Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the sugar price trend include the import rhythm, low domestic sugar inventory, typhoon damage, weakening Brazilian support, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand [2][3]. - The near - term trading logic of SR2511 is mainly based on the import sugar price, and the pressure from the start of sugar beet production in the north has narrowed the 11 - 01 contract spread [6]. - The long - term trading logic of SR2601 is affected by the supply pressure of imported sugar and syrup premix, the expected difference in the new season's production, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand [8]. - The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weakening but may strengthen in the future. The K - line price is in a short - position arrangement, and the position has decreased approaching the National Day holiday [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The market is mainly trading the import rhythm, and attention should be paid to the change in out - of - quota import profit and the import of syrup and premix [2]. - Low domestic sugar inventory supports the price, but the sales volume in August was lower than expected, and the final inventory may not support the price effectively [2]. - Typhoon "Huajiaisha" damaged the sugarcane, but the impact is less than that of "Mojie" last year, and the final loss may be limited [2]. - The bullish support from Brazil is weakening, and the 26/27 season is expected to have a recovery increase in production [3]. - The expected increase in production in India and Thailand suppresses the upper limit of the sugar price, and India may export 150 - 200 tons in the new year [3]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weakening but may strengthen in the future. The K - line price is in a short - position arrangement, and the position has decreased approaching the National Day holiday [10]. - The basis strategy is to sell spot and buy 2511 futures to lock in the basis return profit; the spread strategy has no recommendation [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5200 - 5700, with a current volatility of 6.19% and a historical percentile of 2.2% in 3 years [12]. - Different hedging strategies are recommended for different scenarios such as high inventory and low inventory [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The unilateral long position of SR2511 has been stopped out; selling spot and buying SR2511 has been entered; the long - short spread of SR2511 and SR2601 has left the market [15]. Typhoon "Huajiaisha" affected the sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi; the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased; Brazilian sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased compared with the same period last year [16]. - **Negative Information**: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started production, and the production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be flat or slightly increase; the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the first half of September in central and southern Brazil are expected to increase; the sugar production in the 2026/27 season in central and southern Brazil is expected to increase by 5.7% [17]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The weekly number of sugar ships waiting to be transported and the number of ships in Brazilian ports (Thursday, Beijing time) [18]. - Brazilian sugar export data for September (Tuesday, Beijing time) [21]. - The sales data and industrial inventory data of domestic sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan in September at the beginning of October [21]. - The crushing data in the first ten days of September in central and southern Brazil [21]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The futures price rebounded from 5424 points and regained the 5500 support level. The position of the main contract SR2601 decreased after seasonal growth. The short - hedging position decreased, and foreign capital had more short positions. The 5500 level is a key position [22]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of the 11th contract may further expand. The market shows a back structure, and the 11 - 01 spread will rise and then fall [24]. - **Foreign Market**: The sugar price rebounded due to the typhoon, but the impact is limited. The overseas raw sugar price may fall to 15 cents, and the position has reached a record high, with an increase in non - commercial short positions [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The raw sugar futures show a near - strong and far - weak back structure, which is unfavorable for sugar mills to hedge, but they still need to find appropriate opportunities [28]. - **Internal and External Spread Tracking**: The internal and external prices are weak. The out - of - quota import window on the disk is sometimes open and sometimes closed, and the spot import window is open. The Zhengzhou sugar price may be under pressure [31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - China is a net importer of sugar and has a quota system. The out - of - quota import profit of Brazilian sugar has been shrinking, and the import window has been closed. The import of syrup and premix from other Asian countries has increased, and the data in August shows an upward trend in Thai premix [33]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the 24/25 season, the estimated carry - over inventory is 66.97 tons, the estimated cumulative import is 470 tons, and the estimated import of syrup and premix is 110 tons [36]. - For the 25/26 season, the estimated domestic sugar production is 1120 tons, and other data are estimated based on the 24/25 season [36].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents a mixed outlook for the sugar market. While there are some bullish factors such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, there are also bearish factors including expected global sugar supply surplus, downward - trending technical indicators, and import pressure. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have a short - term volatile rebound due to factors like pre - holiday profit - taking by short - sellers and potential damage to sugarcane crops from a typhoon [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the given content. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, while ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. In August 2025, China produced 11.1621 billion tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, sold 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August 2025, a 60,000 - ton year - on - year increase, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes in July, a 68,500 - ton year - on - year decrease. Overall, this is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5890, with a basis of 393 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Before the National Day holiday, after consecutive days of decline in Zhengzhou sugar, some short - sellers took profits and exited. Typhoon "Koinu" affected the sugarcane - growing areas in southern Guangxi, potentially causing yield reduction. The main 01 contract shows a short - term volatile rebound [5]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the given content. 3.4基本面数据 - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus, and StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: In 2025, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and imports are 5 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and 50% tariff payment varies. For example, in September 2025, with an average ICE raw sugar price of about 15.79 cents per pound from Brazil, the cost was 5454 yuan per ton [38]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, with cumulative sales of 10 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 423 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures. As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it. The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear. International raw sugar is currently fluctuating around 16.5 cents. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching its end, and sugar imports have increased significantly. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ISO forecasts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a sharp reduction from the previous prediction. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, down 3.1% from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, up 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year. Overall, it is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,970, and the basis is 423 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is bullish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: International raw sugar is currently fluctuating around 16.5 cents. The domestic consumption peak season is about to end, and sugar imports have increased significantly. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit; Czarnikow predicts a 7.5 - million - ton surplus; Dataro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; StoneX predicts a 3.04 - million - ton surplus after a downward adjustment; Green Pool estimates a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; and the USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a 11.397 - million - ton surplus [4][8]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data show that as of the end of August, the cumulative production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. - **Sugar Price and Market Conditions**: The international raw sugar price is currently around 16.5 cents. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 6,000. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main sugar futures contract 01 rebounded briefly this week. With the approaching end of the consumption peak season and average market sales, cheap imported sugar is impacting prices, making it difficult for futures to rise in the short term. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. - International raw sugar is oscillating around 16 cents, and the domestic and international trends are converging. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support around the 5500 mark. After continuous declines, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500 - 5600. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negatives include increased global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, and intensified import impact. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The main sugar futures contract 01 rebounded briefly this week. The consumption peak season is approaching its end, market sales are average, and cheap imported sugar is impacting prices, making short - term futures price increases difficult. The ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23.1 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to be 4060 tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 954.98 tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 74 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 32 tons, and imported 15.98 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 6.85 tons. [5] 3.2 Daily Tips - International raw sugar is oscillating around 16 cents, and the domestic and international trends are converging. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support around the 5500 mark. After continuous declines, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500 - 5600. [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. - Negative factors: Increased global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, and intensified import impact. [7] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 750 tons, Dataro predicts a surplus of 153 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 304 tons, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 1.991 billion tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, with a surplus of 1139.7 tons. - In terms of domestic data, as of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sales were 954.98 tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 74 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 32 tons, and imported 15.98 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 6.85 tons. [5][9] 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 447 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons, also bullish. However, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish. The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - International raw sugar has fallen below the 16 - cent mark, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has weakened accordingly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the amount of low - price imported sugar in the market has increased significantly, and the spot price has declined. The futures main contract 01 has fallen to the 5500 mark and is expected to rebound with short - term support [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price below 16 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. Czarnikow predicts a 7.5 - million - ton surplus, Dataro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, StoneX predicts a 3.04 - million - ton surplus after a 700,000 - ton downward adjustment, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a 13.97 - million - ton surplus [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - The 25/26 supply - demand situation forecasts from different institutions: ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit with 180.6 million tons of production and 180.8 million tons of consumption; Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus; StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [34]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows that in the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is 12.3 million hectares, beet is 2.1 million hectares, sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined and duty - paid cost was 5600 - 5650 yuan per ton [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。Conab： 巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7月底，24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进口食 糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。中性。 2、基差：柳州现货5990，基差391（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - September 2, 2025 - Report Source: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bearish impact on the global supply - demand fundamentals has weakened as Brazil's sugar production is adjusted downward. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 is currently close to the price of imported sugar after out - of - quota tariffs. Unless the price of foreign sugar drops below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou Sugar 01. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 5580 - 5640 during the day [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the available report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6000, and the basis for the 01 contract is 391, indicating a premium over futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [7]. - **Expectations**: With the downward adjustment of Brazil's production, the bearish impact on the global supply - demand fundamentals has weakened. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 is close to the price of imported sugar after out - of - quota tariffs. Unless the foreign sugar price drops below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 5580 - 5640 during the day [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No content related to today's focus is provided in the available report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons, StoneX forecasts a reduced surplus of 3.04 million tons, and Green Pool estimates a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons. USDA predicts a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons [10]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand**: In the 24/25 season, as of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. - **Import Costs**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariffs has changed over time. For example, in July 2024, the ICE raw sugar average price was 18.5 - 20.7 cents/pound, and the refined and taxed cost was 6330 - 6520 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of white sugar 01 oscillates and declines. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out - quota imported sugar. In the short term, Zhengzhou white sugar may oscillate around 5600. Unless the price of foreign sugar falls below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou white sugar [5][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6010, with a basis of 408 (for contract 01), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of white sugar 01 oscillates and declines. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out - quota imported sugar. In the short term, Zhengzhou white sugar may oscillate around 5600. Unless the price of foreign sugar falls below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou white sugar [5][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. Green Pool estimates a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA estimates a surplus of 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 7.8 million tons, and Datagro estimates a surplus of 2.58 million tons [9][35]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply and demand of white sugar in the domestic market has a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing. The average spot sales price of domestic sugar is close to 6000. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - quota import tariff of raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, and the adjusted tariff is slightly lower than the out - quota import tariff of raw sugar. Coca - Cola's formula modification is long - term bullish for white sugar [9]. - **Import Situation**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4][9]. 3.5 Position Data The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of white sugar 01 is expected to oscillate and decline. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out-of-quota imported sugar. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and short-term attention should be paid to whether there is support at the 5600 mark [5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that the sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68,500 tons. The situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6020, and the basis for contract 01 is 400, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is a bullish factor [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include the increase in global sugar production and the supply surplus in the new season. The price of foreign sugar is below 17 cents per pound, and the import profit window is open, increasing import pressure [7]. - **Medium-term View**: The domestic sugar spot sales average price is close to 6000. The domestic sugar supply and demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the medium- and long-term gap is decreasing. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out-of-quota import tariff on raw sugar. In the short term, there are many imports of foreign sugar [9]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA forecasts 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow forecasts 7.8 million tons, and Datagro forecasts 2.58 million tons [9][35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugarcane planting area, yield per unit area, and sugar production in China are expected to remain stable in the 2025/26 season. The import volume is expected to be 5 million tons, and the consumption volume is expected to be 15.9 million tons. The balance change is expected to be 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market presents a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. The short - term outlook for the sugar main contract 01 is a downward trend under pressure at 5700, with support around 5600. Although there has been a significant increase in imported sugar in recent months, the spot price remains relatively firm [5]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production and a supply surplus in the new year [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information about the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 6030, and the basis for the 01 contract is 398, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The sugar main contract 01 is under short - term pressure at 5700 and is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Although the import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, the current spot price is relatively firm and less affected by the impact of imported sugar. The support level for sugar 01 is around 5600 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information about today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA forecasts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 780,000 tons, and Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258,000 tons [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons [37]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].