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中原期货晨会纪要-20250812
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:17
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial results, and the determination and difficulty of the policy should not be underestimated. The summer travel consumption has a certain pulling effect on CPI, and future attention should be paid to the potential transmission of employment income. For PPI, the price has declined compared to last month, and the key to future price elasticity still lies in the demand side. The market is in a strong stage with high capital risk appetite, but the sector rotation is fast, and the market of strong sectors is difficult to last. It is recommended to cash in some profits at high prices and look for low-sucking opportunities for IF, IM, and IC [16][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On August 12, 2025, among chemical products, coke had the largest increase with a rise of 90.50 yuan and a growth rate of 5.384%, while 20 - number rubber had the largest decrease with a decline of 25.0 yuan and a decrease rate of -0.198% [3]. Agricultural Products - On August 12, 2025, among agricultural products, cotton had the largest increase with a rise of 220.0 yuan and a growth rate of 1.608%, while rapeseed meal had the largest decrease with a decline of 61.0 yuan and a decrease rate of -2.239% [3]. Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Education revised the management measures for funds supporting the development of preschool education. Ant Group and China National Rare Earth Group refuted the rumor of "co - building the world's first rare earth RMB stablecoin." Ningde Times' lithium mine suspension led to a full - board limit up of lithium carbonate futures and a rise in the spot and stock markets. Trump's team expanded the scope of candidates for the Fed Chairman. Mexico set a minimum export price for fresh tomatoes. The refined oil price may be stranded for the fourth time this year. Hangzhou solicited opinions on promoting the development of embodied intelligent robot industry [5][6][7]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but maintain a downward trend. Sugar futures are in a multi - empty intertwined situation, and it is recommended to operate within the 5550 - 5600 yuan range. Corn futures are in a supply - demand weak pattern, and it is recommended to conduct band trading within the 2250 - 2280 yuan range. The national average price of live pigs is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The national egg spot is stable, and it is recommended to reduce speculative short positions and arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. Cotton prices are under pressure and support, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The caustic soda price in Shandong is expected to be stable, and that in East China is expected to be weakly stable. Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly. The copper price is adjusting, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment. The alumina price is expected to continue range consolidation. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity. The lithium carbonate price has broken through the previous high, and it is recommended to try long positions on dips [10][11][13]. Industrial Metals - On August 11, the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 electrolytic copper was 79,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of A00 aluminum was 20,630 yuan/ton. The copper price continued to adjust, and the aluminum price was under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The average price of alumina was 3,249 yuan/ton, and it was expected to continue range consolidation. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [13]. Option Finance - On August 11, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The stock index futures increased in positions and volume, and the basis of the current - month contract of IF futures decreased. It is recommended that trend investors pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [15]. Stock Index Analysis - On August 11, the A - share market was strong, but the sector rotation was fast. The market is in a strong stage with high capital risk appetite, and it is recommended to cash in some profits at high prices and look for low - sucking opportunities for IF, IM, and IC [16][17].
港股热度持续攀升,南向资金年内净流入超9000亿!机构称关注恒生科技补涨机会
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-12 01:50
【市场复盘】 8月11日,港股三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘,恒生指数涨0.19%,报24906.81点;恒生科技指数跌 0.01%,报5460.02点;国企指数跌0.08%,报8888.08点。盘面上,有色、医药行业表现活跃,新消费行 业普跌。热点个股方面,哔哩哔哩涨近2.5%,阿里巴巴涨近2%,华虹跌超3.5%,美团跌近1.5%,小米 集团跌近1%。热点ETF方面,恒生科技指数ETF(513180)小幅收涨。 【南向资金】 8月11日,南向资金净流入港股0.38亿港元;截至8月11日,今年以来南向资金累计净流入9008.38亿港 元,大幅超过去年全年净流入额。 【隔夜美股】 隔夜美股三大股指小幅收跌,道指跌0.45%,标普500指数跌0.25%,纳指跌0.3%。赛富时跌超3%,IBM 跌逾2%,领跌道指。美国科技七巨头指数跌0.22%,苹果跌0.83%,亚马逊跌0.62%。中概股多数下 跌,联掌门户跌超20%,新蛋跌近12%。恒生指数ADR下跌,按比例计算,收报24793.53点,较香港收 市跌113.28点或0.45%。 【热点消息】 1、8月11日,宁德时代(300750)旗下锂矿停产引爆市场,碳酸锂期货 ...
