证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 转债市场周报 权益回调中展现"退可守"属性 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日） 股市方面，上周市场震荡下跌，在地缘政治局势紧张、海外 AI 泡沫担 忧加剧、美国 9 月非农数据超预期导致降息预期走弱等因素影响下，市 场风险偏好明显下降，各行业板块出现普跌，具备防御属性的银行板块 跌幅较小。债市方面，上周初资金面总体偏紧，随着税期缴款结束、以 及央行持续净投放下，后半周资金转为均衡偏松；市场风险偏好走弱， 但股债跷跷板效应并不明显，债市全周窄幅震荡；周五 10 年期国债利 率收于 1.82%，较前周上行 0.26bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-1.78%，价 格中位数-1.89%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周-6.70%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比+7.72%。个券层面，路维（掩膜版）、鼎龙（半导体）、 浩瀚（网络智能化）、恒锋（智慧城市信息服务）、家联（3D 打印）转 债涨幅靠前；中能（电网设备）、立中（铝合金锭&已公告强赎）、豫 光（贵金属&已公告强赎）、天赐（电解液&已公告强赎）、宏发（继电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to increase its investment in Shanghai Milai Chip Semiconductor Co., Ltd. by 200 million yuan to enhance its strategic development and competitiveness in the precision optics and semiconductor exposure machine industries [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The company will invest 200 million yuan in cash to subscribe for 5.314283 million yuan of newly registered capital in Milai Chip [1] - Following this investment, the company's ownership stake in Milai Chip will increase from 19.3548% to 37.2760% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has over 30 years of experience in the precision optics industry and is currently in a rapid growth phase, benefiting from the increasing demand for glass aspheric lenses, optical prisms, and glass wafers across various sectors including automotive, optical modules, smartphones, and handheld imaging devices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Business Segments - The company has established three main product lines: glass aspheric lenses, optical prisms, and glass wafers, leveraging core technologies in optical cold processing and thermal molding [2]. - The glass aspheric lens segment is experiencing strong growth due to its applications in automotive perception systems, smartphones, and optical communication, with significant demand expected from ADAS lenses and high-end flagship smartphones [3]. - The optical prism segment is positioned as a core supplier for key clients, benefiting from the trend of upgrading and downscaling periscope telephoto lenses, which have become standard in flagship models [4]. - The glass wafer segment is anticipated to enter a high growth phase driven by the increasing demand for consumer-grade AR products and advanced semiconductor packaging, with the company actively developing customized solutions [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2023, the company is projected to see a revenue increase of 37.1% and a net profit growth of 22.6% year-on-year, with further acceleration expected in the first half of 2024, where revenue is forecasted to grow by 52.5% and net profit by 110.3% [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1.46 billion, 1.87 billion, and 2.33 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 41%, 28%, and 25% respectively, with corresponding net profits of 340 million, 460 million, and 570 million yuan [6].

Core Viewpoint - Company announces a strategic investment in 卓光芮科技 (Zhuoguangrui) to enhance its competitiveness in the precision optics and semiconductor exposure machine industries [2] Group 1: Investment Details - Company plans to invest 12 million yuan in 卓光芮, acquiring 19.3548% of its increased registered capital [2] - The investment will be made using self-owned and raised funds [2] - Company has the right to invest an additional 12 million yuan within six months after the initial investment [2] Group 2: Valuation and Agreements - The additional investment will be priced based on 卓光芮's pre-investment overall valuation not exceeding 700 million yuan [2] - Company has signed an investment subscription agreement and a shareholder agreement with 卓光芮 and its existing shareholders [2] Group 3: Company Name Change - 卓光芮 has changed its company name and completed the necessary business registration procedures [2] - The new business license was issued by the Market Supervision Administration of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone Lingang New Area [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4][7][18]. Core Insights - The company has a strong position in the precision optics industry, with over 30 years of experience and a diverse product matrix, including LBO crystals, BBO crystals, and high-precision optical components [1][12]. - The establishment of a subsidiary, Zhiqi Photon Technology Co., focuses on the development and sales of ultra-precision optical components, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue and profit in the future [3][12]. - The company is one of the few suppliers capable of providing a comprehensive range of products, including crystals, optical components, and laser devices, serving various industrial applications such as lasers, optical communications, and AR/VR [2][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.53 billion, 12.35 billion, and 14.41 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.3%, 17.2%, and 16.7% respectively [4][18]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.71 billion, 3.23 billion, and 3.80 billion yuan, with growth rates of 24.0%, 19.1%, and 17.7% [4][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.58, 0.69, and 0.81 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][18]. Business Segments - The laser optical components segment is expected to generate revenues of 4.04 billion, 5.05 billion, and 6.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a stable gross margin of 45% [13][17]. - The nonlinear optical crystal components segment is projected to achieve revenues of 2.54 billion, 2.74 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, maintaining a gross margin of 76% [14][17]. - The laser device segment is anticipated to grow to 2.15 billion, 2.57 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 30% [16][17].

