Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained stable since September, with an increase in reported layoffs raising concerns about a softening labor market [1][2] - The report highlights rising costs due to tariffs, with the term "tariff" mentioned 64 times, a decrease from 100 mentions in the previous report [1] Economic Activity - Economic activity in most Federal Reserve districts is stable, with some areas reporting slight expansions or contractions [3] - The St. Louis district reports unchanged economic activity and employment levels, with labor shortages attributed to immigration policy changes [3] Employment Trends - An increase in the number of employers reducing staff due to weak demand and economic uncertainty is noted, alongside investments in artificial intelligence [1][2] - Job stability is reported in several districts, but concerns about future hiring persist due to economic uncertainty [3] Price Trends - Moderate price increases are observed across various districts, with some areas experiencing heightened cost pressures [3] - Inflation is reported to be eroding consumer purchasing power, particularly in the St. Louis district [3] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending shows slight growth in some districts, supported by middle to high-income households, but overall economic uncertainty dampens expectations for significant future growth [3]

当前，美联储官员在是否继续降息的问题上存在分歧，他们需要在就业市场降温与通胀仍高于2%目标 之间取得平衡。美联储主席鲍威尔本周二表示，美国央行可能在本月晚些时候再次降息，并指出自9月 下调基准利率并预计年内再降两次以来，经济前景"几乎没有变化"。期货市场数据显示，投资者普遍预 计，美联储10月28日至29日的会议上再度降息几乎是板上钉钉。 从就业情况来看，大多数地区的企业通过裁员或主动离职的方式缩减员工规模，原因包括需求疲软、经 济不确定性上升以及人工智能投资增加。虽然一些企业表示招聘变得更容易，酒店业、农业、建筑和制 造业等领域仍面临人手短缺的问题。褐皮书指出："由于移民政策的近期变化，这些行业的劳动力供应 在多个地区受到了限制。" 报告还展示了部分地区的具体情况。费城的企业表示，部分供应商以"关税"为由提高价格，即使他们的 产品并未被加征关税。克利夫兰的一家制造商称，他们原计划等待工业生产恢复后再裁员，但最终"无 法再拖"。亚特兰大地区的企业警告称，关税引发的价格上涨才刚刚开始，预计物价将持续升高至2026 年。芝加哥一家货运公司形容当前的经济环境"如同陷入衰退"。堪萨斯城的一家制造企业则表示，原材 料价 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation, with businesses struggling to balance absorbing costs and passing them on to customers [1] - The report shows that since the last release on September 3, the overall economic growth in the U.S. has "remained largely unchanged," with a stable labor market but continued weak demand across most Federal Reserve districts [1] - Labor supply remains tight in sectors such as hotels, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, influenced by recent changes in immigration policy [1] Group 2 - The term "tariff" appeared 64 times in the report, a decrease from 100 times in the August report, indicating a shift in focus [1] - The report notes that while input costs have risen due to tariffs, the extent to which these costs are passed on to final product prices varies among businesses [1] - Some companies have chosen to keep prices stable to maintain competitiveness, while others have fully passed on higher import costs to consumers [1] Group 3 - The report comes amid a government shutdown that has lasted three weeks, leading to missing economic data, which may increase the weight of the Beige Book in decision-making [2] - Consumer spending has slightly declined, although luxury goods and travel spending by high-income groups remain "strong," while lower-income groups rely more on discounts and promotions [2] - There is a cautious sentiment among businesses due to the ongoing government shutdown, despite some regions showing improved future expectations [2]