港股早参丨港股热度持续攀升,南向资金年内净流入超9000亿!机构称关注恒生科技补涨机会
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-12 01:45
Market Overview - On August 11, Hong Kong's three major indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.19% to 24,906.81 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.01% to 5,460.02 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.08% to 8,888.08 points [1] - The market saw active performance in the metals and pharmaceuticals sectors, while the new consumption sector experienced widespread declines [1] - Notable individual stock movements included Bilibili rising nearly 2.5%, Alibaba increasing by nearly 2%, and declines in Huahong, Meituan, and Xiaomi [1] Southbound Capital - On August 11, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 0.38 million HKD into Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of 900.84 billion HKD year-to-date, significantly surpassing the total net inflow for the entire previous year [1][2] Overnight US Market - The US stock market saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.45%, the S&P 500 down by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.3% [1] - Major tech stocks such as Apple and Amazon also experienced declines, with Apple down by 0.83% and Amazon by 0.62% [1] Lithium Market Dynamics - On August 11, the suspension of lithium mining operations by CATL triggered a market surge, with all futures contracts for lithium carbonate hitting the upper limit, leading to significant increases in domestic lithium carbonate spot prices and lithium mining stocks [2] - Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares saw an intraday increase of over 22% [2] Automotive Industry Performance - In July, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7% [2] - New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, with year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4% [2] - Exports of new energy vehicles totaled 225,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 120% [2] Investment Trends - The Chinese stock market has seen increased trading activity, with significant inflows into thematic ETFs and a notable recovery in the issuance of actively managed equity funds since July [2] - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have exceeded 900 billion HKD this year, setting a historical record [2] Short Selling Data - On August 11, a total of 636 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with a total short-selling amount of 22.138 billion HKD [3] - The top three stocks by short-selling amount were Meituan, Xiaomi Group, and Tencent Holdings, with short-selling amounts of 1.136 billion HKD, 1.04 billion HKD, and 1.007 billion HKD, respectively [3] Institutional Insights - According to recent market strategies from China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong stock market may enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a focus on potential rebound opportunities in tech stocks [4] - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains bullish due to factors such as the economic cycle being at a low point, supportive monetary policies, ample liquidity, and low valuations [4] - The upcoming earnings disclosures from leading tech companies in mid-August may serve as a catalyst for a new wave of tech market activity [4]
最新!中美关税大消息;特朗普称见普京将是一次“试探性会晤”;“华盛顿特区进入紧急状态”
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-08-12 01:27
美股齐跌 周一,美股尾盘走弱,投资者等待本周即将公布的7月美国通胀数据以寻找美联储9月政策决定的更多线 索,并关注即将举行的美俄首脑会议对乌克兰战争走向的影响。 截至收盘,道指跌200.52点,跌幅0.45%,报43975.09点,纳指跌0.30%,报21385.40点,标普500指数跌 0.25%,报6373.45点。 明星科技股跌多涨少,特斯拉涨2.8%,Meta涨1.0%,微软跌0.1%,谷歌跌0.2%,亚马逊跌0.6%,苹果 跌0.8%,英伟达跌0.35%。 据央视新闻援引《金融时报》报道,当地时间11日,为了获得芯片出口许可证,美国芯片制造商英伟达 公司和AMD,与特朗普政府达成了一项特殊协议,两家企业同意将特供中国的芯片收入的15%上缴给 美国政府,以换取相关产品的出口许可证。 其他个股方面,TKO大涨超10%,派拉蒙与TKO达成7年77亿美元媒体版权协议,获得终极格斗冠军赛 (UFC)在美国的转播权。 艺电(EA)涨5.1%,DA Davidson将EA的目标价从150美元上调至160美元。 英特尔上涨3.5%,报道称公司首席执行官陈立武预计将访问白宫,特朗普上周呼吁将其免职。 纳斯达克中国金龙 ...
