美联储主席鲍威尔：合理的基本情况是，关税对通胀的影响是短暂的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that tariffs have increased prices on certain goods [1] Group 1 - Tariffs have contributed to higher prices for some consumer products [1] - The impact of tariffs is being closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [1]

美国表示，针对巴西进口商品的新关税将在7天后生效。 ...

FOMC Statement - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to pass the interest rate decision with a voting ratio of 9-2, with Governors Bowman and Waller likely voting against it [1] - There is an anticipation of minimal substantive changes in the wording, possibly simplifying the expression of economic uncertainty and acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1] - The balance sheet reduction is likely to remain unchanged, with monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS [1] Interest Rate Outlook - There is a focus on how to interpret the "two rate cuts" implied by the June dot plot and whether there will be any clues regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The emphasis on economic data is expected to continue, maintaining a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting decision-making communication style [1] - The stance on inflation and tariffs may remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to price stability; if tariffs are highlighted as an upward risk to inflation, it could indicate a more hawkish tone than anticipated [1] Term and Independence - In response to frequent pressures from Trump, it is likely that there will be no substantial response, with a reaffirmation of maintaining independence and professionalism during the term [1]

据第一财经，特朗普表示，自8月1日起，印度将支付25%的关税，并为从俄罗斯购买商品支付罚 款。 ...

特朗普宣布对印度征收25%关税特朗普称，虽然印度是美国的朋友，但多年来他们的关税是世界上最高的，而且他们拥有所有国家中最激烈和令人厌恶的非货币贸易壁垒。 此外，印度一直从俄罗斯购买绝大部分军事装备，并且是俄罗斯与中国一起最大的能源买家。因此，从8月1日开始，印度将支付25%的关税，外加惩罚。 ...

汇丰银行：预计关税的直接影响对我们的收入影响相对温和。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The non - US copper market has low inventory, and the domestic copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term price lacks an obvious upward driver. Zinc has an increase in supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak. The aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short - sold, and the fundamentals of tin are weak. Lead shows a range - bound trend, and nickel and stainless steel are in a weak situation [3][4][5][6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Part One: Logic of Non - ferrous Metals Operation and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector adjusts and falls after taking profits in the domestic anti - involution stage. The market focuses on trade negotiations and domestic policies. The US - EU trade agreement boosts the US dollar, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals [11] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: It is expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 and pressure at 80000 - 82000. Suggested to buy at low prices [13] - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23100. Suggested to short at high prices [13] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is expected to be weakly volatile. Suggested short - selling for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [13][14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000. Suggested short - selling [14] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400. Suggested to buy at low prices [14][15] - **Nickel**: It is expected to be bearish, with support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 122000 - 123000. Suggested to short at high prices [15] - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 12300 - 12400 and pressure at 12800 - 13000. Suggested to short at high prices [15] 2. Part Two: Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market - The closing prices and daily changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are presented [16] 3. Part Three: Position Analysis of Non - ferrous Metals - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on net long and short positions, their changes, and influencing factors for different varieties [18] 4. Part Four: Spot Market of Non - ferrous Metals - The spot prices and daily changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [19][21] 5. Part Five: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][26][28][33][39][41][46][52] 6. Part Six: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel are presented, including ratio changes, basis, and spread trends [54][56][59][62][66][69][70] 7. Part Seven: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of copper, zinc, and aluminum are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [72][73][75]

Trade Negotiations - US and China are expected to extend the trade truce for another three months, agreeing not to impose additional tariffs or escalate the trade war [1] - The extension involves the reinstatement of the suspended 24% portion of US tariffs and corresponding Chinese countermeasures for 90 days [1] - Trade teams will maintain close communication [1] Key Issues - Discussions will focus on major sticking points, such as US concerns about China's excess industrial capacity [1] - China is expected to pressure the US regarding fentanyl tariffs [1]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, indicating that the global economy maintains a fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainties [1] - Compared to the April forecast, the IMF has slightly upgraded the global growth outlook [2] Growth Projections - The global economic growth is expected to reach 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the April forecast, but lower than the 3.3% in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% [3] - The upgrade in the 2025 forecast is broad-based, attributed to strong preemptive actions in international trade, lower global effective tariff rates, and improved global financial conditions [3] Advanced Economies - For advanced economies, growth is projected at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [4] - In the United States, the growth rate is expected to be 1.9% in 2025, up by 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast, with a slight increase to 2.0% in 2026 [4] - The Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with the 2025 forecast raised by 0.2 percentage points mainly due to strong GDP growth in Ireland [4] Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026 [5] - China's growth forecast for 2025 has been raised by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and significant reductions in US-China tariffs [5] - India's growth is projected at 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026, slightly higher than previous forecasts due to a more favorable external environment [6] Regional Growth Expectations - The Middle East and Central Asia are expected to see growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 [7] - Sub-Saharan Africa's growth is projected at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026 [8] - Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see a decline to 2.2% in 2025, with a recovery to 2.4% in 2026 [9] Inflation and Trade - Global inflation is expected to continue declining, with an overall rate projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [12] - The IMF has adjusted the global trade volume forecast upward by 0.9 percentage points for 2025, while lowering the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points [11] Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or Ukraine, may pose new supply shocks to the global economy, potentially leading to increased commodity prices and inflationary pressures [14]