Group 1: Nature and Market of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are essentially "on-chain" dollars, designed to mitigate cryptocurrency market volatility and enhance payment efficiency[1] - As of July 24, 2025, the total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $270 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for approximately 62% and 24% of the market, respectively[12] - USDT and USDC dominate the market, representing about 90% of stablecoin trading volume and 80% of market value[2] Group 2: Issuer Profit Models - Stablecoin issuers profit from the interest rate spread, as they do not pay interest on the stablecoins held by users[2] - Tether's reserve assets consist of approximately 80% in U.S. Treasury bonds and cash, while Circle's reserves are primarily in U.S. Treasury bonds and cash, leading to lower but safer returns[2] - Tether reported a net profit of approximately $13 billion in 2024, with $7 billion from U.S. Treasury investments and $5 billion from Bitcoin and gold holdings[50] Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The U.S. "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoins must be backed 100% by cash or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, with a diverse regulatory body overseeing compliance[3] - The EU's "MiCA Act" aims for unified regulation across member states, focusing on risk prevention and maintaining financial sovereignty[34] - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" emphasizes strict approval processes and a 100% reserve requirement, allowing for a more inclusive approach to stablecoin issuance[40] Group 4: Macro Implications - Dollar-backed stablecoins expand the functionality of the dollar, reinforcing its dominance in the international monetary system[4] - The growth of stablecoins poses new challenges for central banks in managing liquidity, as they can significantly increase the velocity of money circulation[4] - The expansion of stablecoins could exacerbate the U.S. government's long-term debt issues, as they are primarily tied to short-term bonds[4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a favorable bias, and the yield curve shifted downward in a steepening manner. Although the trade, financial, and macroeconomic data for June were generally positive, the weak indicators on the demand - side such as real estate, investment, and consumption limited the negative impact on the bond market. The central bank increased its support during the tax - payment period, leading the money market to turn from tight to loose. The short - end bond yields declined and transmitted to the long - end, resulting in a slight decline in long - end yields [1]. - This week (the week of July 21), the bond market is expected to continue its favorable oscillation. As it enters an economic data vacuum period and the market becomes less sensitive to fundamentals and the stock market, it may focus on the money market and monetary policy signals. With the central bank's clear intention to support the money market, the money market is expected to remain loose after the tax - payment period, driving short - end yields down further and transmitting to the long - end [1]. Group 3: Market Review Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market oscillated within a narrow range, and long - bond yields declined slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.02% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01bp, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2.12bp compared to the previous Friday, with the term spread widening significantly [3]. - On July 14, the bond market was weak in the morning due to the tightening money market and rising stock market, but recovered slightly in the afternoon. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.73bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract falling 0.08% [3]. - On July 15, the bond market strengthened as the weak demand - side indicators in June's economic data, the central bank's over - renewal of outright reverse repurchases, and the falling stock market. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally decreased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropping 1.69bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rising 0.18% [3]. - On July 16, the bond market oscillated within a narrow range. Short - end yields declined due to eased money - market pressure, while medium - and long - end yields rose due to continuous government bond supply. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds increased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.60bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract falling 0.05% [3]. - On July 17, the bond market oscillated strongly. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.13bp, and most 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts rising 0.02% [3]. - On July 18, the bond market continued to oscillate. The short - end performed strongly and the long - end weakly due to the central bank's solicitation of opinions on canceling the freeze of collateral for bond repurchases. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.22bp, and most 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell 0.08% [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 85 interest - rate bonds were issued, 15 more than the previous week. The issuance volume was 656.5 billion yuan, 33.5 billion less than the previous week, and the net financing was 143.3 billion yuan, 319.1 billion less than the previous week. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. Five Treasury bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.24 times; 20 policy - bank bonds with an average of 4.00 times; and 60 local government bonds with an average of 26.47 times [12]. Group 4: Important Events - In June, the export growth rate rebounded unexpectedly. The export value in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than in May. The decline in exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points. The import value increased by 1.1% year - on - year, 4.5 percentage points faster than in May. The decline in imports from the US narrowed by 2.6 percentage points [13]. - The financial data in June was strong. New RMB loans in June reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion year - on - year. The new social financing scale was 4.1993 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion year - on - year. At the end of June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month, and M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 2.3 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month [13]. - The macroeconomic growth momentum in the first half of the year was relatively strong. The GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first half increased by 5.3% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the whole of 2024. