situation**: It shows the historical start - up rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the output of sample enterprises decreased, and the device maintenance volume increased, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - The demand side: The current demand for various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average level, and the overall demand recovery in the peak season is less than expected and remains sluggish [8]. - The cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased, the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries increased, the asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Comprehensive judgment: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3281 - 3323 [8]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high and the demand recovery is weak [8][10][11][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply: This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 618000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%, and the device maintenance volume was estimated to be 625000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. The refineries have reduced production recently, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The construction rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average levels. The overall demand is less than expected and remains sluggish [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Other aspects: The basis is 178 yuan/ton on October 13, with the spot price higher than the futures price; the social inventory decreased by 1.30% month - on - month, the factory inventory increased by 6.48% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 7.69% month - on - month; the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20; the main position is net short, changing from long to short [8]. 2. Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of various asphalt contracts decreased, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts increased. The social inventory decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [15]. - **Price and Spread Analysis** - **Basis**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [17][18]. - **Contract Spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt [20][21]. - **Price Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios among asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [30][32]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [35][38]. - **Supply - side**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, port inventory of diluted asphalt, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil, production volume of Venezuelan crude oil, production volume of local refinery asphalt, construction rate, and device maintenance loss [41][43][46][50][53][56][59]. - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of factory inventory [62][66][69]. - **Import and Export**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [72][75][77]. - **Demand - side**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and sales of related machinery), asphalt construction rate, and downstream construction conditions [78][81][84][88][93][96][97]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including downstream demand, port inventory of diluted asphalt, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7][9]. - The fundamentals are bullish, with the cost side supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. The basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with social and factory inventories decreasing and port inventories increasing. The market sentiment is bearish in terms of the moving average and the net short position of the main contract [7][8][9]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support, while bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand along with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production was 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.501%, a 0.90 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 685,000 tons, a 0.44% month - on - month increase. Refineries have reduced production recently, which will ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for asphalt is below the historical average. The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt is either decreasing or remaining flat and lower than the historical average, while the construction rate of waterproofing membranes has a slight increase but is still below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a 6.94% month - on - month increase. The loss in asphalt processing is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On September 10, the spot price in Shandong was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 90 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1225,000 tons, a 3.54% month - on - month decrease; factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a 4.74% month - on - month decrease; port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a 68.42% month - on - month increase [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Charts show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: A chart shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: A chart shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: A chart shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Production Volume**: Charts show the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: A chart shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: A chart shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: A chart shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: A chart shows the historical estimated maintenance loss trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: Charts show the historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory Ratio**: A chart shows the historical factory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Import - Export Analysis**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: A chart shows the historical import spread trends of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: A chart shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: A chart shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of downstream demand, including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours, and the sales of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: A chart shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - **By - Use Asphalt**: Charts show the historical construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Construction Conditions**: Charts show the historical construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: A table shows the monthly supply - demand balance of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and demand [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate increased, and the refineries increased production, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, although some sub - sectors'开工 rates have increased [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous period, and the delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3443 - 3487 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a monthly decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase. The sample enterprise output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase; the construction asphalt 开工 rate is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt 开工 rate is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase; the road - modified asphalt 开工 rate is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase; the waterproofing membrane 开工 rate is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase. Crude oil is strengthening, and short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3443 - 3487 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include the relatively high price of crude oil providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increased expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, 开工 rates, and profits [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Analysis**: On August 21, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 45 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and other areas [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [38][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, 开工 rate, and maintenance loss volume [44][46][49][53][56][59][61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [64][68][72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand, asphalt 开工 rate, and downstream 