Core Viewpoint - In December, domestic LLDPE prices declined, with varying degrees of losses among different production raw material companies [1] Group 1: Market Overview - In December, the domestic PE market experienced price fluctuations and a downward trend, influenced by a weak overall crude oil market and increased supply [1] - The average price of LLDPE at the end of December was 6686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.78% month-on-month and 25.17% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Upstream Cost Analysis - The average production cost for naphtha-based LLDPE film material decreased by 178 yuan/ton to 6885 yuan/ton, a drop of 2.52% [3] - The average production cost for coal-based LLDPE film material fell by 347 yuan/ton to 6698 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.93% [3] - The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was 57.87 USD/barrel, down 2.71% month-on-month and 16.97% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Profit Margin Insights - The average profit margin for coal-based LLDPE film material production was -241 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to November, indicating a slight alleviation of losses [4] - The average profit margin for naphtha-based LLDPE film material production was -314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 131 yuan/ton from November, indicating an increase in losses [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - The US State Department issued an emergency security warning, asking US citizens in Iran to leave immediately and make departure plans without relying on US government assistance [3]. - Trump said that Iran called to negotiate on the nuclear issue yesterday, and the US may meet with them. He also announced that starting from now, any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff on all its commercial activities with the US [4]. - The White House stated that diplomacy is the "preferred" option for the US to deal with the Iranian situation, but Trump will not hesitate to use the US military if necessary [4]. 2. Inventory - In the week ending January 2nd, US crude oil exports increased by 823,000 barrels per day to 4.263 million barrels per day [4]. - In the same week, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.871 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.86% compared to the same period last year [5]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5]. - In the week ending January 2nd, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.339 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.386 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. 3. Weekly Quotes | Date | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1 - 2 month spread | WTI - BRENT | DUBAI - BRENT (EFS) | NYMEX RB | RBOB - BRENT | NYMEX HO | HO - BRENT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | 57.13 | 60.70 | 59.16 | 0.74 | 0.39 | - 3.57 | 1.31 | 170.06 | 10.73 | 208.30 | 26.79 | | 2026/01/07 | 55.99 | 59.96 | 58.35 | 0.84 | 0.38 | - 3.97 | 1.41 | 169.45 | 11.21 | 205.67 | 26.42 | | 2026/01/08 | 57.76 | 61.99 | 60.08 | 0.89 | 0.50 | - 4.23 | 1.30 | 176.03 | 11.94 | 211.95 | 27.03 | | 2026/01/09 | 59.12 | 63.34 | 61.02 | 0.89 | 0.55 | - 4.22 | 1.38 | 178.06 | 11.45 | 213.50 | 26.33 | | 2026/01/12 | 59.50 | 63.87 | 61.17 | - | 0.65 | - 4.37 | 1.94 | 179.38 | 11.47 | 215.44 | 26.61 | | Change | 0.38 | 0.53 | 0.15 | - | 0.10 | - 0.15 | 0.56 | 1.32 | 0.02 | 1.94 | 0.28 | | Date | SC | OMAN | SC - BRENT | SC - WTI | Domestic Gasoline | Domestic Gasoline - BRENT | Domestic Diesel | Domestic Diesel - BRENT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | | 428.20 | 58.86 | 0.32 | 3.89 | 7090 | 3542 | 5743 | 2612 | | 2026/01/07 | | 416.30 | 57.98 | - 0.65 | 3.32 | 7050 | 3544 | 5711 | 2618 | | 2026/01/08 | | 416.20 | 59.98 | - 2.70 | 1.53 | 7010 | 3385 | 5673 | 2475 | | 2026/01/09 | | 432.70 | 61.37 | - 1.64 | 2.58 | 7040 | 3340 | 5717 | 2452 | | 2026/01/12 | | 437.50 | 61.63 | - 1.47 | 2.90 | 7080 | 3350 | - | - | | Change | | 4.80 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 40.00 | 10.00 | - | - | | Date | Japanese Naphtha CFR | Japanese Naphtha - BRENT | Singapore Fuel Oil 380CST Premium | Singapore 380 - BRENT | SHFE FU Main Contract | SHFE FU - BRENT | SHFE BU Main Contract | SHFE BU - BRENT | HH Natural Gas | BFO | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | 534.25 | 88.11 | - 2.0 | - 103.24 | 2479 | - 92.88 | 3144 | 1.89 | - | 61.92 | | 2026/01/07 | 532.75 | 92.04 | - 1.5 | - 98.31 | 2437 | - 93.49 | 3160 | 9.52 | 3.100 | 61.51 | | 2026/01/08 | 540.75 | 85.12 | - 1.9 | - 119.97 | 2458 | - 105.47 | 3132 | - 9.45 | 3.100 | 64.04 | | 2026/01/09 | 551.25 | 85.70 | - 1.43 | - 124.12 | 2514 | - 107.06 | 3171 | - 13.38 | 2.890 | 64.81 | | 2026/01/12 | - | - | - 1.22 | - 130.52 | 2461 | - 118.64 | 3157 | - 19.14 | 2.890 | 64.81 | | Change | - | - | 0.21 | - 6.40 | - 53 | - 11.58 | - 14 | - 5.76 | - 0.210 | 0.77 | [3][14]

