Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have driven up crude oil prices, with the Iranian situation worsening and short - term sentiment premiums likely to continue [2]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence due to the investigation of Powell have led to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [2]. - Steel prices may first rise and then fall, showing a range - bound trend due to cost support and weakening demand [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate due to inventory pressure, supply uncertainties, and demand support [4]. - The supply - demand structure of coke may tighten, and the futures price will follow coking coal and fluctuate [5]. - Hog prices will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games, and attention should be paid to the slaughter volume and sow culling [5]. - Palm oil prices are supported by improved exports and lower production in January, but are suppressed by inventory accumulation [6]. - Spot prices of soybean meal have increased, but the upside is limited due to high inventory levels, and the 05 contract is in a shock - consolidation phase [6]. - Tightening of the capital market is negative for the bond market, and the volatility of treasury bonds has increased [7]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and monetary easing expectations, but the upward momentum needs attention [7]. - PX is in an adjustment phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Natural rubber prices will show a wide - range fluctuation [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [10]. - Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - PVC prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [12]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short term [13]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - In December 2025, Iran's daily crude oil export volume decreased by 100,000 barrels, and daily production decreased from nearly 4 million barrels in September to 3.24 million barrels in December due to US sanctions. Venezuela's daily crude oil supply decreased by 70,000 barrels in December 2025, and the impact is expected to intensify in January 2026 [2]. Gold - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - On January 12, domestic steel prices rose slightly. The price of billets in Tangshan increased by 10 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar increased by 5 yuan to 3342 yuan/ton. High costs support steel prices, but weak demand may limit the upward trend [4]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 162.7526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.0437 million tons. The daily port clearance volume decreased by 1.94 tons to 3.2327 million tons, and the number of ships in port increased by 11 to 116 [4]. Coke - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.69%, an increase of 0.97%. Daily coke production was 635,700 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. Coke inventory decreased by 55,300 tons to 860,700 tons, and coking coal inventory increased by 191,800 tons to 10.7168 million tons [5]. Hog - On January 12, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.83 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease from last Friday. Egg prices increased by 0.8% to 7.61 yuan/kg. Hog prices showed mixed trends, and the price will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games [5]. Palm Oil - In December, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons. Production decreased by 5.46% to 1.8298 million tons, consumption decreased by 14.01% to 319,700 tons, and exports increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons. The January export situation has improved [6]. Soybean Meal - In the second week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,700 tons (0.40%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.0856 million tons (17.96%). The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 126,200 tons (10.78%) and a year - on - year increase of 439,400 tons (72.68%) [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased. The overnight rate increased by 4.4BP to 1.316%, the 7 - day rate increased by 1.2BP to 1.473%, the 14 - day rate increased by 0.2BP to 1.489%, and the 1 - month rate decreased by 0.1BP to 1.556% [7]. Silver - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and a rise in silver prices [7]. PTA - The domestic PX load was 90.9% (+0.3%), and the Asian PX load was 81.3% (+0.4%). Some domestic factories increased short - process production, and some overseas devices restarted. PX supply remains high in January [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material latex was 57 baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, US tire imports increased by 5.4% year - on - year [9]. Aluminum - On January 12, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan was 24,390 yuan/ton, a single - day increase of 290 yuan/ton. The high price and high basis have led to strong selling intentions of holders, but weak downstream purchasing [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,239 yuan/ton. Weekly production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Factory inventory increased by 11.67% to 1.5727 million tons. The float glass operating rate decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.03%, and the average price increased by 7 yuan to 1,083 yuan/ton. Glass inventory decreased by 2.37% to 55.518 million weight boxes [11]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 PVC was 4,620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, an increase of 1.04%. Social inventory increased by 3.48% to 1.1141 million tons. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC producers was - 634 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers was - 192 yuan/ton [12]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The 500,000 - ton/year methanol device of Jiuyuan Chemical is expected to end maintenance this week. Downstream capacity utilization decreased by 0.49% to 73.54%. Port inventory increased by 40,800 tons to 1.5372 million tons, and production enterprise inventory increased by 25,100 tons to 447,700 tons [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the short - term drive up oil prices, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in the global crude oil market in Q1 2026 [3] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil mainly follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical situations affect both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets [4] - The recent rebound in crude oil has little impact on asphalt futures prices, and the reduction of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply [5] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Iran is tense but controllable, and the US continues to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, which drives up oil prices in the short - term [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply - demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus restricts the upward space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical tensions are the key driving factors [4] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, US military actions against Venezuela may affect heavy - crude oil supply, and domestic refineries may increase fuel oil use as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Inventory consumption may appear in late March, and raw material procurement demand may support the high - sulfur market after the Spring Festival in mid - February [4] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Azur refinery's CDU device has fully resumed operation, and the supply scale is expected to gradually increase. The overseas supply rebound brings loose pressure, keeping the fundamentals weak [4] Asphalt - The recent crude oil rebound has not affected asphalt futures prices significantly [5] - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, and the current market has priced in the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [5]

Tabl e_Title 2026 年 1 月 12 日 大类资产运行周报（20260105-20260109） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 1.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 1.48% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.03% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.16% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.01% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.69% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 1.23% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.41% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251013 -20251017）-多重风险事 ...

