Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented tariffs on several trade partners, leading to a downward revision of Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates [1] - Japanese automotive companies, including Toyota, are facing significant profit reductions, with a projected combined operating profit decline of approximately 2.67 trillion yen (about 130.2 billion RMB) for the 2025 fiscal year [2] - Subaru anticipates a 52.7% decrease in net profit for the 2025 fiscal year, projecting a drop to 160 billion yen (approximately 7.8 billion RMB) [2] Group 2 - Japanese electronic component manufacturers reported a 24% decrease in net profit, totaling 183.9 billion yen (around 8.9 billion RMB) for the April to June 2025 period [2] - The uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies is causing Japanese companies to reduce export expectations and investment, contributing to a cautious outlook on growth [3] - The Japanese government is seeking to expand exports, including efforts to restore imports of Japanese agricultural products by South Korea [4] Group 3 - Japan's central and local government fiscal deficit for 2025 is estimated at 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 156 billion RMB), which is an improvement from the previous estimate of 4.5 trillion yen [3] - Toyota is advancing technological innovation with the upcoming launch of "Woven City," aimed at testing autonomous driving technologies and fostering collaboration with other industries [4] - The Japanese government is facing internal policy debates on how to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs, control inflation, and manage interest rate adjustments [4]

Economic Performance Overview - Major economies have shown varied performance in Q2, with the U.S. tariff policy impacting trade differently across countries [1][4] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in H1, with Q2 growth at 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong exports and macroeconomic policies [2] - The U.S. GDP increased by 3% on an annualized basis in Q2, recovering from a 0.5% contraction in Q1, influenced by a significant drop in imports and increased consumer spending [2] - The Eurozone's economy grew by only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, the lowest since early 2024, with Germany and Italy experiencing a 0.1% contraction [2] Regional Economic Insights - South Korea's economy rebounded with a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2, supported by increased exports and domestic demand [3] - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.52% year-on-year in H1, with Q2 growth at 7.96%, attributed to accelerated procurement by foreign buyers ahead of potential U.S. tariffs [3] Tariff Policy Implications - Experts warn of the structural changes in supply and demand relationships due to U.S. tariff policies, predicting significant pressure on global economic growth in Q4 and 2024 [4] - Short-term behaviors, such as companies stockpiling goods to avoid tariff impacts, may lead to trade cycle disruptions, which are not sustainable for long-term growth [4] Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised global economic growth forecasts for the next two years to 3% and 3.1%, influenced by factors such as preemptive stockpiling by importers and improved financial conditions [5] - Despite the positive adjustments, the IMF cautions that global economic activities remain distorted due to heightened tariff expectations and geopolitical tensions [5] Cooperation and Trade Framework - The IMF emphasizes the importance of pragmatic cooperation among economies to reduce trade barriers, suggesting that a predictable trade framework could enhance global economic growth [6]

Group 1 - Copper prices have experienced two waves of fluctuations since the end of June, with a peak of 80,990 yuan/ton and a low of 77,700 yuan/ton by mid-July, influenced by LME copper inventory pressures and policy announcements from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which has positively impacted copper prices, indicating potential for further price increases if detailed policies are released [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold three meetings in the second half of the year, with macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, likely to influence copper price expectations [1] Group 2 - CSPT decided not to set a reference standard for copper concentrate processing fees for Q3 2025 due to unsustainable market conditions, while new copper mines are expected to contribute to supply in the second half of the year [2] - The construction of container berths at Ningbo Daxie Port may affect the speed of imported scrap copper arrivals, although an increase in anode plate production is anticipated due to higher procurement by refineries [2] - LME copper inventory has accumulated again, alleviating market concerns, while domestic smelting plants are expected to face a maintenance peak from September to November [2] Group 3 - The U.S. copper tariff policy has led to increased volatility in U.S. copper prices without significantly altering global copper inventory structures [3] - The cable industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with no signs of accelerated production in the copper tube sector, while the automotive market is experiencing a consumption peak [3] - The financial attributes of copper prices are expected to enhance, leading to a return to a fluctuating market pattern [3]

