Core Viewpoint - Japan's GDP for the April to June period shows a seasonally adjusted growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0%, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [2][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth exceeded the median forecast of 0.3%, with personal consumption contributing to a 0.2% increase, consistent with the previous quarter [4]. - Equipment investment rose by 1.3%, particularly in software, while public investment decreased by 0.5% and government consumption remained flat [4]. - Exports grew by 2.0%, driven by increases in electronic components and equipment, while imports rose by 0.6%, primarily due to higher oil and natural gas imports [4]. Group 2: Contributions to GDP Growth - Domestic demand contributed negatively by 0.1 percentage points, marking a return to negative contributions after two quarters, largely due to inventory effects [5]. - External demand contributed positively by 0.3 percentage points, indicating a stronger performance in exports compared to imports [5]. - The revised GDP growth for January to March was adjusted to a positive 0.1%, transitioning from a previously reported negative growth [5].

Core Insights - Significant downward revision of employment growth and adjustments in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation methods have raised questions about the reliability of official statistics [5][6][19] - Bank of America (BofA) maintains that these data remain reliable but advises caution regarding initial employment figures [6][11] - Alternative data cannot replace official statistics but can provide a reasonable check on the data [7][24] Employment Data - The recent downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June is the largest adjustment outside of the pandemic period [8][11] - BofA suggests evaluating these revisions in terms of both absolute numbers and their proportion of total employment, indicating that the latest adjustments, while significant, are not as abnormal when viewed in context [11][12] - The response rate for surveys has declined, which may lead to larger-than-normal revisions, but the revisions typically fall within a 90% confidence interval [13][14][16] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The increase in imputed data within the CPI is a concern, but BofA believes there is no immediate cause for alarm [20][21] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has had to rely more on imputed prices due to reduced data collection, which could potentially distort inflation readings [20][21] - BofA's analysis indicates that the reduction in CPI sample collection has not significantly impacted overall CPI changes, with discrepancies being less than 1 percentage point [21] Alternative Data Sources - In light of concerns over government data reliability, BofA identifies several alternative data sources, such as Homebase, ADP, and credit card spending data, which can provide insights into labor market conditions and consumer spending [24][26][27] - While these alternative data sources are useful supplements, BofA emphasizes that there is no perfect substitute for official statistics [28] GDP Tracking Adjustments - BofA has revised its second-quarter GDP growth estimate down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, influenced by lower-than-expected construction spending and downward revisions in payroll data [29][30] - The adjustments in GDP tracking reflect changes in employment data, construction spending, and inventory levels, indicating a more cautious economic outlook [29][30]

中新社华盛顿7月30日电 (记者 沙晗汀)美国商务部当地时间30日公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第二季 度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算增长3%，高于市场普遍预期。 数据显示，2025年二季度美国经济环比增长3%，扭转了第一季度经济环比萎缩0.5%的局面。 美媒认为，第二季度经济增长主要受进口大幅下降和个人消费支出增加影响。进口大幅下降主要与第一 季度进口大幅增长有关，第一季度企业试图在特朗普政府加征关税政策实施前大量进口外国商品。 经济学家认为，美国经济显示出韧性，当前消费者仍在消费，但消费者对因关税政策带来的不确定性感 到担忧。 美国总统特朗普当天在社交媒体发文称，第二季度经济数据"比预期好太多了"，美国联邦储备委员 会"必须现在降息"，促进民众消费。 从具体环比数据来看，今年二季度，占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费支出增长1.4%；反映企业投资状 况的非住宅类固定资产投资增长1.9%；住宅类固定资产投资下降4.6%；政府消费支出和投资增长 0.4%；出口下降1.8%，进口大幅下降30.3%。 按贡献度计算，个人消费支出拉动当季经济增长0.98个百分点；政府消费支出和投资拉动当季经济增长 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting this year where rates were held steady, aligning with market expectations [2] Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released an initial estimate indicating that the actual GDP for the second quarter of 2025 is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.0% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Italy's economy experienced a slight contraction in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year GDP growth was recorded at 0.4%, down from 0.7% in Q1 2025 [1] Economic Performance - The contraction was primarily driven by a slowdown in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and industrial value added, while the service sector remained stable [1] - Despite positive domestic demand, net exports negatively impacted the economy [1] Future Projections - If the economic growth remains unchanged for the rest of the year, Italy's GDP annual growth rate is projected to be 0.5% [1] - The Italian Minister of Economy and Finance, Giancarlo Giorgetti, stated that the government will maintain its previous GDP growth forecast of 0.6% for the entire year of 2025, despite the slight slowdown in Q2 [1]

