摘要周一（7月28日），上周五，美元指数连续第二日反弹，最终收涨0.219%，报97.66，但周线仍然收 阴。由于美欧贸易谈判取得进展的迹象打压避险需求，现货黄金连跌三日，创一周新低，最终收跌 0.92%，收报3337.18美元/盎司，抹去周内全部涨幅；现货白银美盘跳水，一度跌破38关口，尾盘小幅 回升，最终收跌2.39%，报38.17美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周一（7月28日），上周五，美元指数连续第二日反弹，最终收涨0.219%，报97.66，但周线仍然收阴。 由于美欧贸易谈判取得进展的迹象打压避险需求，现货黄金连跌三日，创一周新低，最终收跌0.92%， 收报3337.18美元/盎司，抹去周内全部涨幅；现货白银美盘跳水，一度跌破38关口，尾盘小幅回升，最 终收跌2.39%，报38.17美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 特朗普宣布美欧达成贸易协议：对欧盟征收15%关税、6000亿美元对美投资、欧盟各国对美实行0关 税、欧盟将购买美国军事装备，并将购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源产品。然而，美欧对15%关税协议 是否覆盖药品和钢铝表述不一。冯德莱恩：15%税率是欧委会能够达成的最佳结果。 特朗普：正在考虑与其他三 ...

石破茂：将竭尽全力执行与特朗普的贸易协议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has successfully leveraged its tariff war to gain significant concessions from the EU, allowing for increased access to the $20 trillion European market and commitments for military purchases, which benefits both the U.S. economy and Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia [1][9]. Group 1: Tariff Strategy - The U.S. has shifted its strategy from providing aid to selling military equipment to the EU, which is now required to purchase U.S. weapons to support Ukraine against Russia [3]. - The U.S. threatened to impose a 30% tariff, which pressured the EU to agree to a reduced tariff rate of 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of U.S. tactics [3][6]. - The EU's acceptance of the 15% tariff is seen as a significant concession, as a 30% tariff would have been detrimental to the EU [6]. Group 2: EU's Position and Response - The concessions made by the EU highlight an unequal power dynamic between the EU and the U.S., with the EU historically supporting U.S. foreign strategies [8]. - The leadership of the EU Commission, particularly Ursula von der Leyen, has been criticized for prioritizing U.S. interests over those of the EU during negotiations [8]. - There is growing discontent among EU member states regarding the agreements made with the U.S., indicating internal divisions and dissatisfaction with the current trade dynamics [8][9].

Group 1 - The trade agreement between Trump and the EU maintains a 15% tariff level on Japan, with Europe committing to purchase $750 billion in American energy, $600 billion in investments in the US, and several hundred billion dollars in military arms [1][3] - The EU's military arms purchases are driven by the actual need to strengthen military capabilities, with a 5% GDP military spending standard increasing procurement scales, and are part of the support for Ukraine, reflecting a consensus on buying American weapons [3] - The EU's decision to buy $750 billion in American energy undermines Russia's financial support for the war, as the funds spent on Russian energy far exceed the aid provided to Ukraine, highlighting the EU's previous reliance on Russian energy [3] Group 2 - The EU's military spending and arms procurement are a response to the ongoing conflict, with the recognition that Europe lacks the capacity for large-scale military production, leading to the rejection of proposals to keep weapon production within Europe [3] - The Biden administration's previous environmental policies limited the availability of American energy supplies to Europe, contributing to high international oil prices and allowing Russia to maintain substantial wartime revenue [3] - The EU's financial support for Ukraine has been complicated by its simultaneous funding of Russia through energy purchases, indicating a need for a strategic shift in energy sourcing to effectively support Ukraine [3]

Core Points - The US and EU have reached a significant trade agreement, marking the end of months of trade uncertainty [2][4] - The agreement includes a 15% uniform tariff, $600 billion in investments, and $750 billion in energy purchases from the US [4][6] - The deal is seen as a major win for President Trump, who claims it is the largest agreement of its kind [4][7] Trade Agreement Details - The agreement stipulates a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US, with key industries exempted [4][11] - The EU will increase investments in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products [4][6] - The agreement is expected to benefit the automotive industry and have significant implications for agriculture and the semiconductor sector [4][6] Reactions from EU Officials - EU Commission President von der Leyen stated that the agreement is the best possible outcome given the current circumstances [6] - There are concerns within the EU about the reliance on US liquefied natural gas and the impact of the 15% tariff on the overall EU GDP [12][14] - Some EU officials express dissatisfaction, arguing that the agreement does not align with Europe's fundamental interests and may cause long-term harm [14][15] Market Implications - The agreement alleviates fears of a transatlantic trade war, providing a sense of predictability for financial markets [17][20] - Analysts suggest that the deal is a moderate positive for the stock market, as much of the content may have already been priced in [21] - The removal of the risk of further tariff increases is seen as a significant macroeconomic relief [19][20] Future Considerations - Attention will shift to the interpretation and execution of the agreement, which may present political and technical challenges [23] - The potential for ongoing uncertainty remains, as highlighted by some analysts [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers