每日经济新闻 东吴证券研报表示，2025Q3电网投资持续维持高景气，Q3整体保持双位数增长。2025年1-8月，我 国电网基础建设投资完成额约3796亿元，同比+13.1%，保持双位数增长。作为"十四五"收官之年，电 网聚焦特高压、主网补强&改造、配网升级等领域，持续加大投入。展望全年，预计电网投资有望实现 同比超10%以上增长。 电网设备ETF（159326）是全市场唯一跟踪中证电网设备主题指数的ETF，从申万三级行业分类上 看，指数成分股的行业分布以输变电设备、电网自动化设备、线缆部件及其他、通信线缆及配套、配电 设备为主，拥有较强的代表性。特高压权重占比高达64%，全市场最高。 11月18日，A股三大指数延续回调态势，前期表现强势的电网设备板块也出现阶段下行，当日电网 设备ETF（159326）跌1.7%，近期呈现阶段调整态势，最近5个交易日跌6.1%，却逆势"吸金"超2.5亿 元，行业高景气支撑下，短期回调或迎低位布局机会。 美国电网监管机构北美电力可靠性公司（NERC）在最新冬季评估报告中警告，当下数据中心用电 需求激增，而电力供应未能同步跟上，今年冬季美国电力消耗预计将比去年同期增加约20吉瓦（相 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scode 公司研究丨点评报告丨宏盛华源（ Msg1] 601096.SH） [Table_Title] 毛利率同比继续改善，盈利增速环比下降 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报。公司 2025 前三季度营业收入 73.4 亿元，同比-3.1%；归母净利润 2.8 亿元，同比+58.5%；扣非净利润 2.7 亿元，同比+88.9%。单季度看，公司 2025Q3 营业收 入 24.4 亿元，同比-0.1%，环比-6.7%；归母净利润 0.8 亿元，同比+9.3%，环比-22.8%；扣非 净利润 0.8 亿元，同比+16.1%，环比-21.5%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 司鸿历 袁澎 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490524010001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BVD284 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年三季报。公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Nari (600406) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is steadily improving, with a continuous increase in contract liabilities. As of Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 38.577 billion yuan, representing an 18.45% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, up 8.43% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin has slightly declined due to a higher proportion of lower-margin external business revenue, with a gross margin of 26.47% for the first three quarters of 2025, down 2.79 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company has seen significant growth in overseas business, with overseas revenue reaching 1.987 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 139.18% increase year-on-year [6] - The report includes new profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 8.354 billion, 9.344 billion, and 10.197 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.04, 1.16, and 1.27 yuan per share [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 64.567 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.5% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 8.354 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% year-on-year increase [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 26.5% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.5% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 23 times [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 17.0 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.94 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 0.92 billion yuan, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for this quarter was 0.34 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year and up 12.2% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 22.34%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 23.38%, showing a slight decrease of 0.20 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.09 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [11]. - The company’s total inventory at the end of Q3 2025 was 5.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.5%. Contract liabilities reached 5.066 billion yuan, up 29.3% year-on-year but down 4.8% quarter-on-quarter [11]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.29 billion yuan for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 32 times [11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2][4]. - Q3 2025 revenue was 5.67 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [2][4]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 0.94 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 22.34%, reflecting improved cost control [11]. Cost and Expenses - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters was 13.09%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - In Q3 2025, the expense ratio was 14.18%, showing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [11]. Financial Health - The company’s asset-liability ratio at the end of Q3 2025 was 46.26%, a year-on-year increase of 0.48 percentage points [11]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 0.555 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.4% year-on-year [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from continued growth in grid investment and ongoing cost reduction efforts, leading to sustained operational growth [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the Electric Grid Equipment ETF (159326) showing a decline of 1.96% but attracting significant capital inflow, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:12 on November 14, the Electric Grid Equipment ETF (159326) recorded a trading volume of 2.41 billion yuan, with notable stocks like Neng Electric, Yongfu Shares, Jinlihua Electric, Jinlongyu, and others rising against the market trend [1] - On November 13, the ETF saw a net inflow of over 1.48 billion yuan, bringing its total scale to over 18 billion yuan, a record high since its inception [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the electric grid is in a post-cycle phase of renewable energy development, with a significant investment gap that needs to be filled as the country aims for future renewable energy goals [1] - For the "14th Five-Year Plan," the expected national grid investment scale is projected to exceed 4.1 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 5-6%, focusing on enhancing the main grid framework and smart upgrades to the distribution network [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The Electric Grid Equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, cable components, and distribution equipment [1] - The ETF has a high weight of 64% in ultra-high voltage stocks, the highest in the market, and includes leading companies like Guodian NARI, TBEA, Siyuan Electric, and Trina Solar among its top ten holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The electric grid equipment sector is experiencing a significant influx of capital, with the electric grid equipment ETF (159326) reaching a historical high in scale, driven by strong demand for power energy and AI investments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 14, the electric grid equipment ETF (159326) saw a decline of 2.1%, with a trading volume exceeding 2 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past 10 trading days, the electric grid equipment ETF attracted over 1.372 billion yuan, increasing its scale from 125 million yuan at the end of September to 1.890 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The current AI investment boom is significantly stimulating global demand for electric energy, with Hitachi Energy extending its market growth forecast from 2030 to 2035 [1]. - According to Huatai Securities, the new standards for electric meters are expected to lead to stable volume and rising prices in the industry by 2026, enhancing corporate profitability [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The ongoing global electricity shortage is expected to accelerate overseas grid investments, benefiting China's electric grid equipment sector and opening up export opportunities [1]. - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) tracks the China Securities Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation, and cable components [2].