客户端 国内原油连续三天震荡上行，隔夜市场WTI 2月合约收盘上涨0.38美元至59.50美元/桶，涨幅0.64%。布 伦特3月合约收盘上涨0.53美元至63.87美元/桶，涨幅0.84%。伊朗局势或导致全球原油供应调整，同时 乌克兰袭击俄罗斯的能源设施，市场持续计价地缘风险，内外盘共振，短期油价整体重心或呈现震荡上 移的格局。 隔夜市场伊朗局势再次紧张。1月12日，美宣布对与伊朗贸易的国家加征25%关税，并威胁采取军事行 动，美伊紧张局势骤然升级。由于伊朗的特殊地理位置，加之其在中东地区的重要角色，一旦与美国的 冲突加剧，势必会引发地缘紧张情绪的升温，从而造成油价的剧烈波动。更为重要的是，伊朗掌握着海 湾地区石油的运输命脉，霍尔木兹海峡，一旦伊朗因受到威胁而封锁该海峡，势必会斩断中东地区原油 的对外输出的最大途径，并造成供应中断的风险。海湾产油国的原油日均产量为33.43百万桶/日，占全 球总供应量的31.7%。一旦这些原油无法对外输出，这才是对全球供应格局的致命打击。如果后续军事 冲突涉及石油设施，油价整体重心上行的概率较大；若未涉及，油价还将面临反复。整体来看，伊朗事 件必然会加剧短期风险溢价的上升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall outlook of bullish operation [1] - Due to geopolitical risks, the domestic crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a bullish and volatile trend on Tuesday [5] 3. Summary of Key Points Price and Market Outlook - For crude oil 2603, short - term is volatile, medium - term is volatile, and intraday is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1] Core Logic - The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals, and the US threatens a new round of military strikes on Iran, intensifying Middle East geopolitical risks. The weak supply - demand pattern of the oil market is gradually weakened, and the geopolitical factors support the domestic crude oil futures prices to maintain a bullish and volatile trend on Tuesday [5] Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading, calculate the price change from the night - trading closing price to the day - trading closing price; for those without night trading, calculate from the previous day's closing price to the day - trading closing price [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong [3] - The bullish/bearish description only applies to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [4]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in Q1 2026 [2] Precious Metals - International gold and silver hit new highs. Geopolitical chaos and concerns about the Fed's independence make precious metals easy to rise and hard to fall [3] Copper - Overnight copper prices rose. Sentiment from Powell's possible prosecution and market spread logistics support copper prices. A previous option strategy can still be held [4] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum briefly broke through 25,000 yuan and then fell. It's important to see if it can stabilize above 24,800 yuan. Aluminum producers can consider selling hedging [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It follows aluminum price fluctuations passively. Scrap aluminum is tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than usual [6] Alumina - Domestic operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with a significant surplus. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures face resistance at 3,000 yuan [7] Zinc - Domestic and imported ore TC are low. Supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. Consumption is picking up after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate between 23,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Bullish sentiment is strong in the Shanghai lead market. The cost of recycled lead is rising, providing support. It is expected to fluctuate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is active. Stainless steel production is expected to increase in January. The short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10] Tin - Overnight, Shanghai tin continued to rise. The market gives high premiums to semiconductor consumption and geopolitics. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11] Lithium Carbonate - It hit the daily limit again. Demand is expected to surge in Q1. The inventory situation is complex, and the futures price is strong but with high short - term uncertainty [12] Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate. Consider short - selling if it breaks through 9,000 yuan/ton [13] Polysilicon - The cancellation of export tax rebates boosts short - term demand, but the market sentiment is weak. The price is seeking cost support [14] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices were weak at night. Demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and inventory is changing. Iron ore supply is strong, and demand is weak. Both are expected to fluctuate [15][16] Coke and Coking Coal - Both prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season [17][18] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon prices fell. The manganese ore inventory has a structural problem. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, and demand has some resilience. Both suggest buying on dips [19][20] Group 2: Chemicals Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The cancellation of export tax rebates may stimulate pre - shipment. The impact on spot freight rates needs further observation [21] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil follows crude oil. Geopolitical risks affect high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur supply is expected to increase [22] Asphalt - Crude oil rebounds, but asphalt futures are weak. Pay attention to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23] Urea - The futures price is firm. Production is increasing, and demand is picking up. The price may decline slightly in the short - term [24] Methanol - Overseas supply is low, and domestic production is high. Demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increase is weakening [25] Pure Benzene - Import is sufficient, and the port inventory is high. It is affected by oil prices in the short - term and has difficulty in de - stocking in the long - term [26] Styrene - Crude oil price increase supports the cost. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is rising [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Supply is supported. Polyethylene has cost support, and polypropylene has reduced production due to more maintenance [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is weak. It may have export - driven arbitrage opportunities. Caustic soda is weak, and the industry may face profit compression [29] PX and PTA - Polyester demand will decline, but oil price rebound provides support. PX has a strong long - term expectation, and PTA's processing margin is moderately repaired [30] Ethylene Glycol - Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. It is under pressure in the short - term and may improve in Q2 [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber demand is weakening, and bottle - chip demand is turning weak. Both follow raw material prices [32] Group 3: Building Materials Glass - It is weak. Supply is shrinking, and demand is insufficient. Consider buying on dips after a long - term decline [33] Rubber - Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is increasing. Demand is slowly recovering. The strategy is to go long on natural rubber and wait and see on butadiene rubber [34] Soda Ash - It is weak. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [35] Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybeans, Bean Meal, and Bean Oil - USDA data shows an increase in soybean supply. Bean meal may follow the weak trend of US soybeans. Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by supply, policy, and weather [36][37] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The US Department of Agriculture report is bearish on rapeseed. The market expects the improvement of China - Canada relations to put pressure on rapeseed prices [38] Domestic Soybeans - Spot prices are rising. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. Pay attention to policies and the spot market [39] Corn - Northeast spot prices are firm. US corn prices fell after the USDA report. Dalian corn futures are expected to fluctuate widely [40] Livestock and Poultry - Pig prices are oscillating. Supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and a second bottom is possible in the medium - long term. Egg prices may strengthen in H1 2026 due to supply and demand changes [41][42] Cotton - US cotton prices are strong due to reduced production. Zhengzhou cotton is adjusting. Demand is stable in the off - season [43] Sugar - International sugar production varies by country. Domestic sugar may rebound weakly due to production expectations [44] Apples - Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. The market focuses on demand, and the high price and poor quality may affect inventory clearance [45] Wood and Pulp - Wood prices are low. Supply and demand are weak, and low inventory provides some support. Pulp prices are limited by weak demand, and inventory is increasing [46][47] Group 5: Financial Products Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index had a 17 - day consecutive rise. A - share trading volume hit a record high. The stock index futures are expected to be strong [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose on January 12. A bull - flattening trend between 10 - 30Y is expected [48]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [2] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a temporary spike, briefly surpassing $4600 before slightly retreating, influenced by the market's reaction to the investigation news [2] - The dollar saw significant selling pressure as investors shifted towards gold, contributing to the upward movement in gold prices [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly CPI and retail sales, are expected to influence market sentiment; a CPI exceeding expectations could reignite dollar strength, while a modest core CPI increase may not alter the current trend [2] - The mixed employment report from the previous week had initially supported the dollar but subsequently led to a reversal in market sentiment [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current upward trend in gold remains strong, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, making