开工 conditions [81][84][87][91][96][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, with the overall demand recovery in the peak season falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory continuously increasing, factory inventory continuously decreasing, and port inventory continuously increasing. Crude oil prices are strengthening, providing short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [8][9][10]. - The factors affecting the market include the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support; however, there is insufficient demand for high - priced products, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 280,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.90%. The output of sample enterprises is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [9]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 144 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, the factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][36]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report presents the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the estimated maintenance loss volume trends from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report presents the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) trends from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio trends from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation**: The report presents the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The report presents the trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year infrastructure investment completion rate from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume trends of excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report presents the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate trends from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report shows the construction rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: The report presents the construction rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate has increased, and refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side shows that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with some types of asphalt and related product operating rates being lower than historical averages [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - The main positions are net short, with a shift from long to short. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3550 - 3596 [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases and demand is lower than expected, so it is bearish [8]. - **Cost**: Crude oil weakens, and short - term cost support weakens, so it is bearish [9]. - **Basis**: On August 4th, the spot price in Shandong was 3785 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 229 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, so it is bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: Social, factory, and port inventories are all decreasing, so it is bullish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract is below the MA20, so it is neutral [11]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, with a shift from long to short, so it is bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3550 - 3596 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased, and the inventories of different types of contracts also showed different degrees of decline [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), asphalt - crude oil price trends, crude oil cracking spreads, and the price - to - price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [38][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss [44][46][49]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions [80][83][86]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to August 2025 [104][105].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Supply: In June 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, a 3.5% month-on-month increase and a 12.7% year-on-year increase. The sample capacity utilization rate was 33.9166%, up 0.779 percentage points week-on-week. Sample enterprise shipments were 261,200 tons, a 10.91% increase, and production was 566,000 tons, a 2.35% increase. The estimated device maintenance volume was 582,000 tons, a 2.51% decrease. Refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The current demand is below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 32.7%, up 0.03 percentage points week - on - week; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, flat week - on - week; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.383%, up 0.34 percentage points week - on - week; the road modified asphalt开工率 was 25%, down 1.00 percentage points week - on - week; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 30%, down 3.00 percentage points week - on - week [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 460.93 yuan/ton, a 11.00% decrease week - on - week. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 838.2543 yuan/ton, a 24.69% decrease week - on - week. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to support asphalt prices in the short term [8]. - Expectation: Refineries' recent production increase raises supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil strengthening strengthens cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating between 3620 - 3672 [9]. - Other factors: On July 14, the Shandong spot price was 3810 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory was 1.312 million tons, a 0.45% decrease week - on - week; factory inventory was 763,000 tons, a 2.01% increase week - on - week; port diluted asphalt inventory was 270,000 tons, a 68.75% increase week - on - week [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Refineries' production increase raises supply pressure, and it is expected to increase in the next week [7]. - Demand: Overall demand is less than expected and remains sluggish [9]. - Cost: Crude oil strengthening strengthens cost support in the short term [8]. - Expectation: The futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating between 3620 - 3672 [9]. - Factors influencing the market: Bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support; bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - Main logic: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [14]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: The table shows the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts and related products, including the price changes of different contracts, the week - on - week changes of various inventories, and the changes in production and shipment volume [17]. - **Price and Basis**: On July 14, the Shandong spot price was 3810 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.312 million tons, a 0.45% decrease week - on - week; factory inventory was 763,000 tons, a 2.01% increase week - on - week; port diluted asphalt inventory was 270,000 tons, a 68.75% increase week - on - week [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MA20 was downward, and the 09 contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has increased production recently, leading to elevated supply pressure, but it may decrease next week. The demand side shows that the overall demand recovery is below expectations and remains sluggish, with current demand lower than the historical average. The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. The inventory shows continuous destocking in social inventory, continuous stockpiling in factory inventory, and continuous destocking in port inventory. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3598 - 3660 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is high supply pressure and weak demand recovery [12][13][14]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 597,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.33%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage point; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.0382%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 452.