[Music] Recent US GDP data still shows strong growth, but labor figures point to a cooling job market. The key question, which signal wins out. Will growth slow to match weaker employment, or will hiring rebound to meet GDP strength.For my view, the Fed puts more weight on jobs than GDP. Maximum employment is one of its dual mandates alongside price stability while GDP is not. That means policy adjustments will hinge more on labor data and soft jobs numbers could drag growth lower.With the government shutdo ...

以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 越是关键时刻，越考验经济韧性。 01 这是2025年前三季度31省份GDP排行： | | 地区 | 2025Q3 | 202403 | 增量 | 名义增速 | 奥际增速 | 2024年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 广东 | 105177 | 102187 | 2990 | 2.9% | 4.1% | 141634 | | 2 | 江苏 | 102811 | 99235 | 3576 | 3.6% | 5.4% | 137008 | | ਤੋ | 山东 | 77115 | 73782 | 3333 | 4.5% | 5.6% | 98566 | | 4 | 浙江 | 68495 | 65059 | 3436 | 5.3% | 5.7% | 90131 | | 5 | 四川 | 49322 | 47005 | 2317 | 4.9% | 5.5% | 64697 | | ୧ | 河南 | 48868 | 46775 | 2093 | 4.5% ...

All right. So, we've kind of rolled out a stat that we got that for every week of the government shutdown, it negatively impacts uh quarterly GDP by a tenth of a percent. But as this continues to go on potentially to a new record, uh are we seeing bigger impacts than that than that stat really shows.>> Yeah, I think the more concerning thing would be if the shutdown drags on and spirals into something that would have more prolonged impacts. If government contractors and vendors have not been paid, we'll thi ...

Core Insights - The article does not provide any specific content or insights regarding companies or industries [1] Group 1 - No relevant information available [1]

So, we're now 30 days into this government shutdown, and we're finally getting some data on the kind of impact this is having on businesses and the economy. So, let's begin with this brand new report from the Chamber of Commerce out today on small businesses showing that they have lost $12 billion in the last 4 weeks. And that's because a lot of these small businesses, 65,500 of them are federal contractors.And this is everything from high-tech machines to landscaping to office supplies. They're not getting ...

Investors Await Euro-zone GDP Data Ahead of ECB Rate Decision https://t.co/1ocQSP1D10 ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.0% for Q1 2024, with a gradual decline to 2.0% by Q4 2025[7] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show fluctuations, with a notable drop to -6.0% in Q1 2024[7] Federal Reserve Projections - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates between 5.30% and 5.80% through mid-2025[5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December 2025 are at 67.79% probability, decreasing to 32.21% for a higher rate[10] Inflation Metrics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to stabilize around 3.0% by mid-2024, with a potential increase to 4.0% by Q1 2025[14] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is anticipated to be 2.5% in 2024, reflecting a slight increase from previous years[14] Housing Market Trends - The median home price in the U.S. is expected to rise steadily, reaching approximately $400,000 by late 2025[8] - Existing home sales are projected to increase by 5% annually, indicating a recovering housing market[8] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims are forecasted to remain below 200,000, indicating a strong labor market[16] - The labor force participation rate is expected to stabilize around 62% by 2025, reflecting a balanced labor market[16]

日本央行周四如期维持利率在0.5%不变，但有两名委员建议加息25基点至0.75%（理由是物价风险偏向上行）。日元短线走低，美元对日元拉升50点。日本央行维持2025至2027财年核心CPI预期中值不变，将2025财年实际GDP增速预期中值从0.6%小幅上调至0.7%。 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with real GDP growth at 1.6% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, indicating potential underlying issues despite positive top-line numbers [3] - Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021, with nearly 1 million layoffs reported through September, a 55% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Inflation has increased by 3% year over year as of September, up from 2.3% in April, largely influenced by tariffs affecting corporate supply chains [1] - Companies are reporting a decline in visits from lower-income customers, with McDonald's and O'Reilly Auto Parts noting reduced spending on dining and auto repairs, respectively [6] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility, dropping 3.5% after a significant 6% decline on October 21, with prices falling below $4,000 per ounce, raising concerns among investors [5] - Bank of America has revised its gold forecast, predicting a bearish target of $3,800 per ounce for Q4 2025, but sees potential for prices to rise to $5,000 per ounce in 2026 due to structural drivers remaining in place [11][16] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that long-term holders of gold will need to continue supporting demand through exchange-traded funds, while central banks are expected to diversify away from the U.S. Dollar [4] - Historical analysis indicates that adding a 5% gold allocation to traditional investment portfolios could yield higher returns, suggesting a shift towards a 60:20:20 portfolio structure [17]

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 87,816 kilograms, with an increase of 801 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The opening price of gold futures on October 29 was 895.12 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 911.98 CNY and a low of 893.64 CNY, with a current price of 910.88 CNY, reflecting a decrease of 0.55% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 36,239 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 7,225 contracts to a total of 168,691 contracts [1] Group 2 - Trump stated that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) will unite Pacific nations for economic development, with the U.S. having secured over 18 trillion USD in new investment commitments [1] - By the end of his second term, projected investment inflows to the U.S. could reach between 21 trillion to 22 trillion USD, with an expected GDP growth of 4% in the next quarter [1] - Trump also mentioned that he would not allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates [1]