Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has resumed government bond trading operations, indicating a shift in monetary policy to enhance liquidity management and ensure smooth financial market operations [1] Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On November 4, the People's Bank of China announced a net injection of 20 billion yuan through government bond trading in October, marking the resumption of operations that had been paused since January 2025 [1] - The central bank's governor, Pan Gongsheng, emphasized the need for flexible government bond trading operations to accommodate the demand for base currency and changes in the bond market's supply and yield curve [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The resumption of government bond trading aligns with the central financial work conference's directive to expand the monetary policy toolkit by gradually increasing government bond transactions in open market operations [1] - The central bank's government bond trading is positioned as a tool for base currency injection and liquidity management, allowing for both buying and selling to enhance the scientific and precise management of liquidity [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's suspension and resumption of treasury bond trading may reflect its policy intention to maintain yield stability, and the bond market's long - term yield may fluctuate within a range in the next stage [1][3] - The price discovery significance of treasury bond trading operations is stronger than the liquidity adjustment significance, and the current interest rate and spread levels may be within the central bank's desirable range [3] - If the base money injection scale formed by treasury bond trading is close to or higher than the same period last year, it may replace reserve requirement ratio cuts [3] Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Central Bank's Actions - At the beginning of this year, considering the large imbalance pressure in the bond market supply - demand and accumulated market risks, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading. Now, with the change in supply - demand contradictions, the central bank will resume the operation. On the supply side, the proportion of government bonds in social financing has been increasing; on the demand side, due to the blocked decline in interest rates and higher expected returns in the stock market, the bond market has lost its previous strong position among major asset classes [3] Impact on M2 Growth - As of September this year, the year - on - year growth rate of China's base money injection was 1.86%. Assuming the year - end base money year - on - year growth rate remains at 1.86% and the money multiplier reaches 8.9 (the highest in August this year), the corresponding M2 year - on - year growth rate is only 6.4% (Scenario 1) [3] - If an additional 50 billion yuan of base money is injected on the basis of Scenario 1, the year - end M2 year - on - year growth rate will reach 7.8% (Scenario 2), lower than the 9 - month growth rate (8.4%) but higher than the 2024 M2 growth rate (7.3%) [3] - To keep the year - end M2 year - on - year growth rate at 8.4% (the same as in September) without reserve requirement ratio cuts, an additional 70 billion yuan of base money needs to be injected on the basis of Scenario 1 (Scenario 3) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of central bank bond purchases is mainly due to the objective need for base - money injection, and factors such as bond market supply - demand and yield curve shape no longer pose major constraints [2][17]. - After the resumption of bond purchases, the bond market curve may initially show a flattening trend, but in the future, it may tend to steepen, and attention should be paid to potential adjustment pressures after the positive news is realized [4][30]. - If there is no further easing expectation, the current 5BP pricing of the 10 - year active treasury bond may be relatively sufficient [4][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Year: Expectations' Repeated Fluctuations and Disappointments - In 2024 from August to December, the central bank's cumulative net bond - buying scale was 100 billion yuan. In January 2025, it announced a phased suspension of bond purchases in the open market [9]. - Reasons for the suspension in early 2025 include controllable government bond supply pressure, the availability of alternative liquidity management tools, and the need to avoid excessive market consensus expectations and potential interest - rate risks [9]. - From the perspective of curve regulation, the operation space was relatively limited at that time. Net selling of bonds to tighten liquidity was unlikely, and achieving a balance in "buying short and selling long" was restricted by the central bank's long - term bond holdings [10]. - Market expectations for the resumption of bond purchases have repeatedly fermented since June, mainly due to the need to improve the monetary policy toolbox, the market's expectation during the bond market adjustment, and the large - scale banks' increased short - term bond purchases [14][15]. 3.2 Reasons for Resuming Bond Purchases - The resumption is mainly due to the objective need for base - money injection. In the fourth quarter, the maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity is high, and there is also potential demand for liquidity, such as high - interest time - deposit maturities and the potential for new policy - based financial instruments to drive credit [17]. - Bond supply scale and the desired interest - rate level are not the main considerations for resuming bond purchases. Currently, government bond supply is nearing the end, and the bond market has previously faced interest - rate increases without resuming bond purchases [23]. - The weakening of bond demand, as reflected by the widening of the primary - secondary market spread of 30 - year treasury bonds since July, provides a logical basis for resuming bond purchases [3][27]. - In terms of the form of bond - buying operations, the scale may be more cautiously controlled this year, "buying short" may dominate, and "selling long" may not necessarily occur [3][29]. 