中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明;蚂蚁集团、中国稀土集团辟谣丨盘前情报
昨日A股 8月11日,市场全天震荡走高,创业板指领涨,沪指、深成指盘中均再创年内新高。截至收盘,沪指涨 0.34%,深成指涨1.46%,创业板指涨1.96%。沪深两市全天成交额1.83万亿元,较上个交易日放量1167 亿元。 盘面上,市场热点良性轮动,个股涨多跌少,全市场超4100只个股上涨,逾百股涨超9%。从板块来 看,PEEK材料概念股再度爆发,算力硬件股震荡走强,锂矿股集体大涨。板块方面PEEK材料、锂矿、 CPO、PCB等板块涨幅居前,银行、黄金、影视、工程机械等板块跌幅居前。 | 名称 | 最新点位 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3647.55 | +12.42(0.34%) | | 深证指数 | 11291.43 | +162.76(1.46%) | | 创业板指 | 2379.82 | +45.86(1.96%) | | | 日期:8月11日 制图:21投资通 | | 隔夜外盘 纽约股市三大股指8月11日下跌。截至当天收盘,道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌200.52点,收 于43975.09点,跌幅为0.45%;标准普尔500种股票指数下跌16点,收 ...
中美再次暂停实施24%关税90天;特朗普称见普京将是一次“试探性会晤”;台风“杨柳”要来了
第一财经· 2025-08-12 00:52
2025.08. 12 【今日推荐】 中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明 一、美国将继续修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品(包括香港特别行政区和 澳门特别行政区商品)加征从价关税的实施,自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天, 同时保留按该行政令规定对这些商品加征的剩余10%的关税。 二、中国将继续(一)修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加征的从价关税的实施,自 2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天,同时保留对这些商品加征的剩余10%的关税; 并(二)根据日内瓦联合声明的商定,采取或者维持必要措施,暂停或取消针对美国的非关税反制措 施。 特朗普称见普京将是一次"试探性会晤" 当地时间8月11日,美国总统特朗普在白宫记者会上谈及将与俄罗斯总统普京会晤一事,称这是一 次"试探性会晤",他认为双方"将进行建设性对话",他将"告诉普京结束战争"。特朗普表示,他将与 乌克兰总统泽连斯基通话,"下次会晤将与泽连斯基举行,或与普京和泽连斯基同时举行",会晤后还 将与欧洲领导人通话。特朗普还称,俄罗斯和乌克兰都必须让出领土才能结束俄乌冲突。 中汽协发布数据,7 ...
8月12日投资早报|上海建科董事陈为涉嫌严重违纪违法,中国重工自8月13日起连续停牌直至终止上市,今日一只新股上市
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 00:37
【隔夜行情】 •周一(2025年8月11日),A股市场全天震荡走高,沪指再创新高,截至收盘,上证指数涨0.34%,深 证成指涨1.46%,创业板指涨1.96%;北证50涨1.18%。沪深两市成交额约18269.73亿元,较前一个交易 日放量约1167.46亿元。 •周一(2025年8月11日),港股三大指数早盘集体杀跌,恒指一度失守两万三大关,截止收盘,恒生指 数跌0.57%或131.8点,报23157.97点,全日成交额为1452.45亿港元;恒生国企指数跌0.86%,报8359.26 点;恒生科技指数跌0.7%,报5134.11点。 •周一(当地时间2025年8月11日),美股三大指数集体收跌,道指收复前一交易日的跌幅。截至收盘, 标准普尔500指数跌0.25%,报6373.45点;纳斯达克综合指数跌0.3%,报21385.4点;道琼斯工业平均指 数跌0.45%,报43975.09点。 新股上市: 广东建科,创业板证券代码301632,发行价格6.56元/股,发行市盈率26.48倍;公司的主营业务为建设 工程领域提供检验检测技术服务;覆盖房建、市政、交通、水利、环保、安全生产等多个检验检测业务 板块。通过 ...
