当地时间12月23日，美国商务部报告显示，第三季度美国经济增长初步估计值为4.3%，但市场的焦点依然是通货膨胀走势以及就业市场状况。临近昔年， 市场交投不活跃，但标普500仍创新高。周二收盘时，道琼斯30种工业股票平均指数涨0.16%，标准普尔500指数涨0.45%，纳斯达克指数涨0.57%。 在债券市场，十年期、二十年期、三十年期国债利率分别收于4.161%、4.778%、4.82%。美元指数收于97.59点，跌0.37%；2026年2月黄金期货收于4533.15 美元/盎司，涨0.40%。 最近美国公布的经济数据信息滞后，可信度低，未能完全打消市场的疑虑，投资者需要更多的数据来认清当前经济运行的真实状况。通货膨胀依然美国必须 面临的重大经济问题。而有关物价的统计数据质量差，难以获得市场认可，通胀形势依然不明朗。 目前，美国联邦政府总负债已超过38.5万亿美元，巨大财政负担令投资者焦虑，他们市场担心政府债务对经济运行的冲击作用。尽管美联储连续三次降息， 中长期利率却表现坚挺，甚至有攀升的迹象，投资者越来越担心债务成本上升，导致美元汇率表现疲软。 美国经济增长数据滞后，通胀数据可疑 中新社报道，美国商务部的首 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry warns that the Federal Reserve's resumption of short-term Treasury bond purchases indicates increasing reliance of the financial system on Fed support rather than stability [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has decided to stop shrinking its balance sheet and plans to purchase approximately $35 billion to $45 billion in U.S. Treasuries monthly, starting in January [1][3] - Burry questions the timing of the Fed's actions, noting that the U.S. Treasury has been issuing more short-term bonds to avoid raising 10-year yields [4] Group 2: Financial System Vulnerability - Burry states that without the Fed's over $3 trillion in reserves, the U.S. banking system would not be able to function, highlighting a sign of weakness rather than strength [1][3] - Before the banking turmoil in 2023, the financial system required about $2.2 trillion, compared to only $45 billion in 2007, indicating a rapid decline in the banking sector's strength [1][4] Group 3: Market Implications - Burry suggests that the Fed's tendency to expand its balance sheet after each crisis helps explain the strength of the stock market [5] - He also notes that the actual limitation of this approach could lead to the complete nationalization of the U.S. bond market, with the Fed owning all $40 trillion of U.S. debt [5]

2025.12. 11 本文字数：3418，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（11日）凌晨，美联储公布12月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9-3的 方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，这也是今年连续第三次降息，米兰倾向于下调 50个基点，堪萨斯联储主席施密德再次投下反对票，倾向于维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，这一 次他获得了芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比的支持。 美联储同时宣布，将启动短期国债购买计划，以此调节市场流动性水平，确保央行对自身利率目标体 系保持稳定控制。 美联储在季度经济展望（SEP）中上修经济预测，通胀预测小幅下修，就业市场基本稳定，备受关注 的点阵图预测明年或仅降息1次，与9月一致。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，目前联邦基 金利率已处于中性利率的大致预估区间内，完全有条件静观经济走势的变化。货币政策并非遵循预设 路径，我们将在每次会议上根据实际情况作出决策。 经济前景稳定 美联储决议声明显示，经济活动正以温和步伐扩张。今年以来，就业岗位增长有所放缓，失业率截至 9月已小幅上升。近期公布的更多指标也与上述趋势相符。通胀水平自年初以来有 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock raised the rating of US long-term government bonds from "underweight" to "neutral" due to investor expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The adjustment reflects a tactical investment stance for the next 6 to 12 months, ending a long-term "underweight" strategy [1] - As of Monday's close, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.034%, marking a four-week decline, although still above last September's low [1] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the rate range to 4% - 4.25% [1] - BlackRock downgraded its short-term US Treasury investment stance from "overweight" to "neutral" in response to the anticipated rate cut [1] - The labor market's weakness provides a basis for the rate cut, which could alleviate inflationary pressures, although the current macroeconomic outlook remains "cloudy" with core inflation above target [1] Group 3 - Despite inflation risks, BlackRock maintains a "risk-on" stance, believing that US growth is slowing but resilient, and corporate earnings will remain robust [1] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to support US equities, particularly benefiting growth-oriented themes [1] - BlackRock's long-term strategic allocation remains "underweight" in long-term government bonds, favoring inflation-linked bonds instead [1] Group 4 - The company noted that future macro scenarios could vary; if the labor market remains weak, rate cuts may not alleviate pressure on risk assets, while a rebound in hiring could lead to rising inflation [1] - On the same day, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs [1] - BlackRock views the Federal Reserve's policy decision this week as a significant turning point for global markets, with the potential rate cut supporting US stocks and long-term US Treasuries, while cautioning against rising inflation risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has upgraded its rating on U.S. long-term Treasuries from "underweight" to "neutral" as investors anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy Adjustments - BlackRock's tactical investment stance for U.S. long-term Treasuries has been adjusted to "neutral" for the next 6 to 12 months, ending a long-standing "underweight" strategy [1] - The company has also downgraded its position on short-term Treasuries from "overweight" to "neutral" [1] - The adjustment is based on the expectation of a short-term decline in Treasury yields, despite structural factors pushing yields higher in the long term [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.034%, marking its fourth consecutive week of decline, although it remains above the 52-week low of 3.622% reached last September [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - BlackRock's Jean Boivin noted that a weak labor market provides a reasonable basis for the Fed to cut rates, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - Despite inflation risks, BlackRock maintains a "risk-on" stance, believing that U.S. economic growth, while slowing, remains resilient, and corporate earnings will continue to be stable [2] - The market's driving factors are shifting from tariffs and policy uncertainty to a balance between inflation, economic growth, and government debt [2] - BlackRock's long-term strategic allocation still favors inflation-linked bonds over long-term government bonds [2] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, indicating positive market sentiment [3] - BlackRock views the Fed's upcoming policy decision as a potential turning point for global markets, with the possibility of supporting both U.S. equities and long-term Treasuries if the rate cut occurs under controlled inflation and sustained economic growth [3] - However, the market