1月3日，美军发动针对委内瑞拉军事行动后，美国总统特朗普随即在记者会上宣称，美国大型油企将进 入委内瑞拉，投资数十亿美元，修复严重破损的石油基础设施，"并开始为美国赚钱"。 1月9日，特朗普与美国石油巨头公司高管举行会议，要求这些美国石油公司尽快前往委内瑞拉进行石油 投资，并承诺称"你们将获得全面的安全保障"。但多位美国石油公司高管就下一步投资委内瑞拉的公开 表态较为谨慎。 美委石油的百年爱恨史 委内瑞拉的现代石油工业发端于20世纪初。第一批油井出现在该国西北部的马拉开波湖一带。1922年12 月，湖岸的巴罗索二号油井发生井喷，持续一周，每天喷出约10万桶原油。此后，大量工人和企业向湖 区聚集，形成早期的采油与服务体系。到1928年，委内瑞拉已跃升为全球最大的石油出口国之一。 外资很早便深度进入委内瑞拉油田开发，其中美国和英国企业走在最前。凭借距离近、资金足、技术强 等优势，美国公司逐步在委石油产业中占据更突出的地位。二战以后，民众主义风靡拉美大陆（编注： 尽管英文世界用populism统称民众主义与民粹主义，但拉美和国内学界都强调拉美的民众主义有其不同 于一般意义上的民粹主义的特征）。民众要求政府照顾中下层 ...

卡尔·波兰尼的《大转型》是20世纪极具影响力的一部关于经济、政治和社会著作。在这本写于1944年的著作中，他告诉世人那些古典经济自由观 念下的市场主义不会令世界更幸福，根源在于19世纪之后出现的现代市场世界根本性的矛盾——"理性"市场逻辑主导的经济—政治结构看似可以 自我调节，实则难以为继。 本文内容出自新京报·书评周刊12月26日专题《卡尔·波兰尼：告别市场乌托邦》B04-05版。 B01「主题」卡尔·波兰尼 告别市场乌托邦 B08「中文学术文摘」传播研究 文摘一则 撰文丨孙睿 《国富论》希望展现出的机制是：一个人出于追求利益的动机，通过分工和市场机制的自发作用，就能使得整个群体的生产效率提升，财富也会 更好积累。但斯密从未认为市场可以脱离道德和同情心来理解，自利也不是自私，而是一个关心自身处境改善的天然动机。并且这一理论具有极 强的自由主义色彩，与文艺复兴以来对个体自由和人的理性的肯定一脉相承。市场参与者们不需要任何指令驱使——不需要上帝的意志，也不需 要强制命令，只要他理性地思考自己的利害得失（这是人性中自然的存在，不需要失去自己的尊严获得），按照自由意志进入市场，这只"看不见 的手"就会实现协作与合作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of China's $1 trillion trade surplus, arguing that it represents a significant economic imbalance rather than a true profit, as it reflects a trade of real goods for mere currency [1][4][24]. Trade Surplus Analysis - The $1 trillion trade surplus is likened to a "gold mine," but it is suggested that this surplus is misleading, as it does not equate to actual wealth [1][4]. - The narrative compares two fictional islands: "Labor Island" (China) and "Consumption Island" (the U.S.), illustrating how Labor Island exports real goods while receiving only paper currency in return [4][7]. - The article emphasizes that the true wealth lies in tangible goods, not in the currency received for them, highlighting a fundamental misunderstanding of wealth [5][6]. Economic Mechanisms - The article critiques the artificial management of currency exchange rates, which prevents the natural appreciation of the Chinese yuan despite significant exports [9][13]. - It explains that maintaining a low exchange rate effectively subsidizes foreign consumers while distorting price signals for domestic producers [16][20]. - The process of printing more yuan to manage the exchange rate leads to inflation, diminishing the purchasing power of Chinese citizens [18][20]. Consequences of Trade Practices - The article argues that the current trade practices result in a cycle where increased exports lead to more yuan being printed, which in turn causes inflation and reduces the purchasing power of the populace [21][24]. - It suggests that the trade surplus, rather than being a sign of economic strength, is a burden that restricts consumer spending and industrial advancement [24][25]. Proposed Solutions - The article advocates for allowing the yuan to float freely in the market, which would lead to a natural adjustment in the exchange rate and potentially higher prices for exports [24]. - It calls for increased imports to utilize the trade surplus effectively, suggesting that China should invest in technology and consumer goods to enhance domestic welfare [24]. - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer spending as a measure of economic health, rather than merely focusing on export figures [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of tariffs as a significant policy tool in international trade, emphasizing their role in shaping economic strategies and national interests throughout different historical periods [3]. Group 1: Early Forms of Tariffs - Tariffs originated as "tolls" paid at city gates, ferry crossings, or ports, with minimal impact on national revenue, primarily supported by land and head taxes [5]. - The Age of Exploration marked a turning point, where tariffs transitioned from local fees to a central tool for national fiscal and economic policy due to the rise of international trade [5]. Group 2: Mercantilism and Tariffs - During the early stages of capitalism, European nations adopted mercantilist policies, imposing high tariffs on imports to protect domestic industries and promote exports, aiming to accumulate gold and silver [6]. - A notable example is the UK, where tariff revenues increased approximately 3.5 times from 1700 to 1800, consistently accounting for over 20% of central government revenue [6]. Group 3: Divergence of Trade Policies in the 19th Century - The 19th century saw a split between free trade and protectionism, with industrialized nations like the UK advocating for lower tariffs to expand markets for manufactured goods [6]. - In contrast, emerging industrial nations such as the US and Germany implemented high tariffs to protect nascent industries from British competition, highlighting the contrasting trade strategies of the time [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of "creative destruction," emphasizing that economic growth is driven by innovation and the replacement of outdated practices rather than increased effort by individuals [2][11] - It highlights the importance of adapting to technological changes and the need for individuals to develop skills that are less likely to be replaced by automation [3][4][6] Group 1: Creative Destruction - The theory of "creative destruction" explains how new technologies replace old ones, leading to economic growth [2] - Historical examples include the steam engine replacing horse-drawn carriages and digital cameras replacing film [2] - The article warns that many individuals are unaware of their gradual replacement in the workforce due to technological advancements [2] Group 2: Survival Strategies - The first survival strategy is to learn how to "command tools" rather than just execute tasks, focusing on leveraging AI for greater results [3] - The second strategy emphasizes the importance of understanding the reasons behind tasks, not just how to perform them, to better navigate changes [4][5] - The third strategy suggests that individuals should focus on developing skills that are difficult to automate, such as integration and transferability across fields [6] Group 3: Broader Implications - The article posits that innovation is not solely the responsibility of nations or corporations but is essential for individual survival and improvement in quality of life [7][8] - It underscores the need for a constructive approach to managing the conflicts arising from creative destruction to prevent stagnation [11]

