Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core price level is gradually recovering, with financial support for the real economy increasing, indicating a gradual accumulation of internal economic momentum under policy support [1] - In June 2025, the CPI rose from -0.1% to 0.1%, while the PPI decreased from -3.3% to -3.6% [1] - The manufacturing PMI increased from 49.5% to 49.7%, showing slight improvement in manufacturing activity [1] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The core CPI growth has been continuously recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, the highest in nearly 14 months [4] - Factors contributing to the core CPI recovery include rising gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [4] Group 3: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [7] - The decrease in PPI is attributed to slower construction in real estate and infrastructure, as well as an oversupply of industrial raw materials [7] Group 4: PMI Insights - The PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating seasonal recovery [10] - Among 21 surveyed industries, 11 are in the expansion zone, reflecting improved manufacturing sentiment [10] Group 5: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 3.7% in May, with real estate development investment declining by 12.9% [13] - The decline in real estate sales and investment growth is contributing to a negative feedback loop with falling housing prices and PPI [13] Group 6: Credit Performance - New RMB loans in June amounted to 22.4 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 6.2 billion yuan [16] - The strong credit performance is driven by multiple factors, including seasonal increases in lending and effective financial policies [16] Group 7: M2 Growth - M2 growth accelerated to 8.3% in June, the highest in nearly 15 months, with a notable narrowing of the M1-M2 gap [20] - The increase in M2 and M1 indicates improved financial support for the real economy, although M1 growth remains relatively low [20]

往后看，监管层会持续引导银行加大对实体经济的信贷投放力度，在外部环境波动过程中强化逆周期调 节，财政部门也会通过优化以旧换新等政策工具，加力促消费，下半年企业和居民的投资、消费活跃度 有望持续改善，加之上年同期低基数效应还会进一步发酵，将抵消隐债置换规模消退的影响，我们判 断，未来M1增速还有上升空间，M1、M2剪刀差有望继续收窄。我们也认为，未来M1增速能否向常态 水平回归,进而持续缩小M1、M2剪刀差，关键还是要强化各类宏观政策逆周期调节，深化结构性改 革，大力改善营商环境，有效提升实体经济增长动能；就短期而言，加大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 的效果最强。 本文作者 | 研究发展部 王青 冯琳 6月末在M2增速加快0.4个百分点至8.3%、创近15个月以来最高过程中，M1与M2剪刀差不升反降，显著 收窄1.9个百分点，至3.7个百分点。主要原因是6月末M1增速较上月末大幅加快2.3个百分点至4.6%，创 近25个月以最高。 6月末M1增速显著加快，主要有以下四个原因: 作为广义货币供应量的一个重要指标，M2主要由各类存款构成，代表金融体系对实体经济的支持力 度；M1主要由各类活期存款构成，代表实体经济的投 ...

