摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于999元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报1003.54元/ 克，跌幅0.16%，最高上探至1006.48元/克，最低触及999.55元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡走 势。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于999元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报1003.54元/克， 跌幅0.16%，最高上探至1006.48元/克，最低触及999.55元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 本周金价冲高至4500美元下方遇阻回落，跌破4460后进一步回撤破低并进入震荡走跌格局。我们反复强 调此为震荡下跌而非单边弱势，下跌过程中常伴随反弹。昨日盘面逼近4400美元大关后受消息面刺激反 弹，一度冲高至4484美元，但日内延续上行的概率较低，冲高回落、维持震荡的可能性较大，因此操作 上建议先空后多、区间布局。短线可关注4472压制位先行做空，下看4450-4440区域，回撤后视情况再 考虑反手做多。 【要闻速递】 关税政策对中贸易影响显著：前十个月美国从中国进口额从3630亿美元收缩至2660亿美元，转而增加了 从越南、墨西哥、泰国及欧 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 今年早些时候，由于担忧这种贵金属可能被加征关税，投资者将大量黄金从境外运入美国。但当特朗普 政府并未实施相关关税后，这种担忧便消散了，促使交易商将这些黄金重新运回瑞士等国的原有存储 地。 与此同时，2025年10月进口额下降3.2%，降至近两年最低水平。截至目前，降幅最大的类别是药品。 美国企业在2025年初曾为规避关税而增加进口，待关税生效后便减少了采购。 客户端 尽管如此，2025年贸易赤字月度数据的大幅波动，并未能扭转美国长期处于高位且不断攀升的贸易赤字 趋势。 文章来源：金十数据 2025年前十个月，贸易赤字总额达到7828亿美元，较2024年同期的7268亿美元增长8%。 美国政府周四公布的数据显示，2025年10月贸易赤字从9月的481亿美元大幅收窄至294亿美元，降幅达 39%，创下16年来最低水平。这份原定更早发布的报告因联邦政府停摆而延迟发布。 如果2025年11月和12月恢复正常趋势，美国2025年全年仍可能录得有史以来第二或第三大的贸易赤字。 赤字大幅收窄是出口增长与进口萎缩共同作用的结果。美国上一次出现如此低的贸易赤字还需追溯到 ...

产业发展总体呈积极态势。有利气候条件为2025-2026农业季增产提供支撑，截至12月24日大坝蓄水率 达到34.7%，截至10月底农产品出口额增长7.3%。工业活动表现不一，但总体积极。第三季度制造业产 出增长2.2%，采掘业增长7.4%，截至10月底发电量增长6.1%，截至11月底水泥销量增长10.6%。服务业 持续巩固，截至10月底旅游入境人数达1800万人次，同比增长14%，旅游收入增长16.7%。 尽管国内形势积极向好，但贸易赤字面临日益增大压力。截至10月底，出口额增长2.6%，主要得益于 磷酸盐及其衍生物（增长16.7%）、航空产品（增长8.3%）、农产品和食品（增长1.1%）出口增长。进 口额增长9.4%，除能源（进口额下降4.4%）外，其他各类产品进口均有所增加，贸易逆差扩大19.6%， 出口覆盖率降至56.5%，外汇储备可满足5个月零21天进口需求。 摩洛哥世界新闻网站12月27日报道，摩洛哥经济与财政部发布最新《经济展望报告》，2025年摩经济以 强劲的国内需求、持续的投资活动及扩大的贸易赤字收官。 家庭消费保持稳健，通胀率处于较低水平（11月为负0.3%），海外侨汇收入增加，消费信贷上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a shift in focus from demand to supply as countries enter a mature industrialization phase. The overall economy is expected to remain stable, with potential for recovery in the steel sector [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of government fiscal policies in influencing trade balances and commodity prices, particularly gold, which is seen as a counter to the U.S. dollar's credit [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for steel mills to implement production cuts effectively to stabilize the market and improve valuations of certain companies within the industry [2][4]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has slightly decreased to 2.409 million tons, with a decline in rebar and hot-rolled coil production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is reported at 90.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [16]. - The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [23]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has rebounded by 16.5% week-on-week, although it remains down 2.0% year-on-year [47]. - Rebar demand has shown a significant increase of 43.5% week-on-week, while overall building material transactions have decreased by 6.3% [37][38]. Price and Profitability - The report notes a slight decline in the current steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index down by 1.5% week-on-week [69]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled products are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [70]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) [8] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) [8] - Baosteel (宝钢股份) [8] - New Steel (新钢股份) [8] - Jiuli Special Materials (久立特材) [8] - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (甬金股份) [8] - Changbao Steel (常宝股份) [8] - Wujin Stainless Steel (武进不锈) [2][8].