bearish positions illogical without clear reversal signals [3] - Momentum indicators suggest the market is overbought, but this alone is not a sufficient reason to sell [3] Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support for gold is identified between $4500 and $4550, a psychologically significant range due to its historical high in December [4] - If this support level is breached, the next potential support is around $4380, followed by a trendline support near $4350 [4] - The absence of clear resistance points suggests that the next targets for gold prices could be $4600 and $4700, with Fibonacci extension levels at $4625, $4687, and $4720 being critical for profit-taking strategies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have driven up crude oil prices, with the Iranian situation worsening and short - term sentiment premiums likely to continue [2]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence due to the investigation of Powell have led to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [2]. - Steel prices may first rise and then fall, showing a range - bound trend due to cost support and weakening demand [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate due to inventory pressure, supply uncertainties, and demand support [4]. - The supply - demand structure of coke may tighten, and the futures price will follow coking coal and fluctuate [5]. - Hog prices will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games, and attention should be paid to the slaughter volume and sow culling [5]. - Palm oil prices are supported by improved exports and lower production in January, but are suppressed by inventory accumulation [6]. - Spot prices of soybean meal have increased, but the upside is limited due to high inventory levels, and the 05 contract is in a shock - consolidation phase [6]. - Tightening of the capital market is negative for the bond market, and the volatility of treasury bonds has increased [7]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and monetary easing expectations, but the upward momentum needs attention [7]. - PX is in an adjustment phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Natural rubber prices will show a wide - range fluctuation [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [10]. - Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - PVC prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [12]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short term [13]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - In December 2025, Iran's daily crude oil export volume decreased by 100,000 barrels, and daily production decreased from nearly 4 million barrels in September to 3.24 million barrels in December due to US sanctions. Venezuela's daily crude oil supply decreased by 70,000 barrels in December 2025, and the impact is expected to intensify in January 2026 [2]. Gold - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - On January 12, domestic steel prices rose slightly. The price of billets in Tangshan increased by 10 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar increased by 5 yuan to 3342 yuan/ton. High costs support steel prices, but weak demand may limit the upward trend [4]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 162.7526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.0437 million tons. The daily port clearance volume decreased by 1.94 tons to 3.2327 million tons, and the number of ships in port increased by 11 to 116 [4]. Coke - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.69%, an increase of 0.97%. Daily coke production was 635,700 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. Coke inventory decreased by 55,300 tons to 860,700 tons, and coking coal inventory increased by 191,800 tons to 10.7168 million tons [5]. Hog - On January 12, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.83 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease from last Friday. Egg prices increased by 0.8% to 7.61 yuan/kg. Hog prices showed mixed trends, and the price will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games [5]. Palm Oil - In December, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons. Production decreased by 5.46% to 1.8298 million tons, consumption decreased by 14.01% to 319,700 tons, and exports increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons. The January export situation has improved [6]. Soybean Meal - In the second week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,700 tons (0.40%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.0856 million tons (17.96%). The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 126,200 tons (10.78%) and a year - on - year increase of 439,400 tons (72.68%) [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased. The overnight rate increased by 4.4BP to 1.316%, the 7 - day rate increased by 1.2BP to 1.473%, the 14 - day rate increased by 0.2BP to 1.489%, and