Group 1 - Midwestern farmers are facing a crisis as the loss of a major Chinese buyer has led to a surplus of soybeans and corn, causing prices to plummet [1] - A report from Yale indicates that tariffs and foreign retaliation could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points and increase unemployment by 0.2 percentage points by 2025 [1] - Nomura Securities predicts that U.S. GDP growth in 2025 will only be 0.8%, which is worse than the aftermath of the 2009 financial crisis [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of recession from 35% to 45%, while JPMorgan forecasts a recession in the second half of the year [3] - The Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation are being undermined by tariffs, leading to increased import costs that consumers must bear [3] - Major retailers like Walmart and Delta Airlines have publicly complained about rising costs due to tariffs, which are affecting profit expectations [3] Group 3 - The European Union imposed tariffs on $26 billion worth of U.S. goods, with Canada retaliating with a 25% tariff on automobiles, disrupting supply chains [6] - Canada and Mexico have united in their response, causing significant disruptions in U.S. automotive production [6] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary downplayed recession concerns, suggesting that short-term pain is necessary for long-term benefits [6] Group 4 - In April, China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, which was later reduced to 10% for a limited time, causing significant distress among American farmers [8] - U.S. farmers are experiencing a drastic decline in business, with many unable to sell their crops and facing financial difficulties [8] - The tariffs intended to curb Chinese manufacturing have instead harmed American producers [8] Group 5 - Gold prices have surged by 50% since the beginning of the year, with predictions of reaching $4,900 by the end of the year [10] - A court ruling deemed many of Trump's tariffs illegal, which could have significant implications for the economy [10] - Yale's data indicates that tariffs are negatively impacting GDP and increasing unemployment concerns, with a 40% drop in orders observed in September [10] Group 6 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, with annual interest payments of $1.2 trillion and a fiscal deficit of $1.83 trillion [12] - Tariff revenue has only amounted to $6.8 billion by the end of May, insufficient to cover the growing fiscal gap [12] - The OECD has downgraded U.S. growth forecasts to 1.8%, which is considered optimistic given the current economic climate [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton fell 0.25% to 63.43 cents/pound on Tuesday, CF601 decreased 0.15% to 13,265 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 4,581 lots to 568,000 lots. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with the US government in a shutdown and a data vacuum. Short - term US cotton is expected to remain in low - level oscillations. In the domestic market, new cotton has a strong harvest expectation, with faster picking, delivery, and inspection progress. Supply pressure will persist. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure but has few major negative factors, so it is expected to operate under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's exports of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October increased by 9.45% year - on - year. Domestic sugar spot prices were lowered, and the raw sugar's rebound from a 4.5 - year low drove a slight rebound in domestic futures prices. However, due to the over - supply problem, the rebound is weak. The domestic market lacks strong drivers, and it is expected to have a weak oscillation. Future attention should be paid to the beet sugar pressing progress and the estimated output of cane sugar [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main basis was 1,490, up 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,598 yuan/ton, down 44; the national spot price was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 34 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 26, down 4; the main basis was 403, up 53. The Nanning spot price was 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 20 [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 2,823, down 44, with 52 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,598 yuan/ton, Henan 14,868 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,758 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,947 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 50.9, up 0.2; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.1, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 14, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 20. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,488, down 193, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main cotton contract, the main contract basis, the 1 - 5 spread, the 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, the warehouse receipt and valid forecast, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [6][9][10]. - **Sugar**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main sugar contract, the main contract basis, the 1 - 5 spread, and the warehouse receipt and valid forecast [12][15]. 3.4 Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, a resource product research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures; and Sun Chengzhen, engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy [17][18][19].

中国稀土管控措施，精准且有力地回应了美国总统特朗普挥舞的关税大棒。仅仅三天之内，美国白宫的态度便从起初的强硬威胁转为隔空喊话，试图重新开 启与北京的对话。 特朗普总统在他标志性的社交媒体上，情绪化地表达了对中国商品加征百分之百关税的威胁，这正是他此前商业谈判中惯用的"极限施压"手段的翻版。这位 曾是地产大亨的总统，始终将贸易视为一场零和博弈，而关税，便是他最钟爱的交易筹码。他甚至在白宫玫瑰园里，将"对等关税"比作"经济独立宣言"，承 诺这将带领美国步入一个"黄金时代"。然而，这种基于商业直觉的国家治理方式，在实际操作中立刻暴露出了其局限性。 美国贸易代表格里尔曾透露，美方已多次尝试联系中方，但北京方面并未予回应。这种"冷处理"的态度，让特朗普政府深刻意识到，他们惯用的"极限施 压"策略，在此次博弈中已然失效。这场贸易对峙的本质，实则是中美两国经济耐力的一场真实较量。 中国方面，在特朗普发出威胁后的第三天，便迅速发布了稀土出口管制公告。稀土作为高端制造业不可或缺的关键材料，中国拥有全球约百分之三十七的稀 土储量，并且供应着全球约百分之七十的稀土产品。此番反制措施，无疑精准地打击了美国芯片及高端制造业的软肋，直接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's newly launched simplified Model Y is facing controversy over its pricing strategy and significant reduction in features, which has not generated the expected positive response from consumers [1][3]. Pricing Strategy - Tesla introduced the Model Y standard version and Model 3 standard version in North America at starting prices of $39,990 and $36,990, respectively, which are approximately $5,000 and $5,500 cheaper than previous versions [1]. - Despite the price reduction, consumers may end up spending nearly $5,000 more compared to purchasing the older models before the expiration of the tax credit policy [3]. Feature Reductions - The Model Y standard version has seen major feature cuts, including the removal of the light bar between the headlights, cancellation of the automatic steering function in Autopilot, and modifications to the panoramic sunroof that require additional costs for users who wish to retain it [2][3]. - Consumer feedback indicates dissatisfaction, with some feeling that the new model is not worth the price due to the loss of features [3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the new models, Tesla's stock fell by 4.45%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of approximately $65 billion [3]. - Analysts express disappointment over the perceived lack of value in the new models compared to competitors [3]. Cost Management Challenges - Tesla's second-quarter net profit dropped by 16% to $1.172 billion, with gross margin decreasing from 18% to 17.2% year-over-year [4]. - The company has exhausted many cost-cutting measures, including centralized electronic architecture and the use of integrated die-casting technology, making further reductions increasingly difficult [4]. Battery Production Issues - The anticipated 4680 battery, which was expected to reduce costs by 50%, has faced significant production challenges, with actual output far below planned targets [5][6]. - The reliance on external battery suppliers has increased costs, particularly due to tariffs affecting imported components [7][8]. Future Outlook - Tesla's focus appears to be shifting towards autonomous vehicles and robotics, with the automotive segment becoming less of a priority [8]. - The company has not introduced a new model in five years, raising concerns about its innovation strategy [9][10].

