英国的就业市场正面临疫情以来最严峻的考验。 根据英国智库决议基金会（Resolution Foundation）的分析，截至今年8月的三个月内，英国失业率 预计升至5%，为2021年初以来最高水平。 这一数字超过英国央行对第四季度4.9%的预测，凸显英国就业市场恶化与经济疲弱并存的困境。 招聘冻结 疫情后，英国的劳动力市场一度火爆。不过最新数据显示，英国就业市场正在快速失去动力，第二 季度官方失业率为4.7%。 伦敦的失业率依然是英国最高的。目前，伦敦约有6%的16岁至65岁居民（31.1万人）正在寻找工 作。与此同时，该市1/5的人被归类为"经济非活跃人口"，这意味着他们没有工作，也没有积极寻找工 作。 与以往不同的是，本轮就业放缓并非主要由大规模裁员推动，而是由于企业普遍冻结招聘，导致职 位空缺锐减。 疾病与老龄化风险 就业疲软背后还有结构性因素。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，疲弱的经济增长和劳动力数量的下降正给英国 带来"严峻挑战"。他在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年会上向财政政策制定者发表讲话时称，劳动力老龄化 以及被归为"长期患病"的人数增加，意味着英国的生产力正受到拖累。 ...

Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]

Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the importance of accelerating economic recovery and achieving growth targets for the second half of the year, aligning with national and provincial directives [2][3][5] Economic Performance and Strategy - The city has focused on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations while promoting high-quality development [2][3] - Key sectors identified for recovery include automotive, pharmaceuticals, wholesale, and real estate [3] - Initiatives to boost effective demand include special actions to stimulate consumption and policies for trade-in programs [3] Project and Investment Focus - There is a strong emphasis on accelerating project construction and utilizing various policy funds to support high-quality projects [3][5] - The city aims to enhance its industrial technology innovation and attract investments to upgrade traditional industries and develop emerging sectors [3][5] Urban Development and Reform - The strategy includes promoting high-quality urban development and implementing significant urban renewal projects [3] - The city plans to deepen reforms and improve the business environment to support enterprise development [3][4] Leadership and Coordination - Strong organizational leadership and accountability are highlighted as essential for achieving economic goals [4][5] - Collaboration among city leaders and departments is crucial for addressing challenges faced by businesses [5]

Group 1 - Japan's manufacturing confidence has slightly improved in July, with the manufacturing sentiment index rising from +6 in June to +7 in July, driven by a recovery in the semiconductor industry [1] - The service sector sentiment index has remained unchanged at +30 for the third consecutive month, indicating stability in service industry confidence [1] - The electronic machinery sector index improved from -16 in June to -4 in July, while the chemical sector index rose from +12 to +18, attributed to better chip demand [1] Group 2 - The transportation machinery sector index, which includes Japan's key automotive industry, decreased from +20 in June to +9 in July, with concerns over the impact of a 25% U.S. tariff on exports and costs [1] - Overall service sector confidence showed mixed results, with wholesalers experiencing improved confidence, while sectors such as real estate, retail, IT, and transportation saw declines compared to June [1]

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has received a patent application from three companies: Guangzhou Xiyin International Import and Export Co., Ltd., Nanjing Xiyin E-commerce Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen Xiyin Information Technology Co., Ltd. for a method of "deduplication of recommendation results and related products" [1][2] - The patent application was filed on March 2025, with the publication number CN120256419A, and it describes a method that involves obtaining user behavior data during the display of a recommendation list and deduplicating the list based on a pre-obtained configuration file [1] - Guangzhou Xiyin International Import and Export Co., Ltd. was established in 2017, has a registered capital of 65 million RMB, and has invested in 14 companies, participated in 8 bidding projects, and holds 136 patents [1] - Nanjing Xiyin E-commerce Co., Ltd. was founded in 2018, has a registered capital of 30 million RMB, and holds 33 patents along with 6 administrative licenses [1] - Shenzhen Xiyin Information Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2021, has a registered capital of 10 million RMB, and holds 19 patents and 3 administrative licenses [2]

Core Insights - The "Action Plan" aims to accelerate the development of intelligent supply chains across five key sectors, focusing on targeted measures for each industry [1][2] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of leveraging new technologies such as AI, IoT, and blockchain to enhance supply chain resilience and efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The "Action Plan" identifies five major sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and logistics, with specific strategies for each to promote digital transformation [2] - It aims to cultivate around 100 leading intelligent supply chain enterprises to enhance the resilience and security of China's supply chains by 2030 [1] Group 2: Technological Integration - The plan includes the establishment of intelligent supply chain control towers utilizing IoT, AI, and digital twin technologies for real-time insights and decision-making support [2] - It encourages the exploration of supply chain data trading, promoting data sharing and the development of standards for data asset recognition and quality evaluation [2] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The "Action Plan" stresses the need for coordination among government departments and collaboration between industry, academia, and research institutions to facilitate smooth data flow across the supply chain [2]

