当代年轻人理财，总在"躺平"和"氪金"之间反复横跳。在股市里，韭菜们还在为 "关灯吃面" 的段子自嘲时，黄金市场早已开启了一场低调的 财富保卫战。自从2024年现货黄金价格如脱缰野马般冲破 3000 美元 / 盎司，这场逆袭，让全球投资者集体见证了什么叫 "物理属性的浪漫"。 当今世界，地缘政治局势复杂多变，地区冲突、贸易摩擦等因素此起彼伏。这些地缘风险事件的发生，使得市场避险情绪不断升温，投资者们 纷纷将目光投向黄金，从而推动了黄金价格的上涨。但传统黄金投资的高门槛，曾让普通投资者望而却步。实物金条需要成百上千美元起步， 纸黄金的流动性差，就连期货交易也得掏出数万元保证金。 直到万洲金业带着 "双低战略" 闯入市场，入金门槛降至 70 美元，点差压缩至20 美元/ 手，还全免交易佣金。更值得一提的是，万洲金业自主 研发的 MT5 智能交易系统，能像雷达一样实时捕捉全球市场波动，毫秒级执行交易指令。当其他平台还在为 "滑点" 问题焦头烂额时，万洲金 业的 "无滑点执行" 技术，配合多空双向操作和智能止盈止损，即使是刚入行的小白，也能在黄金市场的惊涛骇浪中稳稳掌舵。 当股票还在为某CEO发条推特玩蹦极时，黄金早 ...

新东方北京时间 4 月 23 日美股盘前发布了 2025 财年第三季度的业绩，对应的是 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 2 月寒假旺季的经营情况。 本次业绩点评仍然聚焦在教育业务，这次关注点还是在指引。尤其是关税引发的地缘风险扰动下，留学业务的增长前景不确定性加大。 具体来看： 1. 指引不佳，部分定价 最关注指引，但偏偏指引最 "拉胯"。相较于 3 月底公司调整后的预期而言，Q3 业绩基本符合预期，但公司对 Q4 核心教育收入指引则不佳，和机构预期落差较 大。 虽然未做拆分，但海豚君预计还是留学业务承压带来的影响为主（电话会透露预计增速继续下降至高个位数，保守预估 26 财年海外考培 5-10%，咨询零增长）。 这里机构对 Q4 预期偏高，主要原因：一方面是考虑到去年基数低，另一方面则是因为未料到关税引发的地缘对抗异常激烈。 因此，随着 4 月初关税引发的股价巨震， 市场预期肯定也做了一些调整和定价 。 但至于是否定价到位，很难说清。 但比较清晰的是， 由于后续关税仍然存在反 复和不确定性，双方牌局离结束尚早， 但地缘风险带来的担忧难以消除，还会继续对留学需求带来压制和削弱。 2. 遭遇 "双压" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of the US economy has increased, and the US dollar has continued to decline. The global risk appetite has generally increased, while the Chinese economy has shown signs of accelerated recovery, and policy support expectations have strengthened, providing strong support for the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to have a short - term volatile rebound; bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with black metals being weakly volatile, non - ferrous metals having a volatile rebound, energy and chemicals having a volatile rebound, and precious metals rising [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US President's threat to dismiss the Fed Chairman has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy. Due to tariff issues, the economic uncertainty has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [2]. - Domestic: China's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The State Council's executive meeting indicated an increase in counter - cyclical adjustment to support employment and foreign trade, strengthening policy support expectations [2]. Stock Index - Affected by the hotel, tourism, food processing, and agricultural sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. However, strong economic data, policy support, and the US President's softened attitude towards tariffs provided support for the domestic market, suggesting short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs. The US government's credit damage, geopolitical risks, and the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance have supported the strong performance of gold. Silver may follow gold in high - level oscillations but faces greater downward pressure [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to decline slightly, with low trading volumes. Policy expectations have increased. Demand has improved, but the "buy - on - rising" mentality and the seasonal transition have led to differentiated trading. Supply is at a high level, and short - term steel markets are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices declined slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and supply is expected to increase further. Short - term policy expectations support prices, but a long - term bearish view is held if steel demand remains weak [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices were flat. Demand was fair, and supply showed different trends. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5][6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices have rebounded in the short term but are expected to be bearish in the long term due to the expected increase in OPEC supply [8]. - **Asphalt**: It has stabilized slightly following oil prices. The market shows regional differences, and its fundamentals mainly follow oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PX**: It has rebounded with oil prices but remains in a weak oscillation pattern due to weak supply and demand [8]. - **PTA**: It maintains a weak oscillation pattern due to limited improvement in terminal orders and increased downstream inventory pressure [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It continues to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak supply - demand conditions [10][11]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with limited export volume and weak domestic demand [11]. - **Methanol**: The 05 contract oscillates, while the 09 contract may present short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **PP**: It is expected to have an oscillatory recovery due to reduced supply pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The near - month contract is supported by low inventory, while the 09 contract faces medium - to - long - term pressure [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by strong demand and policy expectations, copper prices are expected to continue their oscillatory rebound [12]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic fundamentals are good, with significant inventory reduction. It has short - term rebound potential but is bearish in the medium term [12][13]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually recovering but remains at a low level, and demand is differentiated. Tin prices are expected to rebound in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Low domestic inventory and potential planting delays support the price. The market's concern about the export supply chain has decreased [14]. - **Soybean Meal**: The recovery of domestic oil - mill operations is slow. The futures are supported, and the monthly spread is expected to be repaired [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is in the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has decreased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil is decreasing, while rapeseed oil faces high - inventory pressure and is at risk of a price decline [15]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic inventory is low, and the price is affected by cost and international market conditions [16].

Core Viewpoint - The sale of global port assets by Cheung Kong Holdings to BlackRock has triggered significant market reactions and raised concerns about potential geopolitical implications, particularly regarding China's strategic interests in global trade routes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the asset sale, the combined market value of Cheung Kong and three other companies plummeted by over 78.1 billion HKD, with Cheung Kong's stock dropping 16.49% over 11 trading days [1]. - Investors are worried not only about the asset sale itself but also about the signal it sends regarding a potential shift away from the Chinese market [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The ports in question handle 6% of global maritime trade, with 21.4% of Chinese shipping passing through the Panama Canal, highlighting their strategic importance [1]. - The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office criticized Li Ka-shing's actions, suggesting that the transaction could play a crucial role in the U.S. strategy to contain China [2]. - The Chinese government has indicated potential responses, including the possibility of sanctions against BlackRock if the transaction is perceived as being under U.S. pressure [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - State-owned enterprises like COSCO Shipping have expressed their commitment to monitoring global strategic ports and are accelerating investments in key locations such as Greece's Piraeus Port and Peru's Chancay Port [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is revising the Foreign Investment Law to impose stricter scrutiny on the transfer of overseas assets in critical infrastructure sectors, specifically targeting ports and energy [2]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - If the transaction proceeds, Cheung Kong may face scrutiny and sanctions from the Chinese government, potentially impacting its domestic operations across various sectors [5]. - Alternatively, if the transaction is terminated, Li Ka-shing could mitigate losses and potentially restore trust with the Chinese government, positioning himself as a patriotic businessman [6]. - The outcome of this situation is not just a business decision but also a matter of historical significance for Li Ka-shing, as it could define his legacy in the context of national interests versus capital pursuits [6].