Group 1 - The ongoing tariff discussions are primarily focused on trade deficits, not just with China but more broadly [1][2] - There is a concern regarding the competitive position of U.S. and European manufacturers in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market, which is dominated by local players [3][4] - German OEMs have a significant interest in maintaining their presence in China, even if it means accepting a loss in market share [4] Group 2 - The importance of tariffs on imports from Mexico, particularly concerning Chinese vehicle parts, is highlighted, suggesting a potential deal between the U.S. and Mexico [5] - Trade experts indicate that the renegotiation of the USMCA could benefit companies operating in Mexico, possibly involving a requirement for U.S. content [6]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1, 2025, due to India's high tariffs on U.S. goods and its continued purchase of oil and weapons from Russia [2][3] - Trump's actions are seen as a balancing act, simultaneously pressuring India while courting Pakistan through a new energy partnership [2][8] - The U.S. trade deficit with India has reached $45.7 billion, prompting Trump to seek reciprocal tariffs to reduce this gap [2][3] Group 2 - India is the fifth-largest trading partner of the U.S., but Trump's dissatisfaction stems from India's significant oil imports from Russia, which accounted for 35% of its total imports in 2024, totaling $51.5 billion [3][5] - The Indian government has responded firmly, stating that agriculture and dairy are non-negotiable sectors, while also seeking to diversify trade partnerships with Europe and the UK [5][10] - Pakistan is optimistic about the new trade agreement with the U.S., which is expected to enhance cooperation in energy and minerals, with the potential to save $11.3 billion annually on oil imports [5][6] Group 3 - The agreement with Pakistan includes a reduction of tariffs from 29% to 19%, making it more favorable than India's 25% tariff [6][8] - Trump's strategy appears to shift U.S. focus from India to Pakistan, as he aims to counter China's influence in the region through economic partnerships [8][12] - The geopolitical landscape in South Asia is changing, with potential implications for energy markets and international relations, as both India and Pakistan navigate their positions between the U.S. and China [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The State Bank of Pakistan anticipates an expansion of the trade deficit due to increased import demand, a slowdown in global demand, and unfavorable export prices [1] Group 1 - The trade deficit is expected to widen as a result of rising import needs [1] - Global demand is experiencing a slowdown, contributing to the trade deficit [1] - Export prices are unfavorable, further exacerbating the trade deficit situation [1]

Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's economy is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected growth rates of 4.4% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, driven by agricultural recovery and strong domestic demand despite external uncertainties [1][2] Agricultural Sector - The 2024/2025 agricultural season is anticipated to see a grain production of 4.4 million tons, a 41% increase year-on-year, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [1] - Agricultural value added is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 [1] Non-Agricultural Sectors - The non-agricultural sectors are projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with industrial, construction, and service sectors as key drivers [2] - The secondary sector is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in both years, with specific growth rates of 4.2% and 4.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The construction sector is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, supported by events like the Africa Cup in 2025 and the World Cup in 2030 [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is anticipated to be the core growth driver, with expected growth rates of 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, contributing 5.8 and 5 percentage points to GDP respectively [2] - Household consumption is projected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, while government consumption is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4% [2] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to grow by 9.8% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026, following a 10.9% increase in 2024 [2] Trade and External Factors - Net exports are expected to continue dragging down economic growth, with the trade deficit projected to rise from 19.1% of GDP in 2024 to 20.1% in 2026 [3] - The current account deficit is expected to remain in the range of 1.8% to 1.9% [3] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is projected to increase to 19.3% of GDP in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026, with the fiscal deficit rate expected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2026 [3] - Government debt is expected to improve, with domestic debt decreasing by 3 percentage points over three years [3] Monetary Policy - Non-financial sector credit is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, with broad money supply growth remaining above 6% [3] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to cover five months of import needs [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed to $61.6 billion in April 2025, the lowest since September 2023, down from $138.3 billion in March [2] - A major reason for the reduction in the trade deficit was a notable decline in the value of U.S. imports, which fell by 16.3% month-over-month to $351 billion [2] - The decline in imports may indicate weakening demand expectations, which is not a positive sign for economic outlook [4] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 8,000 to 247,000, the highest since October 2024, reflecting signs of a softening job market amid uncertainty from tariff policies [4] - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was reported at 48.5, indicating economic contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [4] - The annualized core inflation rate in April 2025 was steady at 2.8%, but the impact of tariff policies may lead to rising consumer price indices, complicating future inflation targets [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut on June 5, signaling the potential end of its monetary policy cycle, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance [5] - Despite more rate cuts in the Eurozone, the euro remains strong against the dollar, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [5] Group 4 - U.S. stock indices weakened on June 5, with economic performance being a significant drag on market performance [7] - Tesla's stock dropped 14.26% due to escalating tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, resulting in a market cap loss of over $150 billion [7] - Lululemon's first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, but the outlook was negatively impacted by tariff policies, leading to a 22.37% drop in stock price post-earnings [8]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is urging countries involved in tariff negotiations to submit their "best offers" by Wednesday, indicating a sense of urgency to finalize trade deals before the July deadline [1] - The U.S. government has only reached a limited agreement with the UK, which serves more as a framework for ongoing negotiations rather than a final deal [1] - The letter outlines that the U.S. expects countries to present their best proposals in key areas, including tariff and quota concessions on industrial and agricultural products, as well as plans to address non-tariff barriers [1] Group 2 - Republican lawmakers are looking to tariffs to increase federal revenue to offset the costs of tax cuts currently being debated in Congress [2] - Trump's tariff policies have caused significant volatility in the stock market, with a notable increase in May following a series of declines earlier in the year due to tariff announcements [2] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff measures under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded his authority, raising questions about the legality of his tariff methods [2]