Core Insights - The household appliance industry experienced a decline of 1.2% in the Shenwan household appliance index from the beginning of 2025 until June 29, ranking 26th among Shenwan industries [4][13] - The overall performance of the household appliance industry in 2024 and Q1 2025 was good, but the index showed weakness compared to the strong performance in 2024 [4][6] - Factors contributing to the weak index performance include reduced demand elasticity from national subsidies, uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, low real market demand, and a shift in market style towards new consumption trends [4][6][12] Outlook for H2 2025 - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is expected to stimulate household appliance consumption, which remains a crucial part of domestic demand [6] - China, as the largest global manufacturer and exporter of household appliances, holds significant production capacities, with 81.3% for air conditioners, 57.6% for refrigerators, and 52% for washing machines in 2023 [6] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America may present important opportunities for growth, while global leading companies are expected to enhance industry concentration through their advantages in design, manufacturing, and supply chains [6][8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors that still have demand under normalized national subsidy policies, such as air conditioning and kitchen small appliances [8] - Pay attention to export-oriented companies targeting emerging markets or those with overseas production capabilities to mitigate U.S. exposure [8] - Consider companies that are diversifying into new industries such as electric vehicles and robotics [8] - Look for significantly undervalued high-dividend stocks, as a shift in funding styles or rising risk aversion may create favorable market conditions [8] H1 2025 Review - The household appliance index's performance was weak, with the appliance parts sector leading with a 16.3% increase, while the white goods sector saw a decline of 4.7% [15][19] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the household appliance industry is currently at 14.3X, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, indicating a relatively low valuation level [19][25] - The dividend yield for the household appliance industry stands at 3.7%, ranking 4th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, supported by strong cash flow [25][26] Sales and Production Trends - In the first five months of 2025, air conditioner domestic sales reached 54.236 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, while external sales were 49.25 million units, up 11.4% [31] - Refrigerator domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 14.414 million units, down 1.4% year-on-year, while external sales were 17.362 million units, up 9.2% [36] - Washing machine domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 14.925 million units, up 8.4% year-on-year, with external sales at 15.198 million units, also up 8.5% [41] - Television domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 11.62 million units, a slight increase of 0.2%, while external sales reached 32.35 million units, up 2% [46] Cost and Pricing Pressures - From January to July 2025, LME copper and aluminum prices increased by 4.4% and 7.1%, respectively, indicating ongoing cost pressures for appliance manufacturers [48] - The average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.17, presenting a neutral impact on companies engaged in overseas business [54] - High shipping costs continue to compress profit margins for exports, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff policies contributing to this pressure [58]

韩国产业部副部长：如果实施美国关税，将对本地经济产生重大影响。 ...

法国工业部长：法国和欧盟关于美国关税的目标是缓和紧张局势。 ...

澳洲联储：尽管美国关税的最终范围及其他国家的政策应对尚未确定，金融市场的价格已出现反弹，市 场普遍预期最极端的结果可能会被避免。 ...

根据指数的3个月平均动向等做出的机械性总体评估由截至上月的"止跌"转为"恶化"。此次是 消费税增税及新冠疫情时期重叠的2019年8月至2020年7月以来首次做出"恶化"评估。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 此次是消费税增税及新冠疫情时期重叠的2019年8月至2020年7月以来首次做出"恶化"评估。出口及批发 销售额是主要负面因素。美国关税政策可能导致日本经济下行压力进一步加大…… 7月7日，日本内阁府公布的5月景气动向指数显示，对经济形势的总体评估自2020年7月以来 首次转为"恶化"。从定义上来说，这表明经济处于衰退局面的可能性很高。出口及批发销售 额是主要负面因素。美国特朗普政府的关税政策可能会导致日本经济下行压力进一步加大。 反映当前经济状况的一致指数（2020年=100）为115.9，环比下降0.1个百分点。这是两个 月以来再次下降。在构成该指数的10个项目中，有5个项目是负面因素。 ...

泰国财政部长：正在制定应对美国关税的备选方案。 ...

欧元兑美元日内跌0.46%，现报1.1724。葡萄牙财政部长Joaquim Miranda Sarmento表示，其预计欧盟和 美国将达成协议，关税税率可能在10%以下，进而有助于保持贸易畅通。Sarmento称，有可能达成一项 非常低关税的协议，一项对双方都有利的协议，能够让我们继续开展贸易，并为我们的公民创造更多价 值，期待在周一和周二举行的欧盟财长会议上"了解欧盟委员会与美国政府谈判的最新进展"。 ...

2025年以来，美国关税政策呈现范围广泛、幅度巨大和高度不确定性等重要特征，给全球带来了重大冲 击，如何研判相关冲击、走向是一个重大课题。针对美国关税政策对世界、中国产业链与供应链的影响 以及中方为维护国际经贸秩序所做的努力与取得的成效等，本报记者专访了中国银行原首席研究员宗良 博士。 宗良 博士，中国银行原首席研究员。先后就读于武汉大学、中国人民大学、复旦大学（中美经济学培 训班）、清华大学五道口金融学院。近年主持了国家自然科学基金会、世界黄金协会等多项重大课题。 《金融时报》记者：2025年以来，美国关税政策以范围广泛、幅度巨大且具有极大不确定性的形态出 现，您怎样看待美国关税政策对全球经济金融的影响，比如对全球贸易与资本流动、全球经济增速、国 际经贸规则等方面的影响？ 《金融时报》记者：中国应对美国关税政策所做的努力有哪些？取得的成效如何？ 宗良：一是针对美国关税政策，中国展现出坚定的立场与多维度的应对策略。当美国出台不合理关税政 策、试图通过经济霸凌手段谋取私利时，中国第一时间表明坚决反对的态度，并迅速采取反制措施。 二是加强与其他经济体的沟通与协作。中国推动"一带一路"倡议持续深入发展，加强与共建" ...

印度汽车经销商协会联盟（FADA）：6月份乘用车零售销量同比增长4.84%，对短期前景持谨慎乐观的 态度，考虑到稀土短缺、地缘政治紧张局势及美国关税溢出影响，需保持警惕。 ...

2025年以来，美国关税政策呈现范围广泛、幅度巨大和高度不确定性等重要特征，给全球带来了重大冲 击，如何研判相关冲击、走向是一个重大课题。针对美国关税政策对美国、世界、中国产业链与供应链 的影响以及中方为维护国际经贸秩序所做的努力与取得的成效等，本报记者专访了中国银行原首席研究 员宗良博士。 美国关税政策的特征及对其自身的影响 《金融时报》记者：2025年以来，美国关税政策以范围广泛、幅度巨大且具有极大不确定性的形态出 现，请问如何看待本次美国关税政策的典型特征？ 宗良：本轮美国关税政策展现出以下鲜明的特点： 一是关税覆盖范围广泛、呈现全面扩张态势。自2025年4月5日起，美国实施新关税政策，对几乎所有进 口商品征收10%的基础关税，这一举措打破以往针对特定商品或国家的限制，将征税范围扩大到几乎所 有品类，充分显示美国关税政策全面扩张的特征。同时，从4月9日开始，对美国的主要贸易伙伴的关键 商品普遍加征虽有差异但普遍幅度较高的关税，涉及领域广泛，包括电子、机械、化工、纺织等多个行 业，使得众多国家输美产品面临成本大幅增加的困境，严重冲击全球供应链和贸易秩序。自2025年6月 23日起，美国对多种钢制家用电器加 ...