特朗普称美联储主席候选人名单缩小至三人 据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普表示，目前美联储主席候选人的名单已缩小至三人。其中包括白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什 以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。 特朗普还表示，他也会考虑美国财政部长贝森特。不过，贝森特表示无意担任这一职位。 数月来，特朗普持续要求美联储降息，由于美联储迟迟不愿降息，特朗普多次炮轰美联储现任主席鲍威尔，一度威胁要解除鲍威尔的职务。 美国失业率创近4年来新高 美联储主席候选人名单已缩小至三人。 美国市场预测平台"卡尔希"网站预测，目前美联储9月降息至少25个基点的可能性为99%。 美国劳工部5日公布的数据显示，8月，美国失业率上升至4.3%，创近4年来新高。 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议。就业数据恶化强化 了市场对美联储降息的预期，分析人士预计美联储或于9月开启新一轮降息。 美国劳工部数据显示，8月，美国失业率较上月上升0.1个百分点至4.3%，创近4年来新高；此外，美国自动数据处理公司4日公布的数据显示，美国8月私营 部门就业人数增加5.4万人，大幅低于市场预期的6.8万人，也显著低于7月修正后的10. ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has significantly lowered its financial forecasts for fiscal year 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a sharp decline in its stock price and multiple investment banks adjusting their target prices downward [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, Lululemon reported revenue of $2.525 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.5%, while net profit decreased by 5% to $371 million [4]. - The company now expects annual net revenue to be between $10.85 billion and $11 billion, down from previous estimates of $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion, and below market expectations of $11.2 billion [3][4]. - Earnings per share are projected to be between $12.77 and $12.97, significantly lower than the analyst expectation of $14.40 [3][4]. Impact of Tariffs - The increase in U.S. import tariffs and the cancellation of the "de minimis" exemption are expected to reduce Lululemon's gross profit by approximately $240 million [4]. - The U.S. government announced on July 30 that it would suspend the tax exemption for imports valued at $800 or less, affecting many of Lululemon's online orders shipped from Canada [4]. Market Conditions - Lululemon's comparable store sales in the Americas fell by 4% in the second quarter, attributed to weak demand in the North American market and increased competition from younger brands like Alo Yoga and Vuori [4][5]. - The overall performance of the athletic apparel market is under pressure, with Lululemon no longer seen as a market challenger but rather as a target for competitors [5]. Broader Industry Context - Other major brands, such as Adidas and Nike, are also facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs, with Adidas reporting significant losses and Nike planning layoffs amid declining revenues [5][6].

Core Points - Japan's manufacturing sector has experienced a significant decline in profits due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with overall regular profits dropping by 11.5% year-on-year for two consecutive quarters [1][4][7] - The non-manufacturing sector, particularly in tourism and services, has shown resilience with a profit increase of 6.6% compared to the previous year [3][4] Manufacturing Sector Impact - The manufacturing sector's regular profits fell sharply, particularly in the transportation machinery sector, which includes the automotive industry, with a decline of 29.7% [4][7] - Other affected industries include steel, which saw a profit drop of 48.2%, and metal products, which experienced a 36.6% decrease [4][7] - The overall regular profit for the manufacturing sector was recorded at 35.8338 trillion yen, marking a historical high for the quarter, but the decline in specific sectors overshadowed this achievement [3][4] Tariff Effects - U.S. tariffs imposed on imported automobiles and key components have significantly impacted Japanese exports, with tariffs on passenger cars rising from 2.5% to 27.5% [7][9] - The steel industry faced additional challenges as U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum products increased from 25% to 50%, leading to losses in the Japanese steel sector [7][8] - In July, Japan's exports to the U.S. fell by 10.1% year-on-year, with automotive exports specifically declining by 28.4% [8][9] Company-Specific Impacts - Major Japanese automakers reported substantial profit losses due to U.S. tariffs, with Honda's net profit plummeting by 50.2% in the latest quarter [11] - Toyota estimated a loss of 450 billion yen in operating profit due to tariffs, with an expected total loss of 1.4 trillion yen for the fiscal year [11] - Other automakers, including Mazda, Nissan, Subaru, and Mitsubishi, also reported significant losses, prompting them to revise their profit forecasts downward [11]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple major German economic research institutions have released autumn forecast reports indicating that Germany's economic growth will only be 0.1% to 0.2% in 2025, which is lower than the summer forecast due to factors such as U.S. tariff policies [1] Economic Performance - The German economy remains sluggish, characterized by insufficient demand in manufacturing and services, ongoing weakness in the construction sector, and a slow recovery in personal consumption [1] Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The ongoing U.S. tariff policies continue to impact German exports significantly, exacerbating the downward pressure on the German economy [1] - Although the EU and the U.S. have reached a new agreement regarding tariff disputes, the vague content of the agreement and the largely unchanged tax rates mean that the adverse effects on the German economy are unlikely to be alleviated [1]

