Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The bank's non-interest income has shown significant improvement, contributing to revenue growth despite a slight decline in net interest income [1][2] - The bank's asset quality remains stable with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.91% and a provision coverage ratio of 266% [2][3] - The bank's core tier one capital adequacy ratio is at 9.21%, reflecting a decrease due to increased loan disbursements [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Postal Savings Bank reported revenue of 89.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.07%, with net profit at 25.4 billion yuan, down 2.62% year-on-year [1] - Non-interest income reached 20.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.83%, driven mainly by a 104.58% increase in investment net income [1] - The bank's net interest margin recorded at 1.70%, down 15 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 20 basis points year-on-year [2] Asset and Liability Management - Total interest-earning assets amounted to 17.45 trillion yuan, growing 8.1% year-on-year, with loans and financial investments increasing by 10.1% and 9.5% respectively [2] - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities reached 16.70 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, with deposits growing by 9.2% [2] Profitability Forecast - The bank's projected net profit growth for 2025-2027 is estimated at 1.23%, 3.98%, and 4.42% respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BPS) of 8.82, 9.25, and 9.64 yuan [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a buy rating for the company’s A/H shares [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in net profit and operating income for Q1 2025, with net profit down by 2.6% and operating income down by 0.1% [1]. - The company is experiencing pressure on its net interest margin, which decreased to 1.71%, while non-interest income showed strong growth of 14.8% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on cost optimization, which is reflected in the reduction of its cost-to-income ratio to 56.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company’s annualized ROE and ROA were 11.33% and 0.58%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The company’s total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 8.3%, 9.8%, and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Credit and Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was reported at 0.91%, with a provision coverage ratio of 266% [4]. - The company’s NPL generation rate increased to 0.88%, indicating a rise in asset quality concerns [4]. Capital and Valuation - The report estimates the company’s EPS for 2025 at 0.88 RMB, with a projected PB ratio of 0.70 for A shares and 0.64 for H shares [5]. - The target prices are set at 6.29 RMB for A shares and 6.17 HKD for H shares [8][9].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 亿、-39亿。25Q1末，对公贷款（含贴现）、零售贷款同比增速分别为18.2%、6.1%，增速较上年末分别下降 1.6、3.1pct，贷款投放保持较高强度。 利息收入贡献季环比提升，盈利增速维持高位 杭州银行25Q1营收、拨备前利润、归母净利润同比增速分别为2.2%、3%、17.3%，较2024年分别下降7.4、 6.5、0.8pct。其中，净利息收入、非息收入同比增速分别为6.8%、-5.4%，较2024年分别变动+2.4、-25.6pct。 拆分盈利同比增速结构，规模扩张、拨备为主要贡献分项，分别拉动业绩增速20、17.4pct；从边际变化看，规 模正贡献小幅下降但仍维持高位，息差负向拖累收窄，对利息收入形成支撑；非息收入由正向拉动 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $10.2 million or $0.66 per diluted share, a 60% increase from Q1 2024 and a $275,000 increase from the previous quarter [4] - Net interest income for the quarter was $32.8 million, representing a 4.5% increase compared to the previous quarter [5] - The efficiency ratio improved to 64.9% from 68.3% in the linked quarter and 73.8% in the prior year's first quarter [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The loan and lease portfolio grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% during the first quarter, with total loans and leases increasing by $22.8 million [11] - Non-interest income declined by $1.2 million or 12.8% compared to the linked quarter, primarily due to a decrease in gains on the sale of loans and other fees [10] - The company anticipates loan growth to be in the mid-single digit range for the remainder of 2025 [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total deposits increased by $27 million or an annualized growth rate of 3.2%, with organic deposit growth of $67.1 million excluding brokered deposits [14][15] - The loan-to-deposit ratio was 95.8% at quarter-end, indicating a disciplined approach to managing loan growth [15] - The average deposit account, excluding CDs, was approximately $28,000, reflecting a granular deposit base [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on deepening customer relationships to reduce reliance on brokered funding, which is seen as a valuable characteristic of the deposit franchise [16] - Management is committed to increasing