Group 1 - The Trump Administration's inclination towards a weaker dollar is based on the belief that it will enhance trade balance by making imports more expensive and exports cheaper, but this perspective overlooks the potential inflationary damage to the domestic economy [1] - Historical precedents, such as the George W. Bush administration's approach in the early 2000s, demonstrate that a gradually weakening dollar can lead to significant economic downturns, as seen in the 2007-09 financial crisis [2] - A strong and stable currency is essential for a country's global influence and economic growth, as it fosters the development of domestic capital markets and financial institutions [3] Group 2 - The historical example of the Dutch Republic illustrates how a trusted currency can lead to economic power and the establishment of global trade networks, with the first stock exchange opening in Amsterdam in 1602 [4] - The establishment of the Bank of England under William of Orange highlights the importance of a stable currency in financing global contests, enabling Britain to outpace France despite its smaller size [5] - The belief in mercantilism, which emphasized government control and trade surpluses, ultimately hindered economic growth, as demonstrated by France's struggles during that period [6] Group 3 - Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" challenged mercantilist ideas, advocating that trade benefits both buyers and sellers, leading to greater prosperity and economic advancement [7] - The 20th century saw a resurgence of mercantilist practices, including currency devaluation to gain competitive advantages, which resulted in economic chaos and contributed to World War II [8] - The devaluation of the dollar initiated by President Nixon in 1971 led to rampant inflation and perceptions of national decline, reinforcing the notion that a weak dollar correlates with a weak country [9]