黄金最新行情趋势分析： 1月12日，黄金消息面解析：上周五（1月9日）美国劳工部公布了2025年12月非农就业报告。数据显 示，当月新增就业岗位5万个，低于华尔街经济学家普遍预期的7.3万个，也弱于11月修正后的5.6万个。 这标志着美国劳动力市场在2025年末进一步放缓，全年招聘需求明显减弱。不过，失业率意外降至 4.4%，优于预期的4.5%，为市场带来一定支撑。数据公布后，金融市场反应温和但方向分化。黄金市 场并不需要利率下降才能继续走高，但在疲弱的劳动力市场数据公布后，市场对美联储转向鸽派的预期 正在为黄金上涨增加动能。在美国劳工统计局公布12月就业增长弱于预期后，金价开始测试4500美元的 初步阻力位。周五（1月9日）美市尾盘，现货黄金收报4509.03美元/盎司，上涨31.86美元/盎司，涨幅 0.71%，本周上涨176.83美元或4.08%。尽管劳动力市场有所放缓，但经济学家指出，其韧性仍足以支撑 经济活动。这种组合使美联储相信劳动力市场正在按计划降温。对投资者而言，这进一步强化了2026年 初降息的理由。尽管本月晚些时候并没有紧迫的降息需求，但分析人士认为，利率下行路径将继续为贵 金属提供中期支 ...

美国降息预期升温叠加地缘风险加剧等因素推动下，1月12日国际贵金属价格大涨，金银价格盘中均刷新 历史高点。 外盘方面，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中涨逾2%，最高触及4612.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主力合 约盘中涨逾6%，最高触及84.57美元/盎司。 卓创资讯贵金属分析师黄加奇也分析，本次行情上涨的驱动力主要来自两方面。一方面，特朗普就降息 力度问题再度向美联储现任主席鲍威尔施压，且财长贝森特预计，特朗普将在1月19日—23日举行的达沃 斯论坛前后就下任美联储主席人选做出决定，此外12月非农数据不及预期，交易者对后续降息路径偏鸽 定价。 另一方面，地缘碎片化影响持续发酵，伊朗近期因物价上涨，社会不稳定因素上升，美国考虑干涉伊朗 方案，而同时美国与丹麦、委内瑞拉之间就关键资源和领土问题存有争端，特朗普对国际法的表态也使 得地缘局势前景不确定性上升，市场避险需求支撑贵金属溢价。 黄加奇认为，目前黄金、白银均位于历史高位，且短期急涨幅度较大，技术形态上方阻力有所加大，且 短期需要关注彭博大宗商品指数再平衡对贵金属的权重削减和芝商所上调黄金、白银保证金比例可能造 成的利空影响。但长期来看，美联储降息周期尚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lead prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and industry dynamics, leading to a positive outlook for the lead market [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai lead futures market saw an increase, with the main contract closing at 17,440 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan or 0.72% [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,057.5 USD, an increase of 11 USD [1]. - The average price for domestic lead in the ccmn market rose to 17,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 150 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained by seasonal maintenance and slow release of new capacity, leading to limited growth in primary lead production [2]. - Recycled lead production is also affected by tight raw material supply and high costs, with some companies planning early holidays [2]. - The global visible inventory of lead has dropped to historical lows, increasing price sensitivity to supply disruptions or demand recovery [2]. Group 3: Industry Structure - The lead industry is characterized by a "tight upstream and stable downstream" structure, with profits concentrated in the resource sector due to tight supply and low processing fees [3]. - The midstream smelting sector faces increased competition and pressure from raw material costs and environmental regulations, leading to higher industry concentration [3]. - Downstream battery manufacturers are experiencing pressure on profit margins due to high raw material prices and elevated finished goods inventory [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term support for lead prices is expected from improved macro sentiment, geopolitical risk premiums, low industry inventory, and tight supply conditions [4]. - Long-term price trends will depend on key variables such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, developments in geopolitical risks, and sustained demand growth in the energy storage sector [4]. - There is a need to be cautious of potential resistance from downstream sectors and changes in market sentiment following rapid price increases [4].

