Group 1 - The average urban survey unemployment rate in China for January to August is 5.2%, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August, which is consistent with the same month last year [2] - The seasonal rise in unemployment during July and August is attributed to the influx of new graduates entering the labor market, but it is expected to decrease as they find jobs [2] - The unemployment rate for the main labor force aged 30-59 remains stable at 3.9%, indicating steady employment in this demographic [2] Group 2 - The unemployment rate for migrant workers has decreased to 4.7% in August, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, which is lower than the national urban unemployment rate [2] - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted the challenges posed by complex external environments and structural pressures on employment, emphasizing the need for continued efforts to stabilize employment [3] - There is a recognition of the coexistence of employment difficulties and recruitment challenges in certain industries, necessitating enhanced vocational training and improved labor supply-demand matching to promote high-quality employment [3]

Group 1 - The market anticipates a 95.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 4.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and no probability for maintaining or increasing rates [1] - There are two main viewpoints on why the market is optimistic about a rate cut: one suggests pressure from President Trump is a key factor, while the other argues that the Federal Reserve operates as a collective decision-making body, independent of Trump's influence [2][3] - Trump's economic policy aims to increase government spending while minimizing taxes, which necessitates lower interest rates to manage the cost of new debt issuance [4][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has not cut rates this year due to concerns about inflation and unemployment, but current economic conditions suggest that a rate cut is warranted [5][6] - The expected pace of rate cuts will depend on inflation trends; if inflation remains stable, the Fed may implement cuts of 50 basis points each quarter, while any signs of inflation rebound could lead to smaller cuts [7][8] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair next year could shift the balance towards a more dovish stance, possibly accelerating the pace of rate cuts [8]

Core Point - The unemployment rate in Greece reached 8.6% in the second quarter of 2025, indicating a significant economic trend [1] Employment Data - The number of employed individuals in Greece is 4.3868 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - The number of unemployed individuals stands at 411,700, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is surrounded by political drama, with a federal judge temporarily blocking President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, ensuring her position for the time being [2][3] - Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board is progressing rapidly, potentially filling a vacancy by January 31, 2024, which could influence future interest rate decisions [3] - The market is closely watching not only the expected 25 basis point rate cut but also who will be responsible for the economic forecasts, as this could significantly impact market expectations for 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The temporary injunction by the judge has highlighted the ongoing struggle for the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the influence of political dynamics on monetary policy [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has slightly decreased from 90% to 82% in the past week, reflecting market uncertainty due to the ongoing political situation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts is heavily dependent on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator for determining the economic trajectory [1][3]. Economic Conditions - Historical data shows that in the past fifty years, there have been seven instances where the Fed resumed rate cuts after a significant pause. Out of these, four were accompanied by economic recessions, while three saw continued economic expansion, leading to vastly different stock market performances [1][7]. - In scenarios without a recession, the MSCI World Index showed average performance increases of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months respectively after rate cuts. In contrast, during recessionary periods, the average performance was -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [7][10]. Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate is highlighted as a critical variable for distinguishing between recession and economic expansion. During recessions, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, accumulating an increase of 2-3 percentage points. Conversely, in expanding economies, the unemployment rate only sees a slight increase before declining within a few quarters [3][14][17]. Market Expectations - Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, which is a significant factor driving market expectations for the Fed to resume rate cuts. Barclays economists predict that the Fed may lower the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 as the labor market slows [17]. Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve significantly influences sector performance. Historically, a flattening yield curve during bull markets is most favorable for the stock market, while cyclical sectors perform best during steepening phases in bear markets [6][20]. - In the absence of a recession, the yield curve tends to steepen moderately after rate cuts, while in recession scenarios, it initially steepens before flattening out, transitioning to a steepening phase again as the economy recovers [20][24].