tangible common equity while balancing dividend payments and potential stock repurchases [17][18] - The company plans to invest in technology and digital initiatives to enhance customer engagement and operational efficiency [33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of the core deposit franchise and the ability to control non-interest expenses, positioning the company well for future success [19][90] - The economic environment in Ohio and Southeastern Indiana remains stable, with no signs of deterioration in credit quality [19] - Management anticipates continued loan demand but acknowledges potential impacts from economic uncertainties on loan growth [14][19] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.17 per share, representing an annualized yield of 3.48% [8] - A stock repurchase program was renewed, authorizing the repurchase of up to $13.5 million in outstanding shares [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin inputs and funding costs - Management indicated there is still opportunity for margin expansion, expecting 4-5 basis points in the second quarter and 2-3 basis points in the third quarter [26][30] Question: Expense normalization and future investments - Management expects expenses to remain flat in the second quarter, with potential increases in the second half due to investments in technology and marketing [33][37] Question: Fee income outlook - Management anticipates a bounce back in fee income in the second quarter, particularly in mortgage and leasing [40][42] Question: Loan yield increase - The increase in loan yield was attributed to new loans repricing higher, with no unusual recoveries contributing to the increase [51] Question: Commercial borrowers' sentiment - Management noted a cautious sentiment among commercial borrowers regarding CapEx spending due to economic uncertainties [56][58] Question: Credit metrics and expectations - Management remains optimistic about credit quality, with delinquencies down and a healthy allowance for credit losses [83][84]

4月18日，江苏银行发布2024年年报，全年实现营收808亿，同比增长8.8%，归母净利润318亿，同比增长 10.8%。加权平均净资产收益率（ROAE）13.6%，同比下降0.9pct。 点评： 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 营收增长提速，业绩表现韧性强 2024年江苏银行营收、拨备前利润、归母净利润同比增速分别为8.8%、7.6%、10.8%，增速较1-3Q24分别 提升2.6、0.5、0.7pct，营收增长提速，盈利保持双位数增长。其中，净利息收入、非息收入增速分别为 6.3%、14.8%，较1-3Q24变动+4.8、-2.3pct。全年成本收入比、信用减值损失/营收分别为24.7%、22.7%， 同比分别提升0.7、0.4pct。拆分盈利增 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhangjiagang Bank reported a revenue of 4.71 billion with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% and net profit growth of 5.1%, showing resilience in performance [2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 11.05%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are -12.6% and 96.8%, respectively, indicating a significant recovery in non-interest income [2] Loan and Asset Growth - The growth rate of interest-earning assets and loans is 4% and 8%, respectively, showing a slight slowdown compared to the previous quarter [3] - New loans for the year totaled 10.2 billion, with a decrease in financial investments and interbank assets [3] - The bank's focus on corporate and retail loans remains strong, with corporate loans accounting for 53.2% of total loans [3] Deposit Trends - Deposit growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in total deposits [5] - The proportion of time deposits continues to rise, reaching 79.4% by year-end [5] - New deposits for the year totaled 10.1 billion, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year [5] Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for the year is 1.62%, showing a "L"-shaped trend with a decrease of 37 basis points year-on-year [6] - Non-interest income reached 1.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 97%, driven by bond trading [7][8] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stands at 0.94%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [9] - The bank's provision coverage ratio is 376%, maintaining a high level of risk buffer [9] Capital Adequacy - The core tier 1 capital ratio is 11.1%, reflecting an increase due to the conversion of convertible bonds [10] - The bank's risk-weighted assets (RWA) growth rate is 6.7%, showing a slowdown in asset expansion [10] Strategic Focus - The bank is focusing on the local market, particularly in personal business loans, and is expanding its presence in Suzhou, Wuxi, and Nantong [11] - The strategy aims to enhance loan growth and improve asset pricing [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) in personal business loans across major banks, indicating a potential crisis in the banking sector [2][12][29] - Four major state-owned banks announced a capital increase of 500 billion yuan to address the rising NPLs and bolster their core tier one capital ratios [4][29] - The article emphasizes that the increase in