瑞士央行行长：房地产行业价格上涨是负利率带来的一项不良副作用之一。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) believes that a zero interest rate does not imply negative interest rates, even though market rates may be in the negative territory [1] Group 1 - The SNB's stance indicates a differentiation between policy rates and market rates, suggesting that the central bank does not view the current market conditions as a signal to adopt negative rates [1]

瑞士央行管委会成员Tschudin：预计明天起货币市场利率将为负。 ...

瑞士央行行长：我们不会轻易做出降息至负利率的决定。绝不排除采取任何关于利率的措施。 ...

瑞士央行行长：意识到负利率带来的不良影响。对未来通胀的不确定性仍然较高。如果今天没有降息， 我们的通胀预期将会更低。我们将持续关注形势变化，并在必要时调整政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising market uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and upcoming central bank decisions, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank, highlighting the potential for divergent monetary policies globally [1][4]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during the upcoming decision, with a 99% probability of no change, and the earliest potential rate cut anticipated in September [4]. - Recent economic data shows signs of a cooling labor market and declining inflation, reducing the likelihood of a severe stagflation scenario [4]. - Concerns remain regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process [4][5]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged, with a focus on forward guidance amid ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [7][8]. - A significant portion of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will slow its bond purchase reduction starting in April 2026, reflecting concerns over rising government debt costs [9][10]. - The Japanese government has issued warnings about rising bond yields and the need for domestic ownership of government bonds to avoid supply-demand imbalances [8]. Swiss National Bank - The Swiss National Bank's upcoming decision is under scrutiny, with a 69% chance of reducing the key interest rate from 0.25% to 0% and a 31% chance of moving to -0.25% [11]. - The Swiss economy faces deflationary pressures due to a strong Swiss franc, which has appreciated over 10% against the dollar this year, leading to a negative CPI for the first time since the pandemic [11][12]. - The strong franc's impact on import prices is a significant concern for the Swiss National Bank, potentially forcing it to take action to address inflation [12]. Bank of England - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 4.25%, despite concerns in the labor market and ongoing inflation considerations [12][13]. - Market predictions suggest that the Bank of England may follow the Fed's path, with potential rate cuts expected later in the year [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges posed by a low-interest-rate environment and suggests various asset allocation strategies to mitigate inflation pressure and enhance returns in such conditions [1][3][7]. Group 1: Financial Environment - The global financial environment is becoming increasingly complex, with many individuals struggling to keep pace [1]. - Japan's zero interest rate policy since 1999 and Europe's negative interest rates since 2014 have led to a shift in asset allocation strategies among residents [1][3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have reached $3,300, and Bitcoin has surged to $110,000, while deposit interest rates have fallen below 1%, creating significant pressure on traditional savings [3]. - Major domestic banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1% [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Personal asset management should follow a "three-part method" for diversified asset allocation [3]. - Short-term liquidity should be managed through money market funds or T+0 cash management products, with annualized rates around 1% [3]. - High-dividend stocks and REITs are recommended for stable income, with average dividend rates of approximately 3% for domestic ETFs and up to 7% for Hong Kong's high-dividend ETFs [5]. - A combination of government bonds, convertible bonds, and high-rated corporate bonds can target around 3% returns, with domestic options including policy financial bond funds and convertible bond index funds [5]. - Long-term guaranteed income can be achieved through life insurance products offering around 3% returns, although recent trends show a decline in guaranteed rates [5][7]. Group 4: Global Asset Diversification - Investors concerned about currency depreciation are advised to consider QDII index funds and gold ETFs for international asset diversification and commodity risk hedging [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted investment strategy to adapt to the low-interest-rate environment and ensure asset preservation and growth [7].

Core Insights - The banking landscape is changing in 2025, with a significant increase in savings deposits, reaching 9.22 trillion yuan in Q1, averaging 2,195 yuan per person per month [1] - Interest rates on savings are declining, with three-year fixed deposit rates dropping from 3.05% three years ago to below 2% now, resulting in a 37.7% decrease in interest income for depositors [1] - Inflation is eroding the purchasing power of savings, with a three-year fixed deposit rate of 1.5% failing to keep pace with rising prices, leading to a projected loss of 1,100 yuan in value per year for a 100,000 yuan deposit [3] Banking and Savings Trends - The trend of decreasing interest rates is expected to continue, influenced by central bank policies and global economic conditions, making traditional savings less beneficial for depositors [1] - The liquidity of fixed deposits is a concern, as early withdrawal results in significantly lower interest earnings, exemplified by a case where a depositor lost over 10,000 yuan due to early withdrawal penalties [5] Investment Strategies - A diversified approach to managing funds is recommended, suggesting that individuals should not rely solely on fixed deposits but instead allocate funds into different categories for better flexibility and security [5] - Caution is advised against chasing high-yield investments without proper knowledge, as many investment products, including mutual funds, have experienced significant losses [7] - Different age groups should adopt tailored investment strategies, with younger individuals taking on more risk while older individuals prioritize safety and capital preservation [7]

相对于美联储、欧洲央行在6月议息例会上的平淡表现，瑞士央行即将召开的6月例会可能会给投资者带 来不一样的感受。其背后最受关注的焦点在于：在时隔数年之后，瑞士央行会成为首个重返负利率的欧 美央行吗？ 这种猜测并非无稽之谈。瑞士联邦统计局最新公布的数据显示，该国5月份消费者价格指数同比下降 0.1%，这是自2021年3月瑞士经济受到新冠危机打击以来的最低水平。通胀率转为负值，不仅标志着瑞 士消费者物价指数已经降至0-2%的目标区间之外，也意味着瑞士央行本月晚些时候大幅降息的压力加 大。 6月例会或成焦点 荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家蒙彼利埃预计，6月瑞士央行将降息25个基点，9月第二次降息25个基点。 蒙彼利埃表示，瑞士央行必须采取行动，将通胀预期维持在0-2%的目标区间内。"我认为瑞士央行会希 望将利率停在-0.25%……但风险在于，如果瑞士法郎变得更加昂贵，油价继续下跌，情况将进一步恶 化，瑞士央行将不得不进一步降息。"蒙彼利埃表示。 瑞银和瑞士盈丰银行的经济学家也预测，瑞士央行6月份将降息25个基点。瑞士经济协会首席经济学家 鲁道夫明施则预计，瑞士央行将在6月或9月一次性降息25个基点，然后停止降息。他认 ...

各大国有银行下调存款利率，1年期银行存款利率跌破1%了。为什么会跌破1%呢？主要有两个原因：一是，不跌不行，银行扛不住。因为存款是银行的 负债，存款利率越高，银行的债务成本就越高。银行的业务本质上就是，把民众的存款低息借过来，再高息贷出去，赚的是息差。可现在，央行降准降息 了，基准利率下调10个基点，降到3.5%了。 | | 最新贷款市场报价利率 (LPR) | 贷款市场报价利率简介 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025-05-20 9:00 | | | 期限 | LPR(%) | | 1 | 1Y | 3.00 | | ↑ | 5Y | 3.50 | 那有人说了，这才3.5%而已，怎么存款利率就跌破1%了呢？这中间不还有2.5%的息差可以赚吗？银行有啥扛不住的？这就关系到银行的综合成本了。首 先，银行要养人。像工行就有41.5万名员工，建行也有37.6万员工，这些人得吃得喝，得交社保。2024年，工行员工总成本就有1075亿，人均薪酬34.42万 元。这个成本是相当高的。 其次，银行有坏账，也就是不良贷款。咱们还是以工行为例，它2024年的贷款不良率约为1.34%，不良贷款总额接 ...