Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China maintains the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, indicating a stable monetary policy amid economic recovery efforts [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The monetary policy is characterized by moderate easing, effectively supporting macroeconomic stability [1] - M2 growth reached 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [2] - M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, the highest since May 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for current deposits [2] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.7%, the lowest since 2022, suggesting a rebound in investment and consumption [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low at 0.1%, and Producer Price Index (PPI) at -3.6%, reflecting cautious expectations among economic entities [2] Social Financing and Government Bonds - Social financing stock grew by 8.9% year-on-year, indicating an improving financing environment for the real economy [3] - Government bonds are the main contributor to the increase in social financing, with a 21.3% year-on-year growth [3] - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3] Loan Structure and Consumer Behavior - Residents show caution in short-term loans, reflecting weak consumer confidence, while long-term loans are supported by policy and real estate market recovery [5] - Corporate loans increased, indicating a willingness to invest in production expansion and technological upgrades [5] - The stability of LPR rates suggests no significant changes in influencing factors, with banks facing high interest margin pressures [5] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The monetary policy should remain moderately loose, with potential for further rate cuts depending on inflation trends [6] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to support key sectors like small enterprises and green development [6] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is essential to create a synergistic effect [7] - Enhanced management of monetary policy expectations and risk monitoring in key areas like real estate and local government debt is necessary [7]

Core Insights - The financial policies implemented have shown effectiveness, leading to increased economic activity and support from financial institutions, resulting in a "total growth and structural optimization" in credit for June and the first half of the year [2][3] Monetary Supply - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, growing by 4.6% year-on-year. The cash in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, up 12% year-on-year [2][6] - A net cash injection of 363.3 billion yuan occurred in the first half of the year [2] Social Financing - The total social financing stock at the end of June was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. The cumulative increase in social financing for the first half of the year was 2.283 trillion yuan, which is 474 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][6] Credit Growth - In June, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month, ending a two-month trend of substantial year-on-year decreases. The loan balance growth rate remained stable at 7.1% [3][4] - The increase in credit was attributed to several factors, including seasonal trends, effective financial policies, and improved business conditions [3] Sectoral Loan Distribution - In June, corporate medium- and long-term loans increased by 40 billion yuan year-on-year, while household medium- and long-term loans rose by 15.1 billion yuan, and short-term loans increased by 15 billion yuan [4] - The first half of the year saw a total of 12.92 trillion yuan in new RMB loans, indicating a more precise and effective support for the real economy [4] Focus Areas for Lending - New loans were primarily directed towards manufacturing, infrastructure, and key areas such as green, technology, inclusive, elderly care, and digital loans, which all saw growth rates exceeding the overall loan growth [4][5] Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary and credit policies, focusing on supporting the real economy and addressing structural issues in key industries [5][7] - There is an expectation for continued growth in social financing and M2, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and aligning financing growth with economic growth and price stability [7][8]

Domestic News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strict legal punishment for market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering in the financial sector [2] - As of the second quarter of this year, China's private enterprises have experienced 21 consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth in imports and exports, with a sustained leading growth rate [2] - Preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China indicate that the cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first half of 2025 is 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, 2025, using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method [2] - Recent trade talks in Geneva and London have shown positive progress, with a rebound in China-US trade; the import and export value in June increased from less than 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline [2] - As of the end of June, the broad money (M2) balance is 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%; the narrow money (M1) balance is 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; and the currency in circulation (M0) balance is 13.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% [2] International News - The Indian Trade Minister reports that trade negotiations between India and the US are progressing rapidly [3] - Brazil plans to request the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, while also announcing reciprocal measures regarding US tariffs [4] - The General Administration of Customs of China will implement zero tariffs for 53 African countries that have established diplomatic relations [5] - The National Healthcare Security Administration of China reports that the basic medical insurance coverage rate remains stable at over 95% [5] - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China states that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicates that there is currently no urgent need for interest rate cuts [6] - The EU trade chief plans to meet with US counterparts to discuss the current situation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 226.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan into the market after accounting for 106.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Market Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a slight increase, with overnight Shibor rising by 8.20 basis points to 1.4150%, 7-day Shibor up by 4.00 basis points to 1.5150%, and 14-day Shibor increasing by 2.10 basis points to 1.5350% [2][3]. - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight rates rose slightly above 1.4%, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates increasing by 8.1 basis points and 8.0 basis points, respectively, to 1.424% and 1.4837% [4]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment on July 14 was characterized as balanced but slightly tight, with increased borrowing demand from banking institutions compared to the previous week. Overnight rates for collateralized deposits were around 1.50%, while 7-day rates were near 1.53% [10]. - By the end of the day, the overnight collateralized deposit rates stabilized around 1.55%, with 7-day rates climbing to between 1.55% and 1.58% [10]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - On July 14, there were 96 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 177.94 billion yuan. The trading sentiment was less active than expected due to tax periods and market expectations [11]. - The secondary market for certificates of deposit maintained an upward trend, with the 1-year large bank deposit rate stabilizing around 1.6375% by the end of the day [11]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Financing - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 330.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [13]. - The total social financing scale for the first half of 2025 reached 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [13].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released financial statistics for the first half of 2025, indicating a moderate monetary policy aimed at maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy. Group 1: Monetary Supply - Broad money (M2) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan by the end of June [2] - Narrow money (M1) grew by 4.6% year-on-year, totaling 113.95 trillion yuan [2] - Cash in circulation (M0) rose by 12% year-on-year, amounting to 13.18 trillion yuan, with a net cash injection of 363.3 billion yuan in the first half [2] Group 2: Loans and Deposits - Total RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [3] - Household loans rose by 1.17 trillion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [3] - Total RMB deposits grew by 17.94 trillion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [5] Group 3: Foreign Currency Loans and Deposits - Foreign currency loans decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total balance of 560.9 billion USD [4] - Foreign currency deposits increased by 21.7% year-on-year, reaching 1.02 trillion USD [6] Group 4: Interbank Market and Interest Rates - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB lending was 1.46%, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [8] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market was 974.04 trillion yuan, with a daily average transaction of 8.12 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [7] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Cross-Border Settlements - The national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.32 trillion USD by the end of June [9] - Cross-border RMB settlement for current accounts reached 8.3 trillion yuan, with direct investment settlements totaling 4.11 trillion yuan [10] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [11] - The focus will be on enhancing financial services for the real economy, particularly in technology innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [11]

