作者 | 刘银平编辑 | 付影 来源 | 独角金融 春节前夕，华宝基金一则人事变动引发市场关注：任职近20年、担任基金经理超13年的指数投资总监胡 洁，一次性卸任在管全部16只产品。这次"清仓式"离任之所以引人注目，不仅因其资历深厚，更在于管 理规模高达1013.62亿元——占据公司指数基金总规模的一半以上，堪称华宝ETF时代的"关键推手"。 作为以ETF产品为主的指数基金经理，胡洁在任期间曾推动公司ETF规模快速扩张。然而，与其规模贡 献形成鲜明对比的是业绩表现：卸任前，她所管产品的近一年整体回报为9.33%，明显跑输同期沪深 300指数逾20%的涨幅。 胡洁的离任，让华宝基金长期以来在权益基金方面的"冰火两重天"结构性困局再次浮出水面。ETF赛道 是华宝的亮点，公司起步较早，近年来在被动产品上持续发力，截至2025年末，非货ETF规模已达 1278.77亿元，同比增长56.38%。正是在ETF的强力拉动下，华宝基金整体管理规模终于在2025年三季 度末突破4000亿元，结束了三年的规模停滞期。 但被动产品的风光背后，主动权益基金则显得格外沉寂。近两年，华宝主动权益基金管理规模多在200 亿元以下徘徊，20 ...

华宝中证沪港深新消费指数A/C成立于2023年04月11日，截至2026年02月13日，其今年来收益率 为-0.14%、-0.17%，成立来收益率为30.40%、29.21%，累计净值为1.3040元、1.2921元。 华宝中证科创创业50ETF联接A/C成立于2021年08月25日，截至2026年02月13日，其今年来收益率 为0.84%、0.79%，成立来收益率为8.50%、7.04%，累计净值为1.0850元、1.0704元。 华宝券商ETF成立于2016年08月30日，截至2026年02月13日，其今年来收益率为-3.28%，成立来收 益率为12.06%，累计净值为1.1206元。 华宝医疗ETF联接A/C成立于2015年05月21日和2021年05月13日，截至2026年02月13日，其今年来 收益率为3.68%、3.66%，成立来收益率为-60.91%、-56.51%，累计净值为0.4702元、0.6083元。 华宝中证医疗ETF成立于2019年05月20日，截至2026年02月13日，其今年来收益率为3.86%，成立 来收益率为5.73%，累计净值为1.0575元。 华宝券商ETF联接A/C成立 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or products discussed [1]. Core Insights - The total scale of the fixed income + funds market reached 23,558.32 billion, with 1,164 products, and 108 of these reached historical net value highs last week [2][20]. - The performance of various fund types showed divergence, with median returns for mixed bond funds (primary and secondary) at -0.08%, and flexible allocation funds at -0.03%, while bond FOFs and mixed FOFs had median returns of 0.26% and 0.35% respectively [2][13]. - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a slowdown, with the CSI 300 index and other indices showing returns of 1.65% and 0.39% respectively as of January 31, 2026 [3][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Fixed Income + Product Performance Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the total number of fixed income + funds was 1,164, with a total scale of 23,558.32 billion [10]. - Last week, 6 new products were launched, and the median performance of various fund types was as follows: mixed bond type primary (-0.08%), secondary (-0.08%), and flexible allocation (-0.03%) [13][14]. - The conservative, stable, and aggressive fund median returns were 0.01%, -0.12%, and -0.12% respectively [13]. 2. Major Asset Allocation and Industry ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 is a slowdown, with the CSI 300 index yielding 1.65% and the total wealth index of government bonds yielding 0.39% [3][23]. - The recommended industry ETFs for January 2026 include coal, steel, securities companies, and banking ETFs, with a combined return of 0.88% last week [3]. 3. Absolute Return Strategy Performance Tracking - The stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.05% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy yielded 0.04% [4]. - The small-cap value strategy showed the highest performance with a year-to-date return of 2.60%, while the combined strategy with macro momentum yielded a cumulative return of 3.82% [4].

