欧盟拟本周内立法取消美国工业品关税，以换取美国下调汽车关税。 8月27日周三，媒体援引知情人士消息透露，欧盟将力争在本周内加快立法程序，以取消对美国工业品 的所有关税，这是美国总统特朗普提出的条件，只有在欧盟先取消这些关税后，美国才会降低对欧盟汽 车出口的关税。 除了工业品，欧盟还计划给予美方部分海产品和农产品以优惠关税待遇。尽管这项贸易安排整体上对美 国更有利，但欧盟官员表示，为企业提供稳定、确定的经商环境更加重要。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩也 称这项协议是"一个坚实的协议，尽管并不完美"。 据央视新闻，目前欧盟汽车出口美国当前面临27.5%的高关税。而汽车是欧盟（尤其是德国）对美最重 要的出口商品之一，仅德国在2024年就向美国出口了价值349亿美元的新车和零部件。 尽管美欧已经达成了一项协议，美国将把几乎所有欧洲商品的关税降至15%，但特朗普表示，这项关税 下调不会适用于汽车，除非欧盟提出立法取消对美工业品等商品的关税。如果欧盟能在本月底前（即8 月31日前）提出取消关税的法案，那么美国将把15%的汽车关税（从原来的27.5%下调）追溯执行至8月 1日。 为了加快这个立法进程，欧盟委员会将跳过通常需要进行的 ...

葡萄酒出口未获关税豁免令法国和意大利生产商"极度失望"，两国对美葡萄酒出口在欧盟占比较 高。法国负责对外贸易的部长级代表洛朗·圣-马丁表示，"捍卫我们的出口行业仍是首要任务"，强调未 来仍有进一步谈判空间。 欧洲央行预计，欧美贸易协议会对欧元区整体经济增长带来冲击。同时，相关关税措施将波及全球 经济，可能带来中期通胀压力。 法国媒体指出，美国政府强行设定了不对等框架：欧盟需取消对美国产工业品的关税并为美农产品 提供优惠市场准入，以换取美国对大多数欧盟输美商品征收15%的关税。欧盟虽避免了贸易摩擦升级， 但代价是加深了对美依赖，其中包括未来3年计划从美国购买7500亿美元能源产品及400亿美元人工智能 芯片等。 比利时智库布鲁盖尔研究所研究员尼克拉斯·普瓦捷认为，这份跨大西洋贸易协议和去年相比"大大 恶化了双方贸易关系"，"在经贸层面堪称灾难"。 新华社巴黎8月24日电 综述｜欧洲多国认为对美贸易协议损害欧洲利益 新华社记者崔可欣 欧盟与美国日前公布双方在7月达成新贸易协议的具体细节。不少欧盟国家认为，协议虽部分缓解 了欧盟与美国的贸易紧张局势，带来一定程度的"稳定"，但进一步显示欧洲自主地位的脆弱性，也反映 ...

