证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电网设备 四方股份（601126） 2025 年一季报点评：盈利能力提升，业绩略 超市场预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,751 | 6,951 | 8,327 | 9,809 | 11,408 | | 同比（%） | 13.24 | 20.86 | 19.80 | 17.79 | 16.31 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 627.21 | 715.59 | 884.78 | 1,055.06 | 1,238.28 | | 同比（%） | 15.46 | 14.09 | 23.64 | 19.25 | 17.37 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.75 | 0.86 | 1.06 | 1.27 | 1.49 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 21.36 | 18.72 | 15.14 | 12.70 | 10.82 | [关键词： Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 57.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.61 billion yuan, up 6.06% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased investment in China's power grid and the acceleration of digitalization in the sector, with projected revenues of 64.55 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 12.42% [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 57.42 billion yuan, a growth of 11.15% compared to 2023, and a net profit of 7.61 billion yuan, up 6.06% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.89 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.76% [1]. Business Segments - The smart grid business generated revenue of 28.47 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 10.70% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.61 percentage points to 29.52% [2]. - The energy low-carbon business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 12.19 billion yuan, up 26.43% year-on-year, although its gross margin decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 22.98% [3]. Market Expansion - The company signed new contracts worth 66.32 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.78%, with domestic revenue growing by 7.76% to 54.04 billion yuan [4]. - Internationally, the company achieved a revenue of 3.28 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 135.14% year-on-year [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 8.47 billion yuan, 9.39 billion yuan, and 10.35 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.29 yuan [6]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22, 20, and 18 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6].

证券研究报告 能源/工业 葡西法大范围停电，强化电网升级、 直流电网、黑启动机组必要性 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 29 日│中国内地 动态点评 南欧部分区域突发大范围停电，波及多个国家 根据 BBC 等媒体报道，2025 年 4 月 28 日当地中午时间，西班牙、葡萄牙 以及法国南部部分地区突发大范围停电，对当地电力、通信、交通产生大面 积影响。停电事故发生原因仍在调查中，业内推测的可能原因包括极端气温、 网络袭击等。此次大停电事故或进一步强化欧洲电网升级投资需求，看好我 国电力设备出海企业投资机会：思源电气，三星医疗等；直流电网故障阻隔 优势或提升，看好国电南瑞，中国西电。其他产业链公司：许继电气，西门 子能源等。 停电后续影响或超预期，关注事态演变 截止 2025 年 4 月 28 日当地时间下午 14：30，法国电网运营商 RTE 表示 受影响地区已恢复供电，而西班牙输电网运营商 Red Electrica 表示恢复供 电需要 6~10 个小时，葡萄牙电力公司 REN 则表示完全恢复供电正常预计 需要一周。根据国网能源研究院复盘，历史上全球的数十次大停电事故中， 由天灾引发的不到 20%，而其他原 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 results with revenue of 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Q1 Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.4% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 440 million yuan, increasing by 28% [1] - Gross margin stood at 30.3%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin was 13.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Domestic ultra-high voltage market has seen breakthroughs, with significant growth in grid investment; Q1 grid infrastructure completion reached 95.6 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year [2] - The company successfully won bids for 750kV equipment, marking a breakthrough in the high-end product market, which is expected to enhance gross margins in domestic operations [2] - International demand for power grid construction remains high, with transformer and high-voltage switch exports increasing by 40% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 3: Cost Management and Financial Health - Q1 2025 operating expenses were 480 million yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with an expense ratio of 14.8%, down 1.5 percentage points, indicating effective cost control [3] - Inventory at the end of Q1 2025 was 4.1 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year, while contract liabilities rose to 2.84 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, showing solid growth foundations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 2.73 billion, 3.54 billion, and 4.56 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 33%, 30%, and 29%, respectively [4] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 21x, 16x, and 12x, with a "buy" rating maintained [4]

业绩同比高速增长，费用管理能力优异 公司25 年Q1 实现营收32.27 亿元（yoy+21.41%），归母净利4.46 亿元（yoy+22.91%），实现扣非归母 净利4.37 亿元（yoy+28.10%）。公司25年Q1 实现毛、净利率30.31%、14.36%，同比-0.39、+0.76pct。 公司25年Q1 期间费用率14.79%，同比-1.49pct，其中销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为5.03%、 2.77%、-0.90%、7.90%，同比持平、-0.22、-1.14、-0.14pct，费用管理能力优异。 海外需求保持强劲，海外营收占比持续提升 国内24 年变压器出口额67.0 亿美元，同增26.6%；25 年Q1 出口额18.2亿美元，同增38.5%，海外需求保 持强劲，公司的高电压等级产品出海或具备更强持续性。公司2024 年国内/海外业务分别实现收入 123.36、31.22亿元，同比增长19.74%、44.67%；海外占比达20.2%，同比+2.88pct。2024年公司在英 国、意大利、沙特、科威特等多个高端市场实现突破，我们认为后续盈利能力将伴随海外营收占比进一 步提升。 公司25 ...

Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 440 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.1%, meeting expectations [1] Operational Analysis - Domestic investment in the power grid reached a record high, with the State Grid completing fixed asset investments exceeding 90 billion yuan, a nearly 30% year-on-year increase [2] - The first batch of bidding for power transmission and transformation equipment by the State Grid amounted to 15.2 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, marking a four-year high [2] - The company secured contracts worth 1.05 billion yuan, including an unexpected 350 million yuan for 750kV GIS, enhancing its market share [2] - Transformer exports in Q1 2025 reached 1.82 billion USD, a 39% year-on-year increase, indicating sustained high growth [2] - The company made breakthroughs in markets such as the UK, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, benefiting from overseas demand for power equipment [2] Order Backlog and Targets - As of Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities reached 2.84 billion yuan, a 19.91% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating a robust order backlog [3] - The company aims to secure new orders of 26.8 billion yuan (excluding tax) in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% [3] - The revenue target for 2025 is set at 18.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth expectation [3] Profitability and Cost Control - The company's overall gross margin in Q1 2025 was 30.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 14.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [4] - The expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D were 5.0%, 2.8%, and 7.9% respectively, showing stable management of expenses [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has a clear development strategy and business plan, with expectations for continued revenue growth in various product lines [5] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.6 billion, 3.23 billion, and 3.97 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 24%, and 23% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 22, 18, and 14 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company discussed in the conference call is involved in the high-voltage equipment sector, focusing on the development and delivery of high-pressure and distribution network products. Key Financial Highlights - For the year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.4 billion yuan, an increase of 12% from 11.08 billion yuan in the previous year, with a profit of 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.43% [1][2][3]. - The high-pressure segment generated 7.7 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 25% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The distribution network segment reported a revenue of 3.24 billion yuan, an 11.45% increase from 2.9 billion yuan [3]. Segment Performance High-Pressure Segment - The high-pressure segment has shown consistent growth, with a 55% increase in revenue from 2022 to 2024 [2]. - The gross margin for this segment improved to 25.53%, up by 2.66 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Distribution Network Segment - The distribution network segment has also been improving, with a gross margin of 16.03%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points [3]. - The segment has transitioned from losses in previous years to generating a profit of 118 million yuan this year, a 31% increase [3]. International Segment - The international segment faced challenges, reporting a loss of 200 million yuan, primarily due to geopolitical factors and project delays [4]. - Revenue from this segment decreased by approximately 400 to 500 million yuan compared to the previous year [4]. Maintenance Segment - The maintenance segment's revenue remained stable at 1.164 billion yuan, but the gross margin decreased by 4.61 percentage points due to changes in contract structures [5]. Contract and Order Status - The total contracts for the year reached 16.5 billion yuan, a 14% increase from 14.5 billion yuan the previous year [6]. - The high-pressure segment accounted for 12.5 billion yuan of the contracts, a 13.6% increase [6]. - The company is actively cleaning up its international contracts, with a focus on eliminating low-margin projects [11]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue target of 12.5 to 13.5 billion yuan for 2025, with expectations of stable growth across segments [17]. - The gross margin is expected to improve, driven by internal cost management and a focus on high-margin products [37][42]. Industry Trends - The overall investment in the power grid is projected to remain strong, with a reported increase of 33.5% in the first quarter of the year [19]. - The company is optimistic about the growth of the high-voltage equipment market, particularly in nuclear and large power generation sectors [8][31]. Additional Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness through vertical integration and self-manufacturing of key components [28][44]. - The shift towards high-end products and international market expansion is seen as crucial for maintaining profitability and growth [44]. Conclusion - The company is positioned well within the high-voltage equipment industry, with strong growth in domestic contracts and a strategic focus on improving margins and expanding internationally. The outlook remains positive, supported by robust market demand and ongoing investments in infrastructure.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong start to 2025, with Q1 revenue of 25.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan, up 55.9% year-on-year [4][5] - The company achieved a total revenue of 124.02 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 12.0% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 10.23 billion yuan, which is a 25.4% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025 down to 15.13 billion yuan from 15.69 billion yuan, while increasing the 2026 forecast to 17.79 billion yuan from 17.31 billion yuan, and introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 20.08 billion yuan [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's domestic switch manufacturing segment generated revenue of 109.40 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase year-on-year, with the high-voltage segment contributing 76.98 billion yuan, up 25.1% [5] - The company's gross margin improved to 22.4% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.0%, both showing year-on-year increases [4][5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.12 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.9 for 2025, 13.5 for 2026, and 12.0 for 2027 [4][7] Industry Outlook - The investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, continuing the trend of high investment levels in the sector [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing high demand for power grid construction and the recent initiatives to enhance the quality of distribution networks [6]

