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小摩:升速腾聚创(02498)评级至“增持” 目标价上调至53港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-11 05:51
智通财经APP获悉,摩根大通发布研报称,将速腾聚创(02498)投资评级由"中性"升至"增持",目标价由 28.6港元大升至53港元,相当于未来一年预测市销率5倍。除了中国新能源汽车中ADAS及LiDAR加快采 用外,小摩注意到包括机器人割草机、无人驾驶出租车和物流机器人在内的各种机器人应用对LiDAR的 强劲需求。基于其数字化LiDAR平台,速腾聚创在ADAS和机器人领域均获得了增量设计订单,并提高 了利润率,预计这将推动出货量加速增长,并在2026年实现正净利润。同时,小摩认为,鉴于更广泛的 LiDAR应用前景和未来更多上行空间,速腾聚创值得估值重估。 小摩预计,LiDAR需求在2025、2027、2030年将达到310万、690万、1,210万单位,渗透率分别为 20%、33%、44%(今年第二季:18%)。此外,小摩看到来自机器人市场的强劲需求,例如机器人割草机 (速腾聚创从单一客户获得120万单位的重大订单,相较于2024年机器人LiDAR出货量2.4万单位)、无人 驾驶出租车、物流机器人和矿用卡车。 小摩预计速腾聚创将获得更多设计订单,并预计2025至2027年LiDAR总出货量为83.6万、18 ...
小摩:升速腾聚创评级至“增持” 目标价上调至53港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 05:51
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley upgraded the investment rating of SUTENG JUCHUANG (02498) from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from HKD 28.6 to HKD 53, implying a projected price-to-sales ratio of 5 times for the next year [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Growth Projections - The demand for LiDAR is expected to reach 3.1 million, 6.9 million, and 12.1 million units by 2025, 2027, and 2030, with penetration rates of 20%, 33%, and 44% respectively, compared to 18% in Q2 of this year [1] - The company is anticipated to secure more design orders, with total LiDAR shipments projected at 836,000, 1.8 million, and 2.8 million units from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 74%, with approximately 30% of shipments coming from the robotics sector [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Profitability - The comprehensive gross margin is expected to stabilize around 28% from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 187 million and RMB 493 million for 2026 and 2027 respectively [2] - The total revenue for SUTENG JUCHUANG is estimated to be RMB 3.2 billion and RMB 4.7 billion for 2026 and 2027, with the robotics sector contributing 36% and 33% to the total revenue [2]
中国智能驾驶芯片:助力汽车智能化 -对地平线和黑芝麻智能的首次覆盖--China Smart Driving Chip_ Powering Auto Intelligence - Initiation with OP on Horizon Robotics and UP on Black Sesame
2025-09-04 15:08
Summary of the Conference Call on China Smart Driving Chip Sector Industry Overview - The smart driving chip market in China is projected to reach USD 15.4 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 40% from 2025 to 2030, driven by the increasing adoption of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) features [2][34] - The penetration of Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) features is expected to reach 88% by 2030, creating a significant market opportunity for smart driving chips [2][12] Key Companies Discussed Horizon Robotics - Horizon Robotics is positioned as the domestic leader in smart driving System on Chip (SoC), with a projected 23% vehicle share for L1-L2 SoC and 30% for L2+ SoC in 2024 [3] - The company is expected to capture 29% of the outsourced L2+ & above SoC TAM by value by 2030, supported by its unique hardware-software integrated model [3][14] - Horizon's SoC design is co-optimized with smart driving algorithms, allowing for lower costs and faster iterations, potentially increasing OEM net income by 10-20% on a RMB 150K vehicle [3] - Horizon Robotics is rated Outperform with a price target of HKD 15, indicating a 56% upside potential [3][8] Black Sesame - Black Sesame is the second-largest domestic vendor but faces challenges due to a lack of scale and heavy R&D burdens, which could pressure its financials [4][9] - The company focuses on L2+ SoC, capturing a 9% vehicle share in 2024, but lacks software expertise, slowing customer acquisition compared to Horizon [5] - Black Sesame's current balance sheet can only support R&D investments for 1-2 years, suggesting a need for frequent capital raises, which could dilute shareholder value [5] - Black Sesame is rated Underperform with a price target of HKD 16, indicating a 15% downside potential [5][9] Market Dynamics - Concerns exist regarding OEMs' in-house development of smart driving chips potentially disrupting the outsourcing market; however, it is expected that around 60% of the market will remain open to third-party vendors by 2030 [2][13] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with Horizon Robotics and Black Sesame primarily competing against Nvidia in the L2+ & above market [14] - The increasing consumer preference for smart driving features is a critical differentiator among OEMs, with over 70% of consumers considering ADAS functionalities important in vehicle purchasing decisions [18][21] Financial Metrics - Horizon Robotics has a market cap of HKD 133.3 billion and an enterprise value of HKD 116.3 billion, with a reported EPS of RMB 0.51 for 2024 [6] - Black Sesame has a market cap of HKD 12 billion and an enterprise value of HKD 10.4 billion, with a reported EPS of RMB 1.20 for 2024 [6] Investment Implications - Horizon Robotics is expected to maintain its technological leadership through significant R&D investments, which will also allow for future expansion into robotics and global markets through joint ventures [8] - Black Sesame's lack of software capabilities and scale may hinder its long-term success, necessitating a strategic shift or additional funding to remain competitive [9] Conclusion - The smart driving chip sector in China is poised for rapid growth, with Horizon Robotics positioned as a leader due to its integrated hardware-software solutions, while Black Sesame faces significant challenges that could impact its market position and financial health [8][9]