3.3 Bond Market Pricing - Logically, bond purchases will benefit short - term bonds and steepen the curve. However, if large - scale banks have already held a large amount of short - term bonds and reduce their secondary - market replenishment, the impact on the curve may converge [4][30]. - On October 27, the curve flattened, which may indicate that the bond market's strength was driven by the restoration of buying confidence. Resuming bond purchases does not necessarily mean a prelude to reserve - requirement ratio cuts or interest - rate cuts [4][30]. - If there is no further easing expectation, the current 5BP pricing of the 10 - year active treasury bond may be relatively sufficient. In the future, the curve may steepen, and attention should be paid to potential adjustment pressures [4][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to restart government bond trading operations, with conditions becoming suitable for such actions in the fourth quarter of the year [1][2][3] - The current market sentiment is low, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields recently falling below 1.8% and 2.1% respectively, prompting speculation about the PBOC's intervention [1][2] - The PBOC has maintained a pause on government bond trading for eight consecutive months, during which the 10-year bond yield has risen to around 1.8%, indicating a significant shift in the bond market compared to earlier in the year [2][3] Group 2 - The PBOC's operations in the bond market are primarily aimed at liquidity management and injecting base currency, which inevitably influences government bond yield trends [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's potential resumption of bond trading could stabilize bond prices and mitigate negative feedback loops caused by large-scale redemptions of wealth management products [5] - Despite the anticipation of the PBOC's actions, it is noted that the resumption of bond trading may not fundamentally determine the trend of bond yields, as the core factors are related to the relative value between stocks and bonds [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The central bank's bond - buying is mainly a long - term base money injection channel, and the restart of bond - buying may only be a matter of time [2][3] - The impact of the central bank's bond - buying on the bond market and liquidity is neutral [3][4] - The 2024 central bank's bond - buying had a significant impact on short - term treasury bonds, possibly due to the bond - buying method and market expectations [5][6] - The bond - buying method may change in 2025, and its positive impact on the bond market is relatively limited. If the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, bond yields are expected to rise [7] Summary by Related Content Central Bank's Bond - Buying as a Long - term Base Money Injection Channel - In 2023, the Central Financial Work Conference proposed to gradually increase treasury bond trading in central bank open - market operations. In August 2024, the central bank officially carried out treasury bond trading operations [2] - The central bank's positioning for treasury bond trading is to enrich the base money injection channel and communicate with the market on long - term treasury bond yields. In practice, it mainly serves as a money injection channel [2] - Historically, the long - term base money injection channels of the central bank have evolved from foreign exchange reserves to reserve requirement ratio cuts and then to treasury bond trading. With limited room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts, treasury bond trading is a mature alternative [2] Impact of Central Bank's Bond - Buying on the Bond Market and Liquidity - Currently, the central bank's long - term base money injection channels are reserve requirement ratio cuts and treasury bond trading. The impact of reserve requirement ratio cuts on the bond market and liquidity is neutral as it both increases money supply and may be used to fill the money gap and followed by liquidity recycling [3] - The central bank's treasury bond trading is theoretically similar to reserve requirement ratio cuts, and its impact on the bond market and liquidity is also neutral. For example, the Bank of Japan's regular treasury bond purchases led to a significant increase in Japanese bond yields [3][4] Impact of the 2024 Central Bank's Bond - Buying - In 2024, the central bank's bond - buying significantly affected short - term treasury bonds. The 2 - year China Development Bank bond - 2 - year treasury bond spread rose to nearly 40BP during the bond - buying period from August to December 2024, indicating a significant decline in 2 - year treasury bond yields [5] - Possible reasons include the bond - buying method (banks buying in the secondary market and then the central bank buying from them, with banks not being price - sensitive) and market expectations of loose monetary policy [6] Changes in Bond - Buying Method in 2025 and Its Impact on the Bond Market - On May 12, 2025, banks started buying treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, possibly in preparation for the central bank to restart bond - buying. The current 2 - year China Development Bank bond - 2 - year treasury bond spread is within a reasonable range, which may be related to the change in banks' bond - buying method [7] - The central bank's announcement of bond - buying may be subject to policy guidance or significant increases in bond yields. The positive impact on the bond market is limited, and if the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, bond yields are expected to rise [7]