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil is considering selling its chemical plants in Europe due to multiple pressures including U.S. tariff policies, increased competition from low-cost imports in Asia, and the lingering effects of the 2022 energy crisis on the European chemical industry [1] Group 1: Company Actions - ExxonMobil has engaged in preliminary discussions with advisors regarding the potential sale of its chemical assets in Scotland and Belgium, with a possible transaction value of up to $1 billion [1] - The company has also considered the option of directly closing these plants, although it retains the choice to keep the assets [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The European chemical industry is facing new challenges such as disrupted global supply chains due to U.S. tariffs, delayed orders, and intensified market competition from low-cost Asian imports, which threaten the industry's recovery [1] - Other chemical giants, including LyondellBasell and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, are also downsizing their European operations, indicating a broader trend in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core issue of the US-Japan trade agreement revolves around a 15% tariff, with Japan interpreting it as an increase for products currently under 15%, while the US views it as applicable to all products [3] - Japan has committed to invest $550 billion, with 90% of the profits going to the US, but there is a disagreement over the control of this investment, as Japan wants to maintain autonomy while the US demands full access to both principal and profits [3] - The cancellation of the planned visit by Japan's economic minister indicates significant divisions between the US and Japan regarding the tariff negotiations [4] Group 2 - The ongoing pressure from the US on Japan and the EU suggests a potential shift in strategy, as both regions begin to resist excessive demands, although the effectiveness of this resistance remains uncertain [5] - The situation highlights a missed opportunity for Japan and the EU to unite against US tariffs alongside China, which has successfully leveraged its rare earth supply to gain leverage over the US [5]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the stock market due to the release of major employment reports, including Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and private-sector payrolls from ADP [1][2] - Weekly Jobless Claims have shown consistency, currently around 230K, with longer-term claims remaining above 1.94 million for 12 consecutive weeks [3] - The Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show modest job growth of +75K new jobs, which is similar to the previous month's report [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in response to lower job numbers, indicating that even a surprise increase in job growth would not alter their plans [6] - The S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports for August are anticipated, with S&P expected to remain at 53.3 and ISM expected to rise to 48.5% [7] - Pre-market futures are declining, with major indexes falling below levels from five workdays ago, and bond yields have surged, indicating market volatility [8]

Core Points - Suntory Holdings Group announced the resignation of its Chairman and CEO, Niinami Takeshi, due to his involvement in a police investigation related to suspected illegal substances [1][3] - The investigation centers around a supplement containing THC (tetrahydrocannabinol), which is illegal in Japan, and was reportedly gifted to Niinami by a friend from the U.S. [3][4] - Suntory stated that Niinami's actions indicated a lack of understanding regarding the legality of the supplement, leading to his inability to continue in a key representative role [3] Company Overview - Suntory Holdings was established in 1899 in Osaka, Japan, and has grown into a global food and beverage conglomerate with over 270 subsidiaries and more than 40,000 employees worldwide [4] - The company offers a diverse range of products, including alcoholic beverages, non-alcoholic drinks, health foods, and operates in various sectors such as dining and floral businesses [4] - Niinami Takeshi had a significant background in corporate leadership, previously serving as Chairman of Lawson and holding positions at Mitsubishi Corporation before joining Suntory in 2014 [6] Legal Context - Japan's laws regarding cannabis and its psychoactive components, including THC, are strict, with severe penalties for possession, sale, or importation [4] - The revised Cannabis Control Law and Narcotics Control Law, effective December 2024, explicitly classify THC as a narcotic, highlighting the legal risks associated with such substances in Japan [4] Industry Impact - Niinami's resignation may have implications for Suntory's corporate governance and public perception, given his influential role in Japan's economic circles, including as the head of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives [6] - The incident raises concerns about compliance and risk management within the company, particularly in relation to product sourcing and employee conduct [3][4]

Group 1 - The Japanese ruling coalition, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), suffered a significant defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, failing to secure a majority for the first time since its establishment in 1955 [4] - The coalition needed to win at least 50 out of 125 contested seats but only managed to secure 47, leading to a political crisis and calls for resignations from key party leaders [3][4] - The LDP has formed a "Senate Election Summary Committee" to analyze the reasons for the electoral failure, citing unattractive inflation countermeasures and previous political scandals as contributing factors [4] Group 2 - Japan's economy is facing severe challenges, with the S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 49.7 in August, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] - The U.S. tariff policy remains a significant variable affecting Japanese exports, with a projected loss of 2.67 trillion yen in operating profits for major automakers like Toyota and Honda due to a 15% tariff on exports [5] - Despite the political turmoil, recent polls indicate that Prime Minister Kishida's approval rating has increased to 42%, up 10 percentage points since July, suggesting some public support remains [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. government is exploring alternative tariff methods in response to potential legal challenges against Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" under the IEEPA [1][2][3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent believes the Supreme Court will support the use of IEEPA for imposing tariffs, but acknowledges that other legal frameworks exist, albeit with less efficiency and power [4][5] - The recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals has weakened the Trump administration's ability to use tariffs as a key economic policy tool, allowing tariffs to remain in place until October 14 for potential Supreme Court appeal [1][3] Group 2 - Experts suggest that if the Trump administration loses the case, it can still utilize other domestic laws such as Sections 301, 232, 122, and 338 for imposing tariffs [2][5][7] - Section 232 investigations have already been initiated on 11 categories of products, including steel, aluminum, and semiconductors, indicating a broad scope for potential tariffs [6] - Section 122 allows for tariffs up to 15% to address balance of payments issues, but these tariffs are limited to 150 days unless extended by Congress [7] Group 3 - The international market response has been muted, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainty surrounding the legal and policy landscape of tariffs [8] - The potential adverse ruling from the Supreme Court could significantly impact companies that have adjusted their supply chains and pricing strategies based on current tariffs [8] - European leaders express frustration over the U.S. trade approach, emphasizing the need for stronger trade partnerships globally to enhance predictability and reduce strategic dependencies [9]