- The report introduces a **macro timing model** for asset allocation, which predicts macroeconomic environments using proxy variables and selects optimal asset classes for absolute return portfolios. For Q1 2026, the model forecasts a "Slowdown" environment, with returns of 1.65% for CSI 300, 9.13% for CNI 2000, 8.61% for Nanhua Commodity Index, and 0.39% for ChinaBond Total Treasury Wealth Index[23][30] - A **macro momentum model** is constructed for monthly timing signals, considering factors such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment. This model is used for timing equities, bonds, and other major asset classes. Additionally, a multi-cycle gold timing strategy is built using macro, position, volume-price, and sentiment factors. For January 2026, the returns are 1.65% for CSI 300, 0.39% for ChinaBond Total Treasury Wealth Index, and 19.59% for AU9999 contract[23][30] - The **industry ETF rotation strategy** is based on a multi-factor model that incorporates historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, volume-price technicals, and macroeconomic factors. The strategy matches ETFs with their corresponding industry indices and selects ETFs from a benchmark pool of 23 first-level industries. For January 2026, the recommended ETFs include Guotai CSI Coal ETF, Guotai CSI Steel ETF, Guotai CSI All Securities ETF, and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, each with an initial weight of 25%[24][27][28] - The **20/80 stock-bond rebalancing strategy** driven by macro timing achieved a weekly return of 0.05% and a YTD return of 0.56%. The **stock-bond risk parity strategy** achieved a weekly return of 0.04% and a YTD return of 0.47%. When combined with the industry ETF rotation strategy, the enhanced 20/80 rebalancing strategy achieved a weekly return of 0.29% and a YTD return of 0.89%, while the enhanced risk parity strategy achieved a weekly return of 0.13% and a YTD return of 0.55%[4][30][33] - The **stock-bond-gold risk parity strategy** achieved a weekly return of 0.26% and a YTD return of 1.28%, with an annualized volatility of 2.96%, a maximum drawdown of 0.49%, and a Sharpe ratio of 6.90[4][30][35] - The **quantitative fixed-income plus strategy** includes stock-bond rebalancing models with different configurations. For the 10/90 monthly rebalancing strategy, the small-cap value style achieved a YTD return of 1.38%, while the small-cap growth style achieved 1.02%. For the 20/80 monthly rebalancing strategy, the small-cap value style achieved a YTD return of 2.60%, while the small-cap growth style achieved 1.88%. When combined with macro timing, the 20/80 monthly rebalancing strategy achieved a YTD return of 3.82% for the small-cap value style and 2.73% for the small-cap growth style. The 20/80 quarterly rebalancing strategy based on counter-cyclical allocation achieved a YTD return of 1.38% for the PB earnings + small-cap value combination and 1.02% for the PB earnings + small-cap growth combination[4][37][40]

Performance Overview - As of January 23, 2026, the total scale of fixed income + funds reached CNY 21,780.36 billion, with 1,157 products available, of which 824 achieved historical net value highs last week[2] - The median performance of various fund types for the week (January 19-23, 2026) was as follows: mixed bond type I (0.26%), type II (0.47%), partially bond mixed (0.56%), flexible allocation (0.37%), bond type FOF (0.42%), and mixed type FOF (0.63%) [2] Asset Allocation and Strategy - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a slowdown, with the Shanghai Composite Index, China Government Bond Index, and gold contract AU9999 yielding 1.57%, 0.36%, and 14.08% respectively for January[3] - The recommended industry ETFs for January 2026 include coal, steel, securities companies, and banking sectors, with a weekly return of 1.77% and a cumulative return of 1.41% for the month[3] Absolute Return Strategies - The stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.00% last week, with a year-to-date (YTD) return of 0.51%, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy returned 0.13% last week (YTD 0.43%) [4] - The small-cap value strategy within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed a notable YTD return of 2.95%, while the cumulative return for the small-cap value strategy with macro momentum model reached 4.36%[4] Risk Assessment - Risks identified include factor failure risk, model mis-specification risk, and historical statistical regularity failure risk[5] High-Performing Products - A total of 824 fixed income + products reached historical net value highs, categorized by risk type: conservative (443), balanced (143), and aggressive (238) [19] - Top-performing products include: - Guangfa Jiajia A with a 9.88% increase over the past year[20] - Qianhai Kaiyuan Yuyuan with a 57.69% increase over the past year[20]

Group 1 - The report indicates that as of January 23, 2026, the total scale of fixed income + funds in the market reached 21,780.36 billion, with 1,157 products, and 824 of them achieved historical net value highs last week [2][18] - The performance median of various fund types for the week of January 19-23, 2026, showed differentiation: mixed bond type I (0.26%), II (0.47%), and other types [14][16] - The conservative, stable, and aggressive fund median returns were 0.32%, 0.47%, and 0.59% respectively [14][16] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a slowdown, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, the total wealth index of government bonds, and the AU9999 contract yielding 1.57%, 0.36%, and 14.08% respectively [3] - The industry ETF rotation strategy for January 2026 suggests focusing on coal, steel, securities, and banking ETFs, with a weekly return of 1.77% and a cumulative return of 1.41% for the month [3][4] Group 3 - The mixed stock-bond strategy's performance showed a 0.00% return for the week, with a year-to-date return of 0.51%, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy yielded 0.13% for the week and 0.43% year-to-date [4] - The small-cap value style in the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed best with a year-to-date return of 2.95%, while the PB earnings, high dividend, and small-cap growth strategies yielded 1.08%, 0.78%, and 2.31% respectively [4][10]