Group 1: Industry Insights - The State Grid's third batch of metering equipment bidding for 2025 has seen a price increase of 47% and 44% for electric meters and transformers compared to the second batch, marking a recovery in prices [1] - National grid engineering investment reached 437.8 billion yuan from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [1] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the new standard for electric meters, predicting stable volume and rising prices in the industry by 2026, which will enhance corporate profitability [1] - The global demand for AI computing power continues to drive electricity shortages, accelerating overseas grid investments, which may benefit Chinese grid equipment exports [1] - CICC forecasts that grid investment is expected to maintain high single-digit growth in the coming years, with strong overseas demand for Chinese power equipment [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Weisheng Holdings (03393) anticipates over 500 million yuan in orders from national tenders, with additional contracts worth approximately 150 million yuan from provincial grid companies [2] - Weisheng's collaboration with Siemens and DayOne in Singapore has resulted in a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a 110.9% year-on-year rise in Q2 2025 [2] - Chongqing Machinery and Electric (02722) is positioned to benefit from the AIDC's requirements for stable power output and durability in diesel generators, enhancing its market value [2] - Chongqing Machinery and Electric holds a 50% stake in Chongqing Cummins, which is the only large engine production base for Cummins in China, currently experiencing strong market demand [2] - Chongqing Hitachi Energy is one of the largest transformer manufacturing bases globally and the largest for Hitachi Energy in China, focusing on ultra-high voltage transformers [2]

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the revenue of the power equipment sector in Q3 2025 increased by 11.9% year-on-year, continuing a trend of steady growth across the sector [1] - There is a divergence in performance among different segments, with secondary equipment showing the highest growth at 16.2%, followed by primary equipment at 13.8%, digital grid solutions at 9.8%, and smart distribution and utilization experiencing a decline of 5.4% [1] Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue growth rates: - Secondary equipment: +16.2% - Primary equipment: +13.8% - Digital grid: +9.8% - Smart distribution: -5.4% [1] Investment Outlook - National grid project investment from January to September 2025 reached 437.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.9% - It is expected that the annual average growth of grid investment will maintain a high single-digit percentage in the coming years [1] Segment Analysis - Primary Equipment: - Strong bidding for ultra-high voltage equipment in the main grid - Notable growth in exports of transformers and switches overseas - Weakness in new energy installations outside the grid in Q3 has slightly pressured deliveries [1] - Secondary Equipment: - Continued stable performance in Q3 - Growth in demand for main grid protection and expansion into new markets such as energy storage and computing centers [1] - Smart Distribution: - Performance under pressure due to challenges in domestic meter deliveries - Anticipation of improved volume and pricing following the initiation of new meter tenders [1] Digital Grid Development - Performance showed a recovery quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from the revival of digital tenders by the State Grid - Companies have ample orders on hand, and there is optimism for accelerated deliveries in Q4, which may enhance business structure [2] Recommended Stocks - High Voltage: - Pinggao Electric (600312.SH), Guodian NARI (600406.SH), China XD Electric (601179.SH), XJ Electric (000400.SZ) [2] - Power Equipment Exports: - Sifang Electric (002028.SZ), Huaming Equipment (002270.SZ), Weisheng Holdings (03393), Samsung Medical (601567.SH), Jinpan Technology (688676.SH), Mingyang Electric (300291.SZ), Haixing Electric (603556.SH), Huatong Cable (605196.SH), Jincheng Electric (002533.SZ), TBEA (600089.SH) [2] - Distribution Network & Smart Grid: - Sifang Co., Ltd. (601126.SH), Guoneng Rixin (301162.SZ), Weisheng Information (688100.SH), Longxin Group (300682.SZ), State Grid Information and Communication (600131.SH) [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **electric power industry** and **electric equipment sector** in both domestic (China) and international markets, particularly the **North American power system** [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments North American Power System Challenges - **Electricity Demand Growth**: The U.S. electricity demand growth has