Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting weak performance in various sectors while noting some marginal improvements in construction and consumer activity. Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% to 81.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] - Steel apparent consumption has also decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 2.68% and a year-on-year drop of 2.4 percentage points to 1.2% [2] - Social inventory of steel continues to decline, down 2.9% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry - Cement production and demand show marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 38.9% [23] - Cement shipment rates decreased by 0.8% week-on-week to 44.4%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [23] - Cement inventory ratio continues to decline, down 1.9% week-on-week [23] Demand Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 24% week-on-week and 20.8 percentage points year-on-year [46] - The migration scale index remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points to 19.8% [58] - Movie attendance and box office revenue saw significant increases, with attendance up 322.0% year-on-year and revenue up 313.9% [64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally rising, with vegetable prices increasing by 2.1% week-on-week, while pork prices fell by 0.7% [88] - The South China industrial product price index rose by 1% week-on-week, with energy prices up 0.3% and metal prices up 1.7% [100]

Group 1: CPI Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1] - Food prices are a significant factor, with wholesale agricultural product prices rising by an average of 4.4% month-on-month in November, driven by lower supply and increased transportation costs [1] - The price of vegetables and fruits increased by 10.1% and 1.3% respectively due to seasonal factors, while pork and egg prices faced downward pressure, decreasing by 0.6% and 2.3% respectively [1][2] Group 2: Core CPI and Service Sector - The core CPI is expected to see a decline, influenced by a service sector business activity index of 49.5%, which is lower than the previous month [2] - The housing market is entering a traditional off-season, with average rental prices in 50 cities decreasing by 0.6% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year [2] Group 3: PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to rise by 0.2% month-on-month but decrease by 2.0% year-on-year [2][3] - Industrial product prices are generally declining, with notable decreases in glass prices by 7.1% and in coking coal and coke prices by 2.7% and 2.0% respectively [2] - Some industrial commodities like aluminum and copper saw slight increases of 1.3% and 1.0% month-on-month [2]

省贸促会相关负责人介绍，此次对接会将邀请中国服务贸易协会、中国跨境电商50人论坛、境内外跨境电商头部企业等代表出席，鄂州市政府做跨境电商产 业推介，重要嘉宾将聚焦如何发挥鄂州花湖机场全球第四、亚洲第一的独特枢纽优势，如何实现中国（鄂州）跨境电商综合试验区作为全球跨境商品集散地 的功能地位，以"1+1"的双重优势有效提升湖北支点开放辐射能力等主题作主旨演讲。 此次对接会设"鄂品出境"和"鄂汇天下"两大展区，"鄂品出境"展区将展示湖北生产的工业品、服装、玩具、家居、美容、医疗等近30类、超400种产品，助 力湖北特色产业与全球市场精准对接；"鄂汇天下"展区将汇聚通过花湖机场国际航线进口的东南亚榴莲、南美红酒、非洲咖啡豆等全球商品，通过国内电商 平台打开中国市场，实现鄂产精品与全球好货的双向奔赴。 湖北日报讯（记者李朝霞、通讯员沈贸轩）12月5日，湖北（鄂州）跨境电商招商选品对接会将在鄂州举办。活动由湖北省贸促会和鄂州市人民政府联合主 办，预计将吸引Shopee、阿里巴巴、敦煌网、希音、沃尔玛等10余家跨境电商头部平台，顺丰、新蛋、农行、交行等近40家物流、金融、海外仓等服务企 业，各省跨境电商协会、跨境电商综试区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Chile and the UAE has officially come into effect, marking a significant breakthrough in Chile's global trade expansion [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - CEPA is the first trade agreement signed by Chile with a Middle Eastern country, highlighting Chile's strategic move to diversify its economic partnerships [1] - The agreement was signed during President Boric's visit to the Middle East on July 29, 2024, in Abu Dhabi [1] - Approximately 98% of Chile's export products and 99.5% of imported goods will benefit from phased tariff reductions, covering various trade categories including agricultural and industrial products [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The agreement is expected to expand export opportunities for Chile, enhance investment attractiveness, and promote economic diversification [1] - CEPA includes 21 chapters, addressing topics such as women's economic empowerment (a first for the UAE), global value chain cooperation (Chile's first such agreement outside Latin America), and support for small and medium-sized enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate decreased to 72.72% from 73.14%, a change of -0.42%[7] - The blast furnace operating rate fell to 81.73% from 84.73%, a decrease of -3%[7] - The PX operating rate increased to 87.93% from 86.33%, an increase of 1.60%[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to 20,900,000 CNY from 26,200,000 CNY, a decline of 5,300,000 CNY[7] - Daily average retail sales of passenger cars increased to 71,381.65 units from 70,552.8 units, an increase of 828.85 units[7] - Daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars rose to 89,279.50 units from 87,047.80 units, an increase of 2,231.70 units[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased to 198.27 million square meters from 199.93 million square meters, a decline of 1.65%[7] - The transaction area of second-hand housing in major cities fell to 213,745.29 square meters from 231,164.61 square meters, a decrease of 17,419.32 square meters[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities slightly decreased to 3.89% from 3.93%, a change of -0.04%[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose to 1,550.70 from 1,403.46, an increase of 147.24[8] - The average wholesale price of pork increased to 17.8 CNY/kg from 17.73 CNY/kg, a rise of 0.07 CNY[8] - The average wholesale price of vegetables increased to 5.69 CNY/kg from 5.37 CNY/kg, an increase of 0.32 CNY[8] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing increased to 1,047.78 million trips from 1,042.37 million trips, an increase of 5.41 million trips[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 12,374.71 from 12,897.71, a decline of 523 flights[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries. Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year with a 2.6% increase compared to the previous week [4][5] - Steel apparent consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [6][11] - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [11] Sector Performance - The petrochemical and consumer sectors showed improvement, with soda ash operating rates stable at 84.9%, and a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11] - PTA operating rate increased by 0.4% to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate improved by 1% to 73.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point to -5.7% [11] Construction Industry - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with grinding operating rates up 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points to -4.8% [21][22] - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points to -9.3% [21][24] - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased by 1.2% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points to 0.7% [21] Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a 5.7% week-on-week drop in average daily transaction area [40] - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with a 19.6% rise in truck traffic [44][49] - Passenger car retail sales remained high, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59] Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week, while fruit, pork, and egg prices decreased [74] - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China industrial price index rising by 0.4% week-on-week [82][83]

Core Insights - Uzbekistan's foreign trade volume reached $51.4 billion from January to August 2025, an increase of $8.489 billion compared to the same period in 2024, representing a growth rate of 19.8% [1] Trade Overview - Exports amounted to $22.982 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 31.3% [1] - Imports totaled $28.454 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [1] - The trade deficit stood at $5.472 billion [1] Major Trade Partners - China remains Uzbekistan's largest trading partner, accounting for 18.9% of total foreign trade [1] - Other significant partners include Russia (16.1%), Kazakhstan (5.9%), Turkey (3.7%), and South Korea (2.2%) [1] Export Composition - In the first half of the year, goods exports were $17.282 billion, making up 75.2% of total exports, while services exports were $5.708 billion, accounting for 24.8% [1] - The top three categories for goods exports were industrial products (11.1%), food (7.8%), and chemicals (5.9%) [1] - For services, the leading sectors were tourism (53.6%), transportation (32.0%), and telecommunications, computer, and information services (7.9%) [1] Import Composition - Goods imports reached $25.529 billion, representing 89.7% of total imports, while services imports were $2.925 billion, making up 10.3% [2] - The primary categories for goods imports were machinery and transport equipment (33.8%), industrial products (16.1%), and chemicals (12.6%) [2] - In services, the main sectors were tourism (56.8%), transportation (18.0%), and telecommunications and information services (9.7%) [2]

Group 1 - The new demands from the U.S. government may undermine a recently reached trade agreement with the EU, which had previously eased tensions between the allies [1] - The U.S. has proposed a new trade proposal aimed at achieving "reciprocal, fair, and balanced" trade, but EU officials view these demands as excessive [1] - The U.S. is seeking discussions on EU legislation, including digital and technology rules, while the EU insists on maintaining regulatory autonomy [1] Group 2 - In return for concessions, the EU has submitted legislation to lower tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and some non-sensitive agricultural products, pending approval from the European Parliament [2] - Discussions regarding the reduction of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum have made little progress, with the EU planning to impose tariffs on foreign steel imports exceeding certain quotas [2] - Concerns have been raised that the U.S. is expanding the list of products subject to the 50% tariff, potentially affecting medical devices and technology, which could weaken the EU's hard-won 15% tariff cap [2]

Group 1 - The "China Industrial Products No False Marking" initiative was launched on September 25, aiming to address the issue of false marking in the industrial products sector [1][4] - The initiative encourages collaboration among various stakeholders, including government, media, platforms, and enterprises, to combat false marking and promote high-quality industrial development [5] Group 2 - Zhou Pingjun, former deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Small and Medium Enterprises Development Promotion Center, emphasized that false marking distorts market mechanisms and hinders long-term industry growth [3] - Liu Bin, deputy secretary-general of the China Electrical Equipment Industry Association, noted that while the overall quality of the wire and cable industry is internationally leading, some small and medium enterprises compromise quality for low-price competition [3] Group 3 - JD Industrial aims to enhance product quality and improve customer procurement experiences by establishing a win-win cooperation model with brand owners, avoiding vicious low-price competition [3][4] - JD Industrial has committed to implementing a comprehensive quality control system, including a tenfold compensation policy for false-marked products and strict supplier management [4] Group 4 - The initiative includes activities such as public education on false marking, exposure of false-marked products, and recognition of quality enterprises to foster a culture of authenticity in the industry [4][5] - The initiative also seeks to recruit professional engineers to participate in the identification of false-marked products and the recommendation of quality products, forming a "No False Marking Engineer Team" [4]