德国联邦统计局7月30日公布数据显示，德国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）经价格、季节和日历因素 调整后，环比下降0.1%，经价格调整后，同比持平，经价格和日历调整后，同比增长0.4%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed more than expected in June, driven by a decline in imports, indicating a decrease in the previous phenomenon of stockpiling imports due to tariff expectations [1] - The U.S. trade deficit in goods decreased by 10.8% in June, falling to $86 billion, which was below the predictions of all economists surveyed [1] - U.S. imports fell by 4.2% to $264.2 billion in June, with consumer goods imports reaching their lowest level since September 2020, and industrial goods imports at their lowest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The latest trade data has led some economists to raise their GDP forecasts for the U.S. in the second quarter, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model increasing its estimate to 2.9%, attributing over 4 percentage points of contribution from net exports [1] - Retail inventories rose by 0.3% in June, the largest increase since September of the previous year, primarily due to a surge in auto dealer inventories [2] - U.S. manufacturers continue to face uncertainty due to the changing tariff policies under Trump, with potential risks of significant tax increases if agreements are not reached before the deadline [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed more than expected in June, reflecting a general decline in imports [1] - The trade deficit decreased by 10.8% from the previous month to $86 billion, which was below the expected $98 billion [1] - U.S. goods imports fell by 4.2% to $264.2 billion, while exports decreased by 0.6% [1] - This data will assist economists in adjusting their estimates for the net export contribution to GDP in the second quarter, with related data to be released on Wednesday [1] - The trade distortions that negatively impacted GDP earlier in the year are expected to reverse in the most recent quarter [1]

Summary of Economic Implications of Possible Tariff Scenarios Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the implications of proposed tariff increases in the United States, particularly under the Trump administration's trade policies, which have raised the effective tariff rate (ETR) significantly. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Increases and Proposals - The US's effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 9 percentage points (pp) so far, with proposals for higher "reciprocal" tariffs on several countries, including a 50% sectoral tariff on copper and a potential rise in baseline tariff rates to 15-20% [2][5][6]. - The expectation is for the ETR to rise by around 14pp by the end of the current year, with further increases anticipated in 2026 and 2027, leading to a total increase of 17pp by 2027 [2][6]. Inflation and Consumer Prices - The proposed tariffs are estimated to boost core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by about 1.7% cumulatively over the next 2-3 years, with revised expectations for year-over-year core PCE inflation of 3.3% in December 2025, 2.7% in 2026, and 2.4% in 2027 [2][21]. - The passthrough rate of higher costs into consumer prices is now expected to be around 65%, down from 70% previously, indicating a slower adjustment to increased import costs [10][11]. Economic Growth Impact - The tariffs are projected to lower year-over-year GDP growth by approximately 1pp in 2025, 0.4pp in 2026, and 0.3pp in 2027, reflecting a tax-like effect on real spending across the economy [2][36]. - A cumulative GDP hit from the tariff scenarios is estimated at around 2%, with the most extreme scenario suggesting a 3.3% cumulative GDP hit, translating to a 1.7pp increase in the unemployment rate by 2027 [3][52]. Alternative Scenarios - Four alternative tariff scenarios were explored, ranging from a downside scenario with lower tariffs to an upside scenario with significantly higher tariffs, indicating a weighted-average ETR increase of 16pp in 2025 [39][41]. - The downside scenario could result in a 1.4% boost to core PCE, while the upside scenario could lead to a nearly 3% increase by the end of 2027 [44]. Uncertainty and Business Investment - Heightened uncertainty from tariff changes is expected to dampen business investment, although recent measures of policy uncertainty have decreased, suggesting a smaller drag on growth than previously anticipated [27][36]. - The analysis indicates that financial conditions have loosened despite tariff increases, which may mitigate some negative impacts on capital expenditures [32][36]. Conclusion - The overall outlook suggests lower growth and higher inflation in 2026 and 2027 compared to previous forecasts, with risks tilted towards higher tariffs and inflation, and downside risks to growth through 2027 [57]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may adopt a wait-and-see approach to policy in light of potential tariff increases, with aggressive rate cuts becoming necessary if extreme tariff scenarios materialize [57].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of China's GDP accounting methods and preliminary results for the second quarter and first half of 2025, highlighting the importance of GDP as a key economic indicator and the methodologies used for its calculation [1][5]. Summary by Sections 1. GDP Accounting Overview - GDP is defined as the final result of production activities of all resident units in a country during a specific period, serving as a core indicator of national economic performance [5]. - There are three methods for GDP accounting: production method, income method, and expenditure method, each reflecting different aspects of economic activity [5]. 2. Accounting Scope - The production scope includes goods and services produced for other units, self-consumed goods, knowledge products for self-consumption, and housing services [6]. - The accounting subjects include all resident units within China's economic territory, excluding data from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [7]. 3. Accounting Frequency and Legal Basis - GDP is calculated quarterly, with a shift from cumulative to separate quarterly calculations starting from Q3 2015 [7][8]. - The accounting adheres to the Statistical Law of the People's Republic of China and follows the National Economic Accounting System [8]. 4. GDP Calculation Methods - The article details the classification system for GDP accounting, including the national economic industry classification and the three-sector classification [10]. - Various data sources are utilized for GDP calculation, including national statistical surveys and administrative records [11]. 5. Data Revision and Quality Assessment - The necessity for data revision is emphasized due to the preliminary nature of quarterly GDP estimates, which are later refined with more complete data [14]. - The quality of the underlying data and the methods used for GDP calculation are regularly evaluated to ensure accuracy and reliability [16][17]. 6. Data Publication - Preliminary GDP figures are typically released about 15 days after the end of the quarter, while final verified figures are published in January of the following year [19].