The US economy rebounded in the second fiscal quarter of the year, growing at a better thanex expected rate despite President Trump's tariffs. The country's GDP grew at a 3% pace from April to June, reversing a.5 decline from the previous quarter. Consumer spending also rose.But the growth comes despite a sharp decline in imports, which dropped by 30.3%. The Wall Street Journal editorial board called it the weirdest GDP report ever, while President Trump touted the growth as a success. all expectations.They ...

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 showed a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding the expected 2.4% and rebounding from a previous decline of -0.5% in Q1[2] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous quarter[2] Consumption and Trade - Personal consumption increased from a previous annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, contributing 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth[2] - Net exports improved significantly due to a sharp decline in imports, which fell from an annualized rate of 37.9% to -30.3%, raising the contribution to GDP from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a dramatic decline, with an annualized rate dropping from 23.8% in Q1 to -15.6% in Q2, negatively impacting GDP by 3.1 percentage points[2] - Residential investment continued to decline, with an annualized rate of -4.6% in Q2, reflecting ongoing pressures from high mortgage rates and immigration policies[2] Government Spending - Government spending rebounded to an annualized growth rate of 0.4% in Q2, driven primarily by increased defense spending and state/local government hiring[2] - State and local government expenditures rose from 2.0% in Q1 to 3.0% in Q2, indicating a positive trend in public sector investment[2] Market Reactions - Following the GDP release, market expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and bond yields, while gold prices fell[2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved, reaching 61.8 in July, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence[2]

U.S. Economy Rebounded In Second Quarter As GDP Rises 3% https://t.co/jHnjZ8Adko https://t.co/jHnjZ8Adko ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The decision to not lower rates was in line with market expectations, although two officials voted against it, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1][8]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, with two officials dissenting for a rate cut [1][8]. - The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The July FOMC statement showed a slight weakening in the description of economic growth but did not indicate a dovish shift. Employment remains solid, inflation is still high, and the unemployment rate is low [2][9]. - The statement changed the description of economic growth from "solid expansion" to "moderate slowdown" for the first half of the year, consistent with GDP data released on July 30 [2][10]. Powell's Remarks - Powell's stance on future rate cuts remains cautious, emphasizing a "wait and see" approach. He noted that upcoming employment and inflation reports will inform the September meeting's decisions [3][11]. - Despite a low unemployment rate, Powell acknowledged that inflation is above target, suggesting a moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate [3][13]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the probability dropping from 63.3% to 41.2% [6][18]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.37%, and the dollar index increased to 99.82, indicating a potential rebound in the dollar [6][18]. GDP Data Insights - The U.S. Q2 GDP showed a significant rebound with a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate of +3%, surpassing expectations of +2.4%. However, this rebound included technical factors due to a sharp decline in imports [5][15]. - Final sales to private domestic purchasers grew by only +1.2%, the lowest since late 2022, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand [5][16]. Investment Implications - The overall economic data suggests that while there is resilience in the labor market, underlying demand is weakening, which may affect future monetary policy decisions [4][14].