must remain vigilant regarding the potential resurgence of inflation [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights a decrease in short-term U.S. Treasury prices due to weakened market belief in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year [1] Economic Data - The U.S. second-quarter growth rate was revised from 3% to 3.3%, exceeding economists' expectations [1] - Initial jobless claims fell more than expected, indicating a strong labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the data release, yields on two to five-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by at least two basis points to daily highs [1] - The front end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut rates in September [1] Expert Commentary - The strategy head at Societe Generale noted that the data indicates consumer resilience [1] - Despite Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance, the data has diminished the necessity for rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that strong U.S. economic growth and employment data have diminished market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year [1] Economic Growth - The U.S. second-quarter economic growth rate was revised from 3% to 3.3%, exceeding economists' expectations [1] - This revision indicates a robust economic performance, contributing to the overall market sentiment [1] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims decreased more than expected, signaling strength in the labor market [1] - This decline in claims supports the notion of consumer resilience despite tariff uncertainties [1] Market Reaction - Following the economic data release, yields on 2 to 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by at least two basis points, reaching daily highs [1] - The front end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is experiencing pressure regarding the necessity of a rate cut in September [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to Société Générale's U.S. interest rate strategy head, the data continues to undermine the necessity for rate cuts [1] - Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's inclination towards a more dovish stance, the economic data is influencing market expectations against rate cuts [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategy team recommends investors to go long on U.S. short-term government bonds due to the market pricing in an 84% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] Group 1 - The U.S. interest rates remain stable, with recent inflation data not causing significant volatility [1] - The baseline scenario for a September rate cut remains solid, but further evidence of a weak labor market or clear policy signals from the Federal Reserve are needed to push the market towards pricing in a faster rate cut [1] - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the money market currently prices in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September with an 84% probability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is set to issue a five-year government bond amid rising concerns over market liquidity and volatility, which overshadow the auction [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Concerns about liquidity in the Japanese government bond market have intensified, with the benchmark 10-year bond recording zero transactions for the first time in over two years [1] - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds has been particularly volatile this year, influenced by both domestic and global market fluctuations [1] - A liquidity measure for Japanese government bonds indicates a significant increase in the deviation of daily yields from fair value, surpassing levels seen during the 2008 global financial crisis [1] Group 2: Auction Expectations - Analysts from Tokai Tokyo Securities express optimism regarding the upcoming five-year bond auction, predicting a potential rebound in prices after an initial drop [1] - Senior rate strategist Miki Den from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Securities believes the auction is likely to be successful, noting that current yields are higher than those at the last auction [2] - The average bid-to-cover ratio from the last auction was 3.54, slightly below the 12-month average of 3.78, indicating a potential shift in demand dynamics [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to heighten concerns about stagflation, which may put additional pressure on long-term Japanese government bonds [2] - The rise in the German 30-year bond yield to its highest level since 2011, coupled with concerns about fiscal sustainability, is likely to negatively impact the performance of Japanese long-term bonds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury is set to auction a record $100 billion in short-term bonds on August 7, 2023, as part of a strategy to manage its growing debt burden and refinance maturing obligations [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Levels and Market Impact - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.21 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the International Monetary Fund's warning threshold [3]. - The issuance of short-term bonds is intended to fill a $500 billion funding gap in the Treasury General Account (TGA), but excessive reliance on short-term debt may lead to a vicious cycle of increased borrowing costs and interest rate volatility [4][5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - There is a structural weakening in demand for U.S. Treasuries, exacerbating liquidity pressures in the market. The ability of commercial banks to increase short-term bond holdings is limited due to regulatory constraints [6]. - Major holders of U.S. debt, such as Japan and China, continue to reduce their holdings, creating a fragile support system for U.S. Treasuries amid supply-demand imbalances [7]. Group 3: Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - The current trajectory of U.S. federal finances is unsustainable, with warnings from top economists about the potential for a fiscal crisis if corrective measures are not taken [10][11]. - The structural deterioration of the U.S. government's fiscal situation is characterized by uncontrolled debt levels, surging short-term bond supply, and diminishing market absorption capacity [11].