1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are currently facing an oversupply situation with weakening downstream demand, and both are expected to show a volatile trend today [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase in December and a suspension of the increase plan from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is relatively stable, while the demand for packaging films has weakened after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6440 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -36, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.6%, indicating a bearish outlook [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a weak market, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase in December and a suspension of the increase plan from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have been continuously declining due to the strong propane price. The demand for plastic weaving has entered the off - season and declined, while the demand for pipes is acceptable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6200 (-50), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -79, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.3%, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing but still bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a weak market, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to fluctuate today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro policies [7] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6440 (-20), the price of the 05 contract is 6476 (-3). The basis is -36 (-17). The warehouse receipt is 11,332 (0), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6200 (-50), the price of the 05 contract is 6279 (+25). The basis is -79 (-75). The warehouse receipt is 10,534 (-196), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been growing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing over the years [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity utilization, inventory levels, macro - economic indicators, and international events. The trading strategies vary daily based on these factors, with suggestions of holding, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines for both L and PP contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The price of LLDPE market mostly shows fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. The trading volume is often limited due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing attitudes. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, the L主力 2605 contract closed at 6434 points, down 42 points or 0.65%. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE market was between 6390 - 6850 yuan/ton [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP market is also in a state of adjustment. Some regions have structural supply shortages, but the overall trading atmosphere is weak. On 12 - 25 - 19, the PP主力 2605 contract closed at 6248 points, down 31 points or 0.49% [1] Important Information - **Domestic Economy**: In 2025, the total social electricity consumption in China is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh for the first time, and the total installed power generation capacity exceeds 380 million kilowatts. The new energy industry has developed rapidly, with new installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching about 370 million kilowatts [2] - **Industry Development**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the Chinese synthetic resin industry has achieved high - quality development, with the largest production capacity in the world. The ethylene self - sufficiency rate has increased from 73% to 90%. The industry has diversified raw material routes, optimized product structures, and achieved independent breakthroughs in technology and equipment [9] Logical Analysis - **Production and Consumption**: In October, the apparent consumption of PE and PP increased, with a combined total of 735.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The production capacity utilization rate of PE and PP also showed different trends, with some periods of increase and some of decrease [16] - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Macroeconomic indicators such as the M1 and M2 growth rates, the China Bond New Composite Index, and the logistics industry prosperity index have an impact on the polyolefin market. For example, in November, the domestic M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, with the scissors difference at - 3.1% [10] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies include holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, it was suggested to stay on the sidelines for the L主力 2605 contract and the PP主力 2605 contract, and pay attention to the support at 6200 points for the PP contract [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines, but there are also suggestions to try long or short positions in certain situations [3] - **Options Trading**: Generally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [4]. - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026 [4]. - Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based production profits [4]. - Agricultural film demand is weak, while packaging film demand is mainly based on rigid needs, with some areas showing improvement [4]. - The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,570 (-10), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4]. Other Indicators - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 12, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [4]. - PE comprehensive inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), also neutral [4]. - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, showing a bullish sign [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is showing a weak downward trend. With oversupply in the fundamentals, rising propane prices driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and falling downstream demand, it is expected that PE will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new productions in the fourth quarter [5] - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [6]. - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026 [6]. - Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based production profits [6]. - Plastic weaving has entered the off - season with falling demand, while pipe demand is acceptable [6]. - The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,300 (0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6]. Other Indicators - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 59, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.9%, considered bullish [6]. - PP comprehensive inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), neutral [6]. - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, but still bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is showing a weak downward trend. With oversupply in the fundamentals, rising propane prices driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and average downstream demand, it is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend today [6]. Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [7] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new productions in the fourth quarter [7] - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, capacity, production, and consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with varying growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4,319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, capacity, production, and consumption have generally increased, with different growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4,906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转。供需端，农 膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6640（-10）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差30，升贴水比例0.5%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDP ...

聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转，俄乌和平协 议短期受挫，油价震荡偏强。供需端，农膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所 转好。当前LL交割品现货价6650（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差7，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），中 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-3 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6820（+30）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-11，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides daily observations on the plastic L and PP markets, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and spot market prices for both L and PP. Important news covers various corporate developments, such as production expansions, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships. Logical analyses consider multiple factors like domestic and international economic indicators, production and inventory data, and their impacts on the polyolefin market. Trading strategies include suggestions on holding, buying, or selling L and PP contracts, as well as options for arbitrage and options trading [1][2][5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with some days showing increases and others decreases. LLDPE market prices also varied, with fluctuations in different regions and ranges from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Market sentiment was often affected by factors such as futures trends, factory price adjustments, and downstream demand. For example, on 25 - 12 - 03, L2601 contract closed at 6817 points, down 14 points or - 0.20%, and LLDPE market prices partially declined [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also had ups and downs. PP market prices showed narrow - range fluctuations, with some days having slight increases or decreases. The market was influenced by factors like futures performance, factory price changes, and downstream procurement behavior. For instance, on 25 - 12 - 03, PP2601 contract closed at 6398 points, down 12 points or - 0.19%, and the domestic PP market prices had a narrow - range fluctuation [1]. Important News - **Corporate Developments**: Many companies announced significant events, such as齐翔腾达's plan to extend its industrial chain in the MMA and PMMA fields,科思创's acquisition by XRG, and万华绿能's establishment in the energy sector. These events could potentially impact the supply and demand of related products in the market [1][21][40]. - **Industry - wide Information**: Information about the global and domestic chemical industries was also reported, including the performance of the基础化工板块, the development of the global特种建筑化学品 market, and the status of China's chemical industry in terms of production and technology [37][18][60]. Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Various economic indicators were considered, such as domestic automobile sales, manufacturing PMI, global stock market value, and currency - related indices. These indicators had different impacts on the polyolefin market, either positive or negative. For example, a decline in domestic automobile sales index was negative for polyolefin prices [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: Data on PE and PP production capacity utilization, registered warehouse receipts, and inventory levels were analyzed. Increases or decreases in production capacity utilization and inventory changes could affect market supply and demand relationships. For instance, an increase in PE production capacity utilization might lead to an increase in supply [10]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions included holding long or short positions in L and PP contracts, with specific stop - loss points recommended. For example, on some days, it was recommended to hold long positions in L主力 01 contract and set stop - loss at a certain point [2]. - **Arbitrage**: There were also suggestions for arbitrage trading, such as holding positions in specific contract combinations and setting stop - loss levels [2]. - **Options Trading**: In most cases, the report recommended a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6790（+20）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-13，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：LL ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加季节性， LL1-5反套或将持续 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/29 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场情绪转暖，国内能化品种回归各自基本面，涨跌各现。 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度跌幅（期货＞现货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-1.33%，Brent原油下跌-0.60%，煤价下跌-1.80%，甲醇上涨4.49%，乙烯上涨0.23%，丙烯上涨2.27%，丙 烷上涨0.88%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率84.12%，环比上涨0.42%，同比去年上涨3.44%，较5年同期下降-5.17%。PP产能利用率77.97%，环比上涨 ...