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in the first half was 6.4%. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in June was 4.8%, and the cumulative increase in the first half was 5.0%. The fixed - asset investment from January to June increased by 2.8% year - on - year [14]. Group 5: Real Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side increased last week, including blast furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt unit operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and daily pig iron output. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to fall [15]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated slightly upward, while most commodity prices fell, including crude oil and copper prices, and the rebar price decreased slightly [15]. Group 6: Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net injection of 1.2011 trillion yuan into the open market last week [25]. - Last week, R007 declined slightly, and DR007 increased. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward [26].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is seeking public opinion on the cancellation of the bond repurchase collateral freeze regulation, which is seen as a significant step towards optimizing liquidity management and aligning with international practices [2][3][6]. Group 1: Policy Objectives - The primary goal of the policy change is to enhance bond liquidity, allowing for more efficient trading and reducing the impact of collateral freezes on market operations [4][8]. - This adjustment is part of a broader strategy to improve the market mechanism and is not directly linked to specific policy tools like government bond purchases [8][9]. Group 2: Market Impact - The cancellation of the collateral freeze is expected to inject implicit liquidity into the market, particularly benefiting short-term bonds, as evidenced by a decrease in the 1-year government bond yield by 0.6 basis points to 1.35% [13][14]. - The overall market sentiment has shown initial positive effects, with short-end interest rate bonds performing better, while long-end bonds remain under pressure due to fiscal supply and interest rate risks [12][13]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The move is interpreted as a reflection of the PBOC's commitment to maintaining a "stable yet loose" monetary policy, with an emphasis on optimizing liquidity management tools [10][15]. - The current banking sector still faces pressure, but the release of implicit liquidity may alleviate the need for more aggressive easing measures from the PBOC [15].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "moderate easing" monetary policy in China has shown significant effectiveness in supporting the real economy over the past six months, particularly following a comprehensive set of financial measures introduced in May [1][2]. Monetary Policy Measures - In May, a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) was implemented, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted two rounds of reverse repos in June, totaling 1.4 trillion yuan, to maintain ample liquidity [2]. - By the end of June, the year-on-year growth rates for social financing scale, broad money supply (M2), and RMB loans were 8.9%, 8.3%, and 7.1% respectively, with nearly 13 trillion yuan in new RMB loans issued in the first half of the year [2]. Interest Rate Adjustments - The PBOC lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points in May, which led to a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans were approximately 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, both lower than the previous year by about 45 and 60 basis points [2]. Structural Support - The PBOC has increased support for key sectors, including the establishment of re-loan facilities for service consumption and elderly care, and enhanced funding for technological innovation [3]. - By the end of May, loans in the areas of technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital finance reached 103.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.2% of total loans, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.0% [3]. Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that there is still room for further RRR and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year to alleviate the debt burden on the real economy and promote stable growth [6][7]. - The PBOC is expected to enhance liquidity through various tools, including reverse repos and MLF funding, while also potentially restarting government bond purchases to stabilize market expectations [7][8]. - Structural monetary policy tools may be enriched, with a focus on directing financial resources towards technological innovation and new industrialization [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's executive director Benjamin emphasizes that banks should maintain appropriate reserves for their liquidity management while considering the central bank's liquidity supply [1] Group 1 - Banks are advised to manage their liquidity effectively in light of the Bank of England's liquidity provisions [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - This marks the second consecutive month that the PBOC has increased the scale of its operations [1] - The operation included 800 billion yuan for a 3-month (91 days) term and 600 billion yuan for a 6-month (182 days) term, utilizing a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding method [1]