Group 1 - The Chengdu Municipal Bureau of Commerce has officially issued the "2025 Measures to Support the Quality and Capability Improvement of Commercial Trade Enterprises," which includes 10 specific measures aimed at enhancing the vitality of business entities [1] - For wholesale enterprises with annual sales between 3 billion and 5 billion yuan and a year-on-year growth of over 20%, a one-time reward of 500,000 yuan will be granted; for those with sales between 5 billion and 10 billion yuan and a growth of over 15%, a reward of 1 million yuan will be provided [1] - Second-hand car dealerships that meet certain criteria will receive a reward of 0.5% of their sales, with a maximum of 2 million yuan, promoting the industry's development towards scale and branding [1] Group 2 - In support of foreign trade enterprises, the measures will cover up to 50% of the actual expenses for overseas marketing and overseas brand registration, with a maximum support of 500,000 yuan per enterprise [1] - Enterprises recognized as provincial-level or above cross-border e-commerce industrial parks or excellent overseas warehouse cases will receive a one-time reward of 500,000 yuan [1] - To mitigate the risks of going abroad, the measures propose a 50% premium support for export credit insurance for large enterprises, while small and micro foreign trade enterprises can enjoy interest subsidies of 50% and 60% for import-export trade financing and export credit insurance policy financing, respectively, with a maximum of 500,000 yuan [1] Group 3 - In the service trade sector, the measures specify that enterprises importing from the "Encouraged Import Service Catalog" with import amounts reaching 4 million USD will receive support at an annual interest rate of 0.2%, with a maximum of 300,000 yuan [2] - For offshore service outsourcing and software product export enterprises, interest subsidies will be provided based on the execution amount, with a maximum of 300,000 yuan [2]

Core Insights - Qinghai Province has implemented various measures to boost consumer spending, resulting in a positive trend in retail sales [1][2] - From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1] - In May alone, retail sales amounted to 9.296 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, marking three consecutive months of over 4% growth [1] Retail Performance - Retail sales of enterprises above designated size grew by 2% from January to May, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous four months [2] - The retail sales growth rates for wholesale, retail, and catering enterprises were 2.8%, 1.1%, and 6.1% respectively, while the accommodation sector's decline continued to narrow [2] - Among 19 major categories of goods, 8 saw an increase and 11 a decrease in retail sales, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment, building and decoration materials, and hardware and electrical materials leading the growth at 45.1%, 27.8%, and 12.4% respectively [2] Policy Impact - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted sales in various categories, with wearable smart devices, new energy vehicles, home appliances, and building materials seeing year-on-year sales growth of 210.8%, 45%, 45.1%, and 27.8% respectively [2] - The Qinghai Provincial Department of Commerce plans to continue promoting large-scale consumption through various initiatives, including "Shopping in China," "Foreign Trade Quality Products," and "Home Feast" food month, as well as the "Home Decoration Festival" [2]

Core Viewpoint - Qinghai Province is implementing various measures to boost consumer spending, resulting in a positive trend in retail sales and overall consumption recovery in the region [1][8]. Group 1: Retail Performance - From January to May, Qinghai Province achieved a total retail sales of social consumer goods amounting to 38.72 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first four months [1]. - In May alone, the retail sales reached 9.296 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, marking three consecutive months of over 4% growth [1]. - Retail sales from key enterprises increased by 2% from January to May, with the growth rate improving by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous four months [2]. Group 2: Key Product Categories - Among key products, retail sales for household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 45.1%, while building and decoration materials saw a growth of 27.8% [2][6]. - In May, automotive retail sales experienced a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, continuing a positive growth trend for three consecutive months [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The "old for new" policy has become a significant driver of consumption growth, with sales of wearable smart devices, new energy vehicles, household appliances, and building materials seeing year-on-year increases of 210.8%, 45%, 45.1%, and 27.8% respectively [6]. - Online retail sales through key enterprises reached 550 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 118.2%, with an acceleration of 28.9 percentage points compared to the previous four months [6]. Group 4: Future Initiatives - The Qinghai Provincial Department of Commerce plans to enhance consumption through a combination of policies and activities, focusing on the implementation of the "old for new" policy and promoting large-scale consumption potential [7]. - Upcoming initiatives include "Purchasing in China," "Foreign Trade Quality Products" events, and themed activities like the "Home Feast" month and "Home Decoration Festival" to invigorate the consumer market [7].

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, the lowest since February, but still above the market expectation of 130,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, alleviating concerns about a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Chief Economist Samuel Tombs warned that the current employment data may mask deeper issues, citing a significant downward revision of March's non-farm payrolls from 224,000 to 120,000 [3] - Tombs predicts that May's employment data may be revised down to around 100,000 in the upcoming August report, with an average downward revision of 30,000 since the beginning of 2023 [3] Group 3: Industry-Specific Employment Trends - Employment prospects in retail, wholesale, transportation, and logistics are bleak, with an expected reduction of about 50,000 jobs by year-end due to diminishing pre-tariff effects [5] - The NFIB reported that small business hiring intentions have dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, indicating potential future weakness in the job market [6] Group 4: Public Sector Employment - A wave of layoffs in the public sector is anticipated, with 59,000 federal jobs already eliminated and a reduction of 22,000 in May [8] - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.8% by December due to these trends [8]