rebounded to **3%**, expected to continue until **2030**. Factors include AI infrastructure, cryptocurrency mining, and re-industrialization [2][5]. - **Supply-Side Issues**: A significant wave of power plant retirements is anticipated, with over **100 GW** expected to retire by **2034**, primarily coal-fired plants [2][3]. - **Reliability Concerns**: New renewable energy projects, mainly solar and storage, are less reliable under extreme weather conditions, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [2][4]. - **Transmission Line Construction**: The long construction cycle (4-10 years) for transmission lines reveals system vulnerabilities, with an estimated average load gap of **30 GW** from **2025-2030** [2][4]. Measures Taken by U.S. Government and Enterprises - **Delaying Retirements**: The U.S. government is delaying the retirement of coal plants and promoting more reliable energy sources like gas and SOFC [3][4]. - **Infrastructure Projects**: Numerous transmission and transformation projects have been approved, but many remain in planning due to land and funding issues [4]. Investment Outlook - **Domestic Investment**: China is expected to invest over **4 trillion RMB** in the power grid during the **14th Five-Year Plan**, significantly higher than the previous plan [5]. - **International Market**: The U.S. market is experiencing a tight supply-demand relationship, leading to increased orders for transformers and other equipment [5][8]. Future Investment Trends - **Focus on Smart Distribution**: Future investments will prioritize the smart transformation of distribution networks, driven by the rise of electric vehicles and distributed energy [6][7]. - **Improving Industry Fundamentals**: Changes in bidding standards and pricing are expected to enhance product quality and improve order and profit outlooks for companies [6][7]. Electric Equipment Export Opportunities - **Strong Global Demand**: The global demand for electric equipment is robust, with Chinese companies benefiting from cost advantages and quick service response [8][9]. - **Export Growth**: From January to September **2025**, China's electric equipment exports grew by **24%**, with transformers up **42%** [8][9]. Performance of Major Overseas Manufacturers - **Strong Earnings**: Major overseas manufacturers like Hitachi Energy and GE have reported significant revenue growth, with expectations for stable long-term growth in demand [11][12]. - **Order Backlogs**: The backlog of orders remains high, indicating strong future demand, particularly in North America [11][12]. Recommendations for A-Share Market - **Key Companies**: Recommendations include companies like **Siyuan Electric** and **Samsung**, which are expected to perform well due to their current low valuations and potential for earnings growth [19]. Other Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The records highlight the competitive pressure from Chinese companies in the electric meter market, with foreign firms losing market share [17]. - **Valuation Trends**: High valuations for foreign stocks reflect optimism about long-term demand and performance [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, focusing on the electric power industry and its dynamics in both domestic and international contexts.

Performance - The company reported a revenue of 17.004 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.54% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 939 million yuan, an increase of 19.29% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 923 million yuan, up 18.17% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 340 million yuan, which is a 4.12% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 22.14%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 2025 was 23.19%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [1] Overseas Business - The company has secured contracts for data center transformer equipment in international markets, indicating a focus on enhancing quality and efficiency [1] - The company is restructuring its international business management system and establishing international marketing centers to improve control over overseas factories [1] - The company has accelerated the export of individual equipment, winning significant contracts such as the supply of transformers for GE and the first export of high-voltage direct current converter switchgear [1] Domestic Business - The company has efficiently coordinated production operations, supporting the commissioning and power transmission of key national projects such as the ±800 kV UHVDC projects [2] Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.697 billion yuan, 1.996 billion yuan, and 2.359 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 30, 26, and 22 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]