the 1 - month rate decreased by 0.1BP to 1.556% [7]. Silver - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and a rise in silver prices [7]. PTA - The domestic PX load was 90.9% (+0.3%), and the Asian PX load was 81.3% (+0.4%). Some domestic factories increased short - process production, and some overseas devices restarted. PX supply remains high in January [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material latex was 57 baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, US tire imports increased by 5.4% year - on - year [9]. Aluminum - On January 12, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan was 24,390 yuan/ton, a single - day increase of 290 yuan/ton. The high price and high basis have led to strong selling intentions of holders, but weak downstream purchasing [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,239 yuan/ton. Weekly production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Factory inventory increased by 11.67% to 1.5727 million tons. The float glass operating rate decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.03%, and the average price increased by 7 yuan to 1,083 yuan/ton. Glass inventory decreased by 2.37% to 55.518 million weight boxes [11]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 PVC was 4,620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, an increase of 1.04%. Social inventory increased by 3.48% to 1.1141 million tons. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC producers was - 634 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers was - 192 yuan/ton [12]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The 500,000 - ton/year methanol device of Jiuyuan Chemical is expected to end maintenance this week. Downstream capacity utilization decreased by 0.49% to 73.54%. Port inventory increased by 40,800 tons to 1.5372 million tons, and production enterprise inventory increased by 25,100 tons to 447,700 tons [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the short - term drive up oil prices, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in the global crude oil market in Q1 2026 [3] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil mainly follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical situations affect both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets [4] - The recent rebound in crude oil has little impact on asphalt futures prices, and the reduction of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply [5] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Iran is tense but controllable, and the US continues to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, which drives up oil prices in the short - term [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply - demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus restricts the upward space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical tensions are the key driving factors [4] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, US military actions against Venezuela may affect heavy - crude oil supply, and domestic refineries may increase fuel oil use as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Inventory consumption may appear in late March, and raw material procurement demand may support the high - sulfur market after the Spring Festival in mid - February [4] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Azur refinery's CDU device has fully resumed operation, and the supply scale is expected to gradually increase. The overseas supply rebound brings loose pressure, keeping the fundamentals weak [4] Asphalt - The recent crude oil rebound has not affected asphalt futures prices significantly [5] - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, and the current market has priced in the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [5]

Tabl e_Title 2026 年 1 月 12 日 大类资产运行周报（20260105-20260109） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 1.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 1.48% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.03% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.16% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.01% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.69% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 1.23% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.41% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251013 -20251017）-多重风险事 ...

黄金最新行情趋势分析： 1月12日，黄金消息面解析：上周五（1月9日）美国劳工部公布了2025年12月非农就业报告。数据显 示，当月新增就业岗位5万个，低于华尔街经济学家普遍预期的7.3万个，也弱于11月修正后的5.6万个。 这标志着美国劳动力市场在2025年末进一步放缓，全年招聘需求明显减弱。不过，失业率意外降至 4.4%，优于预期的4.5%，为市场带来一定支撑。数据公布后，金融市场反应温和但方向分化。黄金市 场并不需要利率下降才能继续走高，但在疲弱的劳动力市场数据公布后，市场对美联储转向鸽派的预期 正在为黄金上涨增加动能。在美国劳工统计局公布12月就业增长弱于预期后，金价开始测试4500美元的 初步阻力位。周五（1月9日）美市尾盘，现货黄金收报4509.03美元/盎司，上涨31.86美元/盎司，涨幅 0.71%，本周上涨176.83美元或4.08%。尽管劳动力市场有所放缓，但经济学家指出，其韧性仍足以支撑 经济活动。这种组合使美联储相信劳动力市场正在按计划降温。对投资者而言，这进一步强化了2026年 初降息的理由。尽管本月晚些时候并没有紧迫的降息需求，但分析人士认为，利率下行路径将继续为贵 金属提供中期支 ...