Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Shanghai indicates a stabilization in the real estate market, with a total transaction amount of 19.877 billion yuan and an overall premium rate maintained below 15% [1][5][7]. Group 1: Auction Details - On October 20, Shanghai auctioned 6 residential land parcels, attracting over 20 participating companies, resulting in 3 parcels sold at a premium and 3 at the base price, totaling 19.877 billion yuan [1][2]. - The total land area auctioned was 191,600 square meters, with a total planned construction area of 408,700 square meters and a starting price of 18.495 billion yuan [3]. - The highest floor price was recorded at 148,503 yuan per square meter for the Xuhui Binjiang parcel, which set a new record for the area [1][3]. Group 2: Individual Parcel Performance - Xuhui Binjiang parcel: Planned construction area of 30,066.68 square meters, starting price of 4.059 billion yuan, sold for 4.465 billion yuan with a premium rate of 10% [3]. - Jing'an Suhewan parcel: Planned construction area of 95,033.41 square meters, starting price of 2.651 billion yuan, sold for 7.737 billion yuan with a premium rate of 9.03% [4]. - Yangpu Dongwaitan parcel: Planned construction area of 37,396.65 square meters, starting price of 2.281 billion yuan, sold for 2.612 billion yuan with a premium rate of 14.69% [3][4]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Industry experts suggest that the overall premium rate remaining below 15% reflects a rational market performance, which is expected to influence the new housing sales market positively [5][7]. - The auction attracted mainly state-owned enterprises and local investment platforms, indicating a stable interest in prime land parcels [6]. - The release of quality land parcels, combined with new housing policies, suggests a favorable development potential for the auctioned lands [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing continued pressure with both investment and sales declining. In the first nine months of 2025, national real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, with the decline rate widening by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. The sales area of new commercial housing was 65,835 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year, and the sales amount was 63,040 billion yuan, down 7.9% [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - **New Housing Transactions and Inventory**: In the last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 198.09 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 70,689.5 million square meters, down 4.9% year-on-year. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 165.43 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year, but up 5.9% month-on-month [5][13] - **Second-hand Housing Transactions and Listings**: In the last week, the transaction area of second-hand housing in 20 cities was 215.09 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 8,859.15 million square meters, up 13.4% year-on-year [19][21] - **Land Market Transactions**: In the last week, 100 major cities saw 101 new residential land supplies and 32 transactions. The average floor price for residential land was 5,539.5 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 2.92% [26] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 2.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.22%. The real estate index lagged behind the CSI 300 by 0.12 percentage points [32][34]

Core Insights - The residential land transfer revenue in 300 cities increased by 12% year-on-year in the first three quarters, despite a decrease in transaction area by 8% [1] - The land market showed signs of cooling in the third quarter, with the average premium rate for residential land dropping to 5.8%, and both transaction area and transfer revenue declining by 13% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1][2] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have seen a focus on land acquisition by real estate companies, but the pace of land supply in core cities has slowed down in the third quarter [1][3] Land Market Trends - The average premium rate for residential land was high in the first quarter at 13.4%, but it decreased to 7.5% in the second quarter and further to 5.8% in the third quarter, indicating a cautious approach from real estate companies [2] - In the third quarter, the average premium rate dropped to 3.8% in September, marking the lowest monthly level of the year [2] High Premium Transactions - In the third quarter, Shanghai saw 19 residential land transactions with a total transfer revenue of 39.72 billion yuan and an average premium rate of 19.7%, with some plots breaking city or regional price records [3] - Shenzhen had 6 residential land transactions, with 5 sold at a premium, totaling 18.08 billion yuan and an average premium rate of 31%, including a record-breaking transaction in the Qianhai area [3] Future Outlook - The overall trend indicates a continued decrease in transaction area, with real estate companies focusing on high-quality land in hot cities, leading to increased transfer revenue year-on-year [3] - The fourth quarter is typically a peak period for land supply, accounting for about 40% of annual supply, with expectations for increased market supply, although market heat will depend on the sustained improvement in new home sales [3]