财政部发文,幼儿园大班免保教费补助资金管理细节敲定;多省市启动“苏超式”足球联赛;特朗普称见普京将是一次“试探性会晤”丨早报
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 00:20
第一财经每日早间精选热点新闻,点击「听新闻」,一键收听。 【今日推荐】 财政部发文,幼儿园大班免保教费补助资金管理细节敲定 近期国务院办公厅印发了《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》,从今年秋季学期开始,对幼儿园大班儿童免 收一年保育教育费。8月11日,财政部、教育部公开了修订后的《支持学前教育发展资金管理办法》,第一财经 记者对比修订前后的《办法》发现,此次修订主要是落实上述《意见》,将幼儿园大班免保教费资金纳入中央 财政支持学前教育发展资金支持范围中,并明确这一资金申报、分配、监管等细节,以规范和加强支持学前教 育发展资金管理,提高资金使用效益。 多省市启动"苏超式"足球联赛 8月10日晚,又一场"苏超式"赛事——2025年河北省五人制足球超级联赛打响揭幕战,石家庄队在主场战胜张家 口队。"苏超"横空出世后的这个夏天,在促消费、扩内需的背景下,以业余球员、城市(城区)对抗、票根经 济、官方推动为关键词的一场场群众性体育赛事在全国接连开哨。就足球项目而言,2025年江西省城市足球超 级联赛("赣超")已至第五轮,"河北五超"会延续到明年4月,武汉城市足球超级联赛("汉超")、湖南省足球 联赛("湘超")也将在 ...
8点1氪:全球首个孕育机器人预计一年内面世;胖东来回应招聘服刑人员;英伟达同意向美国政府“上贡”15%收入
36氪· 2025-08-12 00:09
Group 1 - Luxshare Technology is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with discussions ongoing with relevant intermediaries [4] - The world's first "pregnancy robot" prototype is expected to be launched within a year, priced under 100,000 yuan, designed to replicate the human pregnancy experience [5] - The animated film "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" has achieved a box office of over 574 million yuan, setting a record for domestic 2D animated films in China [10] Group 2 - The China Automobile Circulation Association reported a 2.17% year-on-year increase in used car transactions for the first seven months, with a total of 11.23 million vehicles traded [10] - Zhiyuan Robotics has secured a multi-million yuan order from Fulian Precision, marking a significant commercial milestone for industrial embodied robots [11] - The Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone aims to produce 10,000 embodied intelligent robots by the end of 2027, supported by ten comprehensive measures [14] Group 3 - Dell has denied rumors regarding an "exit plan timeline," stating that the information circulating is false [20] - Tesla is set to release a significant update to its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software next month, promising major improvements in handling rare road conditions [20] - Apple is reportedly preparing to launch a new low-cost MacBook with an A18 Pro processor, aiming to disrupt the laptop market with a starting price between $599 and $699 [31]
早知道:增值税法实施条例公开征求意见;杭州拟发布具身智能机器人产业发展条例
(原标题:早知道:增值税法实施条例公开征求意见;杭州拟发布具身智能机器人产业发展条例) 人民财讯8月12目电,增值税法实施条例公开征求意见,对纳税人、征税范围等税制要素进行细化和明确;国新办将于8月15日就7月份国民经济运 行情况举行新闻发布会;中央结算公司:即目起不再要求境外央行类机构提供协议签署承诺书:7月我国新能源汽车出口同比增长1.2倍;杭州拟 发布具身智能机器人产业发展条例;美股集体收跌,道指跌0.45%。 相关ETF 食品饮料ETF (产品代码: 515170) 市盈率: 45.02倍 资金流向: 最新份额为53.7亿份,减少 了2.4亿份,主力资金净流 入2181.1万元。 ★ 跟踪:中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数 近五日涨跌:1.94% 市盈率: 20.19倍 资金流向: 最新份额为60.1亿份,增加 了1200.0万份,主力资金净 流入2065.6万元。 估值分位:18.66% 游戏ETF (产品代码:159869) ★ 跟踪:中证动漫游戏指数 近五日涨跌:6.24% 估值分位:66.63% 科创半导体ETF (产品代码: 588170) ★ 跟踪: 上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数 近五日涨 ...