豪威集团(603501):上半年业绩稳健;维持“买入”评级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 00:39
Core Insights - The company reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth to 14 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, driven by double-digit growth in simulation solutions (up 21%) and distribution business (up 42%) [1] - Gross margin remained stable at 30.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net profit surged by 48% to 2 billion RMB, with net profit margin rising to 14.5% from 11.3% in the same period last year, attributed to operational leverage and cost control [1] CIS Business Performance - The core business, CIS (Image Sensor), achieved record sales of 10.3 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, with automotive, security, emerging IoT, and medical CIS growing by 30%, 17%, 249%, and 68% respectively, offsetting a 19% decline in mobile CIS [1] - Automotive CIS remains a key growth driver, generating 3.8 billion RMB in revenue, a 30% increase, accounting for 37% of CIS segment revenue, driven by increased ADAS penetration and strong cabin imaging demand [2] - Mobile CIS faced challenges with a 19% year-on-year revenue decline due to a product demand cycle shift and slow recovery in the Chinese smartphone market [2] Emerging Markets and Future Projections - Emerging IoT and medical CIS experienced explosive growth, with IoT CIS revenue up 249% to 1.2 billion RMB and medical CIS up 68% to 443 million RMB [3] - Security CIS revenue grew by 17% to 827 million RMB, benefiting from the acceptance of high-end products and a recovering market [3] - Projections for 2025 indicate that emerging IoT and medical CIS will maintain high growth rates of 230% and 50% respectively [3] Valuation and Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 173 RMB, based on a 33.6 times 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, consistent with the two-year historical average [3] - The previous target price was 176 RMB, based on a 41 times 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, with net profit forecasts for 2025/26 adjusted down by 19% and 15% respectively due to slowing mobile CIS growth and margin pressure [3] - Despite challenges, the outlook remains optimistic for next year, considering the gradual ramp-up of new mobile CIS products and margin improvements, with a projected 50% net profit growth in 2026 [3]
ROBOSENSE(02498.HK):ROBOTICS IS THE NEW GROWTH ENGINE
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-26 19:14
Core Viewpoint - RoboSense has demonstrated strong revenue growth in its Robotics segment and moderate growth in the ADAS segment, leading to an adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] Group 1: Robotics Segment Performance - The revenue from the robotics segment tripled year-over-year, driven by advancements in the E1R and Airy products across various markets, including robot lawn mowers, food delivery, and humanoid robotics [2] - The company has established partnerships with several top global lawn mower manufacturers, achieving order volumes in the seven-digit unit range [2] - Collaborations in unmanned delivery include partnerships with Meituan, Neolix, White Rhino, COCO Robotics, and two leading delivery platforms in North America [2] - In humanoid robotics, the company has partnered with 20 leading firms, including Unitree and Dobot, indicating strong market potential and purchasing power [2] Group 2: ADAS Segment Performance - The ADAS segment revenue showed significant recovery, although it fell short of expectations due to delays in mass production of the EMX LiDAR, which is now expected in 2025Q3 [3] - Total revenue for 2025Q2 was RMB271 million, reflecting a 10.5% year-over-year decline but an 18.6% sequential increase [3] - LiDAR product sales volume reached 123.8k units, up 4.6% year-over-year, while the average selling price (ASP) for ADAS LiDAR decreased to RMB2,193, down 14.4% year-over-year and 7.3% sequentially [3] - The gross margin for the ADAS segment increased by 4.4 percentage points sequentially to 19.4%, attributed to a favorable product mix and cost reductions from integrating core technologies into a single chip [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant revenue increase in the second half of 2025 due to the mass production and delivery of EMX LiDAR [3] - The earnings reports are expected to validate the delivery volumes of the company's robotics LiDAR products, serving as a potential catalyst for growth [4]
Stellantis(STLA.US)L3自动驾驶项目搁浅 高成本与市场疑虑迫使转向外包
智通财经网· 2025-08-26 13:17
智通财经APP获悉,三位知情人士透露,Stellantis(STLA.US)已搁置其首个L3级高级驾驶辅助项目,原 因是成本高昂、技术挑战以及担心消费者接受度不足。 就在2025年2月,该公司还宣称其自主研发的AutoDrive系统已准备就绪,并将成为战略的关键支柱。该 系统允许驾驶员在特定条件下放开双手并移开视线,可暂时观看电影、处理邮件或阅读书籍。 该公司向确认,这款L3级软件最终未能上市,但未明确表示项目已被取消。 Stellantis发言人表示:"2025年2月发布的是目前市场需求有限的L3技术,因此并未推出,但该技术已具 备部署条件。"不过三位消息人士称,该项目已被冻结且预计不会部署。当被问及该项目耗费的时间与 资金时,Stellantis拒绝透露具体数字,仅表示AutoDrive的研发成果将助力未来版本开发。 Stellantis前任首席执行官Carlos Tavares在2021年曾透露,AutoDrive作为三大核心技术平台之一原定于 2024年面世。"软件战略是Stellantis整体战略的关键基石,"他当时表示。 近年来传统车企竞相投入巨资开发可像智能手机般持续升级的软件定义汽车,这种由特 ...