Group 1 - The international precious metals market is experiencing an upward trend in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching $4,580.74 per ounce and silver futures at $83.475 per ounce, influenced by multiple factors [1] - Geopolitical tensions, such as protests in Iran and discussions between the UK and Germany regarding military presence in Greenland, have increased investor interest in safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Recent U.S. employment data showed mixed results, with job growth below expectations but a decrease in the unemployment rate, leading to speculation about potential adjustments in Federal Reserve interest rates [3] Group 2 - Technically, gold prices are maintaining an upward trend within a rising channel, currently above the 200-period simple moving average, which provides dynamic support in the $4,325-$4,320 range [4] - The MACD indicator shows positive momentum, while the RSI is at 71.82, suggesting potential overbought conditions that may limit short-term price increases [6] - Silver prices are moving in tandem with gold but exhibit greater volatility, with recent gains attributed to both industrial and financial demand [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [5] Core Viewpoints - The prices of January CP propane and butane have strengthened beyond expectations, but domestic demand remains stagnant. Combustion demand is basically stable but weaker year - on - year, and although the chemical demand maintains high - level operation, the profits are deeply in the red, so it's hard to say that the demand is improving. In the short term, the PG price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situations on the PG price [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - During this period, the main contract of LPG futures trended upward, with a fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,250 yuan/ton. The positive news of the high - opening of January CP still exists, and some downstream users replenished their stocks after the New Year's Day. Most of the domestic markets rose, and the price in South China reached over 5,000 yuan. The market sentiment was strong, and the LPG futures outperformed crude oil under the support of domestic and international spot prices. However, the demand side did not improve. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 268 yuan/ton, in South China was 656 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 201 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. As of Thursday this week, the total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,248 lots [6] Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 51.81 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 21.68 million tons (a decrease of 3.26%), industrial gas was 18.95 million tons (an increase of 1.12%), and ether - after C4 was 16.73 million tons (an increase of 1.33%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 53 million tons (a decrease of 7.04%). During the week, some enterprises in East China and Northeast China used resources internally, and the external sales volume of an individual enterprise in Shaanxi increased, resulting in a decrease in the weekly commercial volume [5] Demand - In winter, the heating demand remains, and the combustion demand for LPG is gradually improving, reaching a relatively high level. PDH plants are operating at a high load, but the plant profit losses are intensifying. The propane procurement demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, but there have been reports of plant production cuts recently, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually, leading to a decline in propane chemical demand. MTBE profits are in the red, the overseas olefin blending demand has slowed down, the domestic export window has closed, most orders have been executed, and it is difficult for refineries to maintain high - level operation, which in turn restricts the price trend of civil gas [5] Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 213.20 million tons (a decrease of 0.41%), and the port inventory was 249.60 million tons. On the refinery side, the high import cost continued to provide positive support. Coupled with downstream replenishment after the festival, the market trading atmosphere was good, and each manufacturer's shipments were stable, resulting in a decrease in inventory. On the port side, the number of arriving ships this period was limited. Except for the increase in arriving ships in South China and Fujian, the number in other areas decreased, and the import resource supply was insufficient. The terminals mainly focused on inventory digestion [5] Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 246 yuan/ton in East China, 619 yuan/ton in South China, and 179 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,218 lots, an increase of 30 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was Shandong [5][9] Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were [not clearly stated]. The profits of PDH to propylene were - 832 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 70 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 330 yuan/ton [5] Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.33 (an increase of 2.04%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 85 yuan/ton (a decrease of 28.57%). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil price showed a downward trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5] Other Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 was the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a nationwide network control, which is related to ongoing protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The events of the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers have fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [5] Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, pay attention to PG2 - 3 positive spreads, PG3 - 4 reverse spreads, long SC and short PG, and long PP and short PG [5]

华安期货：1月12日黄金/白银震荡偏强思路 重要信息： 全球增加官方黄金储备的趋势、公共债务高企带来的主权货币危机及工业领域的广阔应用前景等因素继续为贵金属提供中长期 支撑。短期因素，美联储下一任主席人选公布在即；近期全球地缘风险频发。总体，在不确定性较高的经济金融环境下，预计 黄金仍维持震荡偏强态势。 市场展望： 震荡偏强思路，需控制仓位，注意风险。本周关注美国CPI，中国贸易及社融指标。 2、美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值54，创四个月新高，预期为升至53.5。 3、财政部、税务总局发布公告，自4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 核心逻辑: 1、美国2025年12月季调后非农就业人口增加5万人，低于市场预期的6万人，11月数据下修8000人至增加5.6万人，10月则从减少 10.5万人进一步下修至减少17.3万人；12月失业率降至4.4%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged dramatically, reaching $4600, with previous resistance levels being easily surpassed [1][7] - There is a prevailing sense of urgency among both holders and non-holders of gold, driven by fears of missing out or the potential for a market correction [2][5] - The recent U.S. non-farm employment data presents mixed signals, with a strong employment rate but a declining unemployment rate, raising questions about the data's reliability and its implications for monetary policy [2][3] Group 2 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a one-sided upward trend in gold prices, with significant breakthroughs in key resistance levels following the non-farm data release [9] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been increasing margin requirements to temper the exuberant bullish sentiment among traders, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4] - Technical analysis suggests that the price of gold is expected to continue rising, with key levels identified for potential entry points and stop-loss placements [9]