2025年第41周 Weekly 2025年10月6日-2025年10月12日，第41周土地供求规模均低位下探，土拍热度同样平淡。本周重点城 市供应监测供应土地建筑面积为284万平方米，环比下降23%，成交建筑面积为304万平方米，环比下 降18%。受月初双节影响，优质土地出让频次减少，本周平均溢价率仅为1.12%，降至2025年下半年以 来新低。 供应：本周供应建筑面积为284万平方米，环比下降23%。 一线城市中仅广州挂牌一宗宅地，位于增城区，出 让底价8亿元，起拍楼板价7130元/平方米。重点城市本周供应宅地31幅，平均容积率1.83。 重点供应地块方面，苏州相城区挂牌一宗宅地，地块容积率2.1，出让底价12亿元，起拍楼板价6000元/平方 米。地块自身优势在于周边道路交通便利，紧邻广济北路、凤北公路等主干道，距漕湖人民医院约300米，周 边有北桥中心小学、北桥中学及苏州美高双语学校等教育资源，西侧靠近凤湖路，往南1.5公里可达漕湖湿地 公园，生态环境较好；劣势是目前周边缺乏大型商业综合体，且轨道交通覆盖不足。地块目前周边可比房价2 万元/平方米左右。 成交：本周成交建筑面积304万平方米，环比下降18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concentration of new land value among the top 100 real estate companies remains high, with the top 10 companies accounting for 68% of the new land value, indicating a significant market dominance by leading firms [1][16]. Group 1: Land Market Overview - As of September 25, the total area of commercially traded land reached 6,592 million square meters, reflecting a 50% month-on-month increase and a 2% year-on-year increase. The total transaction amount was 184.9 billion yuan, with an 86% month-on-month increase and a 2% year-on-year increase [19]. - The average premium rate for land transactions fell to 3.2%, the lowest this year, due to a higher proportion of non-hotspot land transactions [15][19]. - The threshold for the top 100 companies in terms of new land value increased by 2% year-on-year, reaching 3.86 billion yuan, while the thresholds for total price and building area also saw increases of 8% [21][22]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The total new land value, total price, and building area for the top 100 companies increased by 33.2%, 53.3%, and 5.4% year-on-year, respectively, with significant contributions from major projects like the redevelopment in Shanghai's Xuhui District [23]. - By the end of September, nearly 50% of the top sales companies had not acquired new land, with only 16 companies surpassing 10 billion yuan in land acquisition [29]. - Central state-owned enterprises accounted for 67% of the total land acquisition amount, indicating a preference for core quality land [28]. Group 3: Sales and Investment Dynamics - The sales-to-land acquisition ratio for the top 100 companies was 0.31, with the top 10 companies achieving a ratio of 0.44, indicating a strong correlation between sales performance and land acquisition among leading firms [24]. - Despite a slight recovery in sales in September, the impact on investment remains weak and delayed, as many companies are cautious and rational in their investment decisions [33]. - The market shows a mixed response to land auctions, with heightened competition for quality plots but reduced interest in ordinary land offerings [33].

Core Insights - The land supply significantly increased in the 39th week of 2025, with a total building area of 6.95 million square meters, representing an 89% week-on-week increase, while transaction volume remained high at 6.48 million square meters, despite a 7% decrease [1][2][3]. Supply Overview - The total building area supplied this week was 6.95 million square meters, marking an 89% increase from the previous week [2]. - In first-tier cities, Beijing listed two residential plots in Changping District with a total base price of 5.41 billion yuan, while Guangzhou offered one residential plot in Panyu District with a base price of 1.1 billion yuan [2]. - Key plots included a low-density high-value plot in Changping District with a starting total price of 2.6 billion yuan and a floor price of 25,000 yuan per square meter, located near significant transportation and ecological resources [2]. Transaction Overview - The total transaction area for the week was 6.48 million square meters, down 7% week-on-week, but the transaction amount reached 35.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase [3]. - The average premium rate for high-quality land transactions remained low at 1.5%, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - In Xiamen, four residential plots were successfully sold for a total of 8.125 billion yuan, all acquired by local state-owned enterprises at base prices, with the average floor price for residential parts being 40,000 yuan per square meter [4]. Key Transactions - In Xiamen, significant transactions included a plot in Siming District sold for 2.22 billion yuan with a floor price of 40,000 yuan per square meter, and another in Huli District sold for 2 billion yuan with the same floor price [10]. - In Chengdu, two plots in the Tianfu New Area were sold for a total of 2.064 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 16.4% and a floor price of 16,300 yuan per square meter [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The land supply continues to decline while transaction volumes have significantly increased, indicating a low overall heat in the land auction market [1][3]. Supply Summary - The total land supply this week was 3.67 million square meters, a decrease of 25% compared to the previous week [2]. - In first-tier cities, only Guangzhou listed one residential land parcel with a starting price of 420 million yuan [2]. - The average plot ratio for the 39 residential land parcels in key cities was 1.73 [2]. - A notable land parcel in Guangzhou's Panyu district was highlighted as a "heritage series" site, with a total area of 44,500 square meters and a low plot ratio of 1.1 [2]. Transaction Summary - The total transaction area this week reached 6.99 million square meters, a substantial increase of 261% week-on-week, with a transaction value of 32.2 billion yuan, up 265% [3]. - The average premium rate for land transactions was 1.5%, which is a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - In Hangzhou, two low-density residential land parcels were sold, with one achieving a premium of 25.5% [4]. Key Land Transactions - The highest-priced residential land this week was in Suzhou's Wujiang district, with a starting price of 1.94 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 1.2 [3]. - In Hangzhou, the land parcel in the Gongshu district was sold for 1.33 billion yuan, with a floor price of 20,490 yuan per square meter [4]. - The surrounding new housing market in the area has shown strong performance, with a sales price of approximately 33,500 yuan per square meter for nearby projects [4].

