Group 1 - The European Commission has approved a free trade agreement with the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) countries to expand into the Latin American market and offset trade losses due to U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - The agreement, which has been in negotiation for over 20 years, aims to create a free trade area covering approximately 700 million people, with Mercosur committing to gradually eliminate tariffs on 91% of EU goods [1][2] - The EU estimates that if the agreement is implemented, annual exports to Mercosur could increase by up to €49 billion (approximately $57 billion) [1] Group 2 - The agreement requires approval from at least 15 of the 27 EU member states, representing over 65% of the population, as well as the European Parliament [2] - Some EU member states, particularly France and Poland, express concerns that the influx of cheap agricultural products from Mercosur could undermine local agriculture, prompting the EU to propose strong safeguard mechanisms [2] - The EU's support for the agreement is partly driven by the need to counteract trade losses caused by the current U.S. government's tariff policies [3]

Core Points - The U.S. has implemented a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods, effective from August 7, 2023, due to India's import of Russian oil, raising the total tariff rate on Indian products to 50% [3] - The tariffs are expected to reduce India's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points this year and next, with an estimated impact on $48.2 billion worth of Indian exports [3] - The Indian government is taking measures to mitigate the impact, including financial assistance for affected businesses and promoting exports to nearly 50 countries [4] Group 1 - The U.S. tariffs on Indian goods are a response to India's import of Russian oil, leading to a cumulative tariff rate of 50% [3] - The tariffs are projected to cause significant economic repercussions, including a decline in India's GDP growth and potential large-scale unemployment in key export regions [3] - The Indian government is committed to providing financial support to businesses affected by the tariffs, including increased bank loan subsidies and diversification of industries [4] Group 2 - India is actively seeking free trade agreements with major economies to enhance export opportunities and reduce reliance on the U.S. market [4] - The Reserve Bank of India is prepared to protect the economy from the adverse effects of the high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [4] - Prime Minister Modi has emphasized the government's commitment to safeguarding the interests of small businesses, farmers, and livestock owners amid these challenges [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has imposed a 25% punitive tariff on goods imported from India, effective from August 7, 2023, due to India's import of Russian oil, bringing the total tariff rate on Indian products to 50% [1] - The tariffs are expected to reduce India's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points this year and next year, according to Capital Economics [1] - The Indian government estimates that the U.S. tariffs will impact $48.2 billion worth of Indian exports, with a projected trade volume of $128.8 billion between the U.S. and India in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Indian engineering export promotion council predicts that exports may decline by 20% to 30% due to the new tariffs, as U.S. customers have stopped placing new orders [1] - In response to the tariffs, the Indian government plans to provide financial assistance to affected businesses and promote exports to nearly 50 countries, focusing on textiles, food processing, leather goods, and seafood [1] - The Indian government is seeking free trade agreements with major economies to diversify export markets [2] Group 3 - The Reserve Bank of India is prepared to protect the economy from the impact of high U.S. tariffs, with potential actions to increase credit and liquidity [2] - Indian Prime Minister Modi has emphasized the government's commitment to safeguarding the interests of small businesses, farmers, and livestock owners amid the tariff pressures [2] - The next round of U.S.-India trade negotiations has been postponed due to the cancellation of a U.S. trade delegation's visit to India [2]

Group 1 - The meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar aims to strengthen the strategic partnership between India and Russia, particularly in the energy sector [1][3] - India plans to increase trade with Russia by approximately 50% over the next five years, reaching around $100 billion, amidst rising tensions in India-US relations [3][4] - India remains committed to purchasing Russian oil based on its national interests, despite pressure from the US, which has imposed tariffs on Indian goods [4] Group 2 - The cooperation in oil and gas between India and Russia has yielded "good results," with intentions to develop joint energy production projects [3] - The defense and military technology cooperation between the two countries is at a high level, indicating a solid foundation for future collaboration [3] - India and the Eurasian Economic Union have initiated negotiations for a free trade agreement to explore new markets and address current trade challenges [4]

Core Points - The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) came into effect on August 1, 2020, allowing over 70% of goods to be traded without tariffs, with plans to eliminate 99% of tariffs over time [1] - Since the agreement's implementation, bilateral trade has increased from $55.4 billion in 2020 to nearly $70 billion by the end of 2024 [1] - Vietnam's total exports to the EU have reached $270 billion, accounting for nearly 40% of the total trade volume between the two parties since 1995, making Vietnam the EU's largest trading partner in ASEAN and the 16th largest globally [1] - The EU is Vietnam's third-largest export market and fourth-largest source of imports [1]