速腾聚创(02498):机器人业务成为新增长引擎
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-08-26 03:18
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HK$46.40, revised from the previous target price of HK$42.17 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue from robotics and other LiDAR products has shown strong growth, while revenue from ADAS applications has seen moderate growth. The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 24.46 billion (-6.8%), RMB 37.56 billion (+2.4%), and RMB 52.27 billion (+5.2%) respectively [8][10]. - The company expects adjusted net profit to turn positive in Q4 2025, with the valuation method now based on 2026 multiples to better capture growth in the rapidly developing robotics sector [8][10]. - The robotics and other business revenue has tripled year-on-year, driven by breakthroughs in various markets including lawn mowing robots, unmanned delivery, and humanoid robots [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 1,120 million, with a net loss of RMB 4,337 million. The EPS was reported at RMB -44.670 [7][13]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 1,649 million, with a reduced net loss of RMB 482 million and an EPS of RMB -1.109 [7][10]. - By 2025, revenue is expected to increase to RMB 2,446 million, with a further reduced net loss of RMB 160 million and an EPS of RMB -0.394 [7][10]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 26.7% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [14][15]. Market Position and Competitiveness - The company has established partnerships with leading manufacturers in the lawn mower market, achieving order volumes in the seven figures. Collaborations in the unmanned delivery sector include major platforms such as Meituan and COCO Robotics [8][10]. - The average selling price for ADAS LiDAR products has decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, while the gross margin for this segment has increased by 4.4 percentage points to 19.4% [8][10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the robotics sector, supported by its strong partnerships and innovative product offerings [8][10].
舜宇光学 2025 年上半年:高端化推动利润激增;目标价上调至 110 港元
2025-08-25 01:38
Summary of Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd - **Ticker**: 2382.HK - **Industry**: Asia Tech Hardware Key Financial Results - **1H25 Performance**: - Total revenue increased by 4% YoY, aligning with consensus expectations [1][9] - Gross margin (GM) improved by 2.6 percentage points YoY to 19.8% [1][9] - Handset lens GM rose to 25-30% from 20-25% in 2024, driven by a higher mix of 6P+ lenses and a more than doubling of G+P lenses revenue [1][9] - Module GM reached the guided range of 8-10%, supported by over 20% YoY growth in periscope/large-CIS [1][9] - The auto segment, which has a higher GM, grew by 18% YoY, contributing positively to overall corporate GM [1][9] - XR revenue surged by 21% YoY due to momentum in AI glasses [1][9] Market Dynamics - **Handset Shipments**: Monthly shipment data is becoming less indicative of overall business strength. Despite a decline in handset shipments, the average selling price (ASP) for handsets increased by over 20% YoY [2][10] - **2025 Guidance**: Management expects a 5-10% YoY increase in handset revenue, with lens GM maintaining the 25-30% range and module GM remaining stable [2][10] Growth Drivers - **Auto Segment**: - Lens shipments in the auto segment increased by 22% YoY, driven by the adoption of ADAS cameras among major Chinese OEMs [3][11] - Modules are expected to be a key growth driver from a low base, with current overseas OEM sales (e.g., VW & Toyota) at 10% of product mix [3][11] - **XR Segment**: Although the revenue guidance for XR is single-digit growth this year, Sunny's leadership in smart glasses and early investments in AR are expected to contribute to double-digit growth in the future [3][11] Financial Projections - **EPS Growth**: The estimated EPS CAGR for 2024-2026 has been revised up to 28% [3][24] - **Revenue Projections**: Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2026, driven by rapid growth in the auto and XR segments [24][33] - **Corporate GM**: Expected to stabilize above 20%, supported by a higher mix of high-margin auto products and premium handset products [3][24] Valuation and Price Target - **Price Target**: The price target has been raised to HK$110, using a P/E multiple of 25x against the 2026 EPS estimate of RMB4.0 [6][24] - **Current Price**: Closing price as of 20 August 2025 was HK$82.25, indicating a potential upside of 34% [4][45] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include stronger-than-expected margin pressure from new iPhone products, a weaker Android phone market, and slower adoption rates for ADAS and AR/VR technologies [51] Conclusion Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd is positioned for multi-year growth driven by its strong performance in the auto and XR segments, despite challenges in handset shipments. The company’s financial metrics indicate a solid outlook, with improved margins and a favorable EPS growth trajectory.
