Report Summary - **Report Date**: November 19, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 12,700 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,440 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,480 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan [2] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,127 lots, up 2,096 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 61,464 lots, up 61 lots [2] - **Net Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,656 lots, up 1,097 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,368 lots, up 450 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 116,060 tons, up 160 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,594 tons, down 101 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 was 10,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 490 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the basis of the main non - standard product of Shanghai rubber contract was - 695 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Rubber Prices**: The market reference price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.22 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai rubber sheet was 56.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2] - **Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 149.6 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars [2] - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire开工率**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - **Tire Inventories**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, up 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.36 days, up 0.31 days [2] - **Tire Output**: The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.92%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.34%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.58%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.57%, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - **Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [2] - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13% [2] - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory Overseas vessel arrivals and warehousing remain at a high level, downstream stocking willingness is low, and new orders are scarce The demand side shows that most semi - steel tire enterprises' device operations are stable with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization, while individual full - steel tire enterprises have maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, which is expected to decline further The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15295 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12345 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The trading volume and net positions of the top 20 in both contracts also have corresponding changes, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increase by 7770 tons to 115900 tons, while the 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 49695 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, and mixed rubber from Thailand and Malaysia, have increased by 50 yuan/ton The prices of butadiene styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical are 10700 yuan/ton and 10500 yuan/ton respectively, with the former increasing by 200 yuan/ton and the latter remaining unchanged The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products, as well as the basis of 20 - number rubber, also have corresponding changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, have different changes The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 are 149.6 dollars/ton and - 5.4 dollars/ton respectively, with increases of 19 dollars/ton and 18 dollars/ton The monthly import volumes of technically classified natural rubber and mixed rubber are 12.26 million tons and 31.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rates of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires are 64.5% and 73.68% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.96 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.01 percentage points The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days and 45.36 days respectively, with increases of 0.35 days and 0.31 days The monthly production volumes of full - steel and semi - steel tires are 13.14 million pieces and 60.25 million pieces respectively, with increases of 110,000 pieces and 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the underlying are 17.46% and 18.43% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.05 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.07 percentage points The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 20.57%, with increases of 0.1 and 0.11 percentage points respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 452,600 tons, a 0.70% increase from the previous period The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons As of November 13, the capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises are 72.99% and 64.29% respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remained at a high level. Factories had sufficient replenishment in the early stage. Most of the outbound shipments from the general - trade warehouse were for the delivery of previous orders. Downstream stocking willingness was low, and new orders were few, so the general - trade inventory continued to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week, most semi - steel tire enterprises had stable device operation with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization. Some all - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will further decline. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,315 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,355 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber 12 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 10 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,129 lots, a decrease of 3,854 lots. The position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 64,475 lots, a decrease of 30,902 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was 586 lots, and that of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was 493 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 108,130 tons, a decrease of 340 tons, and the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 49,695 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The RSS3 theoretical production profit was 19 US dollars/ton, and the STR20 theoretical production profit was 149.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 0.95 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 12.26 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The all - steel tire opening rate was 64.5%, and the semi - steel tire opening rate was 73.68%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.36 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 6,025 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.51%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.36%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option was 20.47%, and that of the at - the - money put option was 20.46% [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 930,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 664,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 9.16 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points. As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while factories were cautious about restocking. The futures market showed a volatile and strengthening pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range. The trading volume of real orders was light [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices are stable, and the region is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of this month. Hainan's weather is favorable for tapping, and local factories are still offering higher prices for raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao ports is still increasing, but the rate has slowed down. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' production capacity utilization rates fluctuated slightly, while some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance plans, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected to decline further next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and the futures market was volatile and strengthening. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range, and real - order trading was light [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of the month, while Hainan's tapping is progressing well. Qingdao's inventory is still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire enterprises may decline further [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.47% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 1.91% week - on - week [9]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85, and the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - grade rubber was - 30 [19]. - As of November 14, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons from last week; the 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - As of November 13, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 798 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg. As of November 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of November 13, the latex price in Yunnan was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, the same as last week [40]. - **Import Volume** - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 59.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 471.72 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [43]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 44.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 6.78 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.60% [47]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [50]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 68.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57 and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 639.08 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,220 in the short - term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory accumulation rate of Qingdao Port has narrowed compared to the previous period. The bonded warehouse shows a slight destocking, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an inventory accumulation state [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - grade rubber contract is 12,165 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - grade rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber is 2,945 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 187 hands to 140,848 hands; the positions of the main 20 - grade rubber contract decreased by 1,340 hands to 69,351 hands [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 885 to - 33,178; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - grade rubber decreased by 708 to - 10,665 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 650 tons to 118,320 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber increased by 2,319 tons to 50,905 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is not provided in a comparable way; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,455 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai market Vietnamese 3L is not provided clearly; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,500 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 560 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 445 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - grade rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,928 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - grade rubber contract is 763 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 58.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, down 43.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, up 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.26 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, up 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, up 0.23 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.36%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.26%, down 0.06 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.03%, down 0.09 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.03%, down 0.09 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [2] - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory is 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory is 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60% [2] - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested, and rubber prices first declined and then rose. The offer price of imported rubber in the market decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market showed a weak oscillation, and the spot offer price of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material prices are basically stable with relatively abundant supplies, while in Hainan, due to limited improvement in precipitation, tapping operations have resumed slowly, with a relatively small total supply of raw materials. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. The bonded warehouse has seen a slight decrease in inventory, while the general trade warehouse has a large increase. Overseas arrivals have increased, and the total inbound volume of warehouses in Qingdao has increased significantly month - on - month. However, tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment and are mostly on the sidelines regarding high - priced raw materials. - This week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production, but it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested this week, with rubber prices first falling and then rising. Imported rubber offers declined, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market was weakly oscillating, and domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted slightly. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has stable raw material prices and abundant supplies, while Hainan has slow recovery in tapping and limited raw material supply. Qingdao Port's total inventory has increased significantly, with a slight decrease in the bonded warehouse and a large increase in the general trade warehouse. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials. The production of domestic tire enterprises is generally stable, but an individual enterprise may have a maintenance plan. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract between 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.6%; the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.67% [13]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 7, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 75, and the spread between 20 - rubber contracts 1 - 2 was - 30 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 118,970 tons, a decrease of 1,930 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 48,586 tons, an increase of 3,931 tons from last week [27]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 6, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of November 6, the 20 - rubber basis was 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 465 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of November 6, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.3) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 51.9 (-1.4) Thai baht/kg. As of November 7, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of November 6, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Import Quantity**: According to customs data, in September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36% [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire exports were 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire exports were 6,390,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [59]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2] 2. Report's Core View - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a significant accumulation trend, with a slight de - stocking in bonded warehouses and a large accumulation in general trade warehouses. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials, leading to an inventory accumulation inflection point. In terms of demand, the production of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, slightly increasing the overall capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,045 yuan/ton (down 75 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread is 195 yuan (up 20 yuan). The closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,130 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), and the 12 - 1 spread is 195 yuan (down 15 yuan). The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 2,915 yuan (unchanged). The trading volume and net positions of the two contracts have changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 280 tons to 119,100 tons, while those of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 504 tons to 48,586 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market and other regions have changed. For example, the price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of Vietnam 3L is 14,950 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 have decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber has also changed [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the market have changed, with the prices of smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber decreasing, while the price of glue remains unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 have decreased. The monthly import volumes of technically - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber have increased by 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons respectively [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have decreased slightly. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have decreased, and the monthly production of all - steel and semi - steel tires has increased by 110,000 and 2.19 million respectively [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset have changed, with the 20 - day volatility decreasing by 1.61 percentage points and the 40 - day volatility increasing by 0.35 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have increased [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase. As of November 2, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 447,700 tons, a 3.57% increase. As of November 6, the capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises have changed [2] 3.7 View Summary - The inventory at Qingdao Port has accumulated, and the demand side has seen a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. The ru2601 and nr2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges [2] 3.8 Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a significant accumulation trend, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a large accumulation in general trade warehouses. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment, so they are more cautious about high - priced raw materials, resulting in a weak purchasing sentiment. The general trade warehouse's出库 is less than expected, leading to an inflection point in the total inventory accumulation in Qingdao. In terms of demand, the domestic tire enterprise capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, and most enterprises will maintain the current production schedule in the short term. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,875 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 11,960 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract are 140,178 lots, up 1,385 lots; the positions of the main 20 - rubber contract are 62,961 lots, up 35,217 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 29,182 lots, up 992 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - rubber are - 11,000 lots, down 778 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 120,080 tons, down 550 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber are 46,571 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 325 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,004 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 1,044 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup - lump of Thai raw rubber is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 174.4 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, down 44.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.34%, down 0.24 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.41%, down 0.26 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.01 days, down 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 44.82 days, down 0.44 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.01%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.68%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.32%, up 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.32%, up 0.24 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, an increase of 3.57%. The bonded area inventory is 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory is 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36%. As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market rebounded but then fell back. Imported rubber market offers rose, while domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted slightly following the market. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and maintained a rigid demand replenishment rhythm [8]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the dry content of latex decreased rapidly due to large temperature differences between day and night, and the purchase price of processing plants remained stable. In Hainan, rainfall affected tapping operations, resulting in limited raw material availability for local rubber processing plants. The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction, but the reduction rate in general trade warehouses has narrowed [8]. - Overseas standard rubber arrivals at Qingdao continued to decline, leading to a slight reduction in bonded warehouse inventory. Mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing increased as expected, but tire factories' purchases were mostly on a wait - and - see basis. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,250, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market rebounded but then fell back. Imported rubber offers rose, and domestic spot offers adjusted slightly. Downstream buyers had a wait - and - see attitude and replenished based on rigid demand [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Global tapping season continues. Yunnan has temperature - related issues, and Hainan has rainfall problems. Qingdao Port inventory is decreasing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are decreasing, and mixed rubber arrivals are increasing. Tire factory capacity utilization decreased slightly and is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,800 - 15,250, and the nr2601 contract between 12,000 - 12,500 [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 1.63% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber fell by 2.2% week - on - week [13]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber [14][16]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 31, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 70, and the spread between 20 - number rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 121,670 tons, a decrease of 2,350 tons from last week; 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, an increase of 2,217 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of October 30, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Number Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of October 30, the 20 - number rubber basis was 746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of October 30, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 53.3 (+0.9) Thai baht/kg. As of October 31, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 6.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 44.4 US dollars/ton from last week [38]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of October 30, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [44]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18% [48]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 7.61 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 6.15 percentage points year - on - year [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Trucks)**: In September 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market showed a trend of rising first and then falling under the combined influence of fundamentals and macro - sentiment. In the first half, strong raw material prices, continuous inventory reduction, and positive macro - expectations supported the rise of rubber prices; in the second half, after the macro - positive factors materialized, the market sentiment turned cautious, and rubber prices declined. In the future, heavy rainfall in major producing areas will limit rubber tapping, and raw material prices are expected to remain firm. On the demand side, tire companies still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are under - performing. Some companies plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. Overall, raw material prices will provide short - term support, but there is a lack of substantial positive factors on the demand side. Therefore, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate next week [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price Data - As of October 30, the mainstream price of domestic full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. The US dollar price of Thai - produced 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [3] Main - producing Countries' Rubber Output and China's Natural Rubber Imports - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of ANRPC member countries' natural rubber output and China's natural rubber imports are presented [10][11][12] Tire Output - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of tire output are presented [13][14] Tire Enterprise Operating Rates - This week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. Some enterprises suspended or restricted production this week, dragging down the operating rate [3] Tire Enterprise Inventories - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of the number of days of available inventory in semi - steel and full - steel tire factories in Shandong are presented [20][21][22] Natural Rubber Inventories - As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.0389 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, a decline of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.2%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18% [3]