Economic Performance - Cambodia's economy shows strong but uneven performance, with manufacturing and services growth driven by stable exports, particularly in garments and tourism[35] - Agricultural sector employment remains significant, supporting 3.1 million jobs, but its contribution to GDP growth is limited, only 0.2 percentage points in 2024[36] - Total rice production increased by 11.0% in 2024, but structural challenges persist, including reliance on weather conditions and price volatility[36] Trade and Investment - Exports to the US, especially garments, remain strong, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% in Q1 2025, contributing significantly to consumer confidence[38] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows are primarily from China, accounting for 65.5% of total net FDI, while domestic investment approvals have sharply declined by 96.7% year-on-year[39][43] - Total goods exports reached $26.673 billion in 2024, with a significant contribution from the garment, travel goods, and footwear sectors[43] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation rose to 3.7% in March 2025, driven mainly by food price increases, while broad money supply growth reached 19.0%[38] - The banking sector reported a non-performing loan (NPL) rate of 7.9% by the end of 2024, indicating deteriorating asset quality[40] Fiscal Policy and Public Debt - Central government revenue increased by 11.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to significant growth in VAT and non-tax revenues[40] - Public debt remains low at 25.9% of GDP as of the end of 2024, with a projected fiscal deficit of 2.7% of GDP for 2025[41] Social Impact and Inequality - Economic recovery has been uneven, with household consumption per capita growing by 8% from 2021 to 2023, but disparities exist between income groups[42] - The poorest 20% saw a 7% increase in consumption, while the wealthiest 20% experienced a 10% increase, highlighting income inequality[42]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the United States and South Korea has sparked significant domestic criticism in South Korea, with concerns over concessions made by the South Korean government [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The trade agreement includes a 15% tariff on South Korean products exported to the U.S., while U.S. products will not face tariffs in South Korea [1]. - South Korea is set to invest $350 billion in the U.S. and purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas and other energy products from the U.S. [1]. - South Korea will fully open its trade to the U.S. and accept U.S. agricultural products, including automobiles [1]. Group 2: Domestic Reactions - The largest opposition party in South Korea, the People Power Party, argues that the agreement has led to excessive concessions, potentially harming South Korea's interests [1]. - Experts have noted that despite the tariff levels being comparable to those faced by Japan and the EU, the agreement is still seen as detrimental to South Korea, which had expected lower tariffs under the existing free trade agreement [2]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the opening of South Korea's agricultural market, particularly in relation to rice and beef, where the South Korean government has sought to maintain restrictions due to food security concerns [1].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil markets, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend analysis [1]. Key Points 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is in a high - level game, and investors should wait for a callback opportunity; soybean oil is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,900 yuan/ton (down 0.91% in the day - session) and 8,868 yuan/ton (down 0.36% in the night - session); soybean oil主力 closed at 8,192 yuan/ton (down 0.58% in the day - session) and 8,198 yuan/ton in the night - session; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton (down 1.15% in the day - session) and 9,480 yuan/ton (down 0.32% in the night - session). The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed [1]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,530 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis and various spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were provided, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 610 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Export**: ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the previous month; AmSpec reported a 9.58% decrease to 1,163,216 tons [2][3]. - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, up from $877.89 in July, and the export tax will increase from $52/ton in July to $74/ton in August. The EU may give zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO exports annually when the free - trade agreement is approved [6]. - **Soybean - related News**: About 5% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of July 29, down from 8% the previous week. The 2025/26 US soybean production is estimated to be around 118 million tons. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from July 27 - August 2 are expected to be 2.5504 million tons, 0.3864 million tons, and 1.7742 million tons respectively. Ukraine's 2025 soybean production may decrease by over 1 million tons due to a 24% reduction in planting area [7][8]. - **Rapeseed News**: Kazakhstan's rapeseed exports in the first 10 months of the 2024/25 season (September - August) reached 117,900 tons, a three - fold increase from the previous year [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10].

Core Viewpoint - India aims to sign free trade agreements with several countries to enhance its trade relationships and economic growth [1] Group 1 - India is actively pursuing free trade agreements to boost its economic ties with various nations [1] - The initiative is part of India's broader strategy to increase exports and attract foreign investment [1] - The government is focusing on sectors that can benefit from reduced tariffs and improved market access [1]

印尼官员：措施预计将在新的自由贸易协定批准后生效，可能在明年生效。 ...