Group 1: Current Trade Tensions - Recent U.S. measures against China include a 50% tariff on cabinets and a 30% tariff on softwood furniture, effective from September 29[9] - China has announced export controls on rare earth materials, effective November 8, which could significantly impact U.S. industries reliant on these materials[10] - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese products starting November 1, escalating trade tensions ahead of the APEC meeting[11] Group 2: Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China Trade Relations - One scenario suggests a temporary easing of tensions, potentially leading to a phased agreement during or before the APEC meeting, though full cancellation of rare earth controls is unlikely[18] - An alternative scenario indicates that trade friction may escalate, reducing the likelihood of reaching an agreement and potentially leading to a spiral of conflict[19] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - As of September, China's exports reached $328.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, surpassing market expectations of 5.7%[21] - The U.S. unemployment rate has slightly increased from 4% to 4.3%, indicating potential economic strain[16] - Market sentiment may shift towards defensive assets if trade tensions escalate, with a potential decline in stock market performance[30]

Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - The US government has been shut down since October 1, 2025, due to the failure to pass a temporary funding bill, leading to heightened US-China trade tensions [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded at 55, slightly above the expected 54 but below the previous value of 55.1 [1] - The one-year inflation expectation for October is at 4.6, slightly lower than the expected 4.7 and the previous 4.7, while the five-year inflation expectation remains stable at 3.7 [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of October 6-10, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 6.94%, the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.27%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.43%, with only two of the eleven sectors showing gains [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Direction - The threat of tariffs from Trump has triggered risk-averse trading, leading to declines in US stocks and a rise in gold prices [3] - The impact of the tariffs on US-China trade and economy is considered less significant compared to April, with market reactions being more desensitized [3] - There are ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate paths, indicating a divergence of opinions [3]

Domestic Macro Viewpoints - The impact of the new round of tariffs on the domestic economy is expected to be limited, with a 16.9% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in the first nine months, yet overall exports still achieved a 6.1% year-on-year growth[3] - Since Q3, domestic economic pressure has increased, with fixed asset investment growth dropping to 0.5% year-on-year in August and retail sales growth at 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a need for new growth stabilization policies[3] - The anticipated new growth stabilization policies are expected to be moderate, focusing on support rather than strong stimulus, with Q3 economic growth projected between 4.7% and 4.9%[3] U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement two more rate cuts, although the market has already priced in approximately 4.7 rate cuts by the end of next year, limiting further rate reduction space[3] - Market sentiment regarding tariffs is divided, with optimistic views suggesting a quick rebound in U.S. and Chinese stock markets, while pessimistic views foresee potential corrections due to a lack of substantial concessions[3] Market Trends - Following the tariff-related adjustments, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase from October to November, with a potential shift from AI hardware to defensive sectors and industries supported by performance logic[3] - The bond market is experiencing a temporary downward adjustment in rates, with the 10-year yield expected to stabilize between 1.70% and 1.75% due to external risks and domestic economic fundamentals[4]