Group 1 - YN Holdings reported a revenue of approximately 12.155 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.43%, but still incurred a net loss of approximately 121 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of about 554 million yuan in 2023 [1] - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of approximately 2.369 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 214.51% [1] - YN Holdings operates in various sectors including thermal power generation, renewable energy, pumped storage, coal trading logistics, and comprehensive energy services [1] Group 2 - Guoji Precision reported a revenue of 2.658 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.53%, primarily due to a strategic adjustment in trade business, leading to a 47.65% drop in trade revenue [2] - The company achieved a net profit of 280 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.11% [2] - Guoji Precision's main business includes bearing, abrasive tools, and supply chain services [2] Group 3 - Siwei Liekong reported a revenue of 1.515 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.38%, with a net profit of 548 million yuan, up 33.08% [3] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was approximately 549 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.02% [3] - Siwei Liekong focuses on information transmission, software, and IT services, primarily serving the national railway safety sector [3] Group 4 - XJ Electric reported a revenue of 17.089 billion yuan for 2024, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.17%, with a net profit of 1.117 billion yuan, up 11.09% [4] - The company invested 880 million yuan in R&D, a year-on-year increase of 10.84%, but its net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 52.74% to 1.299 billion yuan [4] - XJ Electric focuses on ultra-high voltage, smart grid, renewable energy, electric vehicle charging, rail transit, and industrial intelligence [4] Group 5 - Pinggao Electric reported a revenue of 12.402 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.96%, with a net profit of 1.023 billion yuan, up 25.43% [5] - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.14% [5] - Pinggao Electric's business encompasses the R&D, design, manufacturing, and sales of power transmission and distribution equipment and core components [5] Group 6 - Linzhou Heavy Machinery reported a total revenue of approximately 1.684 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.38%, with a net profit of approximately 95.344 million yuan, down 18.47% [6] - The company's comprehensive gross margin was 28.31%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous year [6] - The coal machinery and comprehensive service segment generated approximately 1.644 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year decline of 7.30% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The electricity consumption growth in January and February 2025 was modest at 1.3%, primarily due to warm winter temperatures and a high base effect from the leap year in 2024, leading to a decline in electricity demand across various sectors [1][2]. Demand - In January and February 2025, total electricity consumption reached 155.64 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from December 2024. The contributions to overall electricity growth were 7.7% from primary industry, 40.4% from secondary industry, 50.7% from tertiary industry, and 1.6% from residential use [2]. - The secondary industry's electricity consumption growth rate declined, with high-energy-consuming sectors experiencing a slowdown. High-energy regions saw a consumption growth rate drop to 2.4%, while coastal regions continued to decline [2]. Supply - As of February 2025, the installed capacity of power plants with 600,000 kW and above reached 298 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. In January and February, new installations totaled 54,530 MW, including 39,470 MW of solar power [3]. - Power source investment amounted to 75.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, but down 11.9 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024. Conversely, grid investment reached 43.6 billion yuan, up 33.5% year-on-year, marking an 18.2 percentage point increase from 2024 [3]. Consumption - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment in January and February were 505 hours, down 10.3% year-on-year. Specifically, hydropower utilization was 368 hours (down 0.3%), thermal power was 691 hours (down 9.4%), nuclear power was 1,226 hours (up 0.8%), wind power was 363 hours (down 2.7%), and solar power was 166 hours (down 1.2%) [4]. - In February, the domestic wind power utilization rate was 92.9%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the solar power utilization rate remained stable at 93.4% [4]. The decline in thermal power utilization hours is attributed to the expansion of thermal power installations in 2024 and limited electricity demand growth in 2025 [4]. Investment Opportunities - Focus on long-term assets such as hydropower and nuclear power, which benefit from declining interest rates and return expectations. Low-valuation green electricity stocks in Hong Kong present a safety margin and potential policy improvements [6]. - Selective investments in sectors with resource advantages or superior business models, such as offshore wind and integrated coal power [6]. - Opportunities arising from the integration of digitalization and new power systems, including virtual power plants, microgrids, and comprehensive energy services [6].