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate rebounded to 3% quarter-on-quarter annualized in Q2 2025, while the actual year-on-year growth rate remained at 2%, indicating a downward trend since Q3 2023[4] - Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) fell to a new low of 1.2% in Q2 2025, down from 1.9% in Q1 2025, reflecting a continued slowdown in domestic demand[7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending in Q2 2025 recorded a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.4%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to improved consumer confidence following reduced tariff uncertainties[5] - Year-on-year consumer spending growth fell to 2.4%, with services being the main contributor to this decline[8] Investment Trends - Investment fell sharply in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -15.6%, a decrease of 39.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, driven by the end of pre-tariff inventory accumulation[14] - Year-on-year investment growth also declined to -0.1%, with non-residential construction investment dropping to -3.8%[14] Trade Dynamics - Exports fell by -1.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, while imports saw a significant decline of -30.3%, down 68.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a retreat from the previous quarter's import surge[20] - Year-on-year import growth decreased by 11.6 percentage points to 1.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since December 2023, excluding Q1 2025[20] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, suggesting an increase in individuals permanently exiting the labor market[21] - Non-farm payrolls increased slightly to 147,000 in June, with government jobs contributing half of the new positions, while private sector job growth slowed significantly[21]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core View - Gold continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but two Fed officials voted against the decision. Powell stated that no decision has been made on the first rate cut in September as expected by the market, but "downside risks in the labor market are obvious." With the progress of trade negotiations, the US dollar index strengthened, and gold prices weakened continuously. Silver also declined against the backdrop of an overall correction in industrial products. After the US reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, risk aversion cooled, but there is still some uncertainty in China-US negotiations. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, but rates are expected to remain unchanged in July, and the market is speculating on a possible rate cut in September. Recent US economic data shows resilience, US CPI has rebounded, and the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, with subsequent impacts likely to gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill further boosts expectations of US fiscal deficits, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long-term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For Shanghai Gold 2510, the current price is 770.68, down 3.10 (-0.40%) from the previous close, with an open interest of 214,105 and trading volume of 206,379. For Shanghai Gold 2512, the current price is 772.76, down 3.00 (-0.39%), with an open interest of 115,693 and trading volume of 25,383. For Shanghai Silver 2510, the current price is 9,090.00, down 102.00 (-1.11%), with an open interest of 392,370 and trading volume of 689,866. For Shanghai Silver 2512, the current price is 9,110.00, down 103.00 (-1.12%), with an open interest of 210,377 and trading volume of 71,085 [2] Spot Market - The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold T+D was 769.48, up 2.29 (0.30%); the previous closing price of London Gold was 758.13, down 9.39 (-1.22%); the previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T+D was 9,166.00, up 3.00 (0.03%); the previous closing price of London Silver was 37.10, down 1.10 (-2.87%) [2] Inventory - The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 33,462 kg, an increase of 2,199.00 kg from the previous value; the current value of the silver inventory is 1,208,094 kg, an increase of 3,228.00 kg. The current value of COMEX gold inventory is 38,514,461, an increase of 347,929.37; the current value of COMEX silver inventory is 504,338,309, an increase of 2,041,750 [2] Related Derivatives - The current value of the US dollar index is 99.9684, up 1.06% from the previous value; the S&P index is 6,362.9, down 0.12%; the US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.92%; Brent crude oil is 72.75, up 0.01%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2123, up 0.44%. The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton; the SLV Silver ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481; the net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2] Macroeconomic News - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time early today, in line with expectations. Powell said it's too early to say whether the Fed will cut rates in September as the financial market expects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1. The US GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The core PCE price index annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 2.5%, down from 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3%. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations but still far below last year's average [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations; Gold trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from recent highs; Silver trend intensity is -1, also suggesting a bearish view [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold:沪金2510昨日收盘价773.78,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价770.68,夜盘跌幅0.32%;黄金T+D昨日收盘价769.48,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价767.00,夜盘跌幅0.32%;Comex黄金2510昨日收盘价3327.90,日涨幅0.08% [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日收盘价9192,日跌幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9090.00,夜盘跌幅1.32%;白银T+D昨日收盘价9166,日涨幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9062,夜盘跌幅1.23%;Comex白银2510昨日收盘价37.175,日跌幅3.15% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金2510合约对2512合约价差昨日成交206,379,较前日减少13,553,持仓214,105,较前日增加1,698;Comex黄金2510昨日成交199,901,较前日增加90,801,持仓322,961,较前日增加256,168 [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日成交689,866,较前日增加97,939,持仓392,370,较前日减少373;Comex白银2510昨日成交71,289,较前日增加29,664,持仓121,325, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓955.37,较前日减少1;沪金库存33,462千克,较前日增加2,199;Comex黄金库存（前日）38,166,532金衡盎司,较前日增加132,494 [2]. - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）15,149.90,较前日减少24;沪银库存1,208,094千克,较前日增加3228;Comex白银库存（前日）502,296,559金衡盎司,较前日增加599,929 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU251 -价差昨日为 -4.30, unchanged from the previous day;买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为4.77,较前日减少0.87;黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差昨日为385.68,较前日减少0.60 [2]. - Silver:白银T+D对AG2510价差昨日为32,较前日增加6;沪银2510合约对2512合约价差昨日为 -8,441,较前日增加16;买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为73.41,较前日减少11.3;白银T+D对伦敦银的价差昨日为4,247,较前日减少799 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - 美元指数昨日为99.94,日涨幅1.05%;美元兑人民币（CNY即期）昨日为7.18,日涨幅0.04%;欧元兑美元昨日为1.15,较前日减少0.01;美元兑日元昨日为148.59,较前日增加0.05;英镑兑美元昨日为1.21, unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slowing economic growth. Powell did not provide guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2][4]. - **China's Policies**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide on the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyzed the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August [7]. - **Trade Policies**: Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, etc. (excluding cathode copper and refined copper), causing a 20% plunge in New York copper prices. The US suspended the minimum exemption for low - value goods. Trump said the US would impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, and announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, with South Korea to provide $350 billion in investment to the US. Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by seven days [7]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than expected. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations, but employers are more cautious about hiring decisions [7]. - **Natural Disaster**: An 8.8 - magnitude earthquake struck the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, triggering a tsunami alert in the Pacific Rim, and China launched a second - level emergency response to marine disasters [5].

