Market Analysis - 5月国内数据好坏参半，投资数据走弱，地产边际压力增加，出口承压，仅消费表现有韧性，6月制造业PMI有所回升但经济企稳基础需夯实 [2] - 6月中国央行连续第8个月增持黄金，外汇储备稳步提升 [2] - 关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能 [2] - 特朗普对14个国家发出关税税率威胁，签署行政命令延长“对等关税”暂缓期至8月1日，白宫官员称特定国家关税不叠加征收 [2][7] - 日本和韩国对美方决定表示“遗憾”，均愿通过谈判解决问题，特朗普称将与印度达成协议，欧盟与美国贸易磋商紧张进行，美财长拟与中方会谈 [2][7] - 特朗普发布清洁能源行政命令，授意财政部收紧相关税收制度 [2][7] Macro Inflation - 特朗普签署法案使美国政府债务未来十年或增3.4万亿美元，美国政策转向“易松难紧”阶段，国内中央财经委会议使市场通胀交易升温 [3] - 海外通胀预期受货币主导，美国6月非农数据超预期使美联储重启宽松不顺畅，国内通胀核心在供给侧，需更多行业压产细节政策确定通胀交易主线 [3] Commodity Sector - 7月2日100吨铜抵达香港仓库，7月15日起可用于LME合约交割，标志LME在中国内地周边建仓储网络进展 [4][7] - 国内供给侧敏感的是黑色和新能源金属板块，海外通胀预期受益显著的是能源和有色板块 [4] - 黑色板块受下游需求预期拖累，有色板块供给受限未缓解，能源短期地缘溢价结束，中期供给偏宽松，OPEC+8月增产54.8万桶/日 [4] - 农产品短期无天气扰动，波动空间有限 [4] Strategy - 工业品逢低多配 [5]

Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting will be held in July. In May, domestic data was mixed, with investment data weakening, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, and only consumption showed resilience. China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, but the foundation for economic stabilization needs to be consolidated. The central bank increased its gold holdings for the 8th consecutive month in June, and foreign exchange reserves increased steadily. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further policies to stabilize growth at the July Politburo meeting. Trump will send tariff letters on July 7 (ET), with new tariffs ranging from 10% - 70%, and the "tariffs effective on August 1" may imply a delay in the negotiation deadline [2]. Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, marking a shift from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to an "easy - to - loosen, hard - to - tighten" policy stage. The domestic Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting reignited market inflation trading. However, overseas, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and the Treasury's bond issuance will absorb market liquidity. In China, more detailed industry production - cut policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading, otherwise, the de - stocking cycle with weak demand will cause fluctuations [3]. Commodity Sectors - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a mid - term supply - abundant outlook. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating its strategy to regain market share. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations, and on July 7, spot gold fell by about $10, with an intraday decline of 1.15% [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [5]. Key News - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3174 trillion at the end of June, an increase of $32.2 billion from May, with an increase rate of 0.98%. Trump will send tariff letters and agreements on July 7 (ET), and the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1 for countries without agreements. The Kremlin is aware of Trump's remarks about imposing additional tariffs on BRICS countries [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - After the reduction of tariffs, the average effective tariff in the U.S. has decreased from over 20% to 12%, leading to a decrease in inflation and stagflation risks. Consequently, Bank of America (BofA) maintains its interest rate forecasts for 2025 unchanged [1] Interest Rate Predictions - BofA forecasts the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.75%, the 10-year yield at 4.5%, and the 30-year yield at 4.9% by the end of 2025 [1] Interest Rate Curve Strategy - The strategy is adjusted to recommend a "flattening" trade between December 2025 and December 2026, with a target shift from -34 basis points to -70 basis points. This is based on the reduced likelihood of rate cuts in 2025, expected further decline in inflation in 2026, and potential divergence in strategies under new Federal Reserve leadership [2] Duration Positioning - BofA maintains a slightly positive bias towards mid-duration (5-year) bonds, suggesting gradual accumulation of longer-duration positions as the market has previously overestimated recession risks and underestimated hard data support. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to stabilize in the range of 4.5% to 4.75% [3] Spread Outlook - The short-term outlook for spreads is neutral, while the long-term view is bearish on the 30-year spread due to fiscal deficits and supply pressures in U.S. Treasuries. The short-end (2-5 year) spreads remain neutral to slightly positive due to stable short-term financing conditions [4] Inflation Trading Strategy - The strategy is neutral on inflation trades, closing short positions on 1-year inflation while retaining long positions on 2-year and 3-year inflation, anticipating mid-term inflation to have upward potential, particularly relative to the Eurozone [5] Volatility Strategy - The volatility strategy leans towards short-term bullish and long-term conditional steepening, recommending a 6-month "costless" 2s10s lower bound volatility trade and a long-term "bear steepening" combination based on the 5s30s rate differential to address market repricing risks [5]

智通财经APP获悉，绿光资本掌门人戴维·艾因霍恩周三在纽约Sohn投资论坛上重申看涨黄金立场，直言这轮贵金属行情远未结束。这位以做空雷曼兄弟闻 名的对冲基金经理强调，黄金正成为衡量美元信用体系的"终极标尺"。 在公布对某德国化工企业新投资的同时，艾因霍恩强调其防御型投资组合包含三大支柱：黄金头寸、通胀对冲工具以及做空估值泡沫资产。 这种配置思路使其在近期市场动荡中逆势突围，也折射出机构投资者对宏观风险的警觉。随着美联储缩表进程受阻和财政赤字持续扩张，黄金的避险光芒或 将持续闪耀。 这位对冲基金大佬的黄金情结始于2008年金融危机。他指出，当前美国财政货币双宽松政策正将经济推向危险境地："两党在债务问题上的默契令人担忧 ——除非爆发新一轮危机，否则没人会真正动刀改革。"艾因霍恩特别抨击所谓"政府效率部"的节流计划纯属作秀，"相比联邦预算规模，那些拟削减开支连 零头都算不上"。 值得注意的是，艾因霍恩明确将黄金与通胀交易切割。他披露同时持有长期通胀掉期合约，押注物价上涨速度将持续超出市场预期。"所有非常规政策终将 推高通胀中枢，这个剧本正在上演。"他警告称，黄金的货币属性使其成为对冲纸币贬值的天然工具。 今年以来 ...