daily insights and trend analyses for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, etc. It assesses each commodity's price trends, supported by fundamental data and macro - industry news, and gives a trend strength rating for each commodity [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate downward, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][7][8]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Domestic inventory reduction restricts price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][10][12]. - Zinc: High - level oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][13][15]. - Lead: Lacks driving force, price oscillates, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - Tin: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - Aluminum: High - level oscillation; Alumina has intense long - short game; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend strength is 0, Alumina is - 1, and Aluminum alloy is 0 [2][24][26]. - Nickel: Macro expectations determine the direction, fundamentals limit elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is dominated by macro sentiment, and the real - world situation needs repair, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Commodity prices fell on Friday night, pay attention to the spread of pessimistic sentiment, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment declines, pay attention to the risk of sharp decline, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Sentiment declines, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, strong - biased oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][38]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Resonance in sector market, strong - biased oscillation, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][40][42]. - Ferrosilicon: Disturbed by energy consumption and carbon emission information, strong - biased trend, with a trend strength of 1; Silicomanganese: Disturbed by industry's cut - throat competition information, strong - biased trend, with a trend strength of 1 [2][45][47]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Emotions are realized, wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][48][50]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovers, oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. Others - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly [2][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of -1 [2][7]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - For copper, the decrease in domestic inventory restricts price decline, and its trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - Zinc is likely to experience high - level oscillations, with a trend strength of -1 [2][14]. - Lead lacks driving forces, and its price will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - Tin prices are disturbed by the flood in Wa State, and its trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 0; alumina has intense multi - empty games, with a trend strength of -1; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25]. - For nickel, macro - expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; for stainless steel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Price and Trading Data - Gold: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪金2510, 黄金T+D, Comex黄金2510, and London gold spot were 777.32, 773.61, 3338.50, and 3336.68 respectively, with daily declines of 0.18%, 0.19%, 0.97%, and 0.97% [5]. - Silver: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪银2510, 白银T+D, Comex白银2510, and London silver spot were 9392, 9372, 38.325, and 38.158 respectively, with daily changes of 0.06%, 0.22%, - 2.44%, and - 2.40% [5]. Macro and Industry News - The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with a 15% tariff covering most EU goods exported to the US [5]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary monthly decline was - 9.3%, the largest since the pandemic, dragged down by aircraft orders [8]. - It is reported that after the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes this year [8]. - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size saw a narrowed year - on - year decline to 4.3%, with the equipment manufacturing industry playing a prominent supporting role, and the automobile industry's profit increasing by 96.8% [8]. Copper Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铜主力合约 and 伦铜3M电子盘 were 79,250 and 9,796 respectively, with daily declines of 0.80% and 0.59% [9]. Macro and Industry News - Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, then changed his statement, expecting most agreements to be completed before August, and the possibility of Canada reaching a new agreement before the deadline is low [9]. - Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine in Azerbaijan started trial production, with an expected copper concentrate output of 4,000 tons in 2025 [9]. - At least four copper - carrying ships were trying to reach US ports before August 1 to avoid a 50% import tariff on copper [11]. Zinc Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锌主力合约 and 伦锌3M电子盘 were 22,885 and 2,829 respectively, with daily declines of 0.56% and 0.40% [12]. News - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified its position on China - EU differences such as so - called "over - capacity" and industrial subsidies [13]. Lead Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铅主力合约 and 伦铅3M电子盘 were 16,955 and 2,020.5 