【罗素投资：杰克逊霍尔会议结果或异于市场预期，9月降息非确定】8月19日消息，罗素投资公司全球首 席投资策略师艾特尔曼在报告中称，即将举行的杰克逊霍尔会议结果可能和市场预期不同。艾特尔曼表 示，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话可能没市场预期那么鸽派。该机构认为，美联储9月降息是"可 能的"，而非"确定的"，降息幅度为25个基点，并非50个基点。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和训猎报 08.19 15:03:15 周二 罗素投资公司:杰克逊霍尔会议或异 于预期,9月降息25基点 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 扫码查看原文 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【罗素投资:杰克逊霍尔会议结果或异于市场预 期,9月降息非确定】8月19日消息,罗素投资公司 全球首席投资策略师艾特尔曼在报告中称,即将举 行的杰克逊霍尔会议结果可能和市场预期不同。艾 特尔曼表示,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲 话可能没市场预期那么鸽派。该机构认为,美联储9 月降息是"可能的",而非"确定的",降息幅度 为25个基点，并非50个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation rebound, with a focus on short-term trading strategies until a clear breakout occurs [4][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a wide range of fluctuations, opening lower and then rising, with a minimum of 3323 and a maximum of 3358, before settling around 3326 [3]. - The current trend is identified as a bullish one, but the strength of the upward movement is under pressure due to a stronger dollar [4]. - The key resistance level for gold is set at 3360; if this level is broken, further upward movement is anticipated [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver showed limited upward momentum, peaking at 38.2 before retreating, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trend above the support level of 37.5 [5][6]. - The target for silver is set at 38.5 and potentially 39 if upward momentum is strong enough [5]. Domestic Gold and Silver Contracts - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets of 785 and 790 depending on market strength [5]. - The domestic silver contract (沪银) is also projected to remain bullish as long as it stays above the support level of 9200, with potential targets of 9400 and 9550 [6]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil rebounded from a support level of 62, with a current price around 63.2, indicating a low-level oscillation [6]. - The focus is on whether the 62 support level holds; if it breaks, further declines may occur, potentially reaching 58 [6]. Fuel Oil Market Analysis - Domestic fuel oil is currently weak but is expected to hold above 2800, with potential for upward movement if a rebound occurs [7].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategy team recommends investors to go long on U.S. short-term government bonds due to the market pricing in an 84% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] Group 1 - The U.S. interest rates remain stable, with recent inflation data not causing significant volatility [1] - The baseline scenario for a September rate cut remains solid, but further evidence of a weak labor market or clear policy signals from the Federal Reserve are needed to push the market towards pricing in a faster rate cut [1] - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the money market currently prices in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September with an 84% probability [1]

所有人的目光都正转向美联储主席鲍威尔，他定于本周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行会议上发表 备受期待的演讲。 这一央行年度盛会以往曾是政策制定者预告未来利率动向的机会。去年，鲍威尔就曾暗示将转向降息， 称"政策调整的时机已到"，并且"他越来越相信通胀正处于回到2%的可持续路径上"。 华尔街普遍预计美联储将在9月恢复降息，此前由于美国总统特朗普的关税影响波及整个经济，美联储 已数月按兵不动。与此同时，特朗普和白宫也向美联储施加了巨大的宽松压力，且一位更为鸽派的理事 也获得了任命。 但鲍威尔在今年的杰克逊霍尔央行会议上可能不会给出重大的暗示。 首先，一些分析师认为9月降息并非板上钉钉，因为通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，并且随着关税给物价 带来上行压力，通胀正在走高。 与此同时，经济学家们正在争论就业数据的恶化是由于工人需求疲软还是供应不足。如果问题在于供 应，那么降息将加剧通胀。 牛津经济研究院副首席美国经济学家Michael Pearce在上周五的一份报告中写道，"关税的影响正在不均 衡地显现，并将在未来几个月继续推高通胀，对于政策制定者来说，要从更持久的通胀压力中厘清一次 性的关税影响将是困难的。" 目前，他认 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced a rebound but ultimately fell due to reduced risk appetite following comments from Putin about potential new arms agreements with the U.S. and a significant increase in the U.S. July PPI, which rose by 0.9%, the largest increase in three years, suggesting a potential rise in inflation in the coming months and diminishing expectations for a substantial rate cut in September [1][5]. Group 1 - Gold prices opened at $3356.68 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3374.58, and then declined to a low of $3329.84, closing at $3335.26, marking a daily drop of $21.42 or 0.64% [3]. - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, recovering losses from earlier in the week, which may limit gold's upward momentum unless it breaks through the 200-day and 200-week moving averages [3][5]. - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including retail sales and industrial production, is expected to be favorable for gold prices, but a return to bullish sentiment will depend on gold reclaiming levels above the mid-band [5][6]. Group 2 - Despite previous expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, recent comments from Fed officials have cast doubt on the likelihood of a large cut in September, with Daly and Musalem suggesting that such a move may not align with current economic conditions [5][6]. - The U.S. Treasury's total debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and its impact on the global economy, which may pressure the Fed to act sooner on rate cuts [5]. - Gold prices are expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern until the September rate meeting, with potential risks of a decline towards the 30-week moving average or around $3200, although any significant pullback could present a buying opportunity [6][8].

