Report Overview - The report focuses on the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil markets, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend analysis [1]. Key Points 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is in a high - level game, and investors should wait for a callback opportunity; soybean oil is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,900 yuan/ton (down 0.91% in the day - session) and 8,868 yuan/ton (down 0.36% in the night - session); soybean oil主力 closed at 8,192 yuan/ton (down 0.58% in the day - session) and 8,198 yuan/ton in the night - session; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton (down 1.15% in the day - session) and 9,480 yuan/ton (down 0.32% in the night - session). The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed [1]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,530 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis and various spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were provided, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 610 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Export**: ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the previous month; AmSpec reported a 9.58% decrease to 1,163,216 tons [2][3]. - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, up from $877.89 in July, and the export tax will increase from $52/ton in July to $74/ton in August. The EU may give zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO exports annually when the free - trade agreement is approved [6]. - **Soybean - related News**: About 5% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of July 29, down from 8% the previous week. The 2025/26 US soybean production is estimated to be around 118 million tons. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from July 27 - August 2 are expected to be 2.5504 million tons, 0.3864 million tons, and 1.7742 million tons respectively. Ukraine's 2025 soybean production may decrease by over 1 million tons due to a 24% reduction in planting area [7][8]. - **Rapeseed News**: Kazakhstan's rapeseed exports in the first 10 months of the 2024/25 season (September - August) reached 117,900 tons, a three - fold increase from the previous year [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10].

Core Viewpoint - India aims to sign free trade agreements with several countries to enhance its trade relationships and economic growth [1] Group 1 - India is actively pursuing free trade agreements to boost its economic ties with various nations [1] - The initiative is part of India's broader strategy to increase exports and attract foreign investment [1] - The government is focusing on sectors that can benefit from reduced tariffs and improved market access [1]

印尼官员：措施预计将在新的自由贸易协定批准后生效，可能在明年生效。 ...

Core Insights - India is making rapid progress in free trade agreement negotiations with the European Union and the United States [1] Group 1 - The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, highlighted the swift advancements in trade discussions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that India has made rapid progress in negotiations for free trade agreements with the European Union and the United States [1] Group 2 - The Indian Trade Minister highlighted the importance of these agreements in enhancing trade relations and economic cooperation with major global economies [1] - The negotiations are expected to lead to increased market access and reduced tariffs, benefiting various sectors within India [1] - The progress in talks reflects India's strategic focus on strengthening its position in global trade [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Mexico and Brazil have not discussed a free trade agreement, focusing instead on economic support discussions [1] Group 2 - The discussions between Mexico and Brazil are centered around economic support rather than trade agreements [1]

Core Points - Indian Prime Minister Modi is set to visit the UK for two days starting on the 23rd, with a significant free trade agreement expected to be signed on the 24th [1][3] - This visit marks Modi's fourth trip to the UK since taking office [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The free trade agreement will allow 99% of Indian exports to the UK to enjoy zero tariffs, covering sectors such as jewelry, textiles, engineering products, leather, clothing, and processed foods [3] - In exchange, 90% of UK exports to India will receive phased tariff reductions, with immediate cuts for Scottish whisky tariffs from 150% to 75%, and further reductions to 40% over ten years [3] - Current tariffs on UK automobiles exceeding 100% will be reduced to 10% under a quota system [3] Group 2: Economic Significance - The agreement is seen as the most economically significant trade deal for the UK post-Brexit and marks India's first major free trade agreement outside Asia [3] - Analysts suggest that this agreement signifies the beginning of a long-term economic partnership between the two nations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Minister of External Affairs announced that the country is in the final stages of legal review and other preparations for the India-UK Free Trade Agreement [1] Group 1 - The legal review process for the India-UK Free Trade Agreement is currently underway [1] - The negotiations are approaching completion, indicating a significant step towards enhancing trade relations between India and the UK [1]

Core Viewpoint - India and the UK are expected to sign a free trade agreement on July 24 during Prime Minister Modi's visit to the UK, which is currently undergoing legal review and will require approval from both the Indian Union Cabinet and the UK Parliament to take effect [1] Group 1 - The free trade agreement is a significant step in enhancing trade relations between India and the UK [1] - The agreement is part of ongoing efforts to strengthen economic ties and facilitate trade between the two nations [1] - Legal review is a necessary step before the agreement can be finalized and implemented [1]

Group 1 - The Philippines is pushing for zero tariffs on certain export products to the U.S. as part of a strategy to deepen trade relations and attract foreign investment [2][4] - The Philippine government is currently negotiating specific products for tariff exemptions, not all products [4] - The U.S. recently increased tariffs on Philippine goods to 20%, up from an initial 17%, which is a point of discussion in upcoming meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. [4][6] Group 2 - In 2024, the Philippines is projected to have a trade surplus of approximately $5 billion with the U.S., providing leverage in trade negotiations [4] - The total trade volume between the U.S. and the Philippines was $23.5 billion last year, with the U.S. exporting $9.3 billion and importing $14.2 billion from the Philippines, resulting in a trade deficit of $4.9 billion for the U.S. [4] - The Philippines aims to establish a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the U.S. and is also looking to expand trade agreements with Europe and other countries [5][6] Group 3 - Fitch Solutions' BMI research indicates that the Philippines has a favorable position in trade negotiations with the U.S. due to its relatively low export exposure and potential influence in defense cooperation [6] - The average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on the Philippines is lower compared to other Asian countries, which may work in the Philippines' favor during negotiations [6][7] - Increasing defense spending could be a strategic concession for the Philippines, potentially impressing U.S. officials and aiding in trade agreement discussions [7]