Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of 10%-20% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders of 450 million yuan, representing an 81.5% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuous recovery in business volume and arbitration compensation [1][6]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.07 yuan, with the current price at 9.93 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of 22% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for H1 2025 was 3.726 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 750 million yuan, up 71.3% year-on-year [6][7]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.905 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 450 million yuan, an 81.5% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - **Segment Analysis**: - Aviation revenue for H1 2025 was 1.57 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year, with passenger throughput reaching 40.03 million, a 9.2% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - Non-aviation revenue was 2.15 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year, with leasing and franchise income contributing significantly [6][7]. - **Cost and Expenses**: - Operating costs for H1 2025 were 2.651 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, while total operating expenses were 256 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 8.182 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.2% [2][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.402 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 51.5% increase year-on-year [2][11]. Market Position and Developments - The company is expanding its operations with the upcoming completion of the T3 terminal and additional runways, which will enhance its capacity to handle 140 million passengers and over 600,000 tons of cargo annually [6][7]. - A significant contract for duty-free operations at the T3 terminal has been signed, expected to contribute positively to future revenues [6][7].

Group 1 - As of August 13, 2025, China Duty Free Group's stock price closed at 65.63 yuan, down 0.02 yuan or 0.03% from the previous trading day [1] - The stock had a trading volume of 244,828 hands and a turnover of 1.617 billion yuan, with a fluctuation range of 1.98% [1] - The stock opened at 66.15 yuan, reached a high of 66.80 yuan, and a low of 65.50 yuan during the trading session [1] Group 2 - China Duty Free Group is a leading duty-free operator in China, primarily engaged in the sale of duty-free goods [1] - The company operates duty-free stores in multiple key ports and cities across the country, covering various channels including airports, ports, and downtown areas [1] Group 3 - The first city duty-free store in Guangzhou is set to open on August 26, featuring a business model that combines "duty-free + taxable," "imported + domestic," and "offline + online" sales [1] - The new store will offer a diverse range of products including beauty and skincare, watches and jewelry, and high-end alcoholic beverages, along with various consumer experience activities during the opening period [1] Group 4 - On August 13, the main funds for China Duty Free Group experienced a net outflow of 112.3344 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 10.9584 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Group 1 - The company has established two duty-free stores in collaboration with China National Pharmaceutical Group's subsidiary, namely Beijing Foreign Exchange Commodity Duty-Free Store and Nanjing Foreign Exchange Commodity Duty-Free Store [2] - The company is actively optimizing and adjusting its duty-free business plans in accordance with relevant policies and the actual operating conditions of the duty-free stores [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, continuing the downward trend observed since 2024, with a focus on strategic transformation and market adaptation in the face of increasing competition and changing consumer behavior [1][4][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.151 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.6 billion yuan, down 20.81% compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The gross profit margin decreased, with the net profit margin reported at 6%, which is below market expectations [4]. - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were 75.152 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.45% from the beginning of the period [3]. Market Position - Despite the decline in overall revenue and profit, the company's market share in the Hainan offshore duty-free market increased by nearly 1 percentage point [1][5]. - The shopping amount in Hainan for the first half of the year was 16.761 billion yuan, showing a decline of 9.2% year-on-year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its strategic transformation by expanding its "duty-free+" boundaries and focusing on exclusive, co-branded, and customized products to stimulate consumer spending [5]. - Plans to enhance the dual-drive model of "duty-free + taxable" and "online + offline" are in place to adapt to upcoming changes in the market [8]. Management Changes - The company has experienced significant management turnover, with three chairpersons in the last two years, indicating potential instability in leadership during challenging times [7]. Future Outlook - With the upcoming full closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, the company anticipates benefiting from policy incentives and consumer upgrades, aiming for high-quality development through strategic adjustments [8].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Zhimian Group is transitioning its strategic focus from real estate to core duty-free business, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in the consumer sector [3][4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company held an investor briefing on June 4, 2025, to discuss its 2024 annual performance and Q1 2025 results [1][2]. - Key executives, including the chairman and president, participated in the meeting to address investor inquiries [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 919 million yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 91 million yuan [5][6]. - The company’s total liabilities and total assets are both over 4 billion yuan, indicating a significant financial restructuring [4]. Group 3: Strategic Transition - The company completed a major asset restructuring by the end of December 2024, planning to gradually exit the real estate sector [3][4]. - The strategic focus will now be on the duty-free business, leveraging resources from its indirect controlling shareholder, Huafa Group [3][5]. Group 4: Market and Policy Environment - The company is closely monitoring policy changes in the Hainan Free Trade Port and the Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone, which are key areas for future business development [5][6]. - Recent government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and