禾赛25Q2跟踪报告:GAAP盈利超预期,国内外客户拓展顺利
CMS· 2025-08-24 09:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 706 million yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 53.9%, and a significant turnaround in GAAP net profit to 44 million yuan, exceeding expectations [1][2]. - The laser radar delivery volume exceeded expectations, with a total of 352,100 units delivered in Q2 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 306.9%, driven primarily by the ADAS segment [3][4]. - The company has deepened collaborations with leading domestic clients and is steadily advancing its global expansion efforts, including partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [4]. Revenue Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 706 million yuan, which aligns with the guidance provided for Q1 2025 [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.232 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 50.6% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 42.5%, with a slight year-over-year decrease of 2.6 percentage points, but an increase of 0.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The GAAP net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 6.23%, significantly surpassing the breakeven guidance for Q1 2025 [2]. Delivery Volume and Market Share - The company delivered 54,790 units of laser radar in the first half of 2025, achieving a year-over-year increase of 276.2% [3]. - The company holds the leading market share in both the ADAS and robotics sectors, with the highest installation volume of laser radar in the ADAS field for the first half of 2025 [3]. Client Collaborations - The company has established partnerships with 24 automotive manufacturers, with recent agreements for 20 new models from major brands such as Geely and Great Wall [4]. - Internationally, the company is progressing with projects involving top European automotive manufacturers, laying the groundwork for mass production in 2026 [4].
舜宇光学科技_规格升级助力盈利能力;车载摄像头受益于 AD、ADAS 普及;中性-Sunny Optical (2382.HK)_ Specification upgrade to support profitability; Vehicle Cameras riding on AD_ ADAS adoption; Neutral
2025-08-21 04:44
Summary of Sunny Optical (2382.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sunny Optical (2382.HK) - **Industry**: Optical components and camera modules Key Points Financial Performance - Management remains positive about improving profitability, driven by specification upgrades in smartphone cameras [1][2] - Expected gross margin (GM) recovery to 19.7% and 20.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, compared to 14.5% and 18.3% in 2023 and 2024 [1] - July shipment growth for handset lens, vehicle lens, and camera modules was reported at -15%, +29%, and -3% year-over-year respectively [1] Revenue Projections - 2025 revenues expected to deliver year-over-year growth, supported by upgrades towards 6P and above handset lenses and large image size modules [5] - Vehicle lens and camera modules revenue growth driven by accelerated Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) penetration and specification upgrades towards 8MPx solutions [5] - Management highlighted a recent design win for an 8MPx vehicle camera module from European OEM clients, supporting overseas expansion [5] Earnings Revisions - Earnings revised up by 10%, 2%, and 2% for 2025-2027 estimates [3] - Revenue estimates remain unchanged, but gross margin revised up by 0.5, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points for 2025-2027 [3] Product Innovations - Management emphasized ultra-miniaturized molding packaging technology to enable module miniaturization for ultra-thin and foldable phones [5] - Anticipated growth in AR/VR products driven by the ramp-up of AI/AR glasses in 2025, with comprehensive product offerings across XR interaction modules and display modules [5] Valuation and Price Target - Target price raised to HK$91.1 from HK$89.0, based on a 2025E target P/E multiple of 21.6x [9] - The target P/E multiple aligns with the company's historical trading range [9] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected competition in handset lenses, shipment growth fluctuations in camera modules, and currency fluctuations [15] Financial Metrics - Projected revenues for 2025 are Rmb 43,816 million, with net income expected to reach Rmb 3,757 million [7] - Gross margin expected to improve to 20.0% in 2025, with operating margin at 8.5% [7] Additional Insights - Management's focus on technical capabilities for miniaturization and professional-grade imaging positions the company well for future growth in high-end smartphone models [1][5] - The positive outlook on vehicle camera modules indicates a strategic shift towards automotive applications, which may provide new revenue streams [5] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the earnings call, highlighting Sunny Optical's financial performance, growth strategies, and market outlook.