此外，增加科技创新再贷款、支农支小再贷款额度各3000亿元，合并使用证券、保险等机构金融工具额 度8000亿元，并下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点。政策落地效果显著，截至5月末科技创新技改贷款签约 达1.74万亿元。7月央行联合多部门印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，提出19项举措 强化消费全链条金融支持，推动形成"供给创造需求"的良性循环。 金融支持措施方面，2025年上半年，央行推出一揽子金融支持措施，聚焦科技创新与提振消费两大主 线：5月创设5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，定向支持住宿餐饮、文旅体娱、教育养老等领域高质量 供给；同步设立科技创新债券风险分担工具，助力股权投资机构发债融资，截至6月末已支持27家机构 发行超150亿元科创债券。 最新金融数据显示，2025年上半年社会融资规模增量累计为22.83万亿元，比上年同期多4.74万亿元。上 半年人民币贷款增加12.92万亿元。人民币存款增加17.94万亿元。6月，M1-M2剪刀差为3.7个百分点， 较5月的5.6个百分点缩小1.9个百分点。 中信证券指出，6月信贷增速与社融增速有所上行，存款派生效应及化债政策持续推进，都有助于企业 资金 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 社融同比增幅收窄，但金融支持并未减弱 ——2025 年 5 月社融数据点评 研究结论 事件：2025 年 6 月 13 日央行公布最新金融数据，2025 年 5 月社会融资规模增量为 22871 亿元，比上年同期多增 2248 亿元（上个月同比多增 12249 亿元）；社会融资规 模存量为 426.16 万亿元，同比增长 8.7%（前值 8.7%，后同）。 风险提示 ⚫ 贸易战升级背景下经济复苏不及预期的风险；海外货币政策超预期紧缩的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S086052001 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/6/16 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 5月金融数据点评—— 政府债仍为关键驱动 图表1：金融数据主要分项 | | | | | | 当月新增 | | | | | | 同比多增 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：亿元 | | | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2024/12 | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2024/12 | | | 总 | 社融规模 | 22894 | 11591 | 58894 | 22375 | 70546 | 28507 | 2271 | 12249 | 10559 | 7416 | 5812 | 9181 | | | 表内融资 | 人民币贷款 | ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[5] - The estimated fiscal funding of 139.2 billion yuan represents 42% of the progress towards the target, closely aligning with the scheduled progress of 5/12[5] - The retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old-for-new" program has reached 12.4% of the population with 175 million subsidies issued, indicating significant coverage and potential for future growth[5] - The demand for building and decoration materials improved in April, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, the highest since December 2021[9] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry surged to a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April, reflecting strong consumer interest driven by rising gold prices[9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - The total social financing scale increased by 11.59 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[12] - Government bond issuance maintained a rapid pace, with new issuance of 972.9 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year[13] - Corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year in April, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 633 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing methods[13] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies continue to impact market risk appetite, contributing to uncertainty in trade relations[5] - The restructuring of the industrial chain due to tariffs poses risks of global growth slowdown and overcapacity[5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3380.82[1] - The CSI 300 Index stands at 3907.20[1] - The Shenzhen Component Index is reported at 10186.44[1] Social Financing Insights - In April 2025, the social financing increment was 1.16 trillion CNY, down from 5.89 trillion CNY in March 2025, slightly below the market expectation of 1.26 trillion CNY[7] - The year-on-year increase in social financing increment for April 2025 was 1.22 trillion CNY, the highest since February 2023[8] - The government bond financing in April 2025 increased by 1.07 trillion CNY, accounting for 87.7% of the total social financing increment[8] Loan Dynamics - The new RMB loans recorded a year-on-year decrease of 246.5 billion CNY in April 2025, only 11% of the average for the same month over the past five years, indicating a significant lack of demand for financing in the real economy[8] - The total new RMB loans for April 2025 were reported at -2.45 trillion CNY, compared to 5.31 trillion CNY in March 2025[10] Monetary Supply Trends - M2 growth rate in April 2025 was +8.0%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rate was +1.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[15] - The decline in the M1-M2 gap indicates a decrease in economic vitality[15] Investment Recommendations - Buy: Expected investment returns over the next six months are projected to exceed a 10% increase relative to the CSI 300 Index[18] - Hold: Expected investment returns are projected to be between -10% to +5% relative to the CSI 300 Index[18]

5月15日，大盘未能保住昨日站上3400点的战果，截至收盘，报收3380.82点，全天下跌0.68%，沪深两 市有3800多家个股下跌。 从过去A股十几个交易日的走势来看，虽说利好频传，先有央行宣布降准降息，后有中美关税战按下暂 停键，但上攻力度总是不够犀利，在缺乏连阳的走势下，让人产生一种跌跌撞撞的感觉。 分析今日大盘下跌原因，或与4月金融数据有关。从昨日盘后央行公布的数据来看，4月末，广义货币 （M2）余额同比增长8%，较上月大幅上行1个百分点；狭义货币(M1)余额同比增长1.5%，较上月末小 幅回落0.1个百分点。同时，M1-M2剪刀差为6.5个百分点，较3月的5.4个百分点扩大了1.1个百分点。 具体来看，目前M1与M2的构成及其含义。从2025年起，我国M1启用新的统计口径，包括：流通中货 币（M0）、单位活期存款、个人活期存款、非银行支付机构客户备付金。而如果M1增加则意味着居民 和企业拿在手中准备随时花出去的钱增多，也就是说老百姓(603883)手头现金充裕，消费能力变强，生 活便利性提升。同时市场交易也变得活跃，资金流转加快，企业扩大生产意愿增强。 M2则是在M1的基础上，增加了单位定期存款、 ...