consumption are expected to positively impact the company's duty-free and consumer business [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing a gradual recovery in profitability, with a focus on exploring non-aeronautical revenue potential [1][4] - The company has shown strong cost control, leading to a significant increase in net profit [2][3] - Future growth is expected from steady increases in airport traffic, although the recovery of duty-free sales remains uncertain [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 3.172 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 519 million RMB, up 34.5% [1][2] - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 12.369 billion RMB, a 12.0% increase, and net profit of 1.934 billion RMB, which is a 107.0% increase, largely due to compensation from land acquisition [1][3] - The company’s operating costs remained stable, contributing to a gross profit increase of 19.9% in Q1 2025 [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 11.047 billion RMB in 2023 to 15.703 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.14% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 934 million RMB in 2023 to 3.386 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.38 RMB in 2023 to 1.36 RMB in 2027 [5] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 37.00 RMB, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis [4][6] - The valuation reflects a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Wangfujing Group is undergoing a significant transformation as it approaches its 70th anniversary in 2025, evolving from a traditional department store to a comprehensive retail model, including duty-free operations [1] Group 1: Business Transformation and Growth - Wangfujing is actively innovating its retail formats to adapt to a segmented consumer market, opening 4 shopping centers in 2024 while closing underperforming stores [2] - The company introduced 2,454 new brands across 192,000 square meters in its stores during the year [2] - Marketing initiatives have engaged nearly 80 stores and collaborated with over 200 media outlets, achieving an exposure of over 500 million times, with a 20% increase in foot traffic during the "925 Beautiful Life Festival" compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Duty-Free Business Expansion - In 2024, the number of foreign visitors with visa-free entry reached 20.115 million, a 112.3% increase year-on-year, benefiting the duty-free sector [3] - Wangfujing has 26 stores authorized for departure tax refund services, with 10 of them offering "buy and refund" services, leading to a significant increase in transaction volumes [3] - The company has expanded its duty-free operations to include two airport and two city duty-free projects, achieving comprehensive coverage of duty-free business types [3] Group 3: ESG and Sustainable Practices - Wangfujing promotes a green and healthy lifestyle, focusing on low-carbon operations and social responsibility, with 13 shopping centers certified as green [4] - The company aims to leverage the dual advantages of "taxable + duty-free" business models to capture growth opportunities in the evolving market landscape [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Development's proposal for the delayed injection of duty-free assets was rejected by shareholders, leading to significant market reactions and a sharp decline in stock price [1][2]. Company Summary - Hainan Development announced that its proposal to delay the injection of duty-free assets was rejected at the 2025 second extraordinary general meeting, with 56.22% of votes against the proposal [1]. - The proposal was put forth by the controlling shareholder, Hainan Development Holdings, which cited increased competition in the duty-free market and continuous losses of the asset as reasons for the delay [1]. - The stock price of Hainan Development fell sharply, with a cumulative decline of over 30% from March 28 to April 9, reaching a low of 6.20 CNY per share [1]. Industry Summary - The duty-free industry is experiencing heightened interest, with analysts noting that the delay in asset injection contrasts sharply with market expectations, exacerbating selling sentiment [2]. - Tax-free goods have a price advantage due to the exemption from tariffs and consumption taxes, and there is potential for sales to shift towards duty-free channels amid tariff policy adjustments [2]. - However, the global consumer goods entity, as a latecomer in the Hainan duty-free market, faces significant competition from established players, leading to ongoing losses [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][15]. Core Views - The company's actual performance for 2024 aligns with previous reports, with a revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, down 16.38%, and a net profit of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% [10][15]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 50% [10][15]. - The company is experiencing pressure in its Hainan operations but has increased its market share through product adjustments [2][11]. - The company benefits from the recovery of international passenger traffic, with significant revenue growth in airport stores [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 56.474 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.38%, and the net profit was 4.267 billion yuan, a decline of 36.44% [9][10]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.453 billion yuan, down 19.46%, and a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% [10][15]. - The gross profit margin for the main business was 31.5%, with a slight increase of 0.15 percentage points [3][12]. Market Dynamics - The company's sales in Hainan decreased by 27% to 28.9 billion yuan, with specific stores in Sanya and Haikou experiencing declines of 28% [2][11]. - The company's tax-free sales revenue decreased by 16%, while the taxable sales revenue fell by 23% [2][11]. - The company has gained nearly 2 percentage points in market share despite the challenging environment [2][11]. Future Outlook - The company is advised to monitor the recovery pace of overall consumption, especially in Hainan, as sales figures show signs of marginal improvement [4][14]. - The company has secured the operating rights for six new city duty-free stores, which are expected to contribute to future growth [4][14]. - The company maintains a strong position in the market with its multi-channel strategy, including Hainan, airports, online, and city stores [15].

旅游零售Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 基本状况 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 | 总股本(百万股) | 2,068.86 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,068.86 | | 市价(元) | 61.61 | | 市值(百万元) | 127,462.41 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 127,462.41 | 交易预期》2024-11-11 2、《23 年业绩符合预期，需求承压 下估值或不低》2024-04-09 中国中免（601888.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元 ...