| 涨幅居前的板块 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 机械设备 | 煤炭 | 纺织服饰 | 计算机 | | 3.07% | 1.98% | 1.89% | 1.36% | 1.30% | | 跌幅居前的板块 | | | | | | 矢药生物 | 商贸零售 | 建筑材料 | 社会服务 | 银行 | | -0.65% | -0.23% | -0.23% | -0.18% | -0.14% | 数据来源：Wind，仅展示当日涨跌幅居前的行业 主要因素 盘面概览 | 上证指数 | 0.45% | 沪深300 | 0.24% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 深证指数 | 0.64% | 中证500 | 0.86% | | 创业板指 | 0.66% | 科创50 | 0.58% | 数据来源：Wind Wind数据显示，全市场超3300只个股上涨。 行业表现 面共振推动板块整体上行。机械设备板块方面，全球矿山资本开支呈上行趋势，相关设备出口订单增长，叠加两融余额突破两万亿元，增量资金流入高端 装备领域，促使板块估值上升。煤炭板 ...

盛诺集团(01418)跌超14%，截至发稿，跌14.52%，报0.265港元，成交额127.88万港元。 消息面上，盛诺集团发盈警，集团预期于截至2025年6月30日止6个月取得溢利不低于3000万港元，而截 至2024年6月30日止6个月则取得溢利约7420万港元。主要由于美国关税政策下的全球贸易波动导致收入 减少。该关税不仅严重扰乱中美贸易，亦对全球供应链造成影响，导致生产及物流的不确定性增加及运 营中断。 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The world is evolving towards a diversified structure, with the potential for the RMB to be less pressured if the USD enters a long-term weakening phase [4] - The dominance of the USD is seen as a product of historical circumstances, and its status is being challenged by geopolitical events and changing global dynamics [4][5] - The RMB's exchange rate mechanism should be more flexible and less influenced by external factors, allowing for adjustments based on domestic conditions [5] Group 2: Investment Trends in China - There is a long-term trend of increasing global asset allocation towards Chinese assets, driven by policy shifts that support economic growth and private enterprise [6][7] - The current high proportion of US assets in global allocations does not align with the emerging multipolar world, but international capital is beginning to adjust [7] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting indicated a balanced policy approach, which could stabilize market expectations and support long-term development [8] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting did not explicitly mention interest rate cuts, focusing instead on maintaining liquidity and managing local government debt [9] - The real estate market remains under pressure, and without strong policy intervention, downward pressure may increase [8][9] Group 4: Trade and Tariff Implications - The impact of US tariffs is diminishing, with recent agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU potentially leading to reduced trade costs and lower market uncertainty [15] - The evolving tariff agreements may serve as a model for other countries, suggesting a trend towards more flexible trade negotiations [15] Group 5: Investment in Gold - Caution is advised regarding excessive investment in gold as a safe-haven asset, as current valuations are high and could lead to risks [12][13] - Geopolitical tensions may support gold prices, but potential ceasefires could create downward pressure [13]

外资机构如何看待当前世界格局？又将如何影响对中国资产的配置？美国关税政策将如何影 响全球经济？为回答这些问题，中国基金报记者独家专访了贝莱德首席中国经济学家宋宇。 贝莱德是全球规模最大的资产管理集团之一，截至 2025 年二季度末，贝莱德在全球管理的 总资产管理规模达12.5万亿美元。 【导读】贝莱德首席中国经济学家宋宇：多元化格局下，全球提升中国资产配置将是长期趋 势 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 世界正向多元化格局演变 人民币汇率形成机制"以我为主" 宋宇认为，若美元进入长期走弱通道，人民币压力将显著减轻。他建议，国家在制定"十五 五"计划时，应从更深层次去考虑制度安排，使汇率形成机制"以我为主"。 宋宇解释说，美元走势存在诸多不确定性。例如，俄乌冲突爆发后，俄罗斯海外资产被美欧 冻结，这无异于"变相违约"。美国的长期国家信用被损害，全球投资者持有美债的信心被削 弱，美元地位动摇。 他指出，美元的全球主导地位是特殊历史时期的"特殊产物"——二战结束后美国依托其远超 其他国家的实力，在全球政治、军事、金融体系构建霸权。美元地位空前显著。宋宇说："不 过，特朗普政府不愿再承担全球霸权的成本。他缩减海外驻军开支，各种 ...

穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，美国关税税率大幅升高将加深对美国经济的伤害。经济学 界普遍认为，大规模加征关税是一个坏主意。 韩礼士基金会贸易政策负责人德博拉·埃尔姆斯表示，美国"关税墙"非常高，美国企业和消费者的生 产、生活成本将会显著升高，消费者会以减少购买作为应对。 新华社纽约8月2日电综述｜朝着"丛林法则"大幅倒退——美关税及贸易政策招致广泛批评 新华社记者刘亚南 美国总统特朗普日前公布69个贸易伙伴输美商品适用的关税税率，上调加拿大、巴西输美产品以及铜产 品关税。同时，特朗普政府还以高关税威胁施压贸易伙伴与美达成贸易协议。这些做法在美国国内及国 际上引发反对、质疑和批评。 美国全国对外贸易理事会主席杰克·科尔文表示，美国大幅提高关税，其代价是贸易伙伴对美国的信任 受到侵蚀。高关税的制度化及持续的不确定性将削弱美国企业在全球的竞争力，美国消费者处境会更 糟，同时美国与地缘政治盟友和贸易伙伴的关系也会受到伤害。 美国智库凯托学会专家斯科特·林西科姆说，美国关税税率已处于一个多世纪以来未曾有过的高位，美 国企业和消费者将为此承担数千亿美元税费。林西科姆表示，美国关税体系已变成难以理解的复杂迷 宫， ...

这番言论暴露了他对国际格局的狭隘认知，也折射出部分乌克兰精英对西方的盲目崇拜。 让他没想到的是，美国财长贝森特的表态也直接打脸了这种论调，他痛快承认，美国在阻止中国购买俄 罗斯石油的问题上"筹码不够看"。 当中美谈判桌上的火药味还未散尽，乌克兰高层突然跳出来对中国指手画脚，可美国财长却当场拆台， 承认手里根本没筹码逼中国低头。紧接着，特朗普公布了全球关税，准备跟中国硬碰硬了？ 随着中美会谈结束，一系列连锁效应也开始出现。 观察者网援引外媒消息称，在中美贸易会谈后抛出一番争议言论，声称中国必须在美西方市场和俄罗斯 能源之间"二选一"，甚至断言选择俄罗斯就意味着放弃全球市场。 贝森特之所以痛快承认筹码不足，是因为四月中美"125%关税对轰"已经验证了硬脱钩的结局——最终 以美国率先让步收场。 而且，中方也在会谈中明确表示，能源进口选择基于国家主权决策。 其实，细究波多里亚克的逻辑，会发现这是典型的"小国代理人"思维。 经历过苏联解体的他，坚信只要跪舔西方就能复制日韩的"经济奇迹"，这种单一视角使他无法理解中国 为何坚持与美博弈，甚至将西方等同于"全球市场"。 但现实数据彻底否定了这种幻想，他选择性忽视了中国14亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Adidas reported a challenging outlook in its Q2 2025 financial results, primarily impacted by U.S. tariff policies, which are expected to increase costs by approximately €200 million in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adidas achieved Q2 revenue of €5.95 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points [1] - The revenue growth was largely attributed to reduced product discounts, lower shipping costs, and a strategic move to ship a significant amount of goods to the U.S. before the tariffs took effect [1] - As of the end of June, Adidas's inventory surged by 16%, reaching €5.26 billion [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. has established new trade agreements with Vietnam and Indonesia, imposing tariffs of 20% and 19% on imports from these countries, which are key manufacturing locations for Adidas [1] - Adidas CEO Bjorn Gulden expressed concerns that these tariffs could lead to broader inflation, making it difficult to predict the subsequent impact on consumer demand [1] - Other major sports brands, including Nike and Puma, have also reported significant impacts from U.S. tariff policies, with Nike experiencing an 86% year-on-year drop in net profit [2] - Nike executives indicated that U.S. tariffs could increase their costs by approximately $1 billion, highlighting that the sports consumer goods sector may be one of the most affected areas by these policies [2]