Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term. Next week, as enterprises finish their maintenance and enter the production recovery stage, it will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,015 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 865 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,125 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 155,114 lots, down 1,571 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 36,726 lots, down 2,219 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 24,393 lots, down 8,086 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,003 lots, up 14 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 188,880 tons, down 270 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 28,023 tons, up 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,342 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 217 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.88 Thai baht/kg, down 0.21 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 62.31 Thai baht/kg, down 0.69 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 48.15 days, up 0.73 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 17.34%, down 0.02 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 22.9%, up 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.84%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.83%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 29 to July 5, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping decreased slightly in the northern hemisphere and changed little in the southern hemisphere [2]. - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, up 14,800 tons or 2.40% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 80,700 tons, down 0.62%; the inventory in general trade was 551,400 tons, up 2.85% [2]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, up 4% from May and about 29% from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume was about 533,300 vehicles, up about 6% year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Qingdao port's total inventory slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse reducing inventory and general trade accumulating inventory. Downstream factories have low purchasing enthusiasm, and terminal procurement is mainly on - demand, with shipment volume decreasing month - on - month. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends, with production schedules gradually returning to normal. Some enterprises increased production to meet orders, while a few suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is stable. The production schedule of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises boosts the overall capacity utilization rate. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,200 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,450 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 845 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread of 20 - number rubber is 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,750 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 2,926 hands to 153,314 hands, and the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 2,128 hands to 20,539 hands. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 1,003 to - 18,207, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber decreased by 142 to - 6,004. - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 170 tons to 192,950 tons, and 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 403 tons to 32,659 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,725 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,725 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,307 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 27 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 67.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.93 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 64.69 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 47.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 132.8 US dollars/ton, up 43.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 61.8 US dollars/ton, up 60.8 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 18.68 tons, down 2.93 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 24.87 tons, down 3.29 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong decreased by 0.13 days to 41.74 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong increased by 0.44 days to 46.28 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires decreased by 1.26 million to 11.82 million, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires decreased by 1.24 million to 54.15 million. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 26.97%, up 0.46 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.83%, up 0.18 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.47%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.47%, up 0.36 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From June 15th to June 21st, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, which reduced the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was medium - low, which increased the impact on tapping. - As of June 15th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,400 tons, or 0.23%. Bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%; general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. - As of June 19th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short - term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,750 - 12,350 in the short - term [2][3] - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, rainfall affects the supply of latex, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials. In Hainan, the weather has improved, and rubber tapping and raw material output are gradually recovering. Due to concerns about typhoon weather in the next few days, some processing plants are more eager to grab latex [2] - Last week, the bonded area at Qingdao Port increased in inventory, while the general trade warehouses continued to reduce inventory. The arrival of overseas goods continued to decrease, leading to a continuous decline in the total inbound volume of spot goods in Qingdao. Tire companies mostly made low - price purchases according to their rigid needs, and the improved purchasing sentiment led to the total outbound volume in Qingdao being greater than the inbound volume [2] - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline last week. As the enterprises under maintenance gradually restart, the device output will gradually return to normal. However, the overall order performance of tire enterprises is average, and the inventory reduction rhythm of finished products is slow. To control inventory pressure, some enterprises still have maintenance plans, which will limit the increase in overall capacity utilization [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 13,805 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 885 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 25 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,650 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 168,567 lots, up 145 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 33,615 lots, down 2,675 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19,426 lots, up 3,270 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 3,476 lots, down 41 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 193,220 tons, down 30 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 30,138 tons, up 4,233 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,640 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,560 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 45 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 85 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,143 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was - 12 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.9 baht/kg, up 0.79 baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62.26 baht/kg, up 0.37 baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) was 56 baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 45.2 baht/kg, up 0.3 baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 89.2 US dollars/ton, down 118.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 1 US dollar/ton, up 4 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, down 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, down 32,900 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.47%, down 1.33 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 41.87 days, down 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.84 days, down 0.38 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, down 0.61 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, down 4.27 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.24%, down 2.2 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.91%, down 1.88 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.96%, down 0.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From June 8th to June 14th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, western Thailand, and southwestern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which also had a greater impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67%. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decline of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 0.54%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [2] - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April 2025 and an increase of about 6% from 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting the tapping season. In Yunnan, due to weather interference and the diversion of agricultural latex, raw material supply remains tight. In Hainan, although rubber forests in the western region have mostly started tapping, frequent rain disrupts tapping work, leading to a tight supply of raw materials, and local concentrated latex processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium [2]. - As of June 8, 2025, the bonded inventory of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 0.13 million tons to 8.56 million tons compared to the previous period (20250601), a decline of 1.5%. The general trade inventory in Qingdao continued the destocking pattern. It is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao will continue to decline by about 0.5 million tons in the next period [2]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold approximately 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight 5% decrease from April 2025 and about a 6% increase from 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight 1% year - on - year increase [2]. - The short - term forecast for the ru2509 contract is a fluctuation range of 13,300 - 14,000, and for the nr2507 contract, it is 11,750 - 12,350 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,725 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan increase; the 9 - 1 spread was - 870 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,050 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the 6 - 7 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan decrease [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,675 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 168,422 lots, a decrease of 3,704 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 36,290 lots, a decrease of 2,397 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 22,696 lots, an increase of 1,617 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 3,435 lots, an increase of 1,685 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 193,250 tons, a decrease of 280 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 25,905 tons, an increase of 4,032 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,750 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase; the price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a 10 - US - dollar increase. The price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a 10 - US - dollar increase [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,600 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,520 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,600 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 100 yuan/ton, a 95 - yuan increase; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,073 yuan/ton, a 148 - yuan decrease; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 48 yuan/ton, a 208 - yuan decrease [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.9 Thai baht/kg, a 0.79 - Thai - baht increase; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62.26 Thai baht/kg, a 0.37 - Thai - baht increase. