人民财讯11月5日电，为落实中美经贸磋商达成的成果共识，根据《中华人民共和国关税法》、《中华 人民共和国海关法》、《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，经国务院批准， 自2025年11月10日13时01分起，停止实施《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的部分进口商品加 征关税的公告》(税委会公告2025年第2号)规定的加征关税措施。 ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周二（11月4日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计87816千克，今日仓单 较上一日持平。 美联储内部分歧正在加剧。多位美联储官员则以不同形式表达了对12月再次降息可能性的担忧。美联储 10月如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.75%-4.00%，为年内第二次降息；并宣布自12月1日起 结束资产负债表缩减。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，12月是否进一步降息"远非已成定局"，政府停摆导致数 据缺失，可能影响后续决策。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率维持70%左右。美元指数和美债 收益率震荡偏强。 | | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上期所指定交割金库 | 87816 | 0 | 中美吉隆坡经贸磋商成果共识公布。美方将取消针对中国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商 品加征的24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周二（11月4日）黄金期货开盘价921.90元/克，截至目前最高92586元/克，最 低912.08元/克。截止发稿报915.58元/克，跌幅0.50%，成交量为332993手，持仓为144602手，日持仓减 少6 ...

Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility on November 3, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 5% and Ethereum falling close to 9%, breaking the critical support level of $3600 [2][6] - As of the report, Bitcoin was down over 3% at $106,442 million, while Ethereum was down nearly 7% at $3588 million [3] - Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL, XRP, BNB, and Dogecoin also saw declines exceeding 8% [2][3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daly indicated that previous support for interest rate cuts was appropriate, suggesting a more favorable position for the Fed after a 50 basis point cut this year [6] - Fed Governor Milan expressed that the current policy is overly restrictive and that the neutral policy rate is significantly lower than current levels [6] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 67.3%, with a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by January having a probability of 22.3% [6] Ethereum ETF Performance - Matrixport reported that Ethereum ETFs have shown lackluster performance recently, with net inflows dropping from $5.2 billion in July to $600 million in October [6] - A continued lack of new capital inflow could lead to a more significant correction in Ethereum's price [6] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases, contributing to rising international oil prices due to changing supply expectations [11][12] - Analysts noted that potential military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela could disrupt 900,000 barrels per day of oil supply [12] - The decision to pause production aligns with OPEC+'s strategy to adjust capacity based on market conditions, especially as the first quarter of the year is typically a seasonal demand lull [12][13] Geopolitical Factors and Oil Prices - Recent geopolitical risks, including tensions in Venezuela and U.S. sanctions on Russia, have influenced oil price movements, with prices rebounding due to these factors [13][14] - Despite short-term price increases, analysts predict long-term downward pressure on oil prices due to expected oversupply and weakening global economic growth [14]