respectively, with a daily increase of 0.38% for沪铅主力合约 and a decline of 0.12% for 伦铅3M电子盘 [15]. News - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said that in May 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [16]. Tin Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锡主力合约 and 伦锡3M电子盘 were 271,630 and 34,140 respectively, with daily declines of 0.85% and 1.50% [19]. Macro and Industry News - Similar to gold and silver, including US - EU trade agreement, US durable goods orders decline, Japan's possible interest rate hike, China's industrial enterprise profit situation, etc. [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Price and Trading Data - For aluminum, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20,760, and other related data such as trading volume, inventory, and spreads are provided [23]. - For alumina, the closing price of沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3428, and relevant data are also presented [23]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the alloy主力合约 was 20,135, and related data are included [23]. Comprehensive News - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size had a narrowed decline, and the automobile industry's profit increased significantly [25]. - Trump believed that Powell would start suggesting interest rate cuts [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price and Trading Data - For nickel, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,360, and various related industrial chain data are provided [26]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the stainless steel主力 was 13,030, and relevant data are also given [26]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario, Canada's Premier Ford threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [26]. - In April, China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project started trial production, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per single line [27]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [27]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [28]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines was 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [28]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron output by about 1900 metal tons per month [28]. - The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [29].

原油2509： 1.基本面：美国与欧盟周日达成一项框架贸易协议，对欧盟大多数商品征收15%的进口关税，仅为威胁税率 的一半，从而避免了这两个盟友之间爆发更大规模的贸易战；中美两国高级谈判代表周一将在瑞典斯德哥 尔摩举行会晤，以解决作为世界前两大经济体贸易战核心的长期经济争端，旨在延长8月12日的关税临时 "休战"协议期限，避免大幅提高关税；四名OPEC+代表称，OPEC+联合部长级监督委员会不太可能在周一 开会时改变现有增产计划，并指出该联盟渴望恢复市场份额，而夏季需求正帮助吸收多余的石油供应；中 性 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-28原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2.基差：7月25 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 97.51, while spot silver opened at $38.04/oz and is currently around $38.28/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 9181 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9209 CNY/kg [1] - Last Friday, the US dollar index rose by 0.19% to close at 97.67, while spot silver fell by 2.26% to $38.14/oz. The decline in silver was attributed to progress in US-EU trade negotiations, which reduced safe-haven demand [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to a total of 15,230.43 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On July 25, the compensation fee payment direction for Ag (T+D) was in favor of longs [2] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, which includes a 15% tariff, $600 billion in US investments, and zero tariffs from EU countries on US goods. However, there is ambiguity regarding whether the 15% tariff covers pharmaceuticals and steel/aluminum [3] - The US Commerce Secretary stated that the deadline for tariff increases on August 1 will not be extended, and a decision on chip tariffs will be made within two weeks [4] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $38.108, experienced a slight pullback to $38.061, and then surged to a weekly high of $39.523 before retreating. The weekly low was $37.923, and it closed at $38.163, forming a long upper shadow shooting star pattern, indicating potential bearish sentiment for the upcoming week [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the UK CBI retail sales balance at 18:00, the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee meeting at 20:00, and the US Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30 [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. has finalized a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. [1] - The EU is expected to increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1] - The EU will open its $20 trillion market to U.S. automotive and industrial standards, while maintaining current tariffs on steel and aluminum [1] Group 2 - There is still no decision on the spirits sector, and the U.S. will initiate a Section 232 investigation in the pharmaceutical sector [3] - Some EU officials express dissatisfaction with the agreement, arguing it could harm local employment and industry development [3] - Japan has negotiated a reduction in new tariffs from 25% to 15%, with a commitment to invest $550 billion in the U.S. [3] Group 3 - The 15% tariff level is considered high and not sustainable in the long term, contributing to global trade instability [4] - U.S. officials indicate that Trump has the authority to reinstate higher tariffs if other countries fail to meet investment commitments [5]