Group 1: Monetary Supply - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [5] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 113.95 trillion yuan, growing by 4.6% year-on-year [5] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% [5] - A net cash injection of 363.3 billion yuan occurred in the first half of the year [5] Group 2: Loan Growth - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [6] - Household loans rose by 1.17 trillion yuan, with short-term loans decreasing by 300 million yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 1.17 trillion yuan [6] - Corporate loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up by 4.3 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans up by 7.17 trillion yuan [6] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in loans of 33.1 billion yuan [6] Group 3: Deposit Growth - RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [8] - By the end of June, the total balance of RMB deposits was 320.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [8] - Household deposits rose by 10.77 trillion yuan, while non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.77 trillion yuan [8] Group 4: Interbank Market Rates - The weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB lending in June was 1.46%, down 0.09 percentage points from the previous month and 0.41 percentage points from the same period last year [10] - The average interest rate for pledged bond repurchase agreements was 1.5%, also lower than the previous month and year [10] Group 5: Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first half of 2025 was 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - By the end of June, the total social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [3] Group 6: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.32 trillion USD by the end of June [11] - The exchange rate for RMB against USD was 7.1586 yuan per dollar at the end of June [11] Group 7: Cross-Border RMB Settlement - The amount of cross-border RMB settlement under the current account reached 8.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [12] - Direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amounted to 4.11 trillion yuan, with outbound direct investment at 1.46 trillion yuan and foreign direct investment at 2.65 trillion yuan [12]

央行：6月末，广义货币(M2)余额330.29万亿元，同比增长8.3%。狭义货币(M1)余额113.95万亿元，同 比增长4.6%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.18万亿元，同比增长12%。上半年净投放现金3633亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of May 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, indicating a recovery in short-term trading activities among enterprises [1] - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and the incremental social financing for the first five months was 18.63 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year by 3.83 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In May, the balance of RMB loans increased by 7.1% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 620 billion yuan, although the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Analysts suggest that the current economy is at a critical stage of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, requiring a shift in monetary and fiscal policies from "quantity" to "mechanism" integration [2] - It is anticipated that in the third quarter, the implementation of loan interest subsidies for equipment upgrades will marginally improve manufacturing investment, facilitating financial support for the real economy [2]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3377 points, down 0.75%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10122.11 points, down 1.1% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 15040 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors, only 4 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in oil and petrochemicals, national defense and military, and electric power and utilities, while comprehensive finance, media, and textile and apparel sectors faced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.79%, the S&P 500 down 1.13%, and the Nasdaq down 1.3% [2][4] - Major technology stocks also fell, with Nvidia dropping over 2% and Facebook down more than 1% [2][4] Financial Data - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is 3.83 trillion more than the same period last year [9][16] - As of the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [9][16] Key News - The State Council held a meeting to deploy pilot measures for the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone, aiming to replicate and promote these measures to enhance high-level opening-up and deep reforms [14] - The fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo concluded with 176 signed projects amounting to 11.39 billion USD, marking a 45.8% increase in project numbers and a 10.6% increase in project value compared to the previous expo [18]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report indicates that the iron ore market has repeated expectations and is in a range - bound oscillation [1]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 703.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton or - 0.14%. The position was 695,640 hands, with a decrease of 21,059 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%) dropped 1.0 yuan/ton to 816.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 719.0 yuan/ton, etc. Some domestic ores remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the basis (12505 vs. Super Special) decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton to 164.1 yuan/ton, and the 12509 - 12601 spread decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton to 30.5 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2]. 3. Macro and Industry News - As of the end of May, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year - on - year; narrow - money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% year - on - year; and the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, up 12.1% year - on - year. A net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan was made in the first five months [3]. - Guangzhou released a draft plan to boost consumption, including optimizing real - estate policies such as canceling purchase, resale, and price restrictions, and reducing down - payment ratios and loan interest rates [3].