据央视11月3日报道，中美经贸磋商达成成果共识后，美方高层密集发声，白宫也公布了落实相关共识 的具体时间表。美国总统特朗普表示，与中国合作可以让美国"变得更好"。 当地时间11月2日晚，美国哥伦比亚广播公司播出了对美国总统特朗普的专访。在谈及中美关系时，特 朗普表示，与中国保持良好的关系符合美国的利益。 "我觉得我们（美中）相处得非常好，我认为与中国合作而不是将他们击倒，可以让我们变得更强大、 更出色，我们与一个强大的国家（中国）保持着良好的关系。而且我一直认为，若能达成不错的协议， 与中国和睦相处总比对立好。"特朗普说。 同一天，美国财政部长贝森特分别对两家美媒表示，美方无意同中国脱钩。 来源：@央视网 （文章来源：中国基金报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to face a new round of horizontal adjustment in November due to the exhaustion of previous upward momentum and the concentration of three major favorable factors at the end of October, suggesting investors should pause on increasing positions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The market experienced a surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, driven by the recovery of technology stocks and the positive impact of the "14th Five-Year Plan," Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the disclosure of third-quarter reports from key industries [2]. - The third-quarter reports indicate a positive recovery trend in A-share performance, with significant growth in major sectors, particularly in traditional cyclical industries and technology sectors, showing strong recovery signs [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Recommendations - The report highlights three main directions for investment: 1) Focus on sectors with positive economic signals, particularly renewable energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries) and non-bank financials (brokerage, insurance); 2) Year-end portfolio adjustments favoring sectors with lower performance in the first ten months, such as coal, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, food and beverage, and transportation; 3) Short-term switches to sectors that experienced the largest declines in October, including media, beauty care, and automotive [3]. - Key sectors to watch include coal, oil and petrochemicals, renewable energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries), non-bank financials (brokerage, insurance), public utilities, media, food and beverage, and transportation [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations this week, with small-cap stocks performing relatively well while the STAR 50 index saw a decline of 3.19% for the week. The AI hardware sector faced significant adjustments, indicating a potential shift in market leadership towards AI applications as November begins [1][2]. Market Performance - The AI hardware sector's sharp decline on Friday was unexpected for many investors, marking a notable day of losses for the leading sector of the current bull market [1][2]. - Historical trends suggest that the last few days of the third-quarter earnings report period often lead to market adjustments and significant volatility in leading sectors [2]. Sector Analysis - Some core stocks in the AI hardware sector did not meet investor expectations, particularly in the case of CPO [2]. - Despite the recent downturn, the overall impact on the market is expected to be short-term, with mid-term performance dependent on other sectors [2]. November Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken out of its previous trading range, indicating a potential upward trend in early November [2]. - Historical data from 2019 to 2024 shows that five out of six years experienced a rebound at the beginning of November, with only one instance of a minor decline of 1.55% [4]. Support Levels - The market is expected to find support around 3930 points, with two key support levels identified: the high point of 3936 from October 9 and the gap from October 24 [4][5]. AI Hardware Sector Sentiment - The current sentiment in the AI hardware sector is negative, with reports indicating that institutional investors' technology positions have surpassed 40% and warnings about potential overvaluation in the TMT sector [6][7]. - The lack of strong performance from core stocks, such as Nvidia's $5 trillion market cap not boosting A-share AI hardware stocks, has contributed to the sector's decline [6]. AI Applications Sector - In contrast to the AI hardware sector, the AI applications sector (including media, entertainment, and software services) has begun to show strength, suggesting that market funds are still focused on AI as a primary theme [9]. - Key stocks like Kingsoft Office and 360 have performed well, serving as indicators for the potential of a sustained rally in the AI applications sector [9][10]. Year-End Market Characteristics - Historically, entering November often leads to a period of performance vacuum in the market, with active funds seeking to create speculative stocks [11]. - Potential themes for speculative stocks include zodiac-related concepts, Hainan free trade zone topics, and emerging hotspots [12]. Pharmaceutical and Liquor Sectors - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, may be more appealing to market funds compared to liquor, especially following recent U.S.-China trade discussions [15]. - The innovative drug sector index has recently broken through a month-long consolidation, which could boost confidence in the sector [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of the recent US-China trade negotiations on various industries, including technology, electronics, textiles, and shipping. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Negotiation Outcomes** The negotiations resulted in the suspension of new restrictions and the cancellation of the 10% tariff on fentanyl, which is expected to stabilize US-China relations and positively impact the Chinese economy [1][5][8]. 2. **Impact on Chinese Exports** A potential 10% reduction in US tariffs could lower the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods to around 28%, which would directly boost Chinese exports to the US and enhance overall export growth by approximately one percentage point [1][3][4]. 3. **Technology Sector Benefits** The negotiations are favorable for the technology sector, particularly with the expected cancellation of the 10% fentanyl tariff on electronic products, which would stimulate demand and alleviate valuation pressures on the electronics sector [1][6][7]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Stock Valuation** The outcomes of the negotiations have slightly exceeded market expectations, leading to a recovery in stock valuations, particularly in the technology and electronics sectors. Investor sentiment has improved, creating potential investment opportunities [1][8][9]. 5. **Short-term Market Trends** While the trade negotiation results are not expected to alter the current market trend significantly, there are concerns about overheating in certain sectors, particularly TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), which may lead to market volatility if new catalysts do not emerge [1][10]. 6. **Recommendations for Sector Allocation** It is suggested to shift towards a more balanced allocation strategy by focusing on sectors such as lithium batteries, non-ferrous metals, and consumer electronics, while also considering opportunities in overseas markets like power grid equipment and commercial vehicles [1][11][12]. 7. **Color on the Non-ferrous Metals Sector** The cancellation of tariffs is expected to lower global trade friction costs and boost demand for non-ferrous metals, marking the beginning of a prolonged bull market for metals like copper, aluminum, and rare earth elements [1][13]. 8. **Shipping Industry Implications** The trade agreement is anticipated to benefit the shipping industry, particularly companies like China COSCO Shipping, due to increased demand for shipping services between China and the US [1][15][16]. 9. **Textile and Apparel Industry Effects** The US remains a significant market for Chinese textiles and apparel, and the easing of trade tensions could improve production utilization rates and profitability in this sector [1][20][23]. 10. **Home Appliance Sector Outlook** The reduction in tariff pressure is expected to positively impact the home appliance sector, particularly for companies with high export ratios to North America, aiding in the recovery of their profit margins [1][21][22]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The negotiations have also led to a strategic pause in the implementation of export controls on rare earth products, which underscores China's significant role in the global rare earth supply chain [1][14]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a continued recovery in various sectors as trade relations stabilize [1][9].

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The U.S. will reduce the fentanyl tariff by 10 percentage points, while China will lower retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products (such as soybeans) and energy[5] - Both sides will suspend the 24% reciprocal tariffs and the 50% export control measures for one year[5] - Maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sanctions will also be paused for one year[6] Group 2: Market Implications - The outcomes align with market expectations and previous forecasts regarding rare earth controls and soybean purchases in exchange for tariff reductions[7] - After the tariff reductions, China's tariffs are now on par with Southeast Asia, only 5 percentage points higher than those of Europe and Japan, which is marginally beneficial for exports[7] Group 3: Future Developments - Tariff disputes are expected to evolve, with less likelihood of comprehensive increases in the future, and the fentanyl tariff may continue to be eliminated in subsequent negotiations[8] - Despite recent U.S. retreats in trade confrontations, ongoing competition suggests that conflicts may persist, particularly in electronics, new energy, and pharmaceuticals[8] Group 4: Risk Factors - There are risks of actual execution falling short of expectations, potential policy reversals, and changes in import-export policies[12]

Group 1 - The U.S. will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, including those from Hong Kong and Macau, while the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will remain suspended for another year [1] - China will adjust its countermeasures regarding the tariffs imposed by the U.S. [2] - Both parties have agreed to continue extending certain tariff exclusion measures [2]