洛根表示，她支持联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）本月早些时候降低利率25个基点的决定。她说，此举 将为劳动力市场的下行风险提供保障。 但她也警告说，通胀已超过美联储2%的目标长达四年多，这可能使长期的物价预期面临"脱锚"风险， 而且企业和消费者的需求仍然具有韧性。她说，"对FOMC来说，信守其实现2%通胀的承诺至关重要， 实现这一目标将需要仔细校准政策立场。" "放下铅笔" 洛根周二在该行一场活动的准备讲稿中说，"持续的通胀、有韧性的需求和劳动力市场温和的闲置状 况，向我表明政策可能只是温和的限制性的，可能几乎没有多少空间来进行额外的降息了。" 美联储上月的降息是自去年12月以来的首次降息，因为决策者们今年在评估关税和其他政策将如何影响 经济。 这位达拉斯联储主席表示，她不确信通胀正朝着完全回到2%目标的方向发展，并且有证据表明关税并 非推动物价加速的唯一因素。她说，非住房服务业的通胀可能会使整体指标比2%的目标高出30或40个 基点。 达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，在通胀仍高于目标且劳动力市场相对平衡的情况下，决策者在考虑进一步降 息时应保持谨慎。 服务业通胀的回升已引起其他美联储官员的警觉。尽管美联储19位决策者 ...

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Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced a drug pricing deal with Pfizer, which will voluntarily lower medication prices, including discounts for Medicaid, resulting in a 5% increase in Pfizer's stock price [1][5]. Group 1: Deal Details - Pfizer is the first company to finalize a deal with the administration, committing to lower prices for Medicaid and receiving a three-year exemption from tariffs in exchange for increased investment in the U.S. [2][3]. - The company will sell some drugs through a new direct-to-consumer platform called Trump RX and promises to launch new drugs at parity with prices in other countries [3][5]. Group 2: Financial Implications - While the deal appears significant, the drugs involved are older and not major revenue generators, meaning Pfizer is not sacrificing much in terms of profit [4][5]. - Medicaid already benefits from the lowest prices, indicating that the deal may not represent a substantial loss for Pfizer [5]. Group 3: Market Reaction - The deal has removed uncertainty regarding drug pricing and tariffs, providing investors with confidence, as reflected in the stock market movements [6][7]. - Other pharmaceutical companies are also expected to make similar commitments, although specific announcements have yet to be made [1][2]. Group 4: Consumer Impact - Pfizer plans to offer most drugs in its primary care portfolio through the direct-to-consumer platform, although these drugs are not widely recognized [8]. - The effectiveness of the direct-to-consumer sales model remains uncertain, as many consumers may still rely on insurance for lower prices [9][10].

杰斐逊说："劳动力市场正在走软，这表明如果缺乏支持，它可能会承受压力。" 杰斐逊称，他预计通胀将在今年之后开始回落至美联储2%的目标水平。杰斐逊指出，特朗普政府的贸 易、移民及其他政策的影响仍在演变，因此其基准预测存在特别高的不确定性。尽管关税对通胀和经济 其他方面的影响低于部分经济学家的预期，但杰斐逊表示，他预计这些影响"将在未来几个月进一步显 现"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美联储副主席杰斐逊说，他预计今年剩余时间美国经济将继续以1.5%左右的速度增长，如果没有美联 储的支持，就业市场将面临潜在压力。他表示，他支持美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点，以在持续高 于目标的通胀风险与就业市场日益增加的威胁之间取得平衡。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of global tariffs on trade and economic activity, particularly focusing on the US economy and its interactions with other countries, including China, Japan, and Canada [4][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on US Economy**: - The US imposed broad global tariffs, reaching their highest levels since the 1930s, which has created uncertainty in the market. However, the risk of recession is not the base case due to the strong economy prior to the tariffs [4][10]. - Effective tariff rates are close to 12-13%, with tariff revenues annualizing at approximately $350 billion, representing about 20% of corporate profits in manufacturing and trade sectors [4][10][11]. 2. **Labor Market Dynamics**: - The US labor market is showing signs of slowing, with job growth less than half of last year's pace and real labor income growth nearing zero. This slowdown in labor income is expected to impact consumer spending [4][5][17]. - Despite the slowdown in hiring, there has not been a significant increase in firings, which is typically a precursor to recession [4][17]. 3. **Consumer Spending Resilience**: - Consumer spending has not yet shown a material slowdown, and Q2 GDP was revised upwards. The increases in wealth over recent years are expected to support spending, particularly among higher-income households [4][17]. 4. **Sectoral Strengths and Weaknesses**: - Certain sectors, such as gold, AI-related IT hardware, and pharmaceuticals, have shown resilience and contributed positively to trade numbers. However, this strength may be temporary [10][16]. - Exports from China to the US have significantly decreased, but some economic impacts have been mitigated by rerouting exports through other Asian economies [11][14]. 5. **Global Economic Outlook**: - There is an expectation of a meaningful slowdown in both the US and global economies, with risks of negative GDP growth in countries like Japan and Canada due to trade-related slowdowns [12][13][17]. - Manufacturing PMIs in the Euro area have declined after months of improvement, indicating that trade tensions are beginning to affect the industry [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - The front-loading of exports ahead of tariffs has temporarily deferred some economic challenges, but the long-term effects of tariffs are still uncertain [10][11]. - The combination of strained corporate margins, uneven pass-through of costs, and a softer global capital expenditure environment suggests slower global growth in the coming quarters [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of tariffs on the US economy and global trade dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current high copper prices and the impact of various economic factors on commodity markets, including government policies, production targets, and market trends in different sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting project capital, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [1]. - From January to August, state-owned enterprises reported total revenue of 539,620.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while total profits decreased by 2.7% to 27,937.2 billion yuan [1]. - The domestic commodity futures market saw a general decline, particularly in energy and chemical products, indicating a bearish trend in these sectors [1]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices rose by 1.59% in the night session, with a significant reduction in China's copper production growth target for 2025-2026 from 5% to 1.5% [2][21]. - The ongoing tight supply of copper concentrate and high smelting profits are expected to support copper prices in the long term, especially following mining incidents in Indonesia [2][21]. Group 3: Stock Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight increases, with the non-bank financial sector leading gains, while coal stocks lagged [3][12]. - The financing balance decreased by 193.55 billion yuan to 24,080.56 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach among investors as the market enters a consolidation phase after a prolonged rally [3][12]. Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - The SC crude oil price fell by 2.87%, influenced by Russia's export bans on diesel and gasoline amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][14]. - The US labor department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, suggesting a resilient labor market, which may impact oil demand [4][14]. Group 5: Agricultural Products and Commodities - The article highlights fluctuations in agricultural commodities, with Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and derivatives affecting global markets [28]. - The domestic market anticipates increased supply due to this policy change, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [28].