Core Viewpoint - Barclays indicates that the performance of the U.S. stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts will depend on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Market Performance - Historically, after the Fed has paused and then resumed rate cuts, there have been 4 instances of recession and 3 instances of continued expansion over the past 50 years, leading to significant differences in stock market performance [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may restart its rate-cutting cycle next week, with approximately 6 cuts anticipated over the next 12 months [1] - In the absence of a recession, the stock market tends to rise steadily after rate cuts, reaching new highs within 6 months; conversely, during a recession, the market initially declines but rebounds over the following 12 months [1] Group 2: Unemployment Rate as an Indicator - The unemployment rate is crucial in distinguishing between recession and expansion scenarios; during a recession, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, while in an expansion, it may slightly increase before declining [1] - Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts [1] Group 3: Historical Performance Metrics - Historical data shows that in non-recessionary periods, the MSCI World Index averages gains of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1, 3, 6, and 12 months post-rate cuts, respectively; during recessions, the averages are -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [1] - Cross-asset performance also varies significantly based on economic conditions [1] Group 4: Employment Market Indicators - Leading indicators in the employment market suggest that wage growth may be slowing, and indices such as the ISM Employment Index indicate a weakening in job growth, although the U.S. surprise index remains positive [1] Group 5: Activity Indicators - In non-recessionary periods, the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to improve about a quarter after rate cuts, while it continues to decline for several quarters during recessions [1] Group 6: Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve influences sector performance; prior to rate cuts, bull markets tend to steepen, while during recessions, this steepening is more pronounced [1] - In non-recessionary scenarios, the yield curve typically steepens and then flattens a few months after rate cuts; during recessions, the curve initially steepens before flattening in a bear market, with a recovery leading to a steepening again after 6 months [1] - A flattening yield curve is favorable for the stock market, with cyclical sectors performing well during bear market steepening [1] - Currently, the decline in U.S. real interest rates is pushing yields lower, benefiting short-cycle sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% during its meeting on September 11, aligning with market expectations [1] Economic Outlook - A significant majority of economists (66 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged, indicating a consensus on the current monetary policy stance [1] - Recent data shows inflation nearing the ECB's target of 2%, and the unemployment rate is at historical lows, leading to the belief that the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle [1] - Approximately 60% of economists (40 out of 69) forecast that the ECB will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year [1] Economic Growth Projections - Economists project that the Eurozone economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, which is consistent with the findings from the August survey [1] - There are warnings regarding potential risks in the region, including the contraction of the German economy and political instability in some Eurozone countries [1] Currency Trading Insights - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently in a consolidation pattern below resistance levels, with a focus on the monthly opening range of 1.1586 to 1.1775 [1] - From a trading perspective, if the Euro intends to continue its upward trend, it must keep declines above 1.1497 and close above the current trading range to initiate a new major upward wave [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts is heavily dependent on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator for determining the economic trajectory [1][3]. Economic Conditions and Stock Market Performance - Historical data shows that in the past fifty years, there have been seven instances where the Fed paused and then resumed rate cuts. Out of these, four were accompanied by economic recessions, while three saw continued economic expansion, leading to vastly different stock market performances [1][6]. - In scenarios without a recession, the MSCI World Index showed average performance of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months post-rate cut, respectively. In contrast, during recessions, the performance was -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [6][9]. Unemployment Rate as a Key Indicator - The unemployment rate is crucial for distinguishing between recession and economic expansion. Historical data indicates that during recessions, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, accumulating an increase of 2-3 percentage points. Conversely, during economic expansions, the unemployment rate only sees a slight increase before declining within a few quarters [3][13][16]. Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve significantly influences sector performance. Historically, a flattening yield curve during bull markets is most favorable for the stock market, while cyclical sectors perform best during steepening phases in bear markets [5][19]. - If current interest rate pricing remains unchanged, a bull market flattening trend may continue to support the stock market [5][22]. Cross-Asset Performance - In non-recession scenarios, stocks typically outperform bonds, with the S&P 500 index showing a 12-month performance of 16%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains nearly flat. During recessions, bonds perform better, with Treasury yields rising by 8 percentage points, while the S&P 500 index only sees a 12% increase over 12 months [9][12]. Economic Activity Indicators - Economic activity indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing index, typically improve about a quarter after rate cuts in non-recession scenarios. However, during recessions, this index tends to decline for several quarters before bottoming out and recovering [16].

Core Insights - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone for July decreased to 6.2%, down by 0.1% from June, while the EU's unemployment rate also fell to 5.9%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month [1] - Year-on-year comparisons show a decline in unemployment rates, with the Eurozone down by 0.2% and the EU down by 0.1% [1] - The estimated number of unemployed individuals in the EU is slightly over 13 million, with approximately 10.8 million in the Eurozone [1] Youth Unemployment - The unemployment rate for individuals under 25 in the Eurozone and EU decreased by 0.4% in July, reaching 13.9% and 14.4% respectively [1] - The estimated number of unemployed youth in the EU is around 2.8 million, while in the Eurozone, it is approximately 2.23 million [1] Croatia's Unemployment Statistics - Croatia's unemployment rate in July was reported at 4.6%, with 81,000 unemployed individuals [1] - The youth unemployment rate in Croatia for the second quarter was 16.9%, with 20,000 unemployed youth, which decreased to an estimated 15.9% by the end of July, equating to 19,000 unemployed youth [1]

Employment Data - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the previous value of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, matching expectations but up from 4.2%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for June and July, resulting in a total downward adjustment of 21,000 jobs[3] Sector Performance - The goods-producing sector saw a job loss of 25,000, continuing a downward trend, while the service sector added 63,000 jobs, down from 85,000 in the previous month[4] - Notably, the manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs, and government employment decreased by 16,000[11] Market Implications - Following the employment data release, the market anticipates a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and October, with some speculation about a potential 50 basis points cut in September[3] - The short-term U.S. Treasury yields have declined rapidly, while long-term yields have remained relatively stable[5] Economic Outlook - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, but the unemployment rate has not increased significantly, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not act too quickly on rate cuts[4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data on September 11, which will provide further insights into inflation trends[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the U.S. economy potentially declining more than expected, as well as uncertainties surrounding monetary and fiscal policies[51]