Fund Performance - As of January 16, 2026, the total scale of fixed income + funds in the market reached CNY 21,743.24 billion, with 1,152 products available, of which 461 achieved historical net value highs last week[2] - The median performance of various fund types for the week (January 12-16, 2026) was as follows: mixed bond type I (0.13%), mixed bond type II (0.21%), partially bond mixed type (0.28%), flexible allocation type (0.14%), bond type FOF (0.21%), and mixed type FOF (0.34%) [2] - The median returns by risk level were: conservative (0.16%), stable (0.24%), and aggressive (0.25%) [2] Asset Allocation and ETF Rotation - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a "Slowdown," with the returns of major indices as of January 16, 2026: CSI 300 (2.20%), China Government Bond Total Wealth Index (0.03%), and AU9999 contract (6.10%) [3] - The recommended industry ETFs for January 2026 include: China Coal ETF, China Steel ETF, China Securities Company ETF, and China Bank ETF, with a combined return of -2.65% for the week and -0.36% for January [3] Absolute Return Strategy - The macro-timed stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded a return of -0.04% last week, with a year-to-date (YTD) return of 0.51% [4] - The small-cap value style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the best performance with a YTD return of 1.64%, while PB earnings, high dividend, and small-cap growth yielded 0.34%, 0.17%, and 1.23% respectively [4] - The cumulative return for the small-cap value combination based on a macro momentum model was 2.43%, while the PB earnings combined with small-cap value yielded a YTD return of 0.86% [4] Risk and Performance Insights - A total of 461 fixed income + products reached historical net value highs, including 195 mixed bond type I, 123 mixed bond type II, 80 partially bond mixed, 22 flexible allocation, 8 bond type FOF, and 33 mixed type FOF[19] - The performance of absolute return strategies is subject to risks such as factor failure, model mis-specification, and historical statistical regularity failure[4]

Group 1: Fixed Income + Product Performance Tracking - As of January 16, 2026, the total scale of fixed income + funds in the market reached 21,743.24 billion, with 1,152 products, of which 461 achieved historical net value highs last week [2][19] - The median performance of various fund types for the week of January 12-16, 2026, was as follows: mixed bond type I (0.13%), mixed bond type II (0.21%), partially bond mixed type (0.28%), flexible allocation type (0.14%), bond type FOF (0.21%), and mixed type FOF (0.34%) [2][12] - The median returns for conservative, stable, and aggressive funds were 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.25%, respectively [2][12] Group 2: Major Asset Allocation and Industry ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a "Slowdown," with the returns for the CSI 300, national bond total wealth index, and AU9999 contract as of January 16 being 2.20%, 0.03%, and 6.10%, respectively [3][23] - Recommended industry ETFs for January 2026 include: Guotai CSI Coal ETF, Guotai CSI Steel ETF, Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, and Huabao CSI Bank ETF [3][23] - The combined return for the recommended ETFs last week was -2.65%, with a cumulative return of -0.36% for January [3][23] Group 3: Absolute Return Strategy Performance Tracking - The macro-timing driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy had a return of -0.04% last week, with a year-to-date (YTD) return of 0.51% [4] - The small-cap value style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the best performance with a YTD return of 1.64% [4] - The cumulative return for the small-cap value combination based on a macro momentum model was 2.43% [4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond rebalancing strategy of 10/90 and 20/80, projecting cumulative returns of 6.80% and 12.44% by 2025 respectively [1] - As of December 26, 2025, the total market size of fixed income plus funds reached 21,730.41 billion, with 1,147 products, and 233 of these funds achieved historical net value highs last week [2][18] - The report highlights that 25 new products were launched last week, with median performance across various fund types showing divergence, such as mixed bond type I (0.09%), mixed bond type II (0.29%), and flexible allocation type (0.31%) [2][14] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index yielding 2.88% since December, while the total wealth index of government bonds yielded -0.10% [3] - The report recommends focusing on specific industry ETFs for December 2025, including Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, with a combined return of 3.08% last week [3] - The absolute return strategy performance tracking indicates that the stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.45% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy yielded 0.28% [4] Group 3 - The report details that the small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed exceptionally well, achieving a year-to-date return of 12.44% [4] - The report also notes that the conservative, balanced, and aggressive fund median returns were 0.14%, 0.27%, and 0.39% respectively for the week ending December 26, 2025 [2][14] - The absolute return strategy performance tracking shows that the combined strategy of stock-bond and industry ETF rotation yielded returns of 0.68% and 0.31% respectively last week [4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond 10/90 and 20/80 monthly rebalancing strategy, projecting cumulative returns of 6.36% and 11.56% by 2025 [1] - As of December 19, 2025, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 21,722.64 billion, with 1,148 products, and 99 of these funds reached historical net asset value highs last week [2][9] - The report highlights that 13 new products were launched last week, with median performance across various fund types being relatively close, including mixed bond type I (0.08%), mixed bond type II (0.09%), and flexible allocation type (0.13%) [2][16] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index, the total wealth index of government bonds, and the AU9999 contract yielding 0.92%, -0.20%, and 2.88% respectively since December [3] - The industry ETF rotation strategy for December 2025 recommends focusing on specific ETFs, including Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, with a combined return of 0.64% last week [3] - The report notes that the macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.01% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy achieved a return of 0.04% [4] Group 3 - The small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the best performance with a year-to-date return of 11.56%, while PB earnings, high dividend, and small-cap value strategies yielded 4.68%, 4.30%, and 10.56% respectively [4] - The report indicates that the cumulative return for the small-cap growth portfolio, adjusted for timing strategies, reached 13.01%, while the PB earnings combined with small-cap growth strategy yielded a year-to-date return of 4.68% [4]