Market Overview - Gold prices are currently trading around $3357, following a slight rebound that saw prices touch $3370 before closing at $3355.90, marking a 0.24% increase [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which has led to a general consensus in the market regarding this possibility, contributing to a weaker dollar index and declining U.S. Treasury yields, thus supporting gold prices [1] - However, the continuous highs in the U.S. stock market and a potential easing of geopolitical tensions have somewhat suppressed the safe-haven demand for gold [1] Gold Price Analysis - In the previous trading day, gold prices fell to a low of $3342.5 before rebounding, reaching a high of $3370.7, but ultimately closing lower at around $3350, resulting in profitable short positions [3] - Daily indicators show a bearish trend with the 5-day moving average declining, KDJ indicator showing a death cross, and MACD indicators indicating a reduction in bullish momentum [3] - Hourly charts indicate a recent high of $3374.7 before a downward trend, with KDJ and MACD indicators also reflecting a bearish outlook [3] Trading Recommendations - A recommendation is made to sell gold in the range of $3371-$3374, with a stop loss at $3379 and a target profit between $3355-$3350 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential misjudgment in the market's overwhelming consensus regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, despite slightly lower-than-expected overall inflation data in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest dollar index price is reported at 97.75, with a decline of 0.05% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - Core inflation data suggests that a rate cut is not guaranteed, indicating that the recent report may not be as optimistic as initially perceived [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a prevailing market expectation for a rate cut in September, but the actual likelihood may be lower than anticipated [1] - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates in September, it could lead to significant disappointment in the market [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - A bearish flag pattern support trendline is at risk of being broken, which could lead the dollar index to test the July low around 96.37 [1] - The current trendline is situated in the critical technical range of 97.98-98.09, with a potential drop below this level targeting 97.00 before reaching new lows in 2025 [1] - Resistance is observed at 98.95 for the dollar index [1]

Bradesco BBI股票策略主管Ben Laidler表示，整体数据略低于预期，这给市场带来了很大的安慰。表面 上看，这证实了市场对美联储9月降息的压倒性共识，但我们对此仍持谨慎态度。从核心数据来看，它 可能不像市场想象的那么稳操胜券。我们认为这份报告可能不如市场最初预期的那样好。我们将在杰克 逊霍尔研讨会上获得更多信息，届时鲍威尔将就9月份的政策走向提供一些指导。市场将继续压倒性地 预期9月份降息。但降息的可能性并不像市场想象的那么大。如果9月份没有降息，市场将会非常失望。 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 98.50, while spot silver opened at $37.60/oz and is currently around $37.82/oz, indicating a slight increase [1] - On August 11, the dollar index rose by 0.24% to close at 98.50, while spot silver fell by 1.89% to $37.60/oz due to a slight increase in the dollar index and a minor rise in US Treasury yields [1] - Spot gold experienced a significant drop of nearly $60, closing down 1.66% at $3342.20/oz, while platinum and palladium saw slight increases [1] Market Data - As of August 11, COMEX silver inventory stands at 15,752.11 tons, down by 1.58 tons from the previous trading day [2] - SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 67.8 tons to 15,058.6 tons [2] - The payment direction for the Ag(T+D) contract indicates that shorts are paying longs [2] Economic Insights - Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto raised concerns about the US-EU trade agreement, highlighting uncertainties regarding implementation and payment responsibilities [3] - Bank of America advised the Federal Reserve to refrain from early rate cuts, citing persistent inflation above the 2% target and potential risks associated with recent tariff increases [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 14.1%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 85.9% [4]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - Bitcoin has recently broken through the key resistance level of $116,000, forming a potential double bottom structure, indicating a strong technical pattern [1] - Ethereum has formed a somewhat irregular W bottom pattern, with indicators suggesting a high probability of continued upward movement and new highs in the coming week [3][5] - Ethereum's price has surged from $4066 to $4220, with the potential to turn the previous resistance of $4112 into a support level [5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Solana is currently undervalued in the market, with on-chain transaction volumes comparable to Ethereum, despite its market cap being significantly lower [8] - Two major catalysts for Solana include upcoming micro-strategies aiming to raise substantial funds for investment and a high probability of approval for a spot ETF [10][11] - The ideal entry points for Solana are around $158 and $130, with potential for significant returns as the market is expected to rebound [14] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Impact - The upcoming CPI inflation data is a significant variable that may affect the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of a 0.1% increase in both CPI and core CPI [22] - Despite potential inflation concerns, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve canceling the September rate cut remains low due to previous labor market weaknesses [24] - Historical patterns suggest that economic downturns often follow periods of interest rate hikes, raising concerns about potential recession risks in the coming year [24][25]