Investment Logic - The company focuses on the research and manufacturing of optical components and products, with laser optical products catering to various mainstream laser applications, and infrared thermal imaging optics primarily used for night vision, temperature measurement, and monitoring. The company achieved a revenue of 420 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2019 to 2024. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 100 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% [1]. Industry Expansion - The precision optics sector is diversifying, with the company's product layout gradually expanding. The semiconductor industry, represented by PCB and panel sectors, is deeply integrating with laser technology driven by technological iterations and AI. According to Chinese customs data, the number of semiconductor equipment imports in China from January to May 2025 was 22,000 units, down 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a decline in imported equipment. The urgency for domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment is increasing due to escalating overseas restrictions on China's semiconductor industry. The company reported a revenue of 51.09 million yuan in the semiconductor and related manufacturing sectors in 2024, up 82.3% year-on-year, and is expected to benefit from the growing demand for precision optical components in domestic semiconductor equipment. In contrast to smartphones, AR involves entirely new optical solutions, with optical display units accounting for 43% of the BOM in AR devices, representing a significant value portion. The company announced that its optical products for AR/VR have generated approximately 5.5 million yuan in revenue from major domestic manufacturers in 2024, and the consumer-grade optical business is expected to benefit positively as AR/VR devices penetrate the market [2]. Customer Orders and Performance Growth - Customer orders for laser and infrared products are steadily increasing, which is expected to drive the company's performance growth. The production of laser and infrared products involves multiple disciplines and complex processes, creating high technical barriers in the industry. Major clients such as Dazhu Laser and Hede Infrared have shown revenue growth rates of 10.8% and 45.5% respectively in Q1 2025, indicating that the recovery in revenue growth from downstream major clients is likely to boost demand for the company's laser and infrared optical products. In addition to domestic leading clients, the company is implementing a global strategy through its RONAR-SMITH and Op e x brands, serving international renowned laser and infrared companies such as IPG Photonics and FLIR. The company's overseas business revenue reached 130 million yuan in 2024, up 35% year-on-year, accounting for 31% of total revenue [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 510 million, 640 million, and 800 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits attributable to shareholders of 50 million, 70 million, and 90 million yuan. The projected price-to-sales (PS) ratios are 18, 14, and 12 times respectively. A valuation of 18 times PS for 2026 is assigned, leading to a target price of 100.08 yuan per share. The company is initially covered with a "buy" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to guiding capital towards technological innovation and green finance, enhancing its service capabilities to support the development of strategic emerging industries and the implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy [1][5][6]. Group 1: Capital Market Responsibilities - The company emphasizes its role as a "gatekeeper" in the capital market, focusing on improving the quality of listed companies and protecting investor rights [2]. - It actively assists enterprises in identifying their market positioning and provides comprehensive financial services, including equity investment and debt financing, to enhance their competitiveness [2][3]. Group 2: Support for Strategic Emerging Industries - The company effectively directs capital towards technological innovation, supporting the growth of strategic emerging industries through an "investment + investment banking" model [3]. - It has facilitated nearly 40 billion yuan in equity financing for TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors in Fujian, helping 14 local tech companies achieve IPOs [3]. Group 3: Green Finance Initiatives - The company has established a comprehensive green finance product and service system, focusing on green research, financing, investment, and environmental rights trading [5][6]. - It has created specialized funds to support the high-quality development of "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" small and medium-sized enterprises in Fujian, with a total scale of 6.6 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company has been proactive in developing green financial services and products, aiming to facilitate the green transition of traditional high-carbon industries [5][6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported value-added sales of $269 million, down 2% organically year-over-year but up 4% sequentially [13] - Adjusted EBITDA was $55.8 million, representing a margin of 20.8%, down 3% year-over-year but with a 10 basis points margin expansion [14] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.37, down 4% from the prior year but up 21% sequentially [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Performance Materials**: Value-added sales were $168.5 million, down 3% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially, with adjusted EBITDA of $41.5 million [15] - **Electronic