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment has made it increasingly difficult for fixed income products to achieve excellent performance, necessitating a shift in investment strategies to adapt to new market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ten-year government bond yield has dropped to approximately 1.65%, indicating the end of the "easy win" era for bonds [1]. - The dual pressures of low interest rates and "asset scarcity" have reduced the margin for error in bond investments, requiring a more refined approach [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - A shift from a strategy of making a few large trades to capturing smaller, more frequent opportunities is necessary due to changing market dynamics [2]. - The management of bond portfolios should involve a dual-dimensional control of credit duration and volatility duration, with a focus on liquidity management to handle extreme market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 3: Product Management - Different products require tailored strategies based on their positioning and liability characteristics, with a focus on safety for short-duration bonds and a more aggressive approach for longer-duration products [3]. - The adjustment of positions and metrics should be flexible, taking into account market phases, fundamental trends, and technical indicators [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by a loose monetary policy and favorable fundamentals, despite potential external pressures such as trade policies [6]. - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year include credit bonds, interest rate bonds, and local government bonds, with a particular interest in convertible bonds due to their dual nature of fixed income and potential equity appreciation [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of central bank monetary policy statements in revealing market expectations, particularly focusing on the "hawkish-dovish signals" from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan in 2025 [1] Group 1: Quantitative Decoding of Hawkish-Dovish Signals - The Federal Reserve's May 2025 statement highlighted a "no rush to cut rates" stance, removing the phrase "risks are roughly balanced," which led to a 1.5% fluctuation in gold T+D within one hour [3] - The European Central Bank's June 2025 statement omitted the term "restrictive" and lowered inflation forecasts, resulting in a 2.3% expansion in euro gold premiums [4] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates in June 2025 but planned to gradually reduce government bond purchases starting in 2026, causing a 1.8% fluctuation in yen gold premiums [5] Group 2: Market Reaction Mechanisms - During the March 2025 U.S. stock market circuit breaker, the VIX index surged to 52.33, yet gold ETF holdings briefly flowed out, indicating a "pseudo-safe haven" sentiment in the market [6] - A divergence between the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI at 47.1 (contraction) and the Eurozone PMI at 48.5 (near expansion) in April 2025 led to a 10% pricing discrepancy between the dollar index and euro gold premiums, allowing for a strategy of "long COMEX gold + short Shanghai gold T+D" to capture exchange rate recovery with an annualized return of 12%-15% [7] Group 3: Practical Response Strategies - A keyword sensitivity model was developed using JPMorgan's AI model to analyze core terms such as "policy path," "inflation expectations," and "financial conditions," indicating that each additional mention of "upside inflation risk" in the Fed's statement increases the probability of a 3-5 basis point rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields by 62% [8] - In extreme market conditions, it is advised to reserve 30% margin redundancy and utilize "gold options strategies" to hedge volatility risks, with the cost of buying straddle options (strike price $3200/ounce) being 40% lower than simple holdings [9] - Monitoring the time lag between central bank policy statements and data releases is crucial; for instance, if the U.S. non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations by 150,000 after the Fed's June statement, gold may experience a rebound typically ranging from 1.5%-2.5% [10]

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank adjusted its open market operations on July 1, conducting a 131 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, and achieving a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1][2] - In the first week of July, the open market faced significant withdrawal pressure, with reverse repos maturing exceeding 2 trillion yuan, including a high of 525.9 billion yuan on July 4 [1][3] - The central bank is expected to flexibly adjust operations based on changes in the funding environment, potentially increasing liquidity or utilizing other monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity levels [1][4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Reactions - Market expectations suggest that liquidity will remain ample in July, with analysts predicting a minimal liquidity gap post-quarter-end [4][9] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a significant rise on June 30, with the overnight Shibor increasing by 5.10 basis points to 1.4220%, but subsequently dropped after the quarter-end [3][9] - The central bank's decision not to announce the bond trading operations on June 30 has led to speculation that the rules for announcing such operations may have changed to "as needed" rather than at the end of the month [5][6] Group 3: Government Bond Trading Operations - The discussion around the resumption of government bond trading operations has intensified, especially given the seasonal tightening of funds at the end of the quarter [6][8] - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading is inevitable, but the timing will be carefully managed to minimize downward pressure on market yields [7][10] - The central bank's previous suspension of bond buying was attributed to factors such as limited government bond supply and the need to maintain yields at acceptable levels [10][11]

根据最新数据统计，央行公开市场下周将面临20275亿元逆回购到期的流动性回笼压力。这一规模较本 周的9603亿元大幅增加，显示出市场流动性管理将迎来重要考验。 从具体到期安排来看，下周一至周五的逆回购到期金额呈现递增态势。周一到期规模为2205亿元，周二 增至4065亿元，周三为3653亿元，周四达到5093亿元，周五则攀升至5259亿元。这种分布格局表明，周 后半段将成为流动性回笼的集中时点。 当前货币市场环境下，央行持续通过公开市场操作维护流动性合理充裕。6月26日，央行开展5093亿元7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率维持在1.40%。当日有2035亿元逆回购到期，实现单日净投放3058亿元，体 现出央行对市场流动性的呵护态度。 临近季末时点，资金面呈现出复杂的变化特征。银行间质押式回购利率出现分化走势，隔夜品种下行至 1.37%附近，而14天期品种则上行至1.7557%，创下逾一个月新高。这种期限结构的变化反映出市场对 短期流动性的谨慎预期。 债券市场方面，国债期货表现相对平稳。30年期主力合约微涨0.10%，10年期主力合约小幅下跌 0.02%。银行间现券收益率多数回落，10年期国债活跃券收益率下行0.8 ...