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,113.1829 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.54%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Inventory**: On July 10, the social inventory was 1.318 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; the factory inventory was 748,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.03%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.43%. Social inventory is continuously destocking, factory inventory is continuously stockpiling, and port inventory is continuously destocking [10]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3598 - 3660 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base Spread**: On July 10, the spot price in Shandong was 3,825 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 196 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [10]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The prices of different contracts showed various changes, such as the 01 contract price increasing by 0.50%, the 02 contract price decreasing by 0.12% in weekly inventory, etc. [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt profit chart shows the profit changes over time, and the coking - asphalt profit spread chart reflects the spread changes between coking and asphalt profits [38][42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume chart shows the shipment volume changes of asphalt small - sample enterprises over time [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory chart shows the inventory changes over time [46]. - **Production Volume**: The weekly and monthly production volume charts show the production volume changes of asphalt over time [49]. - **Crude Oil Price and Production**: The chart of the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil shows their trends over time [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The local refinery asphalt production chart shows the production volume changes of local refineries over time [56]. - **开工率**: The weekly and usage - based asphalt construction rate charts show the construction rate changes over time [59][97]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The maintenance loss estimation chart shows the estimated maintenance loss volume over time [61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The exchange warehouse receipt chart shows the changes in exchange warehouse receipts over time [64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) charts show the inventory changes over time [68]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The factory inventory inventory ratio chart shows the ratio changes over time [71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The export and import trend charts of asphalt show the import and export volume changes over time, and the chart of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt shows the price difference changes [74][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The petroleum coke production chart shows the production volume changes over time [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption chart shows the consumption volume changes over time [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand includes highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, roller sales), and asphalt construction rate (heavy - traffic asphalt, usage - based asphalt, downstream construction situation) [86][90][95]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data from January 2024 to July 2025 [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 32.8979%, up 0.599 percentage points month - on - month. The overall supply pressure is high, but it may decrease next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt have low or flat开工率, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher than the historical average, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is down [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 602.45 yuan/ton, down 9.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 711.6571 yuan/ton, up 5.92% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss is reduced, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, which is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - The expected trend of the asphalt market is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating in the range of 3707 - 3769 [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is high, and demand recovery is less than expected. The overall situation is bearish [7]. - **Cost**: Crude oil is strengthening, and the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On June 19th, the Shandong spot price was 3800 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis was 62 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is increasing, the factory inventory is decreasing, and the port diluted asphalt inventory is decreasing significantly. The overall situation is bullish [10]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 - contract futures price closes above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [10]. - **Expected Trend**: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating in the range of 3707 - 3769 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][20]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which is useful for spread trading analysis [24][25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [27][28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are provided, which is important for understanding the profitability of asphalt production [30][32]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are given, which can assist in cross - commodity trading decisions [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends The historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 are presented, helping to understand the regional differences in the asphalt spot market [37][38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which is important for evaluating the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The historical profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are provided, which can help refineries make production decisions [43][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which reflects the market supply situation [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which is related to the supply of raw materials [48][49]. - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided, which is crucial for understanding the overall supply situation [51][52]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production volume trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are given, which are related to the cost and supply of asphalt raw materials [55][57]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production volume trends of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the production capacity of refineries [58][60]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 are shown, which reflects the production enthusiasm of refineries [61][62]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: The historical trends of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025 are provided, which is related to the supply fluctuation caused by refinery maintenance [64][65]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the market's willingness to hold inventory [67][68]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The historical trends of social and factory inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which reflects the inventory distribution in the market [72][73]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [75][76]. - **Import - Export Analysis**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the international market situation [78][79]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: The historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for import - related trading [81][82]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the petroleum coke production process [84][85]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided, which reflects the overall market demand [87][88]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [90][92]. - **Mechanical Equipment Demand**: The historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume trends of excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which reflect the demand for asphalt in construction projects [94][95]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which reflects the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [99][100]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical开工率 trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [102][103]. - **Downstream开工率**: The historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which reflects the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [105][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025 is provided, including production, import, export, inventory, and demand data, which helps to comprehensively understand the market supply - demand situation [110][111].