NPLs, particularly in personal business loans, is a result of the economic impact of the pandemic and the subsequent decline in real estate values [16][19][20] Group 2 - The data shows that the NPL ratios for personal business loans have surged significantly, with increases ranging from 34% to 67% among the major banks [11][12] - The capital increase is seen as a necessary step for banks like Postal Savings Bank and Bank of Communications, which have the lowest capital adequacy ratios among the six major banks [24][29] - The article suggests that while the capital injection is a positive move for the banking sector, it may lead to dilution of existing shareholders' equity, particularly affecting the stock prices of Postal Savings Bank and Bank of Communications [26][27] Group 3 - The article predicts that the A-H premium index will continue to revert towards its mean of 140%, with increased volatility expected in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in April [30] - The ongoing high leverage in the A-share market, coupled with low trading volumes, presents a contradiction that could impact market dynamics [29] - The article notes that the recent downturn in U.S. stocks has also affected Chinese concept stocks, indicating a shift in market sentiment and trading strategies [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of China Construction Bank (CCB) for the year 2024, highlighting a slight decline in revenue but an improvement in profit growth, alongside various operational metrics and trends [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - CCB reported a total revenue of 750.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 335.6 billion, with a growth rate of 0.9% [3]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) was 10.69%, down by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The revenue decline has narrowed, with profit growth accelerating; the year-on-year growth rates for revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit were -2.5%, -4%, and 0.9%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [4]. - The net interest income and non-interest income growth rates were -4.4% and 5.1%, respectively, with changes of +1.5 and -1.7 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [4]. Credit and Loan Growth - By the end of 2024, CCB's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 5.8% and 8.3% year-on-year, although these growth rates decreased by 2.9 and 0.5 percentage points compared to the end of the third quarter [5]. Deposit Trends - CCB experienced a 5.7% year-on-year growth in interest-bearing liabilities and a 3.7% growth in deposits, with changes of -3.8 and +1.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [6]. - The total new deposits for the year were 1 trillion, which was a decrease of 1.6 trillion compared to the previous year, influenced by regulatory adjustments and interest rate cuts [6]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The NIM for the year was 1.51%, down by 19 basis points from 2023, but the rate of decline has slowed down, indicating a potential stabilization [7]. Non-Interest Income - CCB's non-interest income reached 160.3 billion, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [8]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and attention rate were 1.34% and 1.89%, respectively, showing a decline of 1 basis point and 18 basis points from mid-year [9]. - The new NPLs for the year totaled 19.4 billion, which was a decrease of 13 billion year-on-year, indicating improved asset quality [9]. Capital Adequacy - By the end of 2024, CCB's core tier 1, tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios were 14.5%, 15.2%, and 19.7%, respectively, with increases of 38, 21, and 34 basis points from the end of the third quarter [10]. - The bank plans to distribute dividends of 100.75 billion, maintaining a payout ratio of 30% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed analysis of China Merchants Bank's 2024 annual report, highlighting the bank's performance in revenue, expenses, asset quality, and capital adequacy, while also noting challenges in net interest margin and fee income [3][21][23]. Revenue Analysis - The total operating income for 2024 was 337.49 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.48% [8]. - Net interest income was 211.28 billion, down 1.58% year-on-year, while fee income fell by 14.28% [8]. - Other non-interest income increased by 34.13% to 54.12 billion, indicating a strong performance in this segment [8]. Expense Analysis - Total expenses and other expenditures decreased by 2.76%, which was better than the analyst's expectation of a decline between 3.16% and 4.81% [4]. - Credit impairment losses for the year were 39.98 billion, slightly below the expected range of 40.3 billion to 42.3 billion [4]. Shareholder Analysis - The top ten shareholders saw a reduction in holdings by the Shanghai Stock Connect, which decreased by 54 million shares, maintaining a 5.04% stake [6]. - The number of shareholders dropped significantly from 522,100 to 459,200, indicating a 12% decline in retail investors [6]. Asset Analysis - Total assets reached 12,152.036 billion, growing by 10.19% year-on-year, with total loans amounting to 6,632.548 billion, a growth rate of 6.07% [14]. - The bank's retail loans maintained a 6% year-on-year growth despite a general slowdown in retail credit demand [14]. Non-Performing Loan Analysis - Non-performing loans increased to 65.61 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter [17]. - The migration rate of normal loans rose to 1.39%, indicating ongoing pressure on asset quality [17]. Capital Adequacy Analysis - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 14.86%, up from 14.73% in the previous quarter, primarily due to regulatory changes [19]. Summary of Key Issues - The bank faces challenges with the asset quality of retail loans, which has shown signs of deterioration [21]. - The net interest margin continues to be under pressure due to declining asset yields and weak credit demand [23].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS 102.2 billion, a 4% increase or ARS 3.5 billion higher than Q3 2024 [4] - The annualized return on average equity was ARS 7.5 and the return on average assets was ARS 2.4 [5] - For fiscal year 2024, net income was ARS 325.1 billion, a 70% decrease compared to fiscal year 2023 [5] - Total comprehensive income for fiscal year 2024 was ARS 227.7 billion, down 83% from fiscal year 2023 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net interest income in Q4 2024 was ARS 532.6 billion, a 13% decrease or ARS 82.2 billion lower than Q3 2024 [8] - Provision for loan losses in Q4 2024 totaled ARS 37.5 billion, a 50% increase or ARS 12.7 billion higher than Q3 2024 [6] - Net fee income in Q4 2024 was ARS 139.9 billion, a 6% increase or ARS 7.6 billion higher than Q3 2024 [12] - Income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value totaled ARS 134.9 billion in Q4 2024, a 21% increase compared to Q3 2024 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total financial loans reached ARS 5.8 trillion, an 18% increase or ARS 884.1 billion quarter on quarter and a 45% increase year on year [18] - Private sector deposits increased by 2% quarter on quarter, while public sector deposits decreased by 40% [20] - The nonperforming loans ratio reached 1.28%, with a coverage ratio of 158.81% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank aims to utilize its excess capital of ARS 2.8 trillion effectively, with a capital adequacy ratio of 32.4% [22] - The strategy includes increasing lending to the private sector, with an expected loan growth of 60% in real terms for 2025 [28] - The bank anticipates a decrease in the securities portfolio from 27% to around 20% of total assets by the end of 2025 [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expects GDP growth of 5.5% in 2025, with inflation projected at 25% [26] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to range from 12% to 15% in 2025, recovering from a challenging 2024 [28] - Cost of risk in 2025 is expected to be above 2%, potentially reaching 2.5% due to increased lending [30] Other Important Information - The effective income tax rate for fiscal year 2024 was 9.2%, significantly lower than the previous year's 32.7% [17] - The bank's liquidity remains strong, with a liquid assets to certain deposits ratio of 79% [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the macro expectations for interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, and FX for this year? - Management expects a GDP decline of 2% in 2024, with a growth forecast of 5.5% for 2025 and inflation around 25% [26][27] Question: What are the ROE expectations for this year and the drivers for earnings growth? - ROE is forecasted to be between 12% and 15% in 2025, driven by increased lending and improved economic conditions [28][29] Question: Can you elaborate on asset quality and cost of risk for 2025? - The cost of risk is expected to be above 2%, with a potential increase in nonperforming loans due to higher lending [30] Question: How do you expect the weight of securities to evolve in 2025? - The securities portfolio is expected to decrease to around 20% of total assets by the end of 2025, with loan growth primarily funded by deposit growth [38] Question: What is the strategy to compete for deposits in 2025? - The bank anticipates competition for deposits, with expected growth in peso deposits and a potential increase in interest rates [51] Question: Are there any upcoming management changes at the bank? - Management changes are anticipated, particularly regarding the new CEO, with announcements expected soon [59]