Core Insights - The land market in Xi'an experienced a concentrated transaction day, with 12 out of 14 planned plots successfully sold, totaling 658.835 acres and generating a transaction amount of 6.109 billion yuan [1][2][16] Group 1: Land Transactions - A total of 12 plots were sold, with 11 sold at the base price and 1 at a slight premium, including 5 commercial plots totaling 148.07 acres and 7 residential/commercial plots totaling 510.765 acres [2][16] - Notable commercial land transactions include a 40.43-acre plot in Yanta District acquired by Future Real Estate Co., which will host the first Sam's Club in Northwest China [3][4][7] - Another significant transaction involved a 69.491-acre commercial plot in the Chanba International Port area, purchased by Shaanxi Renhui Real Estate Development Co. for 305.6 million yuan [7][9] Group 2: Major Developers - Major developers such as China Merchants Shekou, Tiandi Source, and Longxiang actively participated in acquiring residential plots, with China Merchants Shekou's total land acquisition amount in Xi'an exceeding 2.3 billion yuan this year [10][11] - Longxiang secured a 99.138-acre residential plot for 1.1528 billion yuan, while Tiandi Source acquired a 125.377-acre residential plot for 2.015 billion yuan [10][13] Group 3: Market Trends - The overall land market in Xi'an remains less heated compared to first-tier and strong second-tier cities, attributed to cautious developer behavior and a large supply of land [16][17] - The recent land auction results indicate a mixed sentiment, with some expected plots experiencing unexpected failures to sell, particularly in the popular Tuanjie area [16][17]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows mixed signals with a slight increase in land transaction area but a significant rise in average transaction prices [4][6][7] - The top 50 real estate companies have seen a substantial increase in land reserve value, indicating a strategic focus on land acquisition despite a slight decrease in land reserve area [5] Group 1: Land Transaction Data - In the first seven months of 2025, the total land transaction area in 100 cities increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with an average transaction price rising by 24% [4] - The average transaction price for residential land in first-tier cities reached 39,229 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% [4] - In second-tier cities, the average transaction price was 8,336 yuan per square meter, up 19% year-on-year, while in third-tier cities, it was 3,360 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 12.4% increase [4] Group 2: Top 50 Real Estate Companies - From January to August 2025, the top 50 real estate companies added land reserves valued at 625.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.3% [5] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value were China Overseas Land & Investment (66.4 billion yuan), Greentown China (61.5 billion yuan), and Poly Developments (52.8 billion yuan) [5] - The total area of new land reserves for these companies decreased by 2% year-on-year, totaling 42.54 million square meters [5] Group 3: Core 30 Cities Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the core 30 cities recorded a 3% year-on-year increase in land transaction area, with an average transaction price rising by 28% [6] - The total land transaction area in these cities was 62.47 million square meters, with a total transaction value of 731.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.1% year-on-year increase [6] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in these cities was 12.9%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [6] Group 4: Market Share Insights - The core 30 cities accounted for 52% of the total land transaction area and 85% of the total transaction value across 100 cities in the first seven months of 2025 [7] - The average transaction prices in the core 6 cities, core 30 cities, and 100 cities were 25,848 yuan, 11,903 yuan, and 7,391 yuan per square meter, respectively [7]

Group 1 - The land auction market in key cities has shown signs of recovery this year, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in residential land transaction area but a 16% increase in revenue from land sales in the first eight months [1] - In August, the transaction area for residential land in 300 cities was approximately 30 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decline of about 30%, while core cities like Shenzhen and Ningbo successfully auctioned off previously unsold or reserved plots by adjusting land use parameters [1] - The top 100 companies acquired land worth 605.6 billion yuan in the first eight months, marking a 28% year-on-year increase, with state-owned enterprises dominating the top ten land acquirers [1] Group 2 - Local governments are adopting two main strategies in response to industry inventory pressures: a continuous reduction in total land supply and an accelerated optimization of land structure, focusing on high-quality plots in core cities [2] - The land market's core logic indicates that land attributes determine market heat, with funds flowing towards projects with high revenue certainty and quick cash flow recovery [2] - The traditional peak sales season, "Golden September and Silver October," is expected to see an increase in project launches by real estate companies in core cities, potentially boosting market activity [2]