Group 1 - Industrial production shows divergence, with slight recovery in blast furnace operating rates, up 1.2% year-on-year [1][4] - Chemical production has declined, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 3.3 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1][11] - Construction industry shows mixed performance, with nationwide grinding operating rates down 3.9 percentage points to 6.2% [1][16] Group 2 - Real estate transactions have seen a rebound, with average daily transaction area for new homes up 20% year-on-year, although still weak [1][29] - Port cargo throughput continues to rise, with year-on-year increases of 5.2% for cargo and 6.3% for container throughput [1][34] - Passenger travel intensity has slightly increased, with the national migration scale index up 0.4 percentage points to 17.8% [1][39] Group 3 - Agricultural product prices show divergence, with egg and vegetable prices up 0.3% and 5.0% respectively, while pork and fruit prices are down 0.2% and 2.3% [2][56] - Industrial product prices have rebounded significantly, with the South China industrial product price index up 4.2% [2][63] - Energy and chemical price indices increased by 4.0% and metal price index by 4.1% [2][63]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows divergence, with a slight year-on-year increase in blast furnace operating rates of 1.2% [1][4] - Chemical production has declined, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 3.3 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1][11] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate remains below last year's level, down by 0.2 percentage points [1][11] Group 2: Construction Industry - Construction activity is mixed, with nationwide grinding operating rates down by 3.9 percentage points to 6.2% [1][16] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down by 2.6 percentage points to 3.0% [1][16] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points to 0.3% [1][16] Group 3: Downstream Demand - Real estate transactions have shown a slight recovery, with average daily transaction area for new homes down by 6.1% year-on-year, but still up by 20% compared to the previous week [1][29] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has increased, with cargo and container throughput up by 5.2 percentage points and 6.3 percentage points respectively [1][34] - Passenger travel intensity has slightly increased, with the national migration scale index up by 0.4 percentage points to 17.8% [1][39] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with egg and vegetable prices up by 0.3% and 5.0% respectively, while pork and fruit prices are down by 0.2% and 2.3% [2][56] - Industrial product prices have rebounded significantly, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index up by 4.2% [2][63] - Energy and chemical price indices have increased by 4.0% and 4.1% respectively [2][63] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - National railway and highway freight volumes have increased, with year-on-year growth of 0.1 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points respectively [1][34] - Port cargo throughput continues to rise, with significant increases in both cargo and container throughput [1][34] - The overall trend in logistics indicates a recovery in freight activity [1][34] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Cinema attendance has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 49.3% in viewer numbers [1][42] - Automotive sales show a mixed trend, with retail sales up by 2.2% while wholesale volumes are down by 17.8% [1][42] - The overall consumer spending environment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in entertainment sectors [1][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their rebound. The main reasons are the clarification of the external environment and the intensification of anti - involution policies, leading to an "anti - involution trading" in the market [3]. - In the overseas market, the US employment market continues to improve, but high - interest rates still suppress housing demand. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI has reached a new high, and the European Central Bank has paused rate cuts. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU has passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. - In the domestic market, the LPR remained unchanged in July, but there is a possibility of a decline in the second half of the year. Anti - involution policies are intensifying, causing a rise in the prices of black - series commodities and most industrial products. However, there is a short - term risk of over - heating market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Impact Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rose, driven by a clearer external environment and anti - involution policies [3]. - **Overseas**: The US employment market improved, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000. US existing - home sales decreased by 2.7% in June. The eurozone's July composite PMI reached 51. The US reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and the EU passed a counter - measure list [3]. - **Domestic**: The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% in July, remaining unchanged. Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, but there is a short - term risk of over - heating sentiment [3]. - **Commodities Viewpoint**: Although market risk appetite has improved, attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - European negotiations. Market sentiment may gradually return to rationality under regulatory guidance [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Employment**: In the third week of July, the number of initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 217,000, and the increase in continuing jobless claims slowed down [3]. - **US Housing Market**: In June, the annualized total of existing - home sales was 3.93 million, a 2.7% month - on - month decline, the largest in nearly a year [3][9]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The July composite PMI reached 51, a new 11 - month high. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts after 8 consecutive cuts since June 2024 [3][14]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **LPR**: The LPR remained unchanged in July, but there may be a decline in the second half of the year if economic downward pressure increases [3][22]. - **Market Situation**: Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, with black - series commodities and most industrial products rising in price [3]. - **Agricultural and Energy Sectors**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on the high - quality development of the pig industry, and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal mine production inspections [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The PTA开工率 was 80.69% on July 25, and the POY开工率 was 86.8% [36]. - **Automobile Sales**: Data shows the trends of manufacturer wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [39]. - **Commodity Prices**: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index, are presented [44].

美国发起关税战，是摆明了要敛财，因为加征关税会直接增加美国的财政收入，至于因为关税导致的物价上涨，美国共和党政府已经直接将责任推到了拜登 政府，美国共和党政府经常抨击拜登政府时期的政策，从而推卸所有的责任。从公开的数据来看，美国在2025年的物价上涨已经是一个不可逆转的趋势，显 然美国的进口商是要将成本转移到美国民众的头上。在美国试图通过关税战敲诈其他国家的时候，实际上对于美国的普通民众一点都不手软，显然美国是有 自己的如意算盘。 中国和美国有很大的贸易规模，中国从美国市场获得了巨大的贸易顺差，美国共和党政府试图通过关税来削弱中国产品的竞争力，同时减少美国对中国的贸 易逆差，美国有着许多的目标，并且扛出了"美国利益优先"的旗号。实际上美国共和党政府所作所为是在伤害美国普通民众的利益，最近美国通过的"预算 开支法案"就是牺牲了美国普通民众的利益，同时还给美国的富人阶层减税，如今美国财政部长已经将目光再次瞄准了美国普通民众的口袋。 中国反制了美国发动的关税战，面对中国的强硬立场，如今的美国已经感到了担忧，因为就贸易而言，如今的美国是更加的离不开中国。中国的工业产值已 经超过了美国，虽然美国的工业产值超过了G7集团 ...

Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting will be held in July. In May, domestic data was mixed, with investment data weakening, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, and only consumption showed resilience. China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, but the foundation for economic stabilization needs to be consolidated. The central bank increased its gold holdings for the 8th consecutive month in June, and foreign exchange reserves increased steadily. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further policies to stabilize growth at the July Politburo meeting. Trump will send tariff letters on July 7 (ET), with new tariffs ranging from 10% - 70%, and the "tariffs effective on August 1" may imply a delay in the negotiation deadline [2]. Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, marking a shift from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to an "easy - to - loosen, hard - to - tighten" policy stage. The domestic Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting reignited market inflation trading. However, overseas, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and the Treasury's bond issuance will absorb market liquidity. In China, more detailed industry production - cut policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading, otherwise, the de - stocking cycle with weak demand will cause fluctuations [3]. Commodity Sectors - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a mid - term supply - abundant outlook. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating its strategy to regain market share. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations, and on July 7, spot gold fell by about $10, with an intraday decline of 1.15% [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [5]. Key News - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3174 trillion at the end of June, an increase of $32.2 billion from May, with an increase rate of 0.98%. Trump will send tariff letters and agreements on July 7 (ET), and the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1 for countries without agreements. The Kremlin is aware of Trump's remarks about imposing additional tariffs on BRICS countries [2][6].

Core Points - Thailand is making concessions to the U.S. by offering greater market access for agricultural and industrial products, and committing to increase purchases of U.S. energy and Boeing aircraft to reach a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline to avoid a 36% tariff threat from the Trump administration [1][2] - The latest proposal aims to reduce Thailand's trade surplus with the U.S. by 70% over five years, significantly accelerating the timeline compared to a previous ten-year plan [1][3] - Neighboring countries like Vietnam and Cambodia have already reached agreements with the U.S., increasing pressure on Thailand to secure favorable trade terms [1][3] Group 1: Trade Concessions - Thailand's new proposal includes commitments to provide greater market access for U.S. agricultural and industrial products, and to increase imports of U.S. energy and Boeing aircraft [2][4] - The proposal allows for the immediate cancellation of most import tariffs or non-tariff barriers, with gradual easing of restrictions on a few products [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The urgency for Thailand to finalize a trade agreement stems from economic pressures, including high household debt and weak domestic consumption, which could be exacerbated by high tariffs [6] - A favorable trade agreement is seen as crucial for protecting Thailand's trade-dependent economy from further downturns and alleviating investor concerns over political instability [6]

Economic Performance - Industrial production shows seasonal weakness, with blast furnace operating rates down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 1.0%[1] - Infrastructure construction remains weak, with cement grinding rates down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6%[1] - Port cargo throughput related to exports increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices declined, with egg, fruit, and pork prices down by 1.5%, 1.3%, and 0.4% respectively[2] - Industrial product prices rebounded, with the South China Industrial Price Index up 3.1% month-on-month, and the energy and chemical price index up 5.6%[2][57] Market Demand - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities fell significantly, down 13.9 percentage points year-on-year to 5.1%[30] - Daily average new home transaction area in first-tier cities dropped sharply, down 38.3% year-on-year to 14.2%[30] - Shipping prices increased significantly, with the CCFI composite index rising by 8% month-on-month, and the West America route rates up 14.8%[45]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1% [2][5] - The chemical chain shows resilience, with soda ash operating rates increasing by 2.7 percentage points, while PTA and polyester filament operating rates are stable compared to the previous week [2][15] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has significantly decreased, down 4.4 percentage points to 6.7% year-on-year [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry is experiencing weak performance, with a slight year-on-year decline in grinding operating rates by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% [2][25] - Cement shipment rates have increased by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while asphalt operating rates have slightly risen by 0.8 percentage points to 4.3% [2][25] Group 3: Downstream Demand - New housing transactions have sharply declined, with average daily transaction area falling by 28.2% year-on-year [2][47] - Rail freight volume related to domestic demand has decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput and container throughput have also seen significant declines of 4% and 10.9% respectively [2][58] - The CCFI composite index has rebounded significantly, increasing by 3.3% month-on-month, with the West America route seeing a notable price increase of 9.6% [2][77] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and egg prices decreasing by 0.3% and 0.9% respectively, while vegetable and fruit prices have increased by 1.1% each [3][89] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.4% and metal prices down by 0.1% [3][100]