Group 1: Historical Context of Tariffs - Tariffs have a long history, dating back to ancient civilizations, where they were used to generate revenue and regulate trade [2][3] - During the mercantilist period (16th to 18th centuries), high tariffs were implemented to maximize exports and minimize imports, with average tariffs in England reaching 45-55% [4][5] - The classical economists, such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo, argued for lower tariffs and free trade, suggesting that it would benefit all nations involved [5][6] Group 2: Tariff Policies in the 18th and 19th Centuries - In the 18th and 19th centuries, tariff policies varied significantly across countries, with the U.S. initially using tariffs as a revenue source, later increasing them to protect emerging industries [7][9] - The U.K. maintained high tariffs until the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846, marking a shift towards free trade [8][9] - The U.S. and Germany adopted high tariffs to protect their industries, leading to faster industrial growth compared to the U.K. [10][9] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade - The imposition of tariffs in the early 20th century, particularly during the Great Depression, led to a significant decline in international trade, exemplified by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act [12] - Post-World War II, the establishment of GATT aimed to reduce tariffs and promote free trade, resulting in a decrease in average tariffs from 22% in 1947 to below 5% by 1994 [13][14] Group 4: Modern Tariff Trends and Conflicts - In the 21st century, tariffs have resurfaced as a tool for economic policy, with the U.S. under Trump increasing tariffs on imports, particularly from China, leading to retaliatory measures [16][15] - The ongoing trade disputes highlight the tension between protecting domestic industries and the benefits of free trade, with economists warning that high tariffs can lead to increased prices and economic inefficiencies [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Tariffs have re-emerged as a focal point in global economic and trade policies, particularly due to the rise of trade protectionism in the U.S. and the reevaluation of tariff policies by multiple countries amid geopolitical conflicts and fiscal pressures [5]. Summary by Sections Origin and Characteristics of Tariffs - Historically, tariffs originated as a form of transit fee for cross-border goods, primarily aimed at controlling the movement of people and goods, rather than for fiscal purposes [7]. - Tariffs have evolved from being a minor component of national fiscal systems to a crucial tool for economic intervention and revenue generation, especially since the 16th century with the rise of international trade [8][11]. Functions of Tariffs - Tariffs serve three main functions: revenue generation, protection of domestic industries, and economic regulation [11]. - The role of tariffs has shifted over time, influenced by economic development and prevailing economic ideologies, with their revenue-generating function becoming less significant in developed countries [12][19]. Evolution of Tariff Systems - The evolution of global tariff systems can be divided into five main stages from the 16th century to the present, reflecting changes in economic thought and development levels [13][14]. - **First Stage (16th-18th Century)**: Mercantilism dominated, with tariffs primarily used for revenue collection [15]. - **Second Stage (19th Century)**: The rise of free trade theories led to a reduction in tariffs in industrialized nations, while developing countries continued to rely on tariffs for revenue and protection [16]. - **Third Stage (Early 20th Century)**: Protectionism surged post-World War I, reinforcing tariffs as tools for revenue and industry protection [17]. - **Fourth Stage (Post-WWII to 2017)**: Establishment of a global free trade system led to a general decline in tariffs and a shift towards income and consumption taxes as primary revenue sources [18]. - **Fifth Stage (2018-Present)**: A resurgence of protectionism, particularly in the U.S., has seen tariffs used again for industry protection and economic regulation [19]. Dependency on Tariff Revenue - Global economies can be categorized based on their dependency on tariff revenue, with developed economies generally showing low dependency (below 3%), while some developing economies exhibit medium (3%-5%) or high dependency (over 5%) [20][23][26]. - Countries like Japan, Canada, and the U.S. have low tariff revenue contributions to their overall fiscal income, while nations like the Philippines show a high reliance on tariffs due to weaker tax systems [23][28].

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing depth of thought among Chinese investors regarding the competition between China and the United States, focusing on their respective strategies and how they plan to win [1] - It highlights the importance of geopolitical and technological advancements as central themes in the current era, suggesting that these factors are interconnected and influence each other [15][16] - The article mentions the potential for using AI technology to analyze and invest in geopolitical and technological progress, indicating a shift in investment strategies [2][19] Group 2 - A framework is presented regarding Trump's support base, which includes diverse groups such as Florida Republicans, MAGA supporters, New York Democrats, and West Coast tech elites, emphasizing the need for Trump to balance these differing perspectives [5][6] - The article identifies Trump as a mercantilist, focusing on domestic surplus and strategic industry support, contrasting this with traditional free trade approaches [7][8] - It discusses the implications of mercantilism on military strength and geopolitical advantages, suggesting that economic power translates into military power and vice versa [9][10][11] Group 3 - The article draws parallels between historical examples, such as the Soviet Union's economic decline and the challenges of technological advancement, to illustrate the complexities of industrial policy and innovation [14][15] - It emphasizes that without technological superiority, military advantages cannot be sustained, which in turn affects mercantilist policies [17] - The discussion includes the potential for new industries to emerge, which would necessitate supportive macroeconomic policies, highlighting the importance of innovation in driving economic growth [17][18]

Tax Origin and Characteristics - Tariffs originated as a form of transit tax, primarily for controlling the movement of goods and maintaining border security[2] - Historically, tariffs were not significant in fiscal systems until the rise of international trade in the 16th century[2] Evolution of Tariff Functions - The function of tariffs has evolved from revenue collection to industry protection and economic regulation, influenced by economic development and prevailing economic ideologies[3] - Five distinct phases of tariff evolution are identified, with the latest phase (2018-present) marked by a resurgence of protectionism under the Trump administration[4][24] Global Economic Dependence on Tariffs - Countries are categorized based on their reliance on tariff revenue: low dependence (below 3%), medium dependence (3%-5%), and high dependence (above 5%)[5][25] - Developed economies like the US, Japan, and the UK have low tariff revenue reliance, with figures such as 1.2% for the US and 0.5% for Japan in 2022[5][28] Medium Dependence Economies - Countries like India and Vietnam show medium dependence on tariffs, with tariff revenue constituting 4.1% and 3.1% of national fiscal income respectively in 2022[6][31] High Dependence Economies - The Philippines exemplifies high dependence on tariffs, with 18.1% of its national fiscal income derived from tariffs in 2022, significantly higher than other nations[6][33] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in global trade policies and shifts in international economic and political landscapes[7]