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 44.9 Thai baht/kg, a 0.2 - Thai - baht increase [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 89.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 118.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 1 US dollar/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.47%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, a decrease of 4.39 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 27.43%, a 0.18 - percentage - point increase; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.8%, a 1.78 - percentage - point decrease. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.2%, a 0.82 - percentage - point decrease; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.2%, a 0.81 - percentage - point decrease [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of June 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall was mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, western Thailand, and southwestern Cambodia, increasing the impact on tapping work. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall was mainly in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, also increasing the impact on tapping work [2]. - As of June 8, 2025, the bonded inventory of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 0.13 million tons to 8.56 million tons compared to the previous period (20250601), a decline of 1.5%. The general trade inventory in Qingdao continued the destocking pattern. The inbound rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points. It is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao will continue to decline by about 0.5 million tons in the next period [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term raw material supply of natural rubber is tight. Yunnan's output is limited due to weather, and Hainan's new rubber output is slow to increase. The raw material circulation in the market is tight, and local concentrated latex processing plants maintain the state of premium raw material procurement [2]. - Last week, the bonded and general trade warehouses in Qingdao port reduced their inventories, and the total inventory of spot in Qingdao decreased. The arrival of overseas goods continued to decrease, resulting in a continuous decline in the total inbound volume of spot in Qingdao. Tire enterprises mostly made low - price purchases according to their rigid needs, driving the total outbound volume in Qingdao to be greater than the inbound volume [2]. - The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline in the short term. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13300 - 14000, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11750 - 12350 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 13545 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 11965 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread was - 55 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1580 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 177633 lots, an increase of 173 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 42118 lots, a decrease of 1554 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19818 lots, an increase of 1500 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 649 lots, an increase of 1021 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 193100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 19455 tons, an increase of 604 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 1700 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 1700 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13520 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai rubber was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12221 yuan/ton, an increase of 183 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Prices**: The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 64.11 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.24 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 61.69 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 3.13 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 56 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 44.55 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 4.95 Thai baht [2]. - **Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3 US dollars/ton, an increase of 109 US dollars [2]. - **Import Volumes**: The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 18.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.93 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 24.87 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **开工率**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.8%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.25%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.96 days, a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.22 days, a decrease of 0.78 days [2]. - **Production Volumes**: The monthly production volume of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly production volume of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.93%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 30.26%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.37%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.36%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Rainfall in Southeast Asia**: In the first week of June 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The rainfall in the red areas north of the equator was mainly concentrated in Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the impact on tapping decreased; most areas south of the equator were at a low level, and the impact on tapping decreased [2]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.46 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 million tons, an increase of 0.06%. The bonded area inventory was 9.05 million tons, a decrease of 1.74%; the general trade inventory was 52.41 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points [2]. - **Heavy - Truck Sales**: In May 2025, the sales volume of heavy - trucks in China was about 83,000 (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April, and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - trucks in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, raw material supply is tight due to weather interference; in Hainan, raw material output is slow to increase due to rainy weather. The decline in spot and futures prices has reduced the enthusiasm of local concentrated latex processing plants to purchase raw materials at high prices, leading to a slight decline in the purchase price of rubber latex. Last week, inventories in Qingdao ports decreased. Overseas arrivals continued to decline, causing a continuous drop in the total inbound volume of Qingdao spot. Tire companies' procurement sentiment improved, driving the total outbound volume to exceed the inbound volume. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies decreased last week, and some companies have short - term maintenance plans, so there is still a possibility of a further decline in the short term. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,750 - 12,350 [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 835 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,020 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,635 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 5,828 hands to 177,460 hands; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 4,624 hands to 43,672 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 4,014 to - 21,318; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber increased by 535 to - 1,670. Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 5,190 tons to 193,300 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 18,851 tons, up 1,109 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,420 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 255 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,038 yuan/ton, down 176 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 18 yuan/ton, down 386 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 63.87 Thai baht/kg, down 4.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 64.82 Thai baht/kg, down 1.18 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 56.5 Thai baht/kg, down 4.75 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, down 0.45 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, down 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3 US dollars/ton, up 109 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, down 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, down 32,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.8%, down 0.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.25%, up 0.03 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.96 days, down 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.22 days, down 0.78 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, down 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, down 4.27 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.93%, down 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 31.26%, up 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 25.31%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.31%, up 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 2nd to June 8th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, with less impact on rubber tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall was at a low level, also having less impact on rubber tapping. As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,600 tons, a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.74% to 90,500 tons; general trade inventory increased by 0.38% to 524,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), down 5% from April and up about 6% from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2].

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13450 -810 | 45 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -15 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 11810 15 | -55 -25 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 100 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 183288 | -1139 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 48296 | -1810 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -17304 | 5595 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -2205 | 645 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 198490 | -230 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 17742 13350 | 101 -150 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 14950 | -100 | | ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15235 | 240 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13035 | 180 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -850 | -30 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 0 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2200 | 60 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 149954 | 1634 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 39337 | -3561 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -20448 | -753 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -6637 | -1370 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 200460 | -40 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 75398 15200 | -3428 300 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 1625 ...

有望逐步回升。ru2509合约短线建议在14500-15300区间交易，nr2506合约短线建议在12350-13000区间 交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14815 | 260 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12555 | 270 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -740 | 5 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 65 | 20 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | ...