Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [12]. Core Viewpoints - The recent market focus on the upper limit of bank stock valuations is less important than the investment logic, which suggests that 1x PB and a 4% dividend yield do not constitute valuation constraints [2][6]. - The core investment logic for bank stocks is based on policy support for maintaining major risk thresholds, which supports stable earnings and dividends [6][8]. - The report categorizes bank stocks into two types: state-owned banks, which are seen as bond-like assets with stable earnings, and high ROE city commercial banks, which are expected to have significant valuation upside [7][9]. Summary by Sections Valuation Discussion - The report argues that traditional frameworks using PB and dividend yield to discuss valuations are inadequate, as the absolute valuation levels for bank stocks have been very low historically [6]. - The average dividend yield for state-owned banks is approximately 3.94% in A-shares and 5.08% in H-shares, with the ten-year government bond yield at around 1.6% [8]. - If government bond yields decline further, it could lead to an increase in the valuations of state-owned banks and a decrease in dividend yields [8]. Performance of Different Bank Types - State-owned banks are characterized as bond-like assets where the dividend yield and government bond yield spread are key pricing factors [8]. - High ROE city commercial banks, such as Hangzhou Bank and Chengdu Bank, are expected to maintain a ROE of around 15% over the next three years, indicating significant undervaluation at 1x PB [9][10]. - The report highlights that the average ROE for stable industries is about 12.1%, with a PB valuation of around 2x, suggesting that banks with ROE above 10% have substantial room for valuation recovery [9]. Economic Context and Growth Potential - The macroeconomic environment is shifting, with major economic provinces showing credit growth that outpaces national averages, providing growth opportunities for leading city commercial banks [10]. - The report emphasizes that city commercial banks have better asset quality and resilience in earnings due to their client structure, which contributes to their high ROE [10][21].

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) has seen its stock price surge over 40% since April's low, reaching a historical high, driven by multiple favorable factors [1] - Baird analysts downgraded JPMorgan's rating from "Neutral" to "Underperform," citing that market expectations have become overly inflated and the stock's valuation is overstretched [1] - The analysts acknowledged JPMorgan as the "gold standard" in the industry, with leading market share and a strong balance sheet, but emphasized that market expectations are at excessively high levels [1] Group 2 - The KBW Bank Index has rebounded over 30% since early April, while regional banks have only increased by 18%, remaining below their yearly highs [2] - Baird also downgraded Bank of America (BAC.US) from "Outperform" to "Neutral," stating that its stock price has reached fair value [2] - The Federal Reserve is set to announce the annual bank stress test results, with JPMorgan expected to release its quarterly earnings on July 15 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares has reached a historic high with a total market capitalization surpassing 10 trillion yuan, driven by a series of monetary easing policies from the central bank, leading to increased investor interest and stock price surges in various banks [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Agricultural Bank of China have seen significant market capitalizations of 1.95 trillion yuan and 1.8 trillion yuan respectively, contributing to the overall growth of the banking sector [1]. - The banking sector index has shown a strong performance, with a 3-day consecutive increase and an 8.71% rise over the past 20 trading days, placing it among the top-performing sectors [1][2]. Group 2: Institutional Investment - Institutional funds, including insurance capital and central Huijin, have increasingly invested in the banking sector, with central Huijin heavily investing in eight major bank stocks, indicating a shift towards seeking stable returns [2][5]. - The net inflow of northbound funds into the banking sector exceeded 50 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting the sector's appeal during market downturns [5]. Group 3: Investment Attractiveness - The banking sector is characterized by low valuations, with an average price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 0.6, indicating a high margin of safety for investors [3]. - High dividend yields, with major banks like ICBC and China Construction Bank offering yields over 5%, make the sector attractive for income-seeking investors [4]. - The banking sector benefits from strong policy support and stable fundamentals, particularly under the current favorable monetary policies, which are expected to enhance profitability and asset quality [5]. Group 4: ETF Options - The market offers various banking ETFs, including the comprehensive CSI Bank Index ETF, which includes all listed banks, providing a diversified investment option [6]. - The CSI Bank AH Price Selection Index focuses on banks listed in both A and H shares, allowing for cross-market arbitrage opportunities [7]. - The CSI 800 Bank Index selects top-performing banks, providing a more concentrated investment strategy [8]. Group 5: Valuation Insights - Research indicates that the banking sector remains undervalued, with PB and PE ratios ranking among the lowest across industries, suggesting potential for upward correction in valuations [11].

…… 今天所有我之前看北向数据的渠道，都停止更新了，所以昨晚的新闻我没有读错，北向资金的流入流出明细从8月19日起，从每日公布改为每个季度公 布。 北向自2014年开通以来，连续9年净流入，历史最巅峰的时候外资累计净流入接近2万亿。转折出现在去年8月，外资整体买少卖多，到了2024年的前8个 月，更是首次出现年度净流出。 由于北向外资的数据有较大的影响力，之前监管就做过一次调整，把原先盘中实时更新的数据改为收盘后更新，现在又改了，以后是每个季度看一次。 怎么说呢，任何事情都有积极的一面，我看《投名状》电影的时候有一幕印象很深，刘德华骑马冲击敌阵之前，掏出一块黑布把马的眼睛蒙住，这样马看 不见前面的长枪，冲锋的时候就会一往无前。 现在马已经就位，就差个刘德华了。 昨晚的文章发出后有网友提醒我内容里和《黑神话悟空》、华谊兄弟有关的部分有误。 我去搜了一下，确实彼此之间的股权信息有更新。首先是华谊兄弟在2021年就卖掉了大半的英雄互娱股份，只剩下5%左右；其次是英雄互娱在2022年作 价4.8亿出售了所有的游戏科学公司股份（《黑神话》游戏开发商）。 比较奇怪的是这4.8亿的转让款，2022年已经收到2.8亿，剩下的 ...