Materials**: Value-added sales were $76.1 million, down 6% year-over-year, but EBITDA margin reached a record 23.4%, up 4% from the prior year [18] - **Precision Optics**: Value-added sales were $24.4 million, down 5% year-over-year but up 14% sequentially, with EBITDA of $2.2 million [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in the energy market increased by 28% year-over-year, driven by new and existing business [11] - Order rates improved double digits sequentially, excluding China, where tariff-related hesitancy persists [9] - The defense market saw record bookings of $75 million, up nearly 30% year-over-year [83] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its semiconductor footprint in Asia through the acquisition of Tantalum Solutions, enhancing its position as a global supplier [8] - There is a strong emphasis on cash flow generation, with $36 million in free cash flow reported for the quarter [6] - The company aims to leverage growth in the energy sector, particularly in new energy initiatives, as a key growth driver [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in affirming the full-year earnings guidance of $5.3 to $5.7 adjusted earnings per share, despite ongoing risks [22] - The broader semiconductor market is showing signs of improvement, with increasing order rates and customer inventories coming in line [9] - Management highlighted the importance of operational improvements and commercial strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [41] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a net debt position of approximately $413 million and $257 million of available capacity on its credit facility [20] - The integration of the Tantalum Solutions acquisition is progressing well, with sample production for customer qualifications underway [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of Electronic Materials margins - Management indicated that while Q2 margins are encouraging, they may not be sustainable every quarter, but improvements are expected as market conditions continue to rebound [29] Question: Insights on the energy business - Management discussed growth in both traditional and alternative energy sectors, emphasizing the increasing demand for energy and the company's role in meeting that demand [34] Question: Updates on tariff risks related to China - Management noted that tariff rates have been reduced, allowing for better product flow, and expressed confidence in offsetting any remaining impacts through operational improvements [40] Question: Details on Conasol acquisition - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's semiconductor capabilities in Asia, with initial sales anticipated in 2026 [50] Question: Outlook for automotive market - Management expects flat to slight increases in the automotive market in the second half of the year, while remaining optimistic about growth in other sectors [81] Question: Defense backlog and margins - The defense market is expected to provide improved margins, with significant new inquiries and bookings indicating strong future performance [83]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is that United Chemical plans to invest 120 million yuan to acquire a 19.3548% stake in Zhuoguangrui Technology, aiming to leverage opportunities in the precision optics and semiconductor exposure machine industries for long-term development [1][2] - Zhuoguangrui, established in March this year, is in the early stages of investment and R&D, with a team led by experienced professionals from leading international semiconductor exposure equipment companies [1] - The investment will primarily support Zhuoguangrui's product R&D and production needs, specifically for the development of exposure machines and related components [1] Group 2 - United Chemical retains the right of first refusal for future capital increases, allowing it to invest up to an additional 120 million yuan within six months after the initial investment [2] - The investment aligns with national priorities for achieving self-sufficiency in key technology areas, particularly in precision optics and semiconductor exposure machines, which are essential for the digital economy and AI industries [2] - This investment marks a strategic shift for United Chemical from traditional manufacturing to a technology-driven model, enhancing its business layout [2] Group 3 - United Chemical emphasizes continuous technological innovation and deepening its organic pigment sector while advancing its strategic layout in electronic chemicals [3] - The company has recently established a subsidiary focused on semiconductor materials, further extending its business into the electronic chemicals field [3] - The investment in Zhuoguangrui represents a significant step in United Chemical's industrial upgrade strategy, combining self-innovation with the introduction of advanced technologies [3]

Group 1 - The company plans to invest 120 million yuan in Zhuoguangrui Technology, acquiring a 19.3548% stake [1] - The investment will primarily support the research and development of domestic projection exposure machines and related components [1] - This investment aligns with the company's strategic transformation from traditional manufacturing to a technology-driven model, enhancing its layout in strategic business areas [1] Group 2 - Precision optical products and semiconductor projection exposure machines are essential hardware foundations for the development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence industries [1] - The investment represents a new focal point for the company's transformation and upgrade strategy, contributing to the establishment of a new development model [1]