晚间（9月29日），美股集体高开，其中，纳指涨逾0.5%，截至发稿，道指已经飘绿。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨，一度涨超2%。个股方面，小马智行涨逾6%，老虎证券涨逾5%，新东方涨超7%，阿里巴巴涨逾5%。贝壳、哔 哩哔哩涨近4%，理想汽车涨超3%，百度、网易、京东等涨超2%。 | < W | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC) 09-29 11:49:38 延时 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8658.20 | | 昨收 | 8530.46 | 成交额 | | 0.00 | | +127.74 | +1.50% | 今开 | 8678.74 | 成交量 | | 0 | | 上涨 | 0 | 平盘 | 0 | 下跌 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 8758.44 | 市盈率 | 22.5 | 近20日 | | 9.42% | | 最低价 | 8658.17 | 市净率 | 2.49 | 今年来 | | 28.02% | | +7+4 | 五日 | 日K | 周Ｋ | 月K | 电名 | O | | 音加 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced a significant increase, rising over 2%, with individual stocks such as Xiaoma Zhixing up more than 6%, Tiger Securities up over 5%, and New Oriental up over 7% [1] - Alibaba, Beike, Bilibili, and Li Auto also saw gains, with increases of nearly 4% and over 3% respectively, while Baidu, NetEase, and JD.com rose over 2% [1] - Crude oil prices fell sharply by 3.74%, settling at $63.26 per barrel [1] Group 2 - Spot gold prices surged by 1.86%, reaching a record high of $3833.25 per ounce, driven by factors such as Trump's renewed tariff threats and the risk of a government shutdown [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester highlighted the challenging balance the Federal Reserve faces between controlling inflation and protecting employment [3][4] - Mester emphasized the need for a tight policy stance to bring inflation back to target levels, noting that inflation has deviated from the 2% target for over four and a half years [4] Group 3 - Trump announced a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S., claiming that the American film industry is being undermined by foreign productions [5][6] - The U.S. government faces a shutdown risk as federal funding is set to run out, with a deadline of September 30, unless bipartisan agreement on funding legislation is reached [7][8] - Fed officials indicated that tariffs are a significant factor in the inflation narrative, with concerns about high inflation rates, particularly in the service sector [10][11]

每经编辑｜陈柯名 | 股市行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球 | A股 | 港股 | | 美股 | | 纳斯达克 | 道琼斯 | | 标普500 | | | 22596.59 | 46172.11 | | 6657.09 | | | +112.52 +0.50% | -75.18 -0.16% | | +13.39 +0.20% | | | | J. W m | | | | | 涨2626 | | | | 跌312 | 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨，一度涨超2%。个股方面，小马智行涨逾6%，老虎证券涨逾5%，新东方涨超7%，阿里巴巴涨逾5%。贝壳、哔 哩哔哩涨近4%，理想汽车涨超3%，百度、网易、京东等涨超2%。 | W | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC) 09-29 11:49:38 延时 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8658.20 | | 昨收 | 8530.46 | 成交额 | | 0.00 | | +127.74 | +1.50% | 今开 | ...

特朗普：我将对任何不在美国生产家具的国家征收高额关税。 ...