2025.07. 31 本文字数：1601，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在经历了三年来最差表现之后，美国经济在第二季度强劲复苏，国内生产总值GDP规模首次超过30 万亿美元。不过有分析认为，数字可能夸大了经济的健康状况，因为进口下降是增速改善的主要原 因，显示关键消费需求的指标正以两年半以来最慢的速度增长。随着企业和消费者努力应对持续的贸 易战，经济或将表现出疲软的迹象。 进口降温打压贸易逆差 根据美国经济分析局BEA周三发布的初步统计显示，美国第二季度GDP年化季率3%，这一结果大幅 超过了市场2.4%的增长预期，标志着自去年第三季度以来最强劲的增长速度。 今年第一季度，随着家庭和企业寻求应对与关税相关的价格上涨，美国进口激增。创纪录的贸易逆差 导致GDP以0.5%的速度下降。第二季度数据失真得到了缓解，4-6月进口暴跌30.3%，导致贸易逆 差减少，对GDP增加了4.99个百分点。 占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出在1月至3月放缓至0.5%后，以1.4%的速度增长。 值得注意的是，不包括贸易、库存和政府在内的私人国内销售（Private Domestic Sales），这一 潜在经济 ...

意国家统计局指出，此次收缩主要由农业、林业和渔业，以及工业增加值放缓所致，而服务业基本保持 稳定。数据显示，尽管内需依然向好，但净出口对该国经济造成了负面影响。 根据意国家统计局测算，若今年剩余时间内经济增长保持不变，意大利GDP年增长率将为0.5%。（新 华财经） 意大利国家统计局（ISTAT）7月30日公布的初步数据显示，以2020年为基准年计算、经季节和日历调 整后，2025年第二季度意大利经济环比萎缩0.1%。同比来看，该国国内生产总值（GDP）第二季度增 长0.4%，较第一季度0.7%的增幅有所放缓。 ...

If it's Wednesday, it's the economy. The president touts a better thanex expected GDP report ahead of another major tariff deadline as the Federal Reserve bucks the president's demands to lower interest rates. Plus, NBC News exclusive reporting on Defense Secretary Pete Hag's potential plans to run for office in Tennessee in what would be a major leadership shakeup for the Pentagon and President